What is the right stage for AC to get the "yellow"?

[step23]

imho the third week after one of the Pyrenees mountain finishes would be perfect.

 

[brianf7]

imho the third week after one of the Pyrenees mountain finishes would be perfect.

None Vino wil get it and wont give it up.

 

[happychappy]

None Vino wil get it and wont give it up.

Cadel will start whining "THEY WONT LET ME PLAY WAAAAAA".

 

[SoCalCyclingfan]

Too young to be patient

If Contador were smart, he would close the gap to Evans and Schleck and let Saxobank do the work until the Pyrenees. Then attack hard and take the yellow jersey...but he's immature and lacks patience. So I won't be surprised to see him attack hard on the first summit finish and try to take the jersey. It will be interesting to see if Evans and Schleck can stay with him.

Would be hilarious if Vino stays with him and gets yellow instead!

 

[Thee_chisa]

i dunno if he will take it, at all in this tour controversy!

 

[alberto.legstrong]

If Contador were smart, he would close the gap to Evans and Schleck and let Saxobank do the work until the Pyrenees. Then attack hard and take the yellow jersey...but he's immature and lacks patience. So I won't be surprised to see him attack hard on the first summit finish and try to take the jersey. It will be interesting to see if Evans and Schleck can stay with him.

Would be hilarious if Vino stays with him and gets yellow instead!

I think he will get as much time back this weekend but it would not be a great idea to get yellow this early.

maybe stage 12?

i wouldn't be so sure on the immature and lacks patience bit. i think the consistent underestimation is a hole card he enjoys playing.

 

[SoCalCyclingfan]

Contador has talent

I'm not a fan of Contador, but he's insanely talented. Hard to imagine that he won't rule the mountains.

 

[step23]

I think he will get as much time back this weekend but it would not be a great idea to get yellow this early.

maybe stage 12?

i wouldn't be so sure on the immature and lacks patience bit. i think the consistent underestimation is a hole card he enjoys playing.

Maybe it is too early? I would think of stage 17 (imho, as I am not an expert), cos the next few stages are flat and one of them is itt.

 

[ErmOkk]

Maybe it is too early? I would think of stage 17 (imho, as I am not an expert), cos the next few stages are flat and one of them is itt.

Stage 17 is too late to take the jersey, he won't dominate the last ITT and he knows it too... He must take it up ax 3-domaines already imo.

 

[Cerberus]

Stage 17 is too late to take the jersey, he won't dominate the last ITT and he knows it too... He must take it up ax 3-domaines already imo.

I agree, but it depends on who he's not taking it from, if some non-threat can take the jersey in a breakaway on stage 8 that would be beneficial for Contador.

 

[who dat]

I agree, but it depends on who he's not taking it from, if some non-threat can take the jersey in a breakaway on stage 8 that would be beneficial for Contador.

If that doesn't eventuate I think stage 14 would be an ideal stage to take it, because he would then be able to control the race through the Pyrenees and just follow attacks. but knowing contador he will probably try to win by 5minutes plus again

 

[Publicus]

If Contador were smart, he would close the gap to Evans and Schleck and let Saxobank do the work until the Pyrenees. Then attack hard and take the yellow jersey...but he's immature and lacks patience. So I won't be surprised to see him attack hard on the first summit finish and try to take the jersey. It will be interesting to see if Evans and Schleck can stay with him.

Would be hilarious if Vino stays with him and gets yellow instead!

I take issue with your suggestion that he is immature, especially in light of how he handled last year.

As for when he takes yellow, I know he doesn't want it this weekend, but I can see him getting it on Stage 12 with the finish to Mende. Ideally if he can distance the most talented GC contenders who can TT (Evans, Menchov) then he can hold off taking yellow until Stage 17. I think he can live with a deficit to Andy (of less than 30 seconds) coming into the final TT.

 

[step23]

thanx for contributing to the topic.
Evans, Menshov yeah didn't take them into account, but Cadel has Giro in his legs and Menshov, imo would not match AC in the Pyrenees and will not be able to gain much at itt.
Mende is a 2 category climb and flat at the finish. is it possible to win time on it? many riders may survive there.

 

[scribe]

Stage 8. He will try

 

[alberto.legstrong]

I agree, but it depends on who he's not taking it from, if some non-threat can take the jersey in a breakaway on stage 8 that would be beneficial for Contador.

There's a lot of posters here who know a butload more than I do about strategy. Don't take my word for anything (unless I am right! ) But I would think if he took it (or at least made an effort) at St. 12 it would put the pressure on others to try and attack on 14 and potentially damage themselves by attacking his strength. But that thinking could be flawed as well.

like I said, ignore me, unless I am right. And if I am I will be insufferable.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Stage 8. He will try

I would think that is too soon for yellow, but he needs to try and get back as much time from Evans and Schleck without getting yellow.

On 8, He also needs to get everyone to lay their cards on the table so he knows who has the legs for a fight and who is just posing (AS, I am talkin' to you).

 

[Ryaguas]

If Contador were smart, he would close the gap to Evans and Schleck and let Saxobank do the work until the Pyrenees. Then attack hard and take the yellow jersey...but he's immature and lacks patience. So I won't be surprised to see him attack hard on the first summit finish and try to take the jersey. It will be interesting to see if Evans and Schleck can stay with him.

