Vuelta Winner

[ttrider]

Simply who will win?

Personally i think it is hard to know due to the uncertain nature of everyones form.
However I have 4 picks Frank Shleck, Nibali, Menchov and Anton

Frank is fresh and looked excellent at Suisse before injury at the tour, if he can regain this level the parcours suits him with Andy and Richie Porte lethal super domestiques

Nibali is also fresh and showed at Burgos that his form is building nicely, his Giro was awesome with one bad day on the Zoncolan costing 3 minutes to Basso, hes a weapon on the descents and i believe he has the package to pull it off

Menchov will take a minute at leaste out of these guys in the tt if not 2 mins, he has also won the event twice with similar race schedules, he podiumed at the tour and i believe he is the winner on top form

Anton is my wild card, he did an absolute job on Contador in Castilla leon and appeared to be on track at Burgos, last year was a disaster for him but i believe he has the potential to do serious damage on the climbs

 

[theyoungest]

Ezequiel Mosquera. That is all.

 

[Arnout]

You're forgetting Mosquera and one may argue also Soler.

Frank Schleck? No. Menchov? Peaked during le Tour, he's not the kind of rider who can mentally prepare for a GT more than once in a season. Nibali? Have my doubts, he'll crack at least once.

Personally I believe it will be a battle between Mosquera and Anton (possibly Soler if he can find a bit of form).

Oh and what about Sastre? Although I have a hard time taking him seriously I have to say.

 

[taiwan]

Sastre! Ok, I'm going for the crowd-pleaser, but I could genuinely see it happening. I wanted to highlight his omission from the list, too.

 

[The Hitch]

Looking at this list the whole time i was waiting for some name to come up and the list run out. Half did the tour, the other half have not proven themselves. The good thing is that if Menchov doesnt win, we will have a new induction into the "i won a gt club".
Oh my dear Cuddles, you really chose the wrong gts *


* again

 

[hrotha]

Is there a complete preliminary list of riders anywhere? We've seen Cervélo's and Sky's so I imagine everybody must have sent them by now.

 

[The Hitch]

After careful deliberation i have decided to go for Frank Schleck. He was going well pre tdf - won tds, and can outclimb most of the people in this race. Those he cant - lil bro and the pope, have already done the tdf and should be tired. + even if andy is on form he might help his brother.

Andy doesnt have that hedonistic attitude taken by many athletes that winning is the be all end all in life. He loves his brother and will help him, especially since its clear next year Frank will commite entirely to the Andy cause in the grandady of them all.

 

[Arnout]

After careful deliberation i have decided to go for Frank Schleck. He was going well pre tdf - won tds, and can outclimb most of the people in this race. Those he cant - lil bro and the pope, have already done the tdf and should be tired. + even if andy is on form he might help his brother.

Frank Schleck won't outclimb either Anton or Mosquera.

 

[roundabout]

I would have probably gone for Schleck, but seeing that he DNFed in Hamburg and is off the start list for the Tour du Limousin i'm wondering if something is up.

Guess i'll be going with Mosquera and he better not let me down this year.

 

[ttrider]

If your backing Mosquera your saying he will take 3 mins out of everyone in the mountains as he ll need it in a tt, not gona happen, maybe there a reason why he is on such a poor team.....this maybe clinic or not but why would he not join a good team
Anton is possible but Soler should be a joke i mean hes probably not even going and will definitely injure himself at some point
I would be amazed if someone out of the 4 i mentioned with the exception of Andy won the vuelta

 

[Ryaguas]

Yo voy con Purito Rodriguez... corriendo en casa y mostrando buena forma en Le Tour... quiero verle siquiera haciendo Top 3 y tiene todas las armas para hacerlo... y asi completaria una de las mejores, sino la mejor, temporada de su carrera...

I'll go with Purito Rodriguez... running at home soil and showing a really good form in Le Tour... I want to see him making Top 3 at least (I know that his TT is not the best), He has all the weapons to make it happen... therefore completing one of the best season, if not the best, in his career...

Also Katusha will have a very good and solid team...

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

if not injured, soler

 

[Arnout]

Yo voy con Purito Rodriguez... corriendo en casa y mostrando buena forma en Le Tour... quiero verle siquiera haciendo Top 3 y tiene todas las armas para hacerlo... y asi completaria una de las mejores, sino la mejor, temporada de su carrera...

I'll go with Purito Rodriguez... running at home soil and showing a really good form in Le Tour... I want to see him making Top 3 at least (I know that his TT is not the best), He has all the weapons to make it happen... therefore completing one of the best season, if not the best, in his career...

Also Katusha will have a very good and solid team...

Expect him to pick a few stages. Already had 2 form peaks this season (early season and Tour), doubt if he can reach his best form again.

 

[Arnout]

If your backing Mosquera your saying he will take 3 mins out of everyone in the mountains as he ll need it in a tt, not gona happen, maybe there a reason why he is on such a poor team.....this maybe clinic or not but why would he not join a good team
Anton is possible but Soler should be a joke i mean hes probably not even going and will definitely injure himself at some point
I would be amazed if someone out of the 4 i mentioned with the exception of Andy won the vuelta

Which other contenders have a good TT? Only Nibali and Menchov, which I expect to have difficulties uphill.

And shut up with your stupid unfounded clinic comments.

 

[Connor Young]

Frank schleck for me. His form before the TdF was his best ever. As for Menchov, I doubt he can peak for a second time. Mosquera, time trials mean no chance. Sastre will probably settle for a top 20 place in his third GT of the year.

I can only see Anton putting up a decent fight but with the help of Andy and Porte, I don't even think Frank's TT capabilities will let him down.

