Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 4: Plasencia - Pico Villuercas, 170.4k

[Devil's Elbow]

The Vuelta starts in earnest with the most wide-open first mountain stage of a GT in a long time… and it’s a pretty hard mountain too.

Plasencia is right on the edge of the Sistema Central, which means we’re getting a hard start to the day. With an early red jersey potentially up for grabs, there will be a lot of climbers looking to take advantage of Puerto de Cabezabellosa. And perhaps, there will be riders thinking of Javalambre…

There is no respite after that, with Alto de Piornal up next. It’s the first 14.2k of the profile below. This is where the last big Robert Gesink heartbreak happened - and Evenepoel won - in 2022.

Things calm down after that, with only Puerto de Miravete and its rather pointless bonus seconds to break up the flat.

After the intermediate sprint, it’s showdown time. Pico Villuercas was introduced to the race in 2021, but unlike that stage the MTF is from the hardest side this time. It is a climb in three parts: 13 kilometres at 3.6% to soften the legs, the three-kilometre brutal concrete ramp averaging 13.6% used mid-stage in that 2021 stage, then the final 2.2 kilometres, identical to the 2021 MTF, at an irregular 5.9%. The finish is in the same place, 300 metres before the end of the profile below (to clear up any possible confusion: they moved the stage finish down here from the actual summit in 2021 after the stage profile had already been published).

 

[Samamba]

First of many mountain stages that will go to the break. Hard start won't be controllable. I expect a strong break and some chaos cause it will have some maybe GC riders in it. Sadly we won't be able to see it.

 

[Lequack]

Rampas inhumanas

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Rampas inhumanas

Shows least inhumana road and profile in the background

 

[Samu Cuenca]

We didn't get to see Villuercas in this year's Vuelta Extremadura Féminas due to bad weather, but that fortunately won't be the case here, unless a forest fire suddenly breaks out or something.

Maté and/or Ruiz might end up in the break again, but this time they should be joined by riders from other teams. We probably won't know who'll win the race after the stage, but we might find out who definitely won't.

 

[Sciatic]

I don’t think any of teams can, or would want to, try to control the racing for the entire stage, but if the gap isn’t too massive to the break then I can see teams—perhaps Visma, EF—to work to pull the break back to set up their climbers. BORA and UAE will just let things play out and it lines up well for their GC climbers.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Adam and Almeida to rock-paper-scissors who finishes the best of the GC riders.

 

[hayneplane]

I have a hard time seeing a break winning as who will be strong enough to stay clear on the final 6kms and also not be considered too big a threat long term on GC?

With around 25 potential podium contenders I think we will see an element of control and then all sussing each outer putt rather than risking big energy going in a long range break in such heat before they know they don’t have the form to contend for top 5 GC.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Nairoman for the win! Heh...

 

[hfer07]

as some folks pointed out, The Stage win depends on how aggressive UAE chooses to ride in order to setup Adam & Almeida for an attack to gain them time against Roglic

 

[Tricycle Rider]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAofFHPRZTE

 

[KZD]

I think the breakaway does have a good chance here, question is if a team like Bora will allow a rider like Del Toro to get there. I will go with Valentin Paret-Peintre for the stage and I expect Roglic and Yates to be the strongest among the GC riders.

 

[Remy55]

If a strong breakaway goes, Bora should have Vlasov, Martinez or Lipo in it.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

If a strong breakaway goes, Bora should have Vlasov, Martinez or Lipo in it.

If one of them is in it, it doesn't go.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Can Chris Hamilton finally win his first stage?

 

[Peyroteo94]

Adam and Almeida to rock-paper-scissors who finishes the best of the GC riders.

Almeida will struggle there. He is not feeling well and he can't handle this type of climb

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Important to nkt they dont go all the way to the top, so the final 200m isnt that 18% ramp in the profile

They actually stop 300m before the end of this profile, just before the penultimate black bar (as I mentioned in the OP), as the APM one (unlike the others that can be found online) includes the bonus ramp to the helipad.

 

[ice&fire]

Almeida will struggle there. He is not feeling well and he can't handle this type of climb

And the climb is too short to yoyo his way back to the front

 

[solo80k]

I hope we'll see some guy wolf getting the win. Fingers crossed for Lipowitz/Tiberi/Del Toro taking this stage.

 

[Rob5091]

He's 40 but he's also your KOM jersey holder - Luis Angel Mate
https://www.lavuelta.es/en/news/2024/stage-3/mate-ill-fight-for-this-jersey-every-day/41522
"For me, it's a moral obligation to be in the breakaway as long as I have the strength, so if that's the case, I'll fight for it every day."

 

[SHAD0W93]

Almeida will struggle there. He is not feeling well and he can't handle this type of climb

And the climb is too short to yoyo his way back to the front

Can’t yo-yo when you’re in the lead.

 

[Rob5091]

Lots of interesting things to watch out for today - who'll be in the break, how will team Visma and team UAE do? Who'll do the chasing, what's Roglic's form or Carapaz? We'll know a lot of about who is a contender by the end of the day.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Looks like it will be a nice warm day. 38 degC. Or 100 in old money

 

[Ilmaestro99]

We probably won't know who'll win the race after the stage, but we might find out who definitely won't.

Oh my god

 

[yaco]

There is no way that any perceived GC rider will be allowed into the break today.