Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

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Re: Re:

LanLions said:
dacooley said:
LanLions said:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.

Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?
any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.

It's been done before and it will be done again, but not by these riders. Only a truly exceptional rider like Contador could do it. I hope Contador attempts it next year.

So why hasn't your exceptional rider done it then?
 
Re: Re:

hrotha said:
dacooley said:
LanLions said:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.

Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?
any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.
Then why were you talking about rules and exceptions thereto in the first place?
i'm just suggesting if one outstanding rider couldn't win the double it doesn't mean the other one is doomed to fail a similar gt mission. 'never so far' =/= 'never ever' so when someone says 'one of top favorites stands no chance' i don't understand this
 
Aug 5, 2015
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Re: Re:

rick james said:
LanLions said:
dacooley said:
LanLions said:
cobo and horner are exceptions not the rule. the title will be played out between quintana, froome, valverde and nibali. i would be surpised to see a different winner.

Really? Tell me the last time a Tour winner won the Vuelta in the same year? Or was even properly competitive for the win?
any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.

It's been done before and it will be done again, but not by these riders. Only a truly exceptional rider like Contador could do it. I hope Contador attempts it next year.

So why hasn't your exceptional rider done it then?

He's never attempted it? No one could dispute that 2009 Contador would probably have done it
 
Re: Re:

LanLions said:
dacooley said:
LanLions said:
any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.

It's been done before and it will be done again, but not by these riders. Only a truly exceptional rider like Contador could do it. I hope Contador attempts it next year.

So why hasn't your exceptional rider done it then?

He's never attempted it? No one could dispute that 2009 Contador would probably have done it

Which do you think he'd do? Giro-Tour or Tour-Vuelta?

You think he would have won the Giro and still have enough to beat Schleck in the Tour? Or do you think after that Tour he would have had enough to beat Valverde and co at the Vuelta?
 
Aug 5, 2015
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Re: Re:

PremierAndrew said:
LanLions said:
dacooley said:
LanLions said:
any assumptions and predictions cannot be based on the past entirely. everything happens for the first time one fine day and this day never asks history about examples.

It's been done before and it will be done again, but not by these riders. Only a truly exceptional rider like Contador could do it. I hope Contador attempts it next year.

So why hasn't your exceptional rider done it then?

He's never attempted it? No one could dispute that 2009 Contador would probably have done it

Which do you think he'd do? Giro-Tour or Tour-Vuelta?

You think he would have won the Giro and still have enough to beat Schleck in the Tour? Or do you think after that Tour he would have had enough to beat Valverde and co at the Vuelta?

Don't think he would have beaten Schleck, especially as he would have been weaker and Armstrong may have been more of a factor had Contador not been so dominant... I think the Tour-Vuelta though was doable.
 
Jul 8, 2015
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I doubt that Aru has the class to seriously challenge the likes of Froome, Quintana, Valverde, and Nibali over three weeks. He is simply not strong enough (yet) to win the MTFs against these guys, let alone time trials. For him, the next step is consistently finishing with them in the important stages, not beating them in a GT. I could see him reaching the podium, but winning the whole thing is a bit of a stretch.
 
Re:

jens_attacks said:
I think anyone who puts his money on froome, quintana or valverde is crazy

If you want to put money that none of them will win la Vuelta I acept.

What is the problem to race one mont again le Tour, le Tour was little demanding, it was just a training for France, but with a lot of people, and froome just relaxed at the end becouse he had time to win :rolleyes: ;) ( I hope to talk ironically is allowed in the forum, I just to do it, other way, please, tell me)

Pozzovivo is the freser, and we saw with Horner how important is that, but, really, the difference with Aru and people like that is not so important, Froome has the big handicap to dont relax after le Tour, too much compromises, criteriums and things like that, but Froome is much better rider than Aru. If Landa is like in the Giro he could be a problem, but his teamwould be again his main problem.

I would accept the bet, but with rain more than 3 days in the race, I admit that one of those 3 riders could not win
 
Re: Re:

LanLions said:
Jspear said:
LanLions said:
Come on guys, when was the last time you saw a guy seriously challenging in two consecutive grand tours? Even Contador couldn't do it.. Froome didn't ever go full on in the Tour 2012 and was poor in the last week of Vuelta. Quintana is unknown but this Tour was rode hard so I don't expect anything. Valverde maybe, he's used to it but again, a very tough tour. That would rule most of the Tour guys out, for the win at least. I would say the Giro guys will be better but still tired. In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least.

This is EXTREMELY unlikely. The race favorites are riders like Quintana, Froome, Aru, Nibbes, Valverde, Jrod ect. Are you trying to say you don't think any of them will podium? My guess is you think somehow someone like Shleck will beat them. :rolleyes: Guys like Aru and Landa will be fine. They've rested since the Giro and they will be ready to go for the overall win. You don't have to worry about them cracking from exhaustion. Nibbes and Jrod were both meh in the Tour. They could still find top form for the Vuelta. Valverde has proven year in and year out to be able to keep a pretty high level all year round. I don't think there is any reason to doubt that he will be good in the Vuelta. Froome and Quintana are the only one's that I have questions about. But even they will no doubt be able to beat a lot of the gc pretenders. Riders like Shleck for example.

