Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco 2015 (6-11 april)

[Flamin]

Re:

I don't have any problems at all with the option Angliru proposes. I just started this thread with the idea of already starting a discussion on this race.

But because Catalunya and Tirreno also didn't had seperated threads for each stage, i thought this would also be the case for PV.

Tirreno did, Catalunya didn't, probably because everyone thought it would be a *** race (combined with a big drop in number of posts since the forum change).

Anyway, it has been a long tradition here to have threads for each stage, so...

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

This should be a great race. Nairo is the favorite of course, but for some reason I think someone other than he or Purito will win.

I expect Talansky to be strong and do a top 5.

Interesting lineup from Greenedge. I don't think I've ever seen the Yates brothers and Chaves in the same race.

ALBASINI Michael
GERRANS Simon
CHAVES RUBIO Johan Esteban
IMPEY Daryl
MATTHEWS Michael
WEENING Pieter
YATES Adam
YATES Simon

Not all three at once but Adam and Chaves did California together last year. Yates finished above Chaves interestingly enough

 

[webvan]

Thanks for the detailed presentation and insight. Should be an interesting race, hope Pinot uses better tactics than at CI...since he won't be the favorite he won't have so much pressure I suppose.

As a side note I quite liked the one thread format as you get notified of messages without having to go to the new thread of the day.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

I don't have any problems at all with the option Angliru proposes. I just started this thread with the idea of already starting a discussion on this race.

But because Catalunya and Tirreno also didn't had seperated threads for each stage, i thought this would also be the case for PV.

This is kind of a bigger deal though

Catalunya is one of the oldest and most traditional races of them all, of course, while Tirreno is a big deal in recent years. But PV belongs in the bracket with Paris-Nice, Suisse and the Dauphiné for most prestigious stage races outside of the GTs. Maybe a little below, but not far. It's a good form guide for the Ardennes as well as a climber's marker.

Personally I preferred Tirreno around 2010-11 kind of time, with the punchier short finishes and no major MTF. Stages like the Chieti one from 2010 and Macerata in 2011 were superb and what I feel the race should be about. Yes, the Guardiagrele stage last year was excellent, but that was with the short punchy finish; there was no need for a Lanciano MTF to make that stage work.

Not so much the version from 10 years ago that was more sprinty because it was a Sanremo tune-up race. It is quite funny to see a stage race with both Óscar Freire and Nairo Quintana on the winners list though.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

I think the GC has the potential to be very interesting. Quintana will probably destroy the field on Arrate and he is actually quite good in a difficult TT like we will have here. Purito if he is in good shape should manage to limit his losses on Arrate and take time/boni's on Quintana in some of the other stages. Purito is also pretty decent in difficult TT's. Kwiatkowski, who was 2nd last year, is another rider who can contend for the win in my opinion. Like Purito he can win some time on the short explosive climbs that feature on most stages and if he has a good day he doesn't have to lose too much time on Arrate either. In the TT however he should take a significant ammount of time on Quintana and Purito, so these two better make sure to get rid of Kwiat on the more difficult stages, though I think that's easier said than done.

Anyway, while I appreciate TT's, I have to admit they can be a bit boring entertainment wise, but the País Vasco TT's are always amazing, they always have the craziest results. Both Purito and Quintana have done quite well in País Vasco TT's actually, but Kwiatkowski seems like the perfect rider for this type of TT, he's strong in the flat but also in the punchy uphill sections and his bike handling skills are superb too.

Actually, thinking about it, Kwiatkowski might be the favourite for me, he also seems to be in great shape actually and his climbing in PN was looking good on the MTF.

 

[Dramaturgia]

The young belgian Tim Wellens probably will podium here, he's Top5 Class right now in 15/20' ascent efforts as he showed last year at Lombardia.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

I think the GC has the potential to be very interesting. Quintana will probably destroy the field on Arrate and he is actually quite good in a difficult TT like we will have here. Purito if he is in good shape should manage to limit his losses on Arrate and take time/boni's on Quintana in some of the other stages. Purito is also pretty decent in difficult TT's. Kwiatkowski, who was 2nd last year, is another rider who can contend for the win in my opinion. Like Purito he can win some time on the short explosive climbs that feature on most stages and if he has a good day he doesn't have to lose too much time on Arrate either. In the TT however he should take a significant ammount of time on Quintana and Purito, so these two better make sure to get rid of Kwiat on the more difficult stages, though I think that's easier said than done.

