Califootman said:
I think there is little doubt Contador was on more than bread and water for all of those GT wins. That is why I think he needs to come clean now about it and get ahead of any future "revelations". As LA's case has shown, no matter how big/powerful you are... the truth comes out eventually.
So he would probably lose two or three more GT victories on top of the two he has already lost. He might be have only the 2012 Vuelta to his name after the admission. But what is important for Contador now is to keep cycling so he has the opportunity to win more GTs. I think he has the ability to win them "clean" (i.e., as relatively clean as the peloton is these days). If he can continue to win several more GTs in the future, those vacated victories in the past look a little better. That's one advantage Contador has over LA... he can prove himself as a "clean" GT winner to lend credibility to any previous wins where he was doping.
We're rapidly coming to the point where cycling is going to look at the recent era as a time when doping was so rife within the peloton that it is senseless to strip a title and award it to the runner up (how long do you think Scarponi is going to hold on to the 2011 Giro title?). I think it will end up more like baseball, where certain records are just going to have an asterisk by them. A lot of GT winners will have asterisks by their names, but their names will still be in the 1st place slot. The more wins Contador can gather after he has 'fessed up and rides "clean", the more those asterisks will fade from the record books.
The other reason I think Contador should come clean is to minimize the time he has to sit out from cycling. A voluntary admission brings a lot more compassion from the public than getting caught or talking only when you are cornered. We've seen a lot of sympathy (or at least some sympathy) for the US riders who confessed... how they are working to clean up the sport... how they were in some ways pressured into doping. I think Contador overall has a pretty good public image as a relatively humble, nice guy... capitalize on that and play the "little boy from Pinto" card to full effect. Tell the public that those mean team bosses forced him into it. Who wouldnt' believe that of JB after reading the USADA documents? I'm pretty sure Contador could slide by with a 6-month ban from the Spanish doping authorities (not sure if it would count as a 2nd offense since it would be prior to his clen doping). He might have to worry about WADA appealing for more, but I'm not sure they'd bother. Again, this would be the cyclist that many consider the greatest of the current era, voluntarily coming forward and opening up about his past in an effort to lead the peloton and the cycling world into the cleaner, greener pastures of a new era. Don't tell me he wouldn't get a lot of goodwill for doing that.
Will he do it? Probably not. But the risk he runs is that he will get exposed in some of the future fallout from the USADA investigation, and if he gets caught he will certainly face a longer suspension and all his past (and likely any future) palmares will be viewed much more suspiciously. What he needs to consider is where his legacy in cycling will reside. Will it be in the same category as Armstrong and Indurain ("Legends of doping"?) Or will he be able to move it more toward the cleaner legends of the sport?
I agree with you a long way down the road. But not quite.
I personally think that Contador is a kind and nice person, humble but ambitious. He has repeatedly said that Armstrong was his idol from a very early age. The fact that he ends up on the same team as Armstrong was probably his biggest mistake.
We know what a manipulative and dominant pri ck Armstrong is as a person, and it has probably not been easy to know that you as both a better person and a better cyclist, had to realize that you would have little chance of winning a grand tour race where Armstrong participated, well knowing how juiced he was.
Of course, Contador always been aware of the organized doping on Discovery during the Armstrong and JB era, also on the Astana team, but in the end it's your choice if you choose to dope, but it has certainly not been easy to say no thanks, we now know that, and being a young talent under his biggest idol, it would be almost impossible to say no.
If Contador already doped during Manolo Saiz is not a subject for me, it would all just be guessing, and not have any relevance to the facts.
The question is what is best for the sport today, how do we move forward?
Personally I think it is a minority who can say they have never doped themselves.
Will it have any positive effect if so half the peloton admitted doping?
None!
There will always be someone who does not dare to stand up, for one reason or another.
Although I do not think that Contador will come forward with concessions, for the simple reason he would then risk a lifetime ban if he did.
Will the solution be to grant amnesty to all who stand up?
Perhaps, it is certainly a possibility.
But again, personally, I have the attitude that if you're cheating then it's out, and it applies to all: riders, sports directors, masseurs, drivers or whatever you do within the sport, if you are active it¨s out.
The only solution would be to clean the UCI house out completely, even dissolve it if necessarily, We need to have complete transparency and an entire new structure.
The day riders, sponsors and the entire sport have faith to the governy body, then we can move forward, but time is essential.