Vuelta Winner

[Libertine Seguros]

He was up there with Contador in the mountains in the Vuelta 08, until he crashed out just before the Angliru. He crashed so badly that 2009 was a wasted year, but this year he's back as he showed in Castilla y Leon, the FW and LBL. His form is good again, judging by his performance in the last mountainstage of Burgos.

I recall Contador and Valverde attacking on Pla de Beret, and Antón being the only one who could follow. He did struggle a bit to get back on when Contador attacked a second time, but when you're climbing with Contador and Valverde when both are giving it close to 100% then you have to be taken seriously.

he will start 100% unless he gets injured in this eneco so let's pray nothing happens because this race is like russian roulette for soler.

Soler + road furniture = carnage

I chose VDV to win. Reasons:
1. No reason to be on bad form (Menchov/Purito)
2. Good TT and TTT (spanish teams may be lacking here, F Schleck too)
3. Good team for support in the mountains (At least for the first 2 weeks with Tommy D, Also has Menchov to slog up the hills with and limit time losses)
4. Already met his quota of bad luck this year.

In all, maybe not the prettiest win, but I think it can happen. Nibali/F Schleck will be biggest competitors, then the Spaniards (Anton, Mosquera, Soler)

If Christian Vande Velde can climb with Igor Antón and Ezequiel Mosquera on places like Bola del Mundo, I will eat my own hand.

(PS Soler isn't Spanish.)

 

[The Hitch]

Apparently he is gettng married this week

who is? Frank?

 

[EmpressJo]

who is? Frank?

Yep, this weekend I think. I can't find the link that says the exact date, but pretty sure it's this weekend. Best I could come up with is this. At any rate, explains why he's not racing Tour de Limousin.

 

[joy118118]

Yep, this weekend I think. I can't find the link that says the exact date, but pretty sure it's this weekend. Best I could come up with is this. At any rate, explains why he's not racing Tour de Limousin.

didnt he marry on this New Years Day? IIRC he said it on twitter.

 

[EmpressJo]

didnt he marry on this New Years Day? IIRC he said it on twitter.

Indeed he did - in a civil ceremony. It's a European thing, where, particularly if you're Catholic (which I think the Schlecks are), you marry in both a civil and a religious ceremony, usually held the same day or a day or two apart. For some reason, they had the civil ceremony NYE; the religious ceremony is (supposedly) this weekend.

BTW, interesting to see how it affects his prep. A lot of people are banking on him; current score is F Schleck 36 to Nibali's 37.

 

[Rocksteady]

If Christian Vande Velde can climb with Igor Antón and Ezequiel Mosquera on places like Bola del Mundo, I will eat my own hand.

(PS Soler isn't Spanish.)

I'm not suggesting he can climb with them. I am saying he can stay in contention the way Menchov has done in previous years depending on how hard the race is run in the mountains. My apologies for calling Soler a Spaniard. I (erroneously) assumed spainsh speaker = Spaniard. Soler is Columbian.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

but looking at Garmin's lineup, the only mountain helper he'll have is Danielson. You think that will be enough to match Euskaltel with Intxausti, Martínez et al, Caisse with Bruseghin, Arroyo and Urán to mash tempo or for the Schleck brothers?

And the Vuelta is usually run hard in the mountains, because people like Soler and Mosquera have time trials so bad Michael Rasmussen laughs at them. Even last year, which was known for being raced very timidly, Mosquera tried to gain time on nearly every MTF.

 

[Ryaguas]

but looking at Garmin's lineup, the only mountain helper he'll have is Danielson. You think that will be enough to match Euskaltel with Intxausti, Martínez et al, Caisse with Bruseghin, Arroyo and Urán to mash tempo or for the Schleck brothers?

And the Vuelta is usually run hard in the mountains, because people like Soler and Mosquera have time trials so bad Michael Rasmussen laughs at them. Even last year, which was known for being raced very timidly, Mosquera tried to gain time on nearly every MTF.

And that is what going to happen this year too... write it... This is not Le Tour... In La Vuelta ppl goes nuts in the mountains and there is attacks everywhere...

 

[karlboss]

but looking at Garmin's lineup, the only mountain helper he'll have is Danielson. You think that will be enough to match Euskaltel with Intxausti, Martínez et al, Caisse with Bruseghin, Arroyo and Urán to mash tempo or for the Schleck brothers?

