Vuelta a Espana - who's going to win?

[auscyclefan94]

I doubt Gesink will win, he is not yet good enough.

Agreed. I think he needs another year before he canreally start challenging for overall but he is an exciting prospect. TT Valencia should be interesting. i wonder how schleck will go as he has been very quiet. i think he will drop out if he doesn't do much in the tt or the next 2 mountain stages.

 

[powderpuff]

i wonder how schleck will go as he has been very quiet. i think he will drop out if he doesn't do much in the tt or the next 2 mountain stages.

Abandoned at 88km in to stage 8

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

GC WATCH

1. Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence-Lotto
2. Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne +2
3. Samuel Sánchez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi +8
4. Tom Danielson (USA) Garmin-Slipstream +13
5. Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank +29
6. Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas +46

I can see these guys being the main selection this vuelta (however I don't expect TD to be up there for too much longer). I expect Valverde to take the lead on tomorrow's stage (which looks like an epic last 10 kms).

 

[BroDeal]

GC WATCH

1. Cadel Evans (Aus) Silence-Lotto
2. Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne +2
3. Samuel Sánchez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi +8
4. Tom Danielson (USA) Garmin-Slipstream +13
5. Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank +29
6. Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas +46

I can see these guys being the main selection this vuelta (however I don't expect TD to be up there for too much longer). I expect Valverde to take the lead on tomorrow's stage (which looks like an epic last 10 kms).

Yeah, I have a hard time seeing how a fragile rider like TD can hold out for the entire three weeks in a GT this hard. The advantage is with Evans and Basso for consistency. Valverde is suspect in that department. Sanchez and Gesink are unknown, but Gesink's age works against him.

I am still betting on Basso to slowly rise to the top.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Yeah, I have a hard time seeing how a fragile rider like TD can hold out for the entire three weeks in a GT this hard. The advantage is with Evans and Basso for consistency. Valverde is suspect in that department. Sanchez and Gesink are unknown, but Gesink's age works against him.

I am still betting on Basso to slowly rise to the top.

I agree pretty much with all the above, if valv. doesn't have his bad day he will surely win. Gesink might still be too young to win, but could very well podium in my opinion. He is gonna be such a great GC rider in years to come, for his age he is brilliant.

 

[Bala Verde]

Evans is usually rock solid. If his form stays the same, he could be a real threat. Nonetheless, there is only one, short TT were he can take time.

Valverde is the better uphill sprinter and could take back time at the finishline by beating Evans. He usually has a day where he loses time in the mountains. Consistency?

Sanchez finished before Valverde in the 2008 Tdf, should not lose too much time in the TT and has an acceleration to attack in the mountains in the last 2-3K. I think he could be doing better than Valverde.

Basso proved in the Giro this year, that he is Steady Eddy as well. The problem is, I don't know where he will take time. He usually surfaces because others fade. Could he do something on the long climb to Sierra Nevada? His team today consisted of Szmyd only, no Kreuziger. How will he make his team set the pace to atrition, if it's only him and Szmyd?

 

[samb01]

My money is on Sanches. I suspect his 'professional preparation' will make the difference in the second half of the race.

 

[issoisso]

Igor Antón by far the biggest disappointment. nearly half an hour behind.

 

[Walshworld]

Sanchez, because Valverde is a felon.

I'd love to see Danielson on the podium. The man has had a few rough years with illness and crashes and a general lack of confidence. But I think Vaughters has him believing again.

That said, I'd put my money on Sanchez. I can't stand Valverde-- he's a doper who shouldn't even be racing.

I'm blogging the Vuelta with a comedy edge at: http://walshworld.wordpress.com/

 

[blaxland]

lots can still and will happen,i guess its better to be in the lead than to have to make time up,even if its only the first day in the mountains...

 

[wpsracing78]

Igor Antón by far the biggest disappointment. nearly half an hour behind.

I have lost all faith in Igor - GC wise (in everything)- but wait for a stage win in the mountains...

He was terrible all the time in the TDF, then finished like 12th on Verbier, then was rubbish for 1 week, then had another top 20. He is annoying!

 

[Czerstwy Witold]

I'd love to see Danielson on the podium. The man has had a few rough years with illness and crashes and a general lack of confidence. But I think Vaughters has him believing again.

That said, I'd put my money on Sanchez. I can't stand Valverde-- he's a doper who shouldn't even be racing.

I'm blogging the Vuelta with a comedy edge at: http://walshworld.wordpress.com/

So Basso, Boonen, Vinokourov, Millar are just...normal guys?

 

[ak-zaaf]

So Basso, Boonen, Vinokourov, Millar are just...normal guys?

now now.

basso didn't dope, he just intended to. he said so himself.
someone put cocaine in boonens drink...8 times a night on several occasions. not tommekes fault.
vino never doped, just ask him.
and millar, well he's just an a-hole. ;D

 

[Czerstwy Witold]

now now.

basso didn't dope, he just intended to. he said so himself.
someone put cocaine in boonens drink...8 times a night on several occasions. not tommekes fault.
vino never doped, just ask him.
and millar, well he's just an a-hole. ;D

And O.J.Simpson never killed his ex-wife, just ask him...be serious. If Basso didn't dope-Valverde neither.

 

[ak-zaaf]

And O.J.Simpson never killed his ex-wife, just ask him...be serious. If Basso didn't dope-Valverde neither.

the glove didn't fit.

/s

 

[issoisso]

Interesting fact: in 12 seasons as a pro, this is Roger Hammond's first GT

 

[ak-zaaf]

Interesting fact: in 12 seasons as a pro, this is Roger Hammond's first GT

Talked to him in Assen. Very nice guy.

