Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco 2015 (6-11 april)

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Maybe they'll switch at the foot of the climb?

But yeah, nobody is going to ride up Aia with a TT bike.

 

[slosada]

Yes, bike change at 11Km

 

[Bushman]

Imagine what Spilak could have done had their been rain and bad weather as usual.

 

[johnymax]

Really difficult to predict tomorrow's TT. How does the first part look like. Is it a technical descent with a lot of turns or is more for specialists? Does anybody know?

Anyway with the kind of shape Henao has right know, I think he is the favourite. It will be difficult for Špilak to take 22s back. Quintana is a big question mark for me. He doesn't look in superb form, but he did such a strong ride in the TT 2 years ago, I almost expect the same tomorrow. For Purito I think it depends a lot on the first part. If it's a technical descent he has a chance. Yates should lose some time but he looks incredibly strong. Top5 should be his goal and that would be amazing. Scarponi is the forgotten one. Nobody mentions him. He's been doing great but I would be very surprised if he takes the win. Then there are 2 super domestiques in Izagirre and Zakarin. Both have been amazing so far in this race and both are actually good TTers. They have done a lot of work for their teams and even though I expect a good TT by them, I don't see them as winners in the end. The others are too far back to take the victory imo unless someone does a ride of his life, so you never know.

 

[luckyboy]

Re:

Really difficult to predict tomorrow's TT. How does the first part look like. Is it a technical descent with a lot of turns or is more for specialists? Does anybody know?

It's exactly the same as the final kms of today's stage - from the descent of the first time up Aia to the end.

 

[johnymax]

Re:

Imagine what Spilak could have done had their been rain and bad weather as usual.

See this is the proof he can perform well also in normal weather, it's just the highest summer temperatures that he suffers the most with. I actually think he is holding back a little for team purposes because he looks incredibly strong to me. And to think that the short steep climbs doesn't suit him. I d like to see him on the longer Romandie climbs or Giro even better.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Judging from their time trial results it's a 50-50 between Rodriguez and Henao. Question is if Spilak can pull off another great time trial and close more than 22 seconds. Quintana at 12" won't take any seconds, I think.
Yates is a question mark

 

[johnymax]

Re: Re:

Really difficult to predict tomorrow's TT. How does the first part look like. Is it a technical descent with a lot of turns or is more for specialists? Does anybody know?

It's exactly the same as the final kms of today's stage - from the descent of the first time up Aia to the end.

Ah I see, thank you.

 

[luckyboy]

Re: Re:

Lol, check your facts. There are only three TT'es where they both were in good form and rode for a GC. Purito rode two faster, and they rode a equal time in the other TT

Giro 2012 last TT - Purito 26th/Henao 30th, difference + 15 seconds
Tirreno 2013 last TT - Henao 33th/Purito 35th - same time
Pais Vasco 2012, last TT - Purito 6th/Henao 32th, difference + 53 seconds

2012 - when Rodriguez was three years younger than he is now and Henao was a neo-pro right? And those races when Henao had a lot less to ride hard for?


2012 Giro final TT when Rodriguez was desperately riding to hold on to first place in GC and Henao was just riding for places around the top ten at the very end of his first ever Grand Tour

2012 Pais Vasco where Rodriguez was desperately riding to hold on to first place in GC and Henao was just riding for places around the top ten

2013 Tirreno where Rodriguez was trying to hold on to the podium and Henao was just riding for places around the top ten

 

[AlexNYC]

I don't know if he's a better or worse TTer than Purito, but Henao has been a poor TTer in his career, even in hilly terrain.

Nairo is an enigma IMO. He has had both good and bad hilly TTs in the past.

I don't know how good a TTer Yates is, so not sure.

The next one up is Spilak, who I think has a good chance tomorrow.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

There should be a rule, TT bikes in TTs, just so we can see somebody take on Aia on a TT bike. That would be true insanity.

