Vuelta a Espana - who's going to win?

[Big_Blue_Dave]

To win the Vuelta will probably be Valverde, though I don't want him to. I'd like to see Mosquera win though i'm afraid his team is not strong enough this year. For the sprints this year it will be between Boonen, Farrar, Bennati and Friere. I hope Kessiakoff and Martin ride well and are given their chances to shine and the racing is more exciting than most of the TdF.

 

[Cerberus]

According to cyclingnews.com Tom Danielson is one of the favourites for the overall win.
Sánchez, Alejandro Valverde (Caisse d'Epargne), Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto), Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank), Tom Danielson (Garmin-Slipstream) and Ivan Basso (Liquigas) are favourites for the overall win.
What about Mosquera and Gesink for instance. Oh, sorry, they don't speak english.

Velonews also has some odd (read Anglocentric) selections with Chris Horner ranking higher than Gesink and Tom Dannielsen just after on a top ten list that doesn't mention for example Frank Schleck, Kreuziger, Vinokourov, Fuglsang (granted my Daniocentric bias might be showing here) or any other number of riders more likely to win than those two.

http://velonews.com/article/97175/who-can-win-the-2009-vuelta-a-espana

 

[cyclingmad]

Evans

One rider who will definitely not win the Vuelta is Evans.
The most interesting thing about listing him in the favourites is that I dont think he has ever won a major race. Apart from a TT in the 2007 where Vino got disqualified and Kloden fell off has he ever won any major race?
If I were in his team I would hate having him as team leader how can you bury yourself for a guy that can never finish the job.

 

[auscyclefan94]

One rider who will definitely not win the Vuelta is Evans.
The most interesting thing about listing him in the favourites is that I dont think he has ever won a major race. Apart from a TT in the 2007 where Vino got disqualified and Kloden fell off has he ever won any major race?
If I were in his team I would hate having him as team leader how can you bury yourself for a guy that can never finish the job.

Wrong. One person who will never win a GT is Valverde as he is a choker.

When you lose at tdf by 23secs with little help at all, you have the ability to win the tdf. Being a stage racer is being ever consistent and not nessercarily winning 6 stages.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

both valverde and evans are capable of winning a GT. According to form however, Valverde is much more likely at this year's vuelta. IMO evans blew his best chances of wnning a GT. (that being said, if he based his season on the giro or vuelta next season, im sure he could take the honours)

According to cyclingnews.com Tom Danielson is one of the favourites for the overall win.
Sánchez, Alejandro Valverde (Caisse d'Epargne), Cadel Evans (Silence-Lotto), Andy Schleck (Saxo Bank), Tom Danielson (Garmin-Slipstream) and Ivan Basso (Liquigas) are favourites for the overall win.
What about Mosquera and Gesink for instance. Oh, sorry, they don't speak english.

cycling news is terrible at times. In many articles leading up to the vuelta they mention TD as a big favorite, and not even a mention of gesink (who was just 1 place shy on his debut, of equaling TD's personal best GT performance.. since then has done nothing as well)

 

[cyclingmad]

Valverde

Wrong. One person who will never win a GT is Valverde as he is a choker.

When you lose at tdf by 23secs with little help at all, you have the ability to win the tdf. Being a stage racer is being ever consistent and not nessercarily winning 6 stages.

I agree with you about Valverde and grand tours always chokes under pressure and makes a mistake like missing the split last year. My comment about Evans is also true he also chokes under pressure like 08 tour.

Unlike Valverde Evans never actually wins any races or stages so for that reason I would be surprised if any strong team will take him on as a team leader next year.

 

[Mellow Velo]

If Valverde and Evans are chokers, I wonder what that makes Tom Danielson?
Much as I like Chris Horner's selfless riding, only this year, at Astana, has his name and the word "contender", been used in the same sentence.
Amazing really, at his extreme age.
His best season was for Saunier Duval, (yes them) back in 2006.....

 

[Cerberus]

If Valverde and Evans are chokers, I wonder what that makes Tom Danielson?
Much as I like Chris Horner's selfless riding, only this year, at Astana, has his name and the word "contender", been used in the same sentence.
Amazing really, at his extreme age.
His best season was for Saunier Duval, (yes them) back in 2006.....

According to Wikipedia he rode for Davitamon-Lotto in 2006, He only rode for Saunier Duval in 2005. Otherwise, I don't see how anyone can be considered a contender at 37 who has never to my knowledge (Wikipedia again) delivered a major result in a Grand Tour.

 

[Mellow Velo]

2005, then. Tour of Switzerland etc. My mistake. Even longer ago...

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

According to Wikipedia he rode for Davitamon-Lotto in 2006, He only rode for Saunier Duval in 2005. Otherwise, I don't see how anyone can be considered a contender at 37 who has never to my knowledge (Wikipedia again) delivered a major result in a Grand Tour.

LA (not a fanboy, dont even like the guy) tour 09?

