Vuelta Winner

[Rocksteady]

....Many of these are because they are pure mountain goats who need it steep and lost time in time trials. However, many of the riders who compete for the Tour de France could not compete for the Giro d'Italia or Vuelta a España. This is because they are part of that generation of riders who make their gains in the time trials and merely hold on in the mountains; this is easier to do on the long, gradual ascents of the Tour, but when faced with a super-steep ascent like Zoncolán, Angliru, the Mortirolo or Bola del Mundo, they'll haemorrhage time - as we saw from Levi last year in the Giro. ...

If Vande Velde is hanging tough with Basque, Colombian and Galician mountain goats in week 3, then something is very wrong.

But isn't that what Menchov did when he won his Vueltas? Aren't Menchov and VDV very similar in style? Or are you thinking that VDV can't hang on when Menchov (if he is in form, which I don't think he will be) could?

 

[theyoungest]

But isn't that what Menchov did when he won his Vueltas? Aren't Menchov and VDV very similar in style? Or are you thinking that VDV can't hang on when Menchov (if he is in form, which I don't think he will be) could?

Isn't this self-evident? An on-form Menchov will outclimb Vande Velde 99% of the time.

 

[Rocksteady]

Isn't this self-evident? An on-form Menchov will outclimb Vande Velde 99% of the time.

Agreed, but not by that much. I would put them in the same group of riders with Menchov having a slight advantage in both climbing and TT. My point is, that type of rider has won the Vuelta before. Its not always a mountain goat that wins. I think at the end of the day, form (and accidents) will be the telling story for all the contenders. I'm looking forward to a great race.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Menchov is a MUCH, MUCH better climber than Vande Velde. He was the only one to put the bunch under pressure in the 2008 Tour on Prato Nervoso, but he fell off there. He was the best climber in the 2007 Vuelta (not to mention that that was a much les tough route than the 2010 one). And in the 2009 Giro, he held on to the back wheel of di Luca with iron strength while Leipheimer - another defensive GT rider who I consider superior to Vande Velde - floundered on the really steep stuff.

Don't let his generally defensive tactics fool you into thinking that Menchov isn't an elite climber, because he is. Vande Velde, on the other hand, is not. He's a Tour de France rider, and that's no criticism, I've just not seen anything from him that convinces me that he could stick it out on the steep stuff. And with his team split between GC aims and sprinting, he won't have anything like a strong enough team to defend the leader's jersey in the final week, when the mountains come thick and fast and the likes of Soler and Mosquera would be wanting to put pressure on him.

 

[karlboss]

Millar and Zabriskie will make it over Xorret del Catí with the leaders? You're either very biased or very optimistic. Even Samuel Sánchez was dropped there last year... if one of Soler or Antón's minions set an infernal pace up there, Millar is toast. Zabriskie... well, he's not too bad with a long, gradual climb, so he'll probably be OK when they're climbing to Pal, but I've seen nothing that makes me think he'll do anything other than get dropped on Xorret del Catí.

Now you will have to explain to me how enough mountain help equates to will make it over the top with the best climbers in the world. On a stage like this, enough mountain help I would consider to be get to the bottom with the leaders, because at grades like those drafting isn't doing anything for you. It's only 3.8km, If he is a contender he'll drop a minute, which should be about the difference from the TTT. It's only stage 8, plenty of time to say it was just a bad day and convince us he really is a contender.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

But isn't that what Menchov did when he won his Vueltas? Aren't Menchov and VDV very similar in style? Or are you thinking that VDV can't hang on when Menchov (if he is in form, which I don't think he will be) could?

Dude, an on-form Menchov could respond to accelerations of a doped up to Di Luca, and in parts of the Tour he could respond to accelerations of Contador and Andy Schleck themselves..
He's also got a pretty nasty finishing kick in mountain stages that more than once won him the stage and even won him seconds outsprinting others.
Vandevelde is not even close to that kind of capability.

Menchov is the countering type of rider, but he DOES have an real acceleration uphilll. That's very different from the Vandevelde/Leipheimer profile of rider.
I don't know where Menchov got the image of a 'just able to hang on' type of climber like Vandevelde or Leipheimer. But he is not. Never has been.
Like Liberty Seguros already stated, you are being delulded by his defensive tactics.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The TTT is only 14km, you know. If he pulls out a minute over even Euskaltel and Xacobeo in 14km in the TTT I'll be shocked.

And even if he can drop a minute and still be a contender, he isn't going to win this race, not unless he climbs with the absolute best on every other climb and then takes time out of them in the ITT. And even then, he then has to defend it with a team of time triallists and sprinters on Bola del Mundo. He will probably be able to top 10 if he doesn't bonk completely somewhere. But win? No way, not on these climbs. If it were all TdF climbs, I'd say it was unlikely but possible. But on these ones? No way.