Zakarin, Izagirre and van Garderen are all still in with outside shots at the podium as well as those mentioned above, you know. Izagirre will be motivated and looks to be peaking for this race; Zakarin is goodish against the clock, and Tejay's pedigree is well known. Sure, they may have done more work than many because of attacking and or domestiquing, but País Vasco TTs are always a bit out there. Don't be surprised if Adam Yates takes the overall. Short-to-mid length climbs that are steep seem to be his forte, and there are many, many of those in País Vasco, so racing in this region looks good for him. I certainly wouldn't expect him to win, but given the time gaps and the sometimes topsy-turvy results in EHI time trials it wouldn't shock me at all.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

There should be a rule, TT bikes in TTs, just so we can see somebody take on Aia on a TT bike. That would be true insanity.

Zakarin, Izagirre and van Garderen are all still in with outside shots at the podium as well as those mentioned above, you know. Izagirre will be motivated and looks to be peaking for this race; Zakarin is goodish against the clock, and Tejay's pedigree is well known. Sure, they may have done more work than many because of attacking and or domestiquing, but País Vasco TTs are always a bit out there. Don't be surprised if Adam Yates takes the overall. Short-to-mid length climbs that are steep seem to be his forte, and there are many, many of those in País Vasco, so racing in this region looks good for him. I certainly wouldn't expect him to win, but given the time gaps and the sometimes topsy-turvy results in EHI time trials it wouldn't shock me at all.

Yes, he'll reenter the race just in time to take the overall.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I don't know if he's a better or worse TTer than Purito, but Henao has been a poor TTer in his career, even in hilly terrain.

Nairo is an enigma IMO. He has had both good and bad hilly TTs in the past.

I don't know how good a TTer Yates is, so not sure.

The next one up is Spilak, who I think has a good chance tomorrow.

I don't think Nairo has had a bad hilly TT. The only TT that he has not been so good are the flat pancake ones, or windy flat TT. I don't really remember one bad hilly TT from him.

 

[AlexNYC]

Re: Re:

I don't think Nairo has had a bad hilly TT. The only TT that he has not been so good are the flat pancake ones, or windy flat TT. I don't really remember one bad hilly TT from him.

Actually, I was thinking of his Tirreno Adriatico TT this year, which was extremely poor; but that wasn't hilly, so you're right.

He's still an enigma though. Under normal circumstances he would be my top choice for tomorrow, but he clearly is not in top shape. He did hang on until the very last hill, so he could still do it IMO.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

I hope Ion will move up the rankings, perhaps podium if hes willing to take big risks.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Great ride by Kwiatkowski.

Will be interesting to see who will win the TT tomorrow. I guess Purito could top-5 it.

Purito? Henao is a better tt'er and has been at least as good as Purito uphill.

Im thinking Spilak is a dark horse for the overall now.

Based on what?

Everybody is a better TTer than Rodriguez!

but yeah Henao certainly is - http://www.procyclingstats.com/rider.ph ... ter=Filter

So in this same TT 2 years ago, Henao lost 40 seconds to Quintana...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

There should be a rule, TT bikes in TTs, just so we can see somebody take on Aia on a TT bike. That would be true insanity.

Zakarin, Izagirre and van Garderen are all still in with outside shots at the podium as well as those mentioned above, you know. Izagirre will be motivated and looks to be peaking for this race; Zakarin is goodish against the clock, and Tejay's pedigree is well known. Sure, they may have done more work than many because of attacking and or domestiquing, but País Vasco TTs are always a bit out there. Don't be surprised if Adam Yates takes the overall. Short-to-mid length climbs that are steep seem to be his forte, and there are many, many of those in País Vasco, so racing in this region looks good for him. I certainly wouldn't expect him to win, but given the time gaps and the sometimes topsy-turvy results in EHI time trials it wouldn't shock me at all.

Yes, he'll reenter the race just in time to take the overall.

