Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

Wanna bet?

I'd do another avatar bet.
I too don't think he'll do the double.

We could make some arrangement, but I'm not sure you'll like it.

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

As Froome has proved, he doesn't have to be consistent for 3 weeks...he won his last grand tour half fit for the last 9 days of it

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

Wanna bet?

I'd do another avatar bet.
I too don't think he'll do the double.

We could make some arrangement, but I'm not sure you'll like it.

I carried the conversation over to the avatar bet thread:

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=13868&p=1795318#p1795318

 

[Gigs_98]

I now watched the profiles more closely. Can anyone explain why the mtf of stage 14 is ESP while the mtf of stage 15 is only 1st category. That one is clearly more difficult.

However, I still like the route. I hope the fact that there is no mtf in the last week will cause some long range attacks. Especially week 2 is absolutely brutal with 4 mtf's and another medium mountain stage. The last mtf to Ermita de Alba is a little bit harder than pena cabarga, there is another 1st category climb before and its before a rest day which is the reason why I expect even more from this stage than from the andorra stage.

 

[BigMac]

I now watched the profiles more closely. Can anyone explain why the mtf of stage 14 is ESP while the mtf of stage 15 is only 1st category. That one is clearly more difficult.

However, I still like the route. I hope the fact that there is no mtf in the last week will cause some long range attacks. Especially week 2 is absolutely brutal with 4 mtf's and another medium mountain stage. The last mtf to Ermita de Alba is a little bit harder than pena cabarga, there is another 1st category climb before and its before a rest day which is the reason why I expect even more from this stage than from the andorra stage.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149995&c=8. It's a cat.1

 

[ray j willings]

Bertie tweet ,,,,is he going to race?

#LAVUELTA
Come that we're all!

 

[BigMac]

Ok, moved the discussion about avatar bets to the appropriate thread, hope you don't mind.

sirfly, in case you missed it, Jspear also has a proposition for you.

Cheers.

 

[BigMac]

Giant lineup. http://teamgiantalpecin.com/vuelta-a-espana-line-up-announced/

Lawson Craddock (USA)
John Degenkolb (GER)
Tom Dumoulin (NED)
Johannes Fröhlinger (GER)
Thierry Hupond (FRA)
Koen de Kort (NED)
Luka Mezgec (SLO)
Tom Stamsnijder (NED)
Zico Waeytens (BEL)

Lovely team! Go Lawson!

Woop, woop!

 

[sir fly]

Re:

Ok, moved the discussion about avatar bets to the appropriate thread, hope you don't mind.

sirfly, in case you missed it, Jspear also has a proposition for you.

Cheers.

Good move
I've responded to Jspear in the thread.

 

[Gigs_98]

I now watched the profiles more closely. Can anyone explain why the mtf of stage 14 is ESP while the mtf of stage 15 is only 1st category. That one is clearly more difficult.

However, I still like the route. I hope the fact that there is no mtf in the last week will cause some long range attacks. Especially week 2 is absolutely brutal with 4 mtf's and another medium mountain stage. The last mtf to Ermita de Alba is a little bit harder than pena cabarga, there is another 1st category climb before and its before a rest day which is the reason why I expect even more from this stage than from the andorra stage.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149995&c=8. It's a cat.1

Thats the point. Until today it was a 1st category climb but they changed it to an ESP climb, at least the vuelta side says so:
http://www.lavuelta.com/la-vuelta/2015/es/etapa-14.html

 

[cantpedal]

Re: Re:

How will GC battle shake up?
Nothing will shake up, Froome will shake them all off!
The Tour champion doesn't come to a race to be beaten by the rivals he defeated a month ago or some young and coming hopefuls.
This will be the double of the season.

In your dreams he can't even stay at a consistent level for 3 weeks, there's no way he can do the double.

so far he's proven he only has to ride great for 2 weeks and then hold on to a lead

 

[TI-Raleigh]

Re: Re:

I doubt that Aru has the class to seriously challenge the likes of Froome, Quintana, Valverde, and Nibali over three weeks. He is simply not strong enough (yet) to win the MTFs against these guys

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_11_San_Miguel_de_Aralar_navarra
http://www.procyclingstats.com/race/Vuelta_a_Espana_2014_Stage_18_Monte_Castrove_en_Meis_Pontevedra

Nice one.