 

[Arnout]

Frank schleck for me. His form before the TdF was his best ever. As for Menchov, I doubt he can peak for a second time. Mosquera, time trials mean no chance. Sastre will probably settle for a top 20 place in his third GT of the year.

I can only see Anton putting up a decent fight but with the help of Andy and Porte, I don't even think Frank's TT capabilities will let him down.

Mosquera is a better TTer than Frank Schleck.

 

[The Hitch]

Frank Schleck won't outclimb either Anton or Mosquera.

Frank has won the queen stage of the grandady of them all twice, Alp de huez 06 and grand bornard 09. Anyone who has done that is a top climber. He has finished very high in tdfs. He has always been one of the best climbers. I would like to see Antons and Mosquerras perform, but Frank is the best climber in the race imo (barring andy who wont be on form).

Oh and as we saw in the tds he can tt these days too.

 

[Arnout]

Frank has won the queen stage of the grandady of them all twice, Alp de huez 06 and grand bornard 09. Anyone who has done that is a top climber. He has finished very high in tdfs. He has always been one of the best climbers. I would like to see Antons and Mosquerras perform, but Frank is the best climber in the race imo (barring andy who wont be on form).

Oh and as we saw in the tds he can tt these days too.

Alpe 06 was in a break. Grand Bornard 09 was one stage. He's too inconsistent.

One ITT in a one week race hardly proves a point. He's proved he can't TT in the Tour prologue a few weeks later.

 

[Ryaguas]

mmmm Liquigas is going with Nibali - Kreuziger - Kiserlovski, isn't they?

 

[The Hitch]

Alpe 06 was in a break. Grand Bornard 09 was one stage. He's too inconsistent.

One ITT in a one week race hardly proves a point. He's proved he can't TT in the Tour prologue a few weeks later.

did he go during the rain or during the early/late dry period? And its not like he has to beat Contador in the tt is it, well unless Menchov performs or someone else unexpected.

The main question for Frank Schleck will be is he on form after the tdf prep and crash. If yes then he will win. If not he wont. I honestly think the chances are he wont be on form, but i choose him nonetheless as i dont see anyone else on the list as a favourite in any way.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

The poll results are exactly what is going to make this year's addition of the race so great, it's a wide open field. For me, the big guns will be Nibali, Anton, F. Schleck, Rodriguez, Soler, Menchov, and Mosquera. Instead of just picking who wins, I'll go with my top 5-

1. Frank Scleck
2. Ezequiel Mosquera
3. Igor Anton
4. Denis Menchov
5. Joaquim Rodriguez

For me, Rodriguez is a wild card. If he has the same form he had at the tour, he'll be on the podium, potentially even the winner. Same thing goes for Menchov. I think Nibali's climbing might be a tad overrated, the Giro field just wasn't that strong this year.

 

[khardung la]

Frank ... has always been one of the best climbers. I would like to see Antons and Mosquerras perform, but Frank is the best climber in the race imo (barring andy who wont be on form).

Oh and as we saw in the tds he can tt these days too.

There are serious grades in many climbs, unlike in the TdF. Those big slopes favour Soler, Mosquera and Purito Rodriguez over F. Schleck. There will be a bunch of moments with 15-23% slopes quite at the end of hard stages. Xorret del Cati, Rat Penat, Pena Cabarga, Cotobello and Bola del Mundo require explosivity and acceleration since they are short but brutal efforts.

Somehow I don't see Frank being better than the spanish specialists in those slopes. I would like him to win though. What if in the future the 2 brothers would compete for the leadership at the TdF?

As for how good FS tts....well, let's see. I find it hard to believe that he has improved that much with respect to the last years.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I can't possibly see F.Schleck keeping up with Anton and Mosquera. He is terribly inconsistent uphill and will lose time a few mt stages.
And he isn't a TT star either. Can't see him win really

Nibali, maybe, but he usually has 1 offday where he suddenly loses 2/3 minutes uphill. Again doubt that he will make all that up in the TT(s).

Mosquera and Anton are my favorites.

 

[hrotha]

The poll results are exactly what is going to make this year's addition of the race so great, it's a wide open field. For me, the big guns will be Nibali, Anton, F. Schleck, Rodriguez, Soler, Menchov, and Mosquera. Instead of just picking who wins, I'll go with my top 5-

1. Frank Scleck
2. Ezequiel Mosquera
3. Igor Anton
4. Denis Menchov
5. Joaquim Rodriguez

For me, Rodriguez is a wild card. If he has the same form he had at the tour, he'll be on the podium, potentially even the winner. Same thing goes for Menchov. I think Nibali's climbing might be a tad overrated, the Giro field just wasn't that strong this year.

No way Menchov is good enough to be in the top 4 and not win this. He'll either win or be 64th (or DNF, of course). Personally I think when he's already had his good season he switches off, I don't see him doing well but obviously he's potentially the strongest rider.

I don't trust Fränk Schleck too much. I could picture him on the TdF podium, but the Vuelta is different. I'm not sure how committed he'll be, or how good his form will be after his crash.

As for Joaquim Rodríguez, I reckon he must be pretty tired to go at it for the whole race.

Normally I'd say Nibali wouldn't have the form but he's building up nicely so we'll see. Again, a lot depends on his mentality.

 

[ferryman]

Tricky one but I will go for Frank Schleck.

The theory behind the pick is a 2010 Team Schleck plan of: a) Andy wins Le Tour thanks to big bro's help in the mountains (the best laid plans and all that but almost nevertheless); b) Andy reciprocates at the Vuelta. Plan A fail but Plan B very much achievable Just a take on it