Anyway, while I appreciate TT's, I have to admit they can be a bit boring entertainment wise, but the País Vasco TT's are always amazing, they always have the craziest results. Both Purito and Quintana have done quite well in País Vasco TT's actually, but Kwiatkowski seems like the perfect rider for this type of TT, he's strong in the flat but also in the punchy uphill sections and his bike handling skills are superb too.

Actually, thinking about it, Kwiatkowski might be the favourite for me, he also seems to be in great shape actually and his climbing in PN was looking good on the MTF.

Nobody is destroying anybody on Arrate, climb is too easy for that

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Re: Re:

Nobody is destroying anybody on Arrate, climb is too easy for that

Okay, destroying is a bit too much indeed, but I mean, that's where Quintana has an advantage over Purito and Kwiatkowski. If they race hard enough on the final climb, I guess stage 1 could be for Quintana as well.

Maybe we can put it this way, stages 1 and 4 are for Quintana, stages 3 and 5 are for Purito and stages 2 and 6 are for Kwiatkowski.

 

[Dedelou]

it is the trademark of champions to use races where "nobody is expected to destroy anybody" to do exactly the opposite

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

Actually, thinking about it, Kwiatkowski might be the favourite for me, he also seems to be in great shape actually and his climbing in PN was looking good on the MTF.

The Croix de Chaubouret is not a great indicator for the climbs of País Vasco though; it's much more gradual than anything here. I also don't expect Kwiatkowski to do so well in the Zaldiarán stage, mainly as I expect that to be a reduced bunch gallop won by somebody from GreenEdge, it usually is. His 2nd place at Malhão in February is perhaps more of an indicator for here. He was 3rd in the Ordizia stage last year though, which seems more promising. He's got good Ardennes results and podiumed last year although that was an easier route than this, so I think he will do well here, just not sure the climbing in Paris-Nice is really comparable.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

This should be a great race. Nairo is the favorite of course, but for some reason I think someone other than he or Purito will win.

I expect Talansky to be strong and do a top 5.

Interesting lineup from Greenedge. I don't think I've ever seen the Yates brothers and Chaves in the same race.

ALBASINI Michael
GERRANS Simon
CHAVES RUBIO Johan Esteban
IMPEY Daryl
MATTHEWS Michael
WEENING Pieter
YATES Adam
YATES Simon

Not all three at once but Adam and Chaves did California together last year. Yates finished above Chaves interestingly enough

Chaves was the better climber there but lost tons of time in the TT.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Re: Re:

The Croix de Chaubouret is not a great indicator for the climbs of País Vasco though; it's much more gradual than anything here. I also don't expect Kwiatkowski to do so well in the Zaldiarán stage, mainly as I expect that to be a reduced bunch gallop won by somebody from GreenEdge, it usually is. His 2nd place at Malhão in February is perhaps more of an indicator for here. He was 3rd in the Ordizia stage last year though, which seems more promising. He's got good Ardennes results and podiumed last year although that was an easier route than this, so I think he will do well here, just not sure the climbing in Paris-Nice is really comparable.

True.

I was just checking the results from Kwiatkowski for last year and I remembered he managed to finish third in every stage except the Arrate stage. Kwiatkowski can be really ridiculous sometimes. He got third in selective stages, bunch sprints and the TT last year, only on Arrate he was 15th losing a few seconds to the rest of the GC riders.

 

[Escarabajo]

I stil don't see Henao in the start list. Can somebody confirm if he is going please?
Thanks.

 

[Red Rick]

How the hell can there be anything wrong with making this thread. PV is usually the best or second best stage race of the year, it deserves a good preview/general discussion

Really like your analysis Arredondo

 

[Ruudz0r]

Re:

I stil don't see Henao in the start list. Can somebody confirm if he is going please?
Thanks.

I believe Henao said something in an interview that he would have liked to return to racing in Pais Vasco (but he already returned earlier). Sky has not made their line up official yet so think we ll have to wait a bit.

