Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[ice&fire]

I just read through the "who will win the vuelta 2011" thread, and I read some quite funny comments there:

-A forum member called ‪"the chicken from T‪‬" was the only one who had cobo in his top 10 (on 9th place)
-The majority expected a Anton win (I completely forgot how hyped he was back then)
-Surprisingly nobody mentioned Froome
-Hugo Koblet did a ryo and made fun of people thinking wiggins will do good and said he will finish at least 6 minutes down

I really already forgot how surprising that vuelta was but only because in 2011 the podium surprised everyone that doesnt mean it will be the same this year. We had a ton of vueltas were the gc wasn't surprising at all.

2011, 2013, ... fill the gap

 

[Taxus4a]

There are some mountains stages that suits well Purito, Other Quintana and others Froome. But Froome is the best in TT.
Here is not loke in le Tour, a demanding week on the flat, so Froome wont have that advantage in the first mountain stage. The ITT is at the end, so is better for people that didnt ride le Tour, or didnt finished, as TVG. But anyways is not an important advantage.

 

[SafeBet]

-A forum member called ‪"the chicken from T‪‬" was the only one who had cobo in his top 10 (on 9th place)

Great topic indeed.
I must add that the user Duarte had Cobo 6th in his top10.

 

[jaylew]

I hope to see Kittel

No Kittel for Giant. Deg is going instead.

 

[TomLPC]

The best thing I've learnt from this topic is that Frank Schleck is actually still alive.

Guess you learn something new every day

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Exciting times for the Vuelta, unpredictable of course. The only guarantee is a Purito stage win.

Too many cooks for Vino? I reckon so. It will surely be mentally difficult for Landa to give 100% as a dom in the circumstances. If he's climbing like the Giro, he could end up a lone ranger against his own team who will surely not want Nibali to get shown up.

Froome doesn't strike me as the kind of man to enter half heartedly. I think he can win. If the legs aren't what they could be, he will withdraw and leave Henao and Nieve to have some fun. Viviani must be gutted.

Big wildcards like Pozzo, TJ and Majka (Betancur??) should be interesting to follow. I guess Pinot is not riding?

My main hope is that there is not one guy much stronger than the rest. Seems unlikely, but if there is, my best guess is Nairo.

Aside from GC, what sprinters will ride? Kittel? Bouhanni?

Tom Dumoulin to hold maillot rojo till stage 7.

What makes you think Dumoulin will hold red jersey even for one day?

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I just read through the "who will win the vuelta 2011" thread, and I read some quite funny comments there:

-A forum member called ‪"the chicken from T‪‬" was the only one who had cobo in his top 10 (on 9th place)
-The majority expected a Anton win (I completely forgot how hyped he was back then)
-Surprisingly nobody mentioned Froome
-Hugo Koblet did a ryo and made fun of people thinking wiggins will do good and said he will finish at least 6 minutes down

I really already forgot how surprising that vuelta was but only because in 2011 the podium surprised everyone that doesnt mean it will be the same this year. We had a ton of vueltas were the gc wasn't surprising at all.

I never made fun of anyone. I did however state that Wiggins would finish 6 minutes down

 

[alspacka]

Re: Re:

What makes you think Dumoulin will hold red jersey even for one day?

Error. Got to thinking stage 1 was a prologue.

 

[dusty red roads]

What? No Kittel? Anyone know why?

 

[offbyone]

I agree with the sentiment that it is unlikely that a top TDF rider will be competitive. Maybe the Vuelta after the Tour is easier than the Tour after the Giro, but it is still a lot to ask. The top TDF riders are likely to end up having a bad day or at least some bad luck. Tough to make it through 2 tours without any major bad luck.
I think weather will be a real factor. If it is super hot, I think it will exacerbate this situation further.

 

[Anderis]

Re:

I doubt that Aru has the class to seriously challenge the likes of Froome, Quintana, Valverde, and Nibali over three weeks. He is simply not strong enough (yet) to win the MTFs against these guys

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_11_San_Miguel_de_Aralar_navarra
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_18_Monte_Castrove_en_Meis_Pontevedra

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

I agree with the sentiment that it is unlikely that a top TDF rider will be competitive. Maybe the Vuelta after the Tour is easier than the Tour after the Giro, but it is still a lot to ask. The top TDF riders are likely to end up having a bad day or at least some bad luck. Tough to make it through 2 tours without any major bad luck.
I think weather will be a real factor. If it is super hot, I think it will exacerbate this situation further.

Valverde did it last year. And in 2013. Purito did it in 2013.

I see no reason why these guys, and Nibali, Quintana and Froome (although i have slightly more doubts about his ability to recover) can't do it.

 

[NairoQ]

Re: Re:

I doubt that Aru has the class to seriously challenge the likes of Froome, Quintana, Valverde, and Nibali over three weeks. He is simply not strong enough (yet) to win the MTFs against these guys

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_11_San_Miguel_de_Aralar_navarra
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_18_Monte_Castrove_en_Meis_Pontevedra

Nice one.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

I doubt that Aru has the class to seriously challenge the likes of Froome, Quintana, Valverde, and Nibali over three weeks. He is simply not strong enough (yet) to win the MTFs against these guys

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_11_San_Miguel_de_Aralar_navarra
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_18_Monte_Castrove_en_Meis_Pontevedra

Nice one.

de facto it's true, by racing logic it does not. the big question is if he would win those stages had he really been a real gc threat.

 

[offbyone]

Re: Re:

Valverde did it last year. And in 2013. Purito did it in 2013.

I see no reason why these guys, and Nibali, Quintana and Froome (although i have slightly more doubts about his ability to recover) can't do it.

Of course there is a reason, it is very hard to hit a peak in fitness that lasts for most of a 3 week grand tour twice in 60 days.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

What? No Kittel? Anyone know why?

I haven't heard anything official but my guess is, 1. Degenkolb has always done well in the Vuelta and they probably think they are guaranteed at least 2-3 stage wins with him, 2. Most of the stages seem to have some sort of small hill in them near the end...my guess is that Kittel would only end up being competitive in 1 stage.

 

[dusty red roads]

aha, well that makes perfect sense then, thanks.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

I doubt that Aru has the class to seriously challenge the likes of Froome, Quintana, Valverde, and Nibali over three weeks. He is simply not strong enough (yet) to win the MTFs against these guys

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_11_San_Miguel_de_Aralar_navarra
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_18_Monte_Castrove_en_Meis_Pontevedra

Nice one.

de facto it's true, by racing logic it does not. the big question is if he would win those stages had he really been a real gc threat.

yeah but that year contador and froome didnt ride the whole vuelta so they were in better shape than froome and quintana may be this year. Valverde and Purito however are hard to predict, but I have the feeling that they wont be as good this year as they were in the past

 

[KyoGrey]

Vuelta official maps and definitive profiles can finally be seen at the official web page.

http://www.lavuelta.com/

That Andorra stage is definetively a big one.

 

[No_Balls]

Re:

Who will have the best TTT?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=weof9ir4gC4

If Castroviejo rides they have the upper hand

 

[sir fly]

How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

Wanna bet?

 

[staubsauger]

Being competitive is something very different to being in winners form. That's actually what Valverde and Purito (Sastre and Evans before) have also shown in pasts editions.

That's why neither them, Quintana, Nibali and even Froome ain't got no very likely chance to take victory right now.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

Wanna bet?

I'd do another avatar bet.
I too don't think he'll do the double.