 

[taiwan]

Menchov: he would've had to go deep for the third place at the Tour. He may have put himself out of contention like at last year's second GT.

 

[karlboss]

The TTT is only 14km, you know. If he pulls out a minute over even Euskaltel and Xacobeo in 14km in the TTT I'll be shocked.

And even if he can drop a minute and still be a contender, he isn't going to win this race, not unless he climbs with the absolute best on every other climb and then takes time out of them in the ITT. And even then, he then has to defend it with a team of time triallists and sprinters on Bola del Mundo. He will probably be able to top 10 if he doesn't bonk completely somewhere. But win? No way, not on these climbs. If it were all TdF climbs, I'd say it was unlikely but possible. But on these ones? No way.

I have sources everywhere from 13 to 16.5km even the official site has 13 and 14.4. giro TTT Garmin 1:13 over xacobeo over 20km ...1:13*13/20=47.5 or use 16.5 60 seconds, close enough to a minute no?

On the rest we agree. At best Vdv takes an extraordinarily optimistic 4 minutes on the climbers in the TTs. I see him losing that much up el bola. There are 4 others where he'll lose time. At best top 10. However he'll appear to be a contender till about st 14 or 15.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I have sources everywhere from 13 to 16.5km even the official site has 13 and 14.4. giro TTT Garmin 1:13 over xacobeo over 20km ...1:13*13/20=47.5 or use 16.5 60 seconds, close enough to a minute no?

On the rest we agree. At best Vdv takes an extraordinarily optimistic 4 minutes on the climbers in the TTs. I see him losing that much up el bola. There are 4 others where he'll lose time. At best top 10. However he'll appear to be a contender till about st 14 or 15.

That Giro TTT is a bit different though, featuring a Xaco shorn of its GC contender and without any GC aspirations.

In the recent Vuelta a Burgos TTT (21,3km), Xacobeo were 14" off victory, and ahead of the likes of Caisse, Quick Step and Sky. I suggest that a TTT from within a month of the race and featuring many of the same people will be fairly relevant. Also, they placed four riders in the top 10 of the Volta a Portugal ITT a handful of days later. Xaco are not as bad against the clock as you'd imagine, and I cannot see them losing over a minute in just 14km.

 

[hrotha]

I have sources everywhere from 13 to 16.5km even the official site has 13 and 14.4. giro TTT Garmin 1:13 over xacobeo over 20km ...1:13*13/20=47.5 or use 16.5 60 seconds, close enough to a minute no?

On the rest we agree. At best Vdv takes an extraordinarily optimistic 4 minutes on the climbers in the TTs. I see him losing that much up el bola. There are 4 others where he'll lose time. At best top 10. However he'll appear to be a contender till about st 14 or 15.

Now an in-form, not crashing Vande Velde can barely finish in the top 10? I think you guys went a bit too far with the balancing act. Let's put him at 6th or so.

 

[staubsauger]

that giro ttt is not even close to be representative. xacobeo had no motivation to perform as good as possible there. their whole invatation to that years edition was founded on mosquera who got injured few weeks before it starts. so all their tactics were gone. the only thing the could do and which they have done there at least than, was trying to attack every day. so there was no reason for them to pull for a strong result in the ttt.

 

[Ryaguas]

Isn't this self-evident? An on-form Menchov will outclimb Vande Velde 99% of the time.

If some ppl really believes that in-form Pope can't match the likes of Contador, Andy or any other in a Climb, He can think that his tactics has been effectives...

I don't know why we are talking about Menchov and VDV being in the same level... this is totally unrealistic! They are very similar riders but in diff levels...

If you want to see the level that Xacobeo will have in the TTT in La Vuelta, you have to see their performance in the TTT in Burgos... their just lost 14'' and that is nothing... Mosquera will put more time on everybody in the mountains easily...

 

[ericthesportsman6]

But isn't that what Menchov did when he won his Vueltas? Aren't Menchov and VDV very similar in style? Or are you thinking that VDV can't hang on when Menchov (if he is in form, which I don't think he will be) could?

They are not similar style at all. A lot of people don't realize that Menchov actually has an awesome acceleration on climbs. He's capable of winning uphill sprints, and on best form, can match the accelerations of the world's best pure climbers. (Contador, Ricco, Schleck)

 

[karlboss]

Hrotha: 6 th is top 10 is it not? it's certainly not top 5. I take top 10 as meaning anything 6-10.

One race independently is rarely indicitive of another single race. Let's take the Giro TTT...Xacebeo lost over a minute so could be expected to do so again, but as you say, had little motivation, no mosquera and possibly (pretty big if, I think it was the best they could do at the time) not their best squad.
Or you could run with Burgos, where they lost 14 seconds over a similar distance. To detract from their performance, I could point to the riders on the squads around them, big teams, not so many big TT names and certainly nothing like a stacked garmin team.

