Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[Red Rick]

Nieve and Henao will be climbing well enough to hang on to the 5th best Astana rider.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.

If we assume this is true, then advantage Froome on hilly stages 2, 4, 6, and ITT stage 17. As for the mountains:

Stage 7 looks like the traditional _________/ stage Froome uses to take the lead.
Stage 9 a shorter and steeper climb, but again no other climbs beforehand to trouble Froome
Stage 11 advantage Quintana as it's the _/\_/\_/\_/ type he seems to like
Stage 14 nothing to trouble Froome before the final climb
Stage 15 a shorter and steeper climb, but again no other climbs beforehand to trouble Froome
Stage 16 advantage Quintana as there are two serious climbs in the final 30km.
Stage 20 should be advantage Quintana but there's a long descent and a slightly hilly finish after the last of four climbs.

 

[Carols]

Re:

Sky train vs Vino train.

This the battle of the Super Trains!!!!

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.

If we assume this is true, then advantage Froome on hilly stages 2, 4, 6, and ITT stage 17. As for the mountains:

Stage 7 looks like the traditional _________/ stage Froome uses to take the lead.
Stage 9 a shorter and steeper climb, but again no other climbs beforehand to trouble Froome
Stage 11 advantage Quintana as it's the _/\_/\_/\_/ type he seems to like
Stage 14 nothing to trouble Froome before the final climb
Stage 15 a shorter and steeper climb, but again no other climbs beforehand to trouble Froome
Stage 16 advantage Quintana as there are two serious climbs in the final 30km.
Stage 20 should be advantage Quintana but there's a long descent and a slightly hilly finish after the last of four climbs.

Going to put it out there - if Quintana is still the leader for Movistar by the stage 17 ITT, I expect him to lose no more than 30 seconds on Froome. Can see CF blowing up by this point, luckily for him, last week is pretty easy

 

[sir fly]

I'm not expecting the battle of the trains. At least I'm hoping it won't be such a battle.
With the multiple leaderships announced from all sides, I'm looking forward to the tactical race.
It would be unusual and entertaining.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.

If we assume this is true, then advantage Froome on hilly stages 2, 4, 6, and ITT stage 17. As for the mountains:

Stage 7 looks like the traditional _________/ stage Froome uses to take the lead.
Stage 9 a shorter and steeper climb, but again no other climbs beforehand to trouble Froome
Stage 11 advantage Quintana as it's the _/\_/\_/\_/ type he seems to like
Stage 14 nothing to trouble Froome before the final climb
Stage 15 a shorter and steeper climb, but again no other climbs beforehand to trouble Froome
Stage 16 advantage Quintana as there are two serious climbs in the final 30km.
Stage 20 should be advantage Quintana but there's a long descent and a slightly hilly finish after the last of four climbs.

Going to put it out there - if Quintana is still the leader for Movistar by the stage 17 ITT, I expect him to lose no more than 30 seconds on Froome. Can see CF blowing up by this point, luckily for him, last week is pretty easy

If Froome and Quintana are at the same level I see Froome winning. If he takes, say, 15 seconds over the three hill stages in the first week, takes 40 seconds on stage 7 (because surely Quintana will not lose the same minute he did in the Tour...), takes a small amount on stages 9, 14, and 15, then he would have a lead of ~1.30. The ITT we don't really know. Let's say he takes a further 20 seconds, so he has nearly two minutes. Can Quintana equal the two minutes over stages 11 and 16? Maybe. Stage 11 in particular he could take a minute out of Froome. He'll then have to go all in on stage 20, but the 8km of descending and maybe another three of basically flat won't make it easy. And unlike Astana and Movistar, Froome will be the undisputed leader of Sky.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

I don't see where he's gonna take enough time/hang on to Quintana. TT is very late, and he didn't train on that this year, he might take some time on the hill tops though.

If we assume this is true, then advantage Froome on hilly stages 2, 4, 6, and ITT stage 17. As for the mountains:

Stage 7 looks like the traditional _________/ stage Froome uses to take the lead.
Stage 9 a shorter and steeper climb, but again no other climbs beforehand to trouble Froome
Stage 11 advantage Quintana as it's the _/\_/\_/\_/ type he seems to like
Stage 14 nothing to trouble Froome before the final climb
Stage 15 a shorter and steeper climb, but again no other climbs beforehand to trouble Froome
Stage 16 advantage Quintana as there are two serious climbs in the final 30km.
Stage 20 should be advantage Quintana but there's a long descent and a slightly hilly finish after the last of four climbs.

