Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[MatParker117]

Re:

Come on guys, when was the last time you saw a guy seriously challenging in two consecutive grand tours? Even Contador couldn't do it.. Froome didn't ever go full on in the Tour 2012 and was poor in the last week of Vuelta. Quintana is unknown but this Tour was rode hard so I don't expect anything. Valverde maybe, he's used to it but again, a very tough tour. That would rule most of the Tour guys out, for the win at least. I would say the Giro guys will be better but still tired. In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least.

Sastre & Contador 2008

 

[bala v]

Re:

The odds say the following as of now:

***** Quintana, Froome
**** Valverde
*** Aru, Nibali
** Purito, Landa
* Majka, Pozzo, TJ and other hopeless riders

I would go with:
***** nobody
**** Quintana,Froome,Nibali,Valverde
*** Aru,Purito
** Majka,TJVG,Landa,Pozzo
* everybody else

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

Come on guys, when was the last time you saw a guy seriously challenging in two consecutive grand tours? Even Contador couldn't do it.. Froome didn't ever go full on in the Tour 2012 and was poor in the last week of Vuelta. Quintana is unknown but this Tour was rode hard so I don't expect anything. Valverde maybe, he's used to it but again, a very tough tour. That would rule most of the Tour guys out, for the win at least. I would say the Giro guys will be better but still tired. In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least.

Thing is, the guys who are a tier above the rest (Froome Quintana Nibali Contador) all rode the Tour hard or aren't here, so they're tired. Some might consider Valverde to be part of this tier, but he's in exactly the same position too.

Then those who are a bit below them (Aru, Landa, TvG, Purito, Pozzo etc) are a fair bit worse than them (Purito's TT, Landa's domestique duties + TT etc).

Previously, anyone attempting a double has had to face one of the top tier riders in top form (2011 Contador had to face Schleck + Evans et al in top form, 2012 Froome (2nd in TdF but similar situation) had to face a top form Purito, fairly fresh Valverde and a rested Contador, 2015 Contador had to face Froome + Nibali + Quintana).

However, this time, nobody from the top bracket is in top form, so I definitely expect Froome + Quintana/Valverde + Nibali to be competitive against the likes of Aru and Pozzo

 

[Põhja Konn]

Well, the more the merrier!

Best thing with this field is that none of the main contenders should be in peak form which makes everything even more unpredictable. With it being the Vuelta, some of the big names will likely be off the pace from the beginning, but still, should be a good race.

 

[Afrank]

Re:

The odds say the following as of now:

***** Quintana, Froome
**** Valverde
*** Aru, Nibali
** Purito, Landa
* Majka, Pozzo, TJ and other hopeless riders

I'd rate Aru, Nibali and Tejay higher and Froome and Quintana maybe a star lower. They are coming off the Tour where they were working hard the whole race. We don't know yet how Quintana handles back to back GT's but last time Froome attempted it he ended up imploding and falling far behind the big 3. Of course that's not to say things can't change.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Come on guys, when was the last time you saw a guy seriously challenging in two consecutive grand tours? Even Contador couldn't do it.. Froome didn't ever go full on in the Tour 2012 and was poor in the last week of Vuelta. Quintana is unknown but this Tour was rode hard so I don't expect anything. Valverde maybe, he's used to it but again, a very tough tour. That would rule most of the Tour guys out, for the win at least. I would say the Giro guys will be better but still tired. In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least.

This is EXTREMELY unlikely. The race favorites are riders like Quintana, Froome, Aru, Nibbes, Valverde, Jrod ect. Are you trying to say you don't think any of them will podium? My guess is you think somehow someone like Shleck will beat them. Guys like Aru and Landa will be fine. They've rested since the Giro and they will be ready to go for the overall win. You don't have to worry about them cracking from exhaustion. Nibbes and Jrod were both meh in the Tour. They could still find top form for the Vuelta. Valverde has proven year in and year out to be able to keep a pretty high level all year round. I don't think there is any reason to doubt that he will be good in the Vuelta. Froome and Quintana are the only one's that I have questions about. But even they will no doubt be able to beat a lot of the gc pretenders. Riders like Shleck for example.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

The odds say the following as of now:

***** Quintana, Froome
**** Valverde
*** Aru, Nibali
** Purito, Landa
* Majka, Pozzo, TJ and other hopeless riders

It's dumb to make predictions before stage 7, especially in a GT like this.

Sure, more uncertainty will have resolved and predictions will be less error prone after stage 7. They'll be even less error prone 150m from the finish of the last stage.

A quick glance at the data of the last 10 or so years says we can predict the winner quite well before a GT starts. Much of the relevant information is about the strength of the riders, which we already have a good idea about.

 

[Red Rick]

Why are we still talking odds here? I think it has too little to do with how the racing will be and especially cycling odds are often ridiculous.

Anyway, I don't think Froome has a chance. So little time between Tour and Vuelta this year, he just hung on to yellow and the time he tried to do 2 consecutive GT's for GC he was fried very, very crispy. Quintana I think has a much better chance than Froome, whilst Valverde has a great pedigree in riding great Vuelta's after going for GC in the Tour too.

Aru is my favourite though.

Pretty good for this race Contador didn't go Giro-Vuelta.

 

[sir fly]

Re:

Why are we still talking odds here? I think it has too little to do with how the racing will be and especially cycling odds are often ridiculous.

Anyway, I don't think Froome has a chance. So little time between Tour and Vuelta this year, he just hung on to yellow and the time he tried to do 2 consecutive GT's for GC he was fried very, very crispy. Quintana I think has a much better chance than Froome, whilst Valverde has a great pedigree in riding great Vuelta's after going for GC in the Tour too.