I never said that these guys won't podium, read again. All I am saying is that people like you are either new to cycling, or have no recollection of past grand tours and the patterns that fall when riders try to ride two GT's in one year, this isn't the old days. This forum really is poor in remembering how people recover from a GT.. It's laughable, honestly. People fail to think about how hard a grand tour was and just think who was best here and there... And Schleck* (if you learn to spell it), Pozzovivo, Henao, etc (the riders you degrade) will finish among Quintana etc. I guarantee you, wait until the third week. Seriously people, think about the past, Froome, Quintana are better at recovering than riders like hmmm Heras?? Lets go back a while even, remember the 1999 Tour?? Who placed first and second? Guys who hadn't rode a single GT.. Ulrich and Gonzalez.. And this was back in the dark days, wake up guys!

This post is annoying on a bunch of levels. First you say "this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race"

Jspear points out that the favorites are "riders like Quintana, Froome, Aru, Nibbes, Valverde, Jrod ect." and says it's unlikely that all of them will miss the podium.

You then attempt to be condecending by denying saying exactly what you said, and telling him to "read again." You put him down some more and then you start to attack the entire forum when you obviously haven't read through the thread as several people have brought up the fact that the Tour guys are likely to be tired and that there's no way to know how they'll go.

To top it off you try to put Jspear down for misspelling or just mistyping Schleck when you did the same thing in your response. This all in like your what, 15th, 20th post? Nice start.
 
Exciting times for the Vuelta, unpredictable of course. The only guarantee is a Purito stage win.

Too many cooks for Vino? I reckon so. It will surely be mentally difficult for Landa to give 100% as a dom in the circumstances. If he's climbing like the Giro, he could end up a lone ranger against his own team who will surely not want Nibali to get shown up.

Froome doesn't strike me as the kind of man to enter half heartedly. I think he can win. If the legs aren't what they could be, he will withdraw and leave Henao and Nieve to have some fun. Viviani must be gutted.

Big wildcards like Pozzo, TJ and Majka (Betancur??) should be interesting to follow. I guess Pinot is not riding?

My main hope is that there is not one guy much stronger than the rest. Seems unlikely, but if there is, my best guess is Nairo.

Aside from GC, what sprinters will ride? Kittel? Bouhanni?

Tom Dumoulin to hold maillot rojo till stage 7.
 
Re: Re:

LanLions said:
Jspear said:
LanLions said:
Come on guys, when was the last time you saw a guy seriously challenging in two consecutive grand tours? Even Contador couldn't do it.. Froome didn't ever go full on in the Tour 2012 and was poor in the last week of Vuelta. Quintana is unknown but this Tour was rode hard so I don't expect anything. Valverde maybe, he's used to it but again, a very tough tour. That would rule most of the Tour guys out, for the win at least. I would say the Giro guys will be better but still tired. In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least.

This is EXTREMELY unlikely. The race favorites are riders like Quintana, Froome, Aru, Nibbes, Valverde, Jrod ect. Are you trying to say you don't think any of them will podium? My guess is you think somehow someone like Shleck will beat them. :rolleyes: Guys like Aru and Landa will be fine. They've rested since the Giro and they will be ready to go for the overall win. You don't have to worry about them cracking from exhaustion. Nibbes and Jrod were both meh in the Tour. They could still find top form for the Vuelta. Valverde has proven year in and year out to be able to keep a pretty high level all year round. I don't think there is any reason to doubt that he will be good in the Vuelta. Froome and Quintana are the only one's that I have questions about. But even they will no doubt be able to beat a lot of the gc pretenders. Riders like Shleck for example.

I never said that these guys won't podium, read again. All I am saying is that people like you are either new to cycling, or have no recollection of past grand tours and the patterns that fall when riders try to ride two GT's in one year, this isn't the old days. This forum really is poor in remembering how people recover from a GT.. It's laughable, honestly. People fail to think about how hard a grand tour was and just think who was best here and there... And Schleck* (if you learn to spell it), Pozzovivo, Henao, etc (the riders you degrade) will finish among Quintana etc. I guarantee you, wait until the third week. Seriously people, think about the past, Froome, Quintana are better at recovering than riders like hmmm Heras?? Lets go back a while even, remember the 1999 Tour?? Who placed first and second? Guys who hadn't rode a single GT.. Ulrich and Gonzalez.. And this was back in the dark days, wake up guys!

Didn't see this post until it was just quoted.

Here's is what you said. " In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least" Since the riders I mentioned are the pre-race favorites, you basically said you don't think they'll podium....but whatever; perhaps you didn't mean to word it the way you did. You can't just look at history and then say "well this is how it IS going to be." You have to look at the situation at hand. Just go back and look at my post. I gave a reason for why I think certain riders will do good....You didn't even engage with the content of my post. Please tell me this - Can Aru do well after the Giro? Do you remember last year (you seem to like to talk about the history of the sport)? What about Valverde - do you remember how he performed last year? He seems even stronger this year. History tells us he will do very good in the Vuelta.
 