 

[Sasquatch]

Brilliant analysis. Love this race. OGE would be thinking Matthews or Albasini for stage 2. Not much competition for them. Bennett, Meersman.

Ulissi to win stage 1 in his comeback. Would be great.

 

[Wallenquist]

Re: Re:

I stil don't see Henao in the start list. Can somebody confirm if he is going please?
Thanks.

I believe Henao said something in an interview that he would have liked to return to racing in Pais Vasco (but he already returned earlier). Sky has not made their line up official yet so think we ll have to wait a bit.

He's confirmed according to biciciclismo.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Re: Re:

This should be a great race. Nairo is the favorite of course, but for some reason I think someone other than he or Purito will win.

I expect Talansky to be strong and do a top 5.

Interesting lineup from Greenedge. I don't think I've ever seen the Yates brothers and Chaves in the same race.

ALBASINI Michael
GERRANS Simon
CHAVES RUBIO Johan Esteban
IMPEY Daryl
MATTHEWS Michael
WEENING Pieter
YATES Adam
YATES Simon

Not all three at once but Adam and Chaves did California together last year. Yates finished above Chaves interestingly enough

Chaves was the better climber there but lost tons of time in the TT.

No. Yates beat him on the first uphill finish when everyone was still in contention and in the TT. In the last mountain stage Chaves attacked and was so far down that absolutely no-one changed tempo and they all just ignored him.

 

[Kokoso]

I wonder if Zaldiaran and the Zaldiar drug has something in common (except for some letters obviously).

Kreuziger opted not to race Pais Vasco this year, last year there was already debate in team if he's to race it or not. Wonder what impact it'll have on his Ardennes campaign.

 

[Dramaturgia]

Johan Chaves is overall a better rider than Adam Yates, really by far. As opposed to Adam Johan Chaves has the winner vein, in spite of be less regular than the british he will score much more important victories.

Also between the two he's the best hilly climber.

 

[trevim]

Johan Chaves is overall a better rider than Adam Yates, really by far. As opposed to Adam Johan Chaves has the winner vein, in spite of be less regular than the british he will score much more important victories.

Also between the two he's the best hilly climber.

I think it's too easy to say that. Besides consistency is the key to perform in GTs which I think will be the career goals for both Chaves and Yates. I do agree that Chaves has a spark that will probably make him win in more impressive manners. We'll see )

 

[greenedge]

JROD/Quintana FTW.
TJVG most likely to come 3rd, but some other riders can challenge for the last podium spot.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yates does however have a good repute and good performances in short and mid-length climbs, which is what they will face here. In the big, drawn-out epic climbs, Chaves all the way, but here I think Yates can give a very good account of himself.

Although when I looked back at his palmarès Yates hadn't been as good at San Sebastián last year as I recalled, fading badly after being in the front group when the first attacks began on the last climb, and his high mountain results in California were better than I remembered too.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Re:

Yates does however have a good repute and good performances in short and mid-length climbs, which is what they will face here. In the big, drawn-out epic climbs, Chaves all the way, but here I think Yates can give a very good account of himself.

Although when I looked back at his palmarès Yates hadn't been as good at San Sebastián last year as I recalled, fading badly after being in the front group when the first attacks began on the last climb, and his high mountain results in California were better than I remembered too.

He didn't fade badly, he crashed heavily, after being the 3rd strongest climber behind Piti & Jrod (but in the same group as them over the top).

At Tirreno & Catalunya we saw pretty clearly what they can each do against top level opposition on long climbs at the moment, and the results speak for themselves, as they did the year before, even if Adam is only 22.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

See I'd not remembered him crashing, but I had remembered him climbing with Piti and J-Rod. I think Yates is certainly capable of doing better than Chaves on this course. However I would argue that judging the climbs of Catalunya vs. the climbs of País Vasco is a misnomer, as they are very different in characteristics. Chaves showing on La Zubia last year is more appropriate than Catalunya in showing capabilities on these climbs, but Catalunya is better as a form guide for obvious reasons.

It's rather amusing in some ways that the most gifted natural climber Britain has produced since Jamie Burrow is riding for an Aussie team that initially predicated itself entirely on sprints and Classics. But it's also interesting that the Yates brothers didn't want anything to do with Sky, and they have certainly had more chances to ride for themselves and show what they can do by choosing Orica.