And the Vuelta is usually run hard in the mountains, because people like Soler and Mosquera have time trials so bad Michael Rasmussen laughs at them. Even last year, which was known for being raced very timidly, Mosquera tried to gain time on nearly every MTF.

Garmin have enough mountain help in even millar and zabriskie until about stage 15...then i'll have to agree vdv won't be in the picture

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

but looking at Garmin's lineup, the only mountain helper he'll have is Danielson. You think that will be enough to match Euskaltel with Intxausti, Martínez et al, Caisse with Bruseghin, Arroyo and Urán to mash tempo or for the Schleck brothers?

And the Vuelta is usually run hard in the mountains, because people like Soler and Mosquera have time trials so bad Michael Rasmussen laughs at them. Even last year, which was known for being raced very timidly, Mosquera tried to gain time on nearly every MTF.

solers timetrialing isn't bad at all and mosquera's isn't too bad either. but soler has hands down better itt than anton, mosquera of frank schleck

1 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 16.47 (53.62 km/h)
2 Mikhail Ignatiev (Rus) Tinkoff Credit Systems 0.22
3 Andrei Kunitski (Blr) Acqua & Sapone - Caffe Mokambo 0.34
4 Nikolai Trussov (Rus) Tinkoff Credit Systems
5 Juan Mauricio Soler (Col) Barloworld 0.40
6 Vasil Kiryenka (Blr) Tinkoff Credit Systems 0.42
7 Pedro Romero Ocampo (Spa) Extremadura - Spiuk 0.46
8 Evgeni Petrov (Rus) Tinkoff Credit Systems
9 Moises Duenas Nevado (Spa) Agritubel 0.50
10 Emilien Benoit Bergès (Fra) Agritubel 0.51
11 Carlos Castaño Panadero (Spa) Karpin Galicia 0.53
12 Rubén Plaza Molina (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0.55
13 Daniele Nardello (Ita) Team L.P.R. 0.56
14 Alberto Martínez Trinidad (Spa) Agritubel
15 Gustavo César Veloso (Spa) Karpin Galicia 0.57

 

[karlboss]

solers timetrialing isn't bad at all and mosquera's isn't too bad either. but soler has hands down better itt than anton, mosquera of frank schleck

1 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 16.47 (53.62 km/h)
2 Mikhail Ignatiev (Rus) Tinkoff Credit Systems 0.22
3 Andrei Kunitski (Blr) Acqua & Sapone - Caffe Mokambo 0.34
4 Nikolai Trussov (Rus) Tinkoff Credit Systems
5 Juan Mauricio Soler (Col) Barloworld 0.40
6 Vasil Kiryenka (Blr) Tinkoff Credit Systems 0.42
7 Pedro Romero Ocampo (Spa) Extremadura - Spiuk 0.46
8 Evgeni Petrov (Rus) Tinkoff Credit Systems
9 Moises Duenas Nevado (Spa) Agritubel 0.50
10 Emilien Benoit Bergès (Fra) Agritubel 0.51
11 Carlos Castaño Panadero (Spa) Karpin Galicia 0.53
12 Rubén Plaza Molina (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0.55
13 Daniele Nardello (Ita) Team L.P.R. 0.56
14 Alberto Martínez Trinidad (Spa) Agritubel
15 Gustavo César Veloso (Spa) Karpin Galicia 0.57

maybe compare TTs this year

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

why? soler hasn't raced anything at full will yet, although he was 20th in dauphinee prologue which is good.

 

[karlboss]

You had to go to 2007...not speaking volumes for his TT ability. Mosquera and Anton at vuelta a castilla y leon were very solid in the TT. Even Frank did well at the tour de suisse.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Name me 5 itt's that soler did at full effort??

he hasn't done many and those he did, he did mostly excellent or showed his potential. his final itt tour he had 100th intermediate time at check 1 and 40th endtime menaing he totally screwed up his effort in that itt but back then he was 24, he is only stronger. agree with it or not but don't be surprised this vuelta to see soler take time on all those guys in the timetrial.

 

[karlboss]

Name me 5 itt's that soler did at full effort??

he hasn't done many and those he did, he did mostly excellent or showed his potential. his final itt tour he had 100th intermediate time at check 1 and 40th endtime menaing he totally screwed up his effort in that itt but back then he was 24, he is only stronger. agree with it or not but don't be surprised this vuelta to see soler take time on all those guys in the timetrial.