 

[Cerberus]

LA (not a fanboy, dont even like the guy) tour 09?

I said "who has never delivered a major result in a Grand Tour." LA is one of the very best Grand Tour riders ever in the history of cycling (not a fanboy either, but that is a fact). Chris Horner is no Lance Armstrong.

 

[issoisso]

Too bad Petersen had to be replaced. I was looking forward to see what he could do

 

[Zoncolan]

1. Basso
2. Valverde
3. Gesink

First good TT for Basso since his comeback. Will be even stronger in the mountains. Valverde will, as usual, have one poor day and lose the race.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I agree with you about Valverde and grand tours always chokes under pressure and makes a mistake like missing the split last year. My comment about Evans is also true he also chokes under pressure like 08 tour.

Unlike Valverde Evans never actually wins any races or stages so for that reason I would be surprised if any strong team will take him on as a team leader next year.

I don't want to be seen as making excuses for evans but in the 08 tour he did have a bad crash, little support and was up against 3 csc boys. You've got no chance winning in that situation. coming in 58 secs behind is quite a strong effort. I wouldn't say he choked at all in 08 tour.

 

[cyclingmad]

choker

I don't want to be seen as making excuses for evans but in the 08 tour he did have a bad crash, little support and was up against 3 csc boys. You've got no chance winning in that situation. coming in 58 secs behind is quite a strong effort. I wouldn't say he choked at all in 08 tour.

What about hiring a bodyguard avoiding the media and "stand on my dog and I will chop your head off" sounds like a guy handling the pressure well.
Evans couldn't cope with the pressure because he isn't used to winning and doesn't believe in himself. I feel sorry for him cause he has been criticised so much. But he has lost and been outsmarted by Valverde in both of the last two Dauphines. He doesn't know which attacks to respond to and cannot find a way to put any pressure on his rivals leaving him under a lot of pressure on his time trial which often lets him down when he needs it.

In the Vuelta in 2007 he was lost once Menchov beat him in the TT and then lost out to the aggressions of Sastre in the same race. Sastre then outsmarted him again in Tour in 2008. Evans pressure comes from not believing in himself as well like at the tour this year saying other teams should team up against Astana the voice of a man lost.

 

[lookkg386]

1. Basso
2. Valverde
3. Gesink

First good TT for Basso since his comeback. Will be even stronger in the mountains. Valverde will, as usual, have one poor day and lose the race.

Agree with Basso, know it's early but really looks strong and focused. I believe that being a bit fresher come the third GT of the year will help him above some others.

 

[auscyclefan94]

What about hiring a bodyguard avoiding the media and "stand on my dog and I will chop your head off" sounds like a guy handling the pressure well.
Evans couldn't cope with the pressure because he isn't used to winning and doesn't believe in himself. I feel sorry for him cause he has been criticised so much. But he has lost and been outsmarted by Valverde in both of the last two Dauphines. He doesn't know which attacks to respond to and cannot find a way to put any pressure on his rivals leaving him under a lot of pressure on his time trial which often lets him down when he needs it.

In the Vuelta in 2007 he was lost once Menchov beat him in the TT and then lost out to the aggressions of Sastre in the same race. Sastre then outsmarted him again in Tour in 2008. Evans pressure comes from not believing in himself as well like at the tour this year saying other teams should team up against Astana the voice of a man lost.

The chop my head off incident was a bit of tongue and cheek. he was laughing while he was saying it.Menchov and Sastre both rode smarter and stronger than evans. that's why they beat him. They both had dissapointing years in 2007 and had a lot more to prove than evans.

 

[mambo#5]

what else is new? Looks like Horner went down hard. and it's probably over for him yet again.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

he'll crash before the finish though.

Good call, unfortunately. Though it looks like he is not definitely out, though lost 8 minutes today.

 

[mambo#5]

Good call, unfortunately. Though it looks like he is not definitely out, though lost 8 minutes today.

don't meant to jinx him, but he's been all too predictable this year. I believe he needs ritalin or something to keep him focused. He even blogs about how he gets bored when he is in the middle of the peloton.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

don't meant to jinx him, but he's been all too predictable this year. I believe he needs ritalin or something to keep him focused. He even blogs about how he gets bored when he is in the middle of the peloton.

Yeah, it's like listening to an alcoholic complain about his own drinking.

So, he's out with a broken wrist. Bummer all around.

 

[thehog]

http://blog.oregonlive.com/horner/2009/08/tour_of_spain_diary_ready_to_c.html

Horner now has asthma..... convenient.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Bring on stage's 7 - 9

saturday cannot come quick enough

 

[cyclingfan7]

i doubt Gesink will win. he is not good enough yet.

 

[cyclingfan7]

Heart says Gesink, Mind says Valverde.

Sanchez will be right up there too, and I personally hope basso gets a podium.

Vino for a stage win (maybe 2, would like to see him win out side a TT)

I doubt Gesink will win, he is not yet good enough.