Please. Aru won the stages because the top guys let him go. If it was Valverde and Purito that had attacked, Froome/Contador would have chased them down. Name an MTF where Aru won by being clearly the dominant, strongest rider, not mountain sprinting away in the final kms.

 

[sir fly]

I'm very doubtful regarding Aru's chances.
Not only that he hasn't proved himself against the best men in the business, but also in the sense that this year his form isn't stable as it's been last year.
My impression is that the fluctuations came with the efforts to lift his limits, It's easier (and natural) to reach stability on the level of limits closer to average values. Lifting the peaks requires time to adjust the average.

 

[bebellion2]

Re: Re:

Why are you hoping your post doesn't get deleted? Do you have a reason to be worried?

I think he's talking about the clinic insinuations.

Exactly Sometimes it's hard to leave that out, my apologies.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

We could make some arrangement, but I'm not sure you'll like it.

What do you suggest? Either I am willing to bet froome will not win

 

[dacooley]

yes, the most important thing is froome's recovery is so terrible that he won the tour twice and finished second in the gts 3 times yet.

 

[SeriousSam]

“There’s respect between us. We’re a group, a real team, and there’s Landa too"

A team and Landa eh? Shameful how Aru's inferiority was allowed to prevail over the magnificent Landa

 

[Irondan]

Re: Re:

Why are you hoping your post doesn't get deleted? Do you have a reason to be worried?

I think he's talking about the clinic insinuations.

Exactly Sometimes it's hard to leave that out, my apologies.

I deleted the blatantly offending comment and all the quoted comments that went along with it. Please keep doping talk and insinuations in the clinic.

 

[offbyone]

The vuelta is looking like a pretty exciting race. Instead of asking who is going, you have to ask who isn't going to show up?

 

[Jspear]

Re:

The vuelta is looking like a pretty exciting race. Instead of asking who is going, you have to ask who isn't going to show up?

Alberto Contador. What a sluggard!

 

[Descender]

I now watched the profiles more closely. Can anyone explain why the mtf of stage 14 is ESP while the mtf of stage 15 is only 1st category. That one is clearly more difficult.

However, I still like the route. I hope the fact that there is no mtf in the last week will cause some long range attacks. Especially week 2 is absolutely brutal with 4 mtf's and another medium mountain stage. The last mtf to Ermita de Alba is a little bit harder than pena cabarga, there is another 1st category climb before and its before a rest day which is the reason why I expect even more from this stage than from the andorra stage.

This stage is underrated. Ermita de Alba is a very hard cat. 1 climb (7km at almost constant 10%), while the climb before, Cobertoria East, is even harder and IMHO a definite Hors Categorie.

That being said, the route still *****

 

[Descender]

I now watched the profiles more closely. Can anyone explain why the mtf of stage 14 is ESP while the mtf of stage 15 is only 1st category. That one is clearly more difficult.

However, I still like the route. I hope the fact that there is no mtf in the last week will cause some long range attacks. Especially week 2 is absolutely brutal with 4 mtf's and another medium mountain stage. The last mtf to Ermita de Alba is a little bit harder than pena cabarga, there is another 1st category climb before and its before a rest day which is the reason why I expect even more from this stage than from the andorra stage.

http://www.procyclingstats.com/race.php?id=149995&c=8. It's a cat.1

Thats the point. Until today it was a 1st category climb but they changed it to an ESP climb, at least the vuelta side says so:
http://www.lavuelta.com/la-vuelta/2015/es/etapa-14.html

Alto Campoo is definitely not ESP worthy.

 

[Descender]

I don't think he'll win, but Aru is the best bet.

 

[TMP402]

Contador out training...

https://twitter.com/blnnavarro/status/632265232535158784

 

[fungusbear]

Re:

Contador out training...

https://twitter.com/blnnavarro/status/632265232535158784

He won't race.