Look at Frank Schleck at the tour de suisse, this year. He was 1:14 down on tony martin over 27km, behind, the likes of cancellara, kloden, leipheimer...all of whom were prepping for the tour.
Or Soler in 2007, who was down 40 seconds over 15km to valverde not at the height of his TT powers, behind ignatiev, kunitski, and trussov.

Now explain how Soler is hands down better than Schleck.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

that suisse itt wasn't flatt is suited frank very well. the burgos itt was like a flyers course, as you can see by the average which doesn't even suit soler. valverde is one of the best in shorter itt's

 

[theyoungest]

that suisse itt wasn't flatt is suited frank very well. the burgos itt was like a flyers course, as you can see by the average which doesn't even suit soler. valverde is one of the best in shorter itt's

The Suisse TT had such minimal inclines, you could basically call it flat. Look who's in the top-10, all rouleurs (and Wout Poels, for some reason). F. Schleck really did very well there, and his performance betrayed some serious TT training. Too bad he didn't get to show any of it at the Tour.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

look at the rest of that result it wasn't a normal itt at all. we will see in vuelta but I still say schleck is a bad itt rider, he won't do top 20 in itt imo.

 

[theyoungest]

look at the rest of that result it wasn't a normal itt at all. we will see in vuelta but I still say schleck is a bad itt rider, he won't do top 20 in itt imo.

The top-10 looks perfectly normal to me. And it was a perfectly normal TT. F. Schleck probably won't crack the top-20, that's true, certainly in a 40+ k TT, but neither will Soler.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Garmin have enough mountain help in even millar and zabriskie until about stage 15...then i'll have to agree vdv won't be in the picture

Millar and Zabriskie will make it over Xorret del Catí with the leaders? You're either very biased or very optimistic. Even Samuel Sánchez was dropped there last year... if one of Soler or Antón's minions set an infernal pace up there, Millar is toast. Zabriskie... well, he's not too bad with a long, gradual climb, so he'll probably be OK when they're climbing to Pal, but I've seen nothing that makes me think he'll do anything other than get dropped on Xorret del Catí.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

look at the rest of that result it wasn't a normal itt at all.

no more abnormal than one in which Emilien Benoît Berges and Juan Mauricio Soler out-TT Rubén Plaza.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

The top-10 looks perfectly normal to me. And it was a perfectly normal TT. F. Schleck probably won't crack the top-20, that's true, certainly in a 40+ k TT, but neither will Soler.

I will say for sure that soler in topshape will easily do top 20 in vuelta itt. we will see. but let's remember each others quotes

 

[Jamsque]

I think VandeVelde has a legitimate shot at winning if he is on form, but he's not going to do it by attacking in the mountains. His team will be great in the TTT and in defending a jersey (if they get one) on the flat and medium stages, but in the mountains I would expect him to be mostly going solo. Danielson will help, but I don't think he's going to be up there every day.

 

[icefire]

The TTT is just 14 km. It's been shortened about 1km because of works on the originally planned course. I can't see anyone taking a significant advantage in that stage. Wait... the gap between the TdF winner and the runner up this year was bigger in the prologue than in the final GC

No, seriously, I don't see a Vuelta winner who is not with the best climbers most of the time and loses more than 3 minutes in the mountain stages.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think that the idea Vande Velde could win comes from the idea that the Vuelta is a weaker GC field than the Tour.

This is true, but it only tells half the story. A number of the riders who compete for the Vuelta, and also the Giro, could not compete for the Tour de France, it's true. Many of these are because they are pure mountain goats who need it steep and lost time in time trials. However, many of the riders who compete for the Tour de France could not compete for the Giro d'Italia or Vuelta a España. This is because they are part of that generation of riders who make their gains in the time trials and merely hold on in the mountains; this is easier to do on the long, gradual ascents of the Tour, but when faced with a super-steep ascent like Zoncolán, Angliru, the Mortirolo or Bola del Mundo, they'll haemorrhage time - as we saw from Levi last year in the Giro. Yes, Levi was 2nd in the 2008 Vuelta, but that was on a super-team. Vande Velde isn't as good a climber as Levi most of the time in my opinion, and doesn't have the benefit of a team set up to ride for GC with a list of strong mountain domestiques - we can't assume that because he could top 5 the Tour, he can win the Vuelta; the Vuelta is not just the Tour de France Lite.

If Vande Velde is hanging tough with Basque, Colombian and Galician mountain goats in week 3, then something is very wrong.