Going to put it out there - if Quintana is still the leader for Movistar by the stage 17 ITT, I expect him to lose no more than 30 seconds on Froome. Can see CF blowing up by this point, luckily for him, last week is pretty easy

If Froome and Quintana are at the same level I see Froome winning. If he takes, say, 15 seconds over the three hill stages in the first week, takes 40 seconds on stage 7 (because surely Quintana will not lose the same minute he did in the Tour...), takes a small amount on stages 9, 14, and 15, then he would have a lead of ~1.30. The ITT we don't really know. Let's say he takes a further 20 seconds, so he has nearly two minutes. Can Quintana equal the two minutes over stages 11 and 16? Maybe. Stage 11 in particular he could take a minute out of Froome. He'll then have to go all in on stage 20, but the 8km of descending and maybe another three of basically flat won't make it easy. And unlike Astana and Movistar, Froome will be the undisputed leader of Sky.

/

You never know in an ITT becouse the rest of stages afect in it, but it woudl be normal that Froome put 1 or 2 minutes to quintana in it, I know that ITT very well, becouse I use to train in it, althoug I dont know exacly the last part. Of course quintana ca do it very well there, it is not totaly flar, there is some climbs, but Froome is one of the 5 best TT riders today in the world.

In teh rest I dont know, but Froome is difficult to put time on him in explosive stages, this is not le Tour. The could be similar in stages like Fuente del chivo, a long climnb not too hard, but in andorra or in Alba Quintana should be stronger and try to put the time he will lose in the ITT.

Several more riders count for GC, but Froome and Quintana are the favourites, at least with good weather, with rain Nibali would be the favourite.

 

[LanLions]

Re: Re:

Come on guys, when was the last time you saw a guy seriously challenging in two consecutive grand tours? Even Contador couldn't do it.. Froome didn't ever go full on in the Tour 2012 and was poor in the last week of Vuelta. Quintana is unknown but this Tour was rode hard so I don't expect anything. Valverde maybe, he's used to it but again, a very tough tour. That would rule most of the Tour guys out, for the win at least. I would say the Giro guys will be better but still tired. In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least.

This is EXTREMELY unlikely. The race favorites are riders like Quintana, Froome, Aru, Nibbes, Valverde, Jrod ect. Are you trying to say you don't think any of them will podium? My guess is you think somehow someone like Shleck will beat them. Guys like Aru and Landa will be fine. They've rested since the Giro and they will be ready to go for the overall win. You don't have to worry about them cracking from exhaustion. Nibbes and Jrod were both meh in the Tour. They could still find top form for the Vuelta. Valverde has proven year in and year out to be able to keep a pretty high level all year round. I don't think there is any reason to doubt that he will be good in the Vuelta. Froome and Quintana are the only one's that I have questions about. But even they will no doubt be able to beat a lot of the gc pretenders. Riders like Shleck for example.

I never said that these guys won't podium, read again. All I am saying is that people like you are either new to cycling, or have no recollection of past grand tours and the patterns that fall when riders try to ride two GT's in one year, this isn't the old days. This forum really is poor in remembering how people recover from a GT.. It's laughable, honestly. People fail to think about how hard a grand tour was and just think who was best here and there... And Schleck* (if you learn to spell it), Pozzovivo, Henao, etc (the riders you degrade) will finish among Quintana etc. I guarantee you, wait until the third week. Seriously people, think about the past, Froome, Quintana are better at recovering than riders like hmmm Heras?? Lets go back a while even, remember the 1999 Tour?? Who placed first and second? Guys who hadn't rode a single GT.. Ulrich and Gonzalez.. And this was back in the dark days, wake up guys!

 

[TMP402]

@Taxus and if it's hot it favours Froome, if it's mild, it favours Quintana.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

@Taxus and if it's hot it favours Froome, if it's mild, it favours Quintana.

it is possible, we see how Quintana won (for a little respect Hesjedal) the stage of Stelvio in the snow, but he was close to quit the Giro that day: He won in Tirreno with the snow this year. Bad weather is not a problem for him, maybe the extrem hot is not god for him, but he like hot.

What is sure is that for Nibali bad weather, and in some parts of northern Spain use to rain (in south as well but in winter) increase his performance, as weel he take advantage in descents.

Hot is very good as well for Valverde, and he is who better recover form a race to another, but as we sow in le Tour, if Quintana and Froome are there, Valverde has difficult to win.