BTW, I heard this is Cuesta's 16th consecutive vuelta.
If that's so that must be a record. I know Zoetemelk did 16 Tour de Frances, but not consecutive.
Any confirmation?

 

[issoisso]

After digging through archives I can confirm the last Cuesta-less Vuelta was in 1993. Yikes.

 

[auscyclefan94]

This is my assesment of the top 6 riders and their chances of winning the race:
1. Alejandro Valverde - will need to attack during next 2 days to get a buffer before the tt. Has got a strong team to ride on the front but will his team get tired on the last 3-4 days if he keeps the lead over La Pandera. Stage 15, 18 and 19 are possible stages where he could be attacked on. He has got a quality team on his side but will Alejandro avoid the day he always has where he bonks? Will have to wait and see.

2. Cadel Evans - the best possible scenario for Cadel is take the lead in the final tt so his team doesn't have to defend over a whole week. Must keep himself within 30 seconds over Valverde so if it comes down to the tt he will be in striking distance. He is the strongest time trialist of the gc boys so that could work to his adavantage but the final tt is only 27km long. Cadel must just stay with the favourites on Sierra Nevada and don't lose time because if he attacks and gets the jersey his team may struggle to defend it. If he is going to attack, he should wait for La Pandera so his team has to defend over a smaller period of time. He has stayed out of trouble without making a big effort yet.

3. Robert Gesink -probably the best climber in the race at the moment. He must get some time on his rivals before the time trial so he has to attack. Though Robert should wait for la Pandera because he will need to conserve as much energy as he can because he's only 23 and could bonk if he goes too hard. He will be marked a lot more now as the other gc guys see him as a much bigger threat after the Alto de Velifique.

4.Tom Danielson - the big surprise of the vuelta so far but how he will go in the last week and the next 2 mountain stages is a mystery. So far he has looked sprightly on the climbs by responding to some of the attacks. He can tt but will his form peak or fade away. He will need to attack over the next 2 stages to make up some time.

5.Ivan Basso - basso has been relatively quite with his usual grinding away pedalling style. Basso needs to attack over the next 2 stages as his time trialling isn't great. basso being quiet may be a plan on liquigas' part to make one big attack to take back the time. He has stayed out of trouble but has the job ahead of him to make back the 53 seconds he has lost.

6. Samuel Sanchez - the daredevil descender and pre race favourite hasn't had the perfect vuelta though he is a strong tt and a great descender. he should try on la pandera though he still has some other stages to get back the time. St19 looks like a stage were he could get some time back. Cat 1 finishes 17km before the finish with a descent down to the finsish line.This stage is made for him.

Everyone else is too far behind to have a crack at la vuelta.

My Prediction
1.Valverde
2.Evans
3.Sanchez
4.Gesink
5.Basso
6.Danielson

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Gesink in a good postion to get his first GT podium. nice feat.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Gesink in a good postion to get his first GT podium. nice feat.

I'm going for gesink now evans had the unfortunate mechanical and is a minute 20 behind. Go Robert!

 

[cyclingmad]

how things have changed

Gesink in a good postion to get his first GT podium. nice feat.

Gesink for 3rd IMO now. The race is now between Valverde and Sanchez. Sanchez performance on Saturday was outstanding coming back after cracking on the steep sections. Wheel leech managed to get a drag for a while before he was blown away totally on the top part of the climb.

Although Valverde looks to have the race to lose he sometimes does have a shocker. Sanchez is only just over a minute down and the best TT in the top 6. He took 17 secs out of Valverde in the first TT and seems to get stronger as the race goes on. Within 30 secs he has a chance over 27 secs. There are a couple more chances with a good move which he is capable of

Gesink lost over a minute to Sanchez in the first TT so needs to pull out more time. Other than Sanchez Gesinks only threat from behind in the TT is Evans who is a poorer Time Trialist than Sanchez and much further back.

 

[Ripper]

Hi all, new here.

I like the looks of Sammy San. He is not too far back, there is 1 (possibly 2) stages that benefit guys who can drop like a rock on a mountain, as well as 1 more TT. Sammy San seems to get stronger as a GT moves on (compared to, say, Valverde or Evans), and he can TT and descend faster than Valverde.

I could be way off, but I am thinking this final week will have more fireworks than guessed at (um, not from Evans though).

 

[auscyclefan94]

Gesink for 3rd IMO now. The race is now between Valverde and Sanchez. Sanchez performance on Saturday was outstanding coming back after cracking on the steep sections. Wheel leech managed to get a drag for a while before he was blown away totally on the top part of the climb.

Although Valverde looks to have the race to lose he sometimes does have a shocker. Sanchez is only just over a minute down and the best TT in the top 6. He took 17 secs out of Valverde in the first TT and seems to get stronger as the race goes on. Within 30 secs he has a chance over 27 secs. There are a couple more chances with a good move which he is capable of

Gesink lost over a minute to Sanchez in the first TT so needs to pull out more time. Other than Sanchez Gesinks only threat from behind in the TT is Evans who is a poorer Time Trialist than Sanchez and much further back.

Sanchez does look the goods as well but he must be agressive and others also need to be agressive.On most courses Sanchez is a worse tt compared to evans even though sanchez beat evans on the valencia tt

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Why do people like Cyclingmad invent stuf?

Gesink did NOT lose over a minute to Sanchez, in fact, he lost 45 seconds to Sanchez, and 30 to Evans/Valverde. He even won time on Basso/Mosquera

Stop seeing Gesink as a bad time trialist. What's more, the second time trial is not dead flat but hilly. And Gesink top ten' even top 5'ed in hilly tt's of 20/30km...

Pay attention to my posts for once