Tell you what if Garmin beat xacebeo by more than a minute, find a hat and eat it, if they get within 14 seconds I'll find one and eat it. I have a feeling neither of us will be eating a hat. It is infact my argument against Vandevelde winning. That even on his best TT form and the spaniards worst, he can't win the vuelta.

 

[boardhanger]

Dude, an on-form Menchov could respond to accelerations of a doped up to Di Luca, and in parts of the Tour he could respond to accelerations of Contador and Andy Schleck themselves..
He's also got a pretty nasty finishing kick in mountain stages that more than once won him the stage and even won him seconds outsprinting others.
Vandevelde is not even close to that kind of capability.

Menchov is the countering type of rider, but he DOES have an real acceleration uphilll. That's very different from the Vandevelde/Leipheimer profile of rider.
I don't know where Menchov got the image of a 'just able to hang on' type of climber like Vandevelde or Leipheimer. But he is not. Never has been.
Like Liberty Seguros already stated, you are being delulded by his defensive tactics.

Normaly I don't agree with Dekker alot. But he/she is spot on with this post. Finally.

 

[hrotha]

Hrotha: 6 th is top 10 is it not? it's certainly not top 5. I take top 10 as meaning anything 6-10.

Okay, I'll admit I was a bit too eager so I read "top 10 at best" as implying he'd barely make it to the top 10, if at all. My bad. Personally I think anything from 5th to 10th is possible, but this being the Vuelta and this being VDV he'll probably abandon or finish 36th or whatever.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Seriously, all this Soler talk.. Where do you get your information that he will ride?

All I've heard is that he isn't going.

This is Caisse d'Epargne's team:

ARROYO DURAN David ESP
BRUSEGHIN Marzio ITA
ERVITI OLLO Imanol ESP
GARCIA ACOSTA Jose Vicente ESP
LOPEZ GARCIA David ESP
PASAMONTES RODRIGUEZ Luis ESP
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben ESP
SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon ESP
URAN URAN Rigoberto COL

 

[Sasquatch]

Uran and Arroyo and Caisse's best chances. If Soler rides, he will try and get the KOM.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Seriously, all this Soler talk.. Where do you get your information that he will ride?

All I've heard is that he isn't going.

This is Caisse d'Epargne's team:

ARROYO DURAN David ESP
BRUSEGHIN Marzio ITA
ERVITI OLLO Imanol ESP
GARCIA ACOSTA Jose Vicente ESP
LOPEZ GARCIA David ESP
PASAMONTES RODRIGUEZ Luis ESP
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben ESP
SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon ESP
URAN URAN Rigoberto COL

The team was submitted in July, when Soler was out injured. The plan was for him to ride the Tour, hence he wasn't on the original Vuelta list, but because he missed it due to injury, he was placed on the reserve list for the Vuelta, and Plaza was upgraded from reserve to the Tour team. The plan has been for Soler to ride the Vuelta for some time, health permitting, and Ryo claims to have confirmed this in conversation with Neil Stephens at the Eneco Tour; they want to get Soler through some warmup races before inserting him into the team, because Unzué is notoriously careful with his riders, probably why he's such a good development guy.

 

[Frosty]

Van de velde says he isnt going for GC after taking three weeks off the bike.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vande-velde-to-ride-the-vuelta-but-reveals-he-almost-quit-the-sport

 

[Rocksteady]

Van de velde says he isnt going for GC after taking three weeks off the bike.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vande-velde-to-ride-the-vuelta-but-reveals-he-almost-quit-the-sport

Yeah, He will be working for Tommy D. My Garmin aspirations are that they both finish!! (And Farrar in the sprints).

Glad VDV didn't quit. And who knows, we might see Tommy D. not self-destruct and have a good 3 weeks on a bike. I'm not counting on it though.

 

[Cobblestoned]

Euskaltel-Euskadi @ Vuelta:

Igor Antón, Beñat Intxausti, Egoi Martínez, Gorka Verdugo, Mikel Nieve, Koldo Fernández, Juan José Oroz, Pablo Urtasun en Amets Txurruka


venga, venga Igor !

 

[Ryaguas]

Van de velde says he isnt going for GC after taking three weeks off the bike.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vande-velde-to-ride-the-vuelta-but-reveals-he-almost-quit-the-sport

Quite sad his story... I hope that he can do great in La Vuelta...

 

[nvpacchi]

Euskaltel-Euskadi @ Vuelta:

Igor Antón, Beñat Intxausti, Egoi Martínez, Gorka Verdugo, Mikel Nieve, Koldo Fernández, Juan José Oroz, Pablo Urtasun en Amets Txurruka


venga, venga Igor !

Good to see Amets has recovered from his Tour injury!