 

[DBotero]

Wtf is with this Astana hype They had a laughable Tour despite the good Giro versus an overrated Tinkoff team.Movistar should be way better on their home grounds,Sky when Froome is around is usually performing at top level.Then Katusha,AGR,BMC are targeting at least a podium place.I'll be very surprised if Astana will manage to line up this guys and do their things like in Giro.

 

[Gigs_98]

Wtf is with this Astana hype They had a laughable Tour despite the good Giro versus an overrated Tinkoff team.Movistar should be way better on their home grounds,Sky when Froome is around is usually performing at top level.Then Katusha,AGR,BMC are targeting at least a podium place.I'll be very surprised if Astana will manage to line up this guys and do their things like in Giro.

They have 3 potential leaders and even behind them they have a strong team. If they want to crush a rider they have the fire power to do so.

 

[dacooley]

it's the vuelta and all the big guns will feel exhaused to some extent after the tour. i don't think the basic models of froome hitting his peak at the 1st mountain finish and quintana destroying the entire field on multimountain stage will work at the vuelta. there's a big cloud of uncertainty on whether they will be the best climbers here at all.

 

[Andro]

When Astana had 2 strong riders in the Giro they couldn't even figure how to support the strongest one. I'm not sure how they will succeed with 3 potential winners. Internal trouble might be what loses them the win.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

When Astana had 2 strong riders in the Giro they couldn't even figure how to support the strongest one. I'm not sure how they will succeed with 3 potential winners. Internal trouble might be what loses them the win.

True, but Martinelli might've learned from the Giro. Anyway, now the are in Spain there is no reason for an Italian to win it, but in the Giro Astana knew it would be so much better if Aru won; the sponsorships and money would be much better.

 

[LanLions]

Re:

it's the vuelta and all the big guns will feel exhaused to some extent after the tour. i don't think the basic models of froome hitting his peak at the 1st mountain finish and quintana destroying the entire field on multimountain stage will work at the vuelta. there's a big cloud of uncertainty on whether they will be the best climbers here at all.

Finally, someone with sense!

 

[rick james]

So Froome will be knackered from the tour yet nairo and valverde will be ok?

 

[LanLions]

Re:

So Froome will be knackered from the tour yet nairo and valverde will be ok?

All will be tired, though we know from the past that Valverde can do two consecutive GT's.. He was so good in the Tour though that I wonder if he'll be able to follow up with the Vuelta this time. Froome can't do it, we've seen that in 2012 and we don't know about Nairo but his chances are slim.

 

[staubsauger]

If Froome is in, he is gonna be serious about the Vuelta. That guy already has been second in Spain twice in his career. Certainly he plans to arrive in decent enough shape to give it a go and try to finally win this thing. To be honest he won't be fresh enough from my pov.

This Quintana hype once again is a bit laughable. He pretty much got pressured to ride in Spain by Movistar. Normally he's completly chanceless to win this Vuelta being tired after the Tour.

Aru & Landa are THE main favorites since May. Pozzo might be the dark horse. Anything else comes by.surprise. No matter if it's Froome, Quintana, Nibali or Valverde.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

So Froome will be knackered from the tour yet nairo and valverde will be ok?

All will be tired, though we know from the past that Valverde can do two consecutive GT's.. He was so good in the Tour though that I wonder if he'll be able to follow up with the Vuelta this time. Froome can't do it, we've seen that in 2012 and we don't know about Nairo but his chances are slim.

we know nothing for sure. froome couldn't do this in 2012. things tend to change like cycling itself, though froome's win is not very likely.

 

[SeriousSam]

Not very likely perhaps, but is there a rider more likely to win?

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Not very likely perhaps, but is there a rider more likely to win?

Fabio Aru

 

[LanLions]

Re:

Not very likely perhaps, but is there a rider more likely to win?

Any good, proven GT rider who hasn't ridden the Tour.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Not very likely perhaps, but is there a rider more likely to win?

Any good, proven GT rider who hasn't ridden the Tour.

it is fairly compensated with a higher class and proven quiality the tour boys obviously have.

 

[LanLions]

Re: Re:

Not very likely perhaps, but is there a rider more likely to win?

Any good, proven GT rider who hasn't ridden the Tour.

it is fairly compensated with a higher class and proven quiality the tour boys obviously have.

When was the last time having a higher class when not fatigued meant anything in the Vuelta?