Aru is my favourite though.

Pretty good for this race Contador didn't go Giro-Vuelta.

Yeah, nowadays it's really about what Contador decides to target...

 

[May0maniac]

Sky train vs Vino train.

 

[Red Rick]

Any idea what train Froome is bringing? I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

Any idea what train Froome is bringing? I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.

Sergio Henao and G are confirmed

 

[luckyboy]

Froome vs Quintana will be nothing. I look forward to Astana going into hyperspace. 1-2-3

 

[Taxus4a]

Very good knews to be here Froome. I think is the first rider that race a GT after to win le Tour, To win it, with super Astana, Movistar with Quintana and Valverde, Purito, and other people more fresh as TVG, will be difficult.

But anyway he is the favourite. It will the first to do that double so would be historic.

Anyway, must win the better.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Any idea what train Froome is bringing? I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.

Sergio Henao and G are confirmed

Sounds very weak for the Skytrain. Don't think G will be climbing as well, Astana will have 5 guy's left when Froome is down to Henao

 

[Escarabajo]

Astana train will be crazy!!
They had 2 trains in two different races few days ago.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

The odds say the following as of now:

***** Quintana, Froome
**** Valverde
*** Aru, Nibali
** Purito, Landa
* Majka, Pozzo, TJ and other hopeless riders

I would go with:
***** nobody
**** Quintana,Froome,Nibali,Valverde
*** Aru,Purito
** Majka,TJVG,Landa,Pozzo
* everybody else

More like:

***** Quintana,Froome,Nibali,Valverde,Aru,Purito,Majka,TJVG,Landa,Pozzo
* everybody else

This is a race made for anybody at this time of the year IMHO.

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Van Garderen (who never did 2 consecutive good GT's) yes, but Purito (who did it multiple times, in 2010, 2013 and 2014) no?

Van Garderen didn't finish the Tour and has a point to prove before Porte arrives. Purito was aiming for GC in the tour and failed miserably, he may improve but age seems to have caught up.

But he won two stages, and the Vuelta is a totally different race.

He will finish higher then Tejay for sure.

I hope so, I'm a fan of Purito, can't see it happening though

But what's all the fuss about Tejay? The guy is just a regular GC rider who always comes up short. Nothing special imo. He was already towards a collapse before he abandoned due to sickness.

Wasn't the collapse a result of the onset of his getting sick? I always thought that Talansky was the bigger talent but Tejay has proven to be the better grand tour rider and may yet get that grand tour podium. I was impressed with his ride at the Tour this year until his illness.

 

[Mr.White]

I think it will be Astana vs Movistar for the win. Don't think Sky (Froome) will last till the very end

 

[burning]

Re:

Very good knews to be here Froome. I think is the first rider that race a GT after to win le Tour, To win it, with super Astana, Movistar with Quintana and Valverde, Purito, and other people more fresh as TVG, will be difficult.

But anyway he is the favourite. It will the first to do that double so would be historic.

Anyway, must win the better.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=53&year=2008&all=1&current=0

Seriously, do you know anything about cycling? You just spend your time hyping Landa and Froome all the time with 0 knowledge.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

I think it will be Astana vs Movistar for the win. Don't think Sky (Froome) will last till the very end

Well his advantage is that the last week is really easy.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Any idea what train Froome is bringing? I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.

Sergio Henao and G are confirmed

Sounds very weak for the Skytrain. Don't think G will be climbing as well, Astana will have 5 guy's left when Froome is down to Henao

Also Nieve and Roche, probably Boswell, Deignan, Kiryenka, Sitsov. Otherwise Lopez or Knees.

The trouble is if they promised a spot/train for Viviani.

Maybe all this is good enough to beat Astana, maybe not; I don't know.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Any idea what train Froome is bringing? I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.

Sergio Henao and G are confirmed

Sounds very weak for the Skytrain. Don't think G will be climbing as well, Astana will have 5 guy's left when Froome is down to Henao

Also Nieve and Roche, probably Boswell, Deignan, Kiryenka, Sitsov. Otherwise Lopez or Knees.

The trouble is if they promised a spot/train for Viviani.

Maybe all this is good enough to beat Astana, maybe not; I don't know.

So pretty crap. Astana will be light years ahead of them.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Any idea what train Froome is bringing? I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.

Sergio Henao and G are confirmed

Sounds very weak for the Skytrain. Don't think G will be climbing as well, Astana will have 5 guy's left when Froome is down to Henao

Also Nieve and Roche, probably Boswell, Deignan, Kiryenka, Sitsov. Otherwise Lopez or Knees.

The trouble is if they promised a spot/train for Viviani.

Maybe all this is good enough to beat Astana, maybe not; I don't know.

So pretty crap. Astana will be light years ahead of them.

When you've got 3 riders that would all be leaders of most of the teams turning up, other teams don't have a chance to outmuscle them

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Any idea what train Froome is bringing? I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.

Sergio Henao and G are confirmed

Sounds very weak for the Skytrain. Don't think G will be climbing as well, Astana will have 5 guy's left when Froome is down to Henao

Also Nieve and Roche, probably Boswell, Deignan, Kiryenka, Sitsov. Otherwise Lopez or Knees.

The trouble is if they promised a spot/train for Viviani.

Maybe all this is good enough to beat Astana, maybe not; I don't know.

So pretty crap. Astana will be light years ahead of them.

You cannot possibly say that with certainty.