Twin magic. Conserve energy by changing rider often enough they don't know who is the correct one in the race and allow the result to stand. Have you never seen pro wrestling?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Tomorrow will be very interesting as the race is still very open. Quintana, Rodriguez, Henao and Spilak can all still win the race in my opinion. I still think that Quintana is the favorite with Jrod second. Then all of Yates, Zakarin, TJVG, Izagirre and Pinot can all podium. Yates is a bad TT'er, but he'll probably be able do do quite well here being in peak condition.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Re:

Tomorrow will be very interesting as the race is still very open. Quintana, Rodriguez, Henao and Spilak can all still win the race in my opinion. I still think that Quintana is the favorite with Jrod second. Then all of Yates, Zakarin, TJVG, Izagirre and Pinot can all podium. Yates is a bad TT'er, but he'll probably be able do do quite well here being in peak condition.

17th here last year on a flatter time trial when he clearly wasn't in form this good so really can't see how he's particularly bad.

Can't even guess how someone makes Quintana favourite, but it takes all sorts I suppose.

 

[qwer]

purito with odd 34.00 to win pais vasco

 

[Jspear]

I'm really hoping Jrod wins the overall. I'd like to see Yates podium as well.
Kwiatkowski to beat T Martin.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

purito with odd 34.00 to win pais vasco

Here, you can make your money:

Sergio Henao 2
Nairo Quintana 2
Simon Spilak 7/2
Michal Kwiatkowski 4
Ilnur Zakarin 14
Tejay Van Garderen 25
Simon Yates 25
Ion Izagirre 25
Joaquim Rodriguez 33
Thibaut Pinot 66

Purito:

“La contrarreloj no es lo mío, pero voy a salir a hacerla a tope para tratar de estar por lo menos en el podio. Esta crono es muy complicada, de hecho a estas alturas todavía no hemos decidido si saldremos con la cabra o con la bici normal porque hay un tramo de bajada importante y luego dos subidas muy explosivas. El recorrido es muy exigente y ya llevamos encima una buena paliza". “Las diferencias no son nada”

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

purito with odd 34.00 to win pais vasco

Here, you can make your money:

Sergio Henao 2
Nairo Quintana 2
Simon Spilak 7/2
Michal Kwiatkowski 4
Ilnur Zakarin 14
Tejay Van Garderen 25
Simon Yates 25
Ion Izagirre 25
Joaquim Rodriguez 33
Thibaut Pinot 66

Scarponi 5th in GC yet no-one decides to even mention him. Watch out for him. He does a good hilly time-trial, the Giro 2011 showed that he was only 38 seconds behind Contador. Obviously he is much older now, but less than 2 years ago he came 4th in the Giro.

 

[Bushman]

Re: Re:

Tomorrow will be very interesting as the race is still very open. Quintana, Rodriguez, Henao and Spilak can all still win the race in my opinion. I still think that Quintana is the favorite with Jrod second. Then all of Yates, Zakarin, TJVG, Izagirre and Pinot can all podium. Yates is a bad TT'er, but he'll probably be able do do quite well here being in peak condition.

17th here last year on a flatter time trial when he clearly wasn't in form this good so really can't see how he's particularly bad.

Can't even guess how someone makes Quintana favourite, but it takes all sorts I suppose.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/mob/race.php?id=116786

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Re: Re:

Tomorrow will be very interesting as the race is still very open. Quintana, Rodriguez, Henao and Spilak can all still win the race in my opinion. I still think that Quintana is the favorite with Jrod second. Then all of Yates, Zakarin, TJVG, Izagirre and Pinot can all podium. Yates is a bad TT'er, but he'll probably be able do do quite well here being in peak condition.

17th here last year on a flatter time trial when he clearly wasn't in form this good so really can't see how he's particularly bad.

Can't even guess how someone makes Quintana favourite, but it takes all sorts I suppose.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/mob/race.php?id=116786

The guy who rode that time doesn't lose 15 seconds on today's final climb.