Aug 5, 2015
89
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0
Re: Re:

Jspear said:
LanLions said:
Jspear said:
LanLions said:
Come on guys, when was the last time you saw a guy seriously challenging in two consecutive grand tours? Even Contador couldn't do it.. Froome didn't ever go full on in the Tour 2012 and was poor in the last week of Vuelta. Quintana is unknown but this Tour was rode hard so I don't expect anything. Valverde maybe, he's used to it but again, a very tough tour. That would rule most of the Tour guys out, for the win at least. I would say the Giro guys will be better but still tired. In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least.

This is EXTREMELY unlikely. The race favorites are riders like Quintana, Froome, Aru, Nibbes, Valverde, Jrod ect. Are you trying to say you don't think any of them will podium? My guess is you think somehow someone like Shleck will beat them. :rolleyes: Guys like Aru and Landa will be fine. They've rested since the Giro and they will be ready to go for the overall win. You don't have to worry about them cracking from exhaustion. Nibbes and Jrod were both meh in the Tour. They could still find top form for the Vuelta. Valverde has proven year in and year out to be able to keep a pretty high level all year round. I don't think there is any reason to doubt that he will be good in the Vuelta. Froome and Quintana are the only one's that I have questions about. But even they will no doubt be able to beat a lot of the gc pretenders. Riders like Shleck for example.

I never said that these guys won't podium, read again. All I am saying is that people like you are either new to cycling, or have no recollection of past grand tours and the patterns that fall when riders try to ride two GT's in one year, this isn't the old days. This forum really is poor in remembering how people recover from a GT.. It's laughable, honestly. People fail to think about how hard a grand tour was and just think who was best here and there... And Schleck* (if you learn to spell it), Pozzovivo, Henao, etc (the riders you degrade) will finish among Quintana etc. I guarantee you, wait until the third week. Seriously people, think about the past, Froome, Quintana are better at recovering than riders like hmmm Heras?? Lets go back a while even, remember the 1999 Tour?? Who placed first and second? Guys who hadn't rode a single GT.. Ulrich and Gonzalez.. And this was back in the dark days, wake up guys!

Didn't see this post until it was just quoted.

Here's is what you said. " In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least" Since the riders I mentioned are the pre-race favorites, you basically said you don't think they'll podium....but whatever; perhaps you didn't mean to word it the way you did. You can't just look at history and then say "well this is how it IS going to be." You have to look at the situation at hand. Just go back and look at my post. I gave a reason for why I think certain riders will do good....You didn't even engage with the content of my post. Please tell me this - Can Aru do well after the Giro? Do you remember last year (you seem to like to talk about the history of the sport)? What about Valverde - do you remember how he performed last year? He seems even stronger this year. History tells us he will do very good in the Vuelta.

Apologies for my attitude in that post, I was drunk at the time after just getting back from a party and never re-read it in the morning :p Guess I should stay away from the forum after drinking ;) .. With regards to the Vuelta I still stand by my point that we'll get an unlikely winner, but I'm just gonna wait until the race starts now before anymore discussion, whatever happens it should be a great race .. I still tip Brother Frank though :cool:
 
Can this year's edition be considered the best Vuelta a España of the XXIst century?

- Excellent participation (practically all of the 10 best GT riders in world cycling except from Contador + Involvement in the race).

- An acceptable parcours compared with last years madness (okey, there is an excess in MTF, but there is also interesting hilly stages, the Andorra etapón and a decent ITT).

I personally feel that on paper, it can turn out to be the best Vuelta since the 1999 edition.
 
Agreing with Jspear's point: J-Rod and Valv is always good at the Vuelta regardless, Aru has shown he is capable of 2 GTs at a super high level, Landa is rested (but is still a little question mark to me), Nibali has shown he is good for 2 GTs i wasnt at 100% in the Tour. Quintana is a pure stage racer, getting better by the days and likes it to be tough and was always scheduled to the Tour-Vuelta this season. And I dont see any reason Froome would go if he he doesnt think he will podium at least.

The favorites are just miles ahead of those in 2011.
 
I just read through the "who will win the vuelta 2011" thread, and I read some quite funny comments there:

-A forum member called ‪"the chicken from T‪‬" was the only one who had cobo in his top 10 (on 9th place)
-The majority expected a Anton win (I completely forgot how hyped he was back then)
-Surprisingly nobody mentioned Froome :rolleyes:
-Hugo Koblet did a ryo and made fun of people thinking wiggins will do good and said he will finish at least 6 minutes down :D :D :D

I really already forgot how surprising that vuelta was but only because in 2011 the podium surprised everyone that doesnt mean it will be the same this year. We had a ton of vueltas were the gc wasn't surprising at all.