Would be hilarious if Vino stays with him and gets yellow instead!

He is inmature... is that so??? Dude if El Pistolero was inmature he would dropped Jani Brajkovic in Alpe D'Huez and He will used all his energy in that climb, just to say an example... People that say that don't have a ****ing clue about AC... that's pretty sad...

Stage 17 is too late to take the jersey, he won't dominate the last ITT and he knows it too... He must take it up ax 3-domaines already imo.

Nah you are understimating El Pistolero... he can do it pretty good in the ITT at least better than Cadel, Menchov, Basso and Andy, the problem with that ITT is that is pretty flat there is not even a hill, that is the contra with this ITT for AC...

thanx for contributing to the topic.
Evans, Menshov yeah didn't take them into account, but Cadel has Giro in his legs and Menshov, imo would not match AC in the Pyrenees and will not be able to gain much at itt.
Mende is a 2 category climb and flat at the finish. is it possible to win time on it? many riders may survive there.

Menchov of course is not so good climbing like El Pistolero but Rabobank is a climbing machine they have strong names that can climb and do it very well, like Gesink and Tankink to say some names... About Evans the BMC is pretty weak and he is going to be alone in the 1st and NC categories climbs...

IMHO Liquigas is going to attack early in the Pyrenees cuz they need to reduce the gap that Basso and Kreuziger have... they are going to take yellow and they will have the responsability to defend it while AC is going to follow them close in the GC...

El Pistolero is going to take the Maillot Jaune in the Tourmalet... he is going to attack not once but twice cuz they have to be there twice this tour... that is the oportunity that he will be looking for, he doesn't want to burn out the team so fast... that is what I think...

P.S: I'm going with Liquigas for the pyrenees... watch out with Kreuziger and Basso... If Basso is well recovered from Il Giro he will do it great in the mountains just remember Zoncolan

 

[Ryaguas]

On 8, He also needs to get everyone to lay their cards on the table so he knows who has the legs for a fight and who is just posing (AS, I am talkin' to you).

Well he need everyone laying their cards on the table but he is not going to provoke that... I think that he is going to follow the advice from El Cannibal... he is going to wait for the others and see what they can do and how good their legs are for that moment... but one thing is sure, In La Col du Tourmalet he is going to go BIG and try to create real gap agaisnt everyone... he and Vino in the Tourmalet uffff... I just want to watch it! =D

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

The only people calling AC immature are those who only read the pro-Lance propaganda in the US media. I don't see how people can call themselves cycling fans and propagate this tripe.

Riders who are immature and lack patience don't usually win all 3 Grand Tours. What, he's 27 and has 4 GTs under his belt? Yeah, he's "immature".

 

[alberto.legstrong]

The only people calling AC immature are those who only read the pro-Lance propaganda in the US media. I don't see how people can call themselves cycling fans and propagate this tripe.

Riders who are immature and lack patience don't usually win all 3 Grand Tours. What, he's 27 and has 4 GTs under his belt? Yeah, he's "immature".

I suppose one could view it as a compliment. That he has even more potential than we see. would that were so!

Unfortunately, it is said out of ignorance. Who ya gonna believe? Lance, Pill and Phaul or your own lyin' eyes?

 

[Thee_chisa]

contador won't be looking to take it until the last week as his team isn't that strong.

 

[Ryaguas]

Unfortunately, it is said out of ignorance. Who ya gonna believe? Lance, Pill and Phaul or your own lyin' eyes?

Hey watch your mouth!!! you are saying a blasphemy!!!! According to the religion that Lance's fans follow, that is La église du Lance, everything that Lance, Phil and Paul says is the TOTAL TRUTH and you have to believe it! so take care cuz this kind of blasphemy will send you to the hell... a hell where the punishment is get beaten by Lance everytime and you can't win him!

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Maybe it is too early? I would think of stage 17 (imho, as I am not an expert), cos the next few stages are flat and one of them is itt.

If he still hasn't gotten yellow by then (17), I am going to have to send my family out of the house while I watch. I would think that not being in yellow that late would mean either something has gone wrong for him or someone has emerged or had one great day that is really challenging for him to overcome.

Here's hoping it's not later than 14.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Hey watch your mouth!!! you are saying a blasphemy!!!! According to the religion that Lance's fans follow, that is La église du Lance, everything that Lance, Phil and Paul says is the TOTAL TRUTH and you have to believe it! so take care cuz this kind of blasphemy will send you to the hell... a hell where the punishment is get beaten by Lance everytime and you can't win him!

A worse punishment would be to have to watch the post stage interviews last year over and over and over and over.

 

[Magnus]

thanx for contributing to the topic.
Evans, Menshov yeah didn't take them into account, but Cadel has Giro in his legs and Menshov, imo would not match AC in the Pyrenees and will not be able to gain much at itt.
Mende is a 2 category climb and flat at the finish. is it possible to win time on it? many riders may survive there.

He took 24 seconds on this years Paris-Nice stage to mende so it is possible to win some time there. If he climbs it at full gas I doubt that the closest chasers will be of the kind that take much time back on AC on the flat.
IMO stage 10 and 12 are the hardest stages to handle for a weak team. On the other hand I don't think he'll pass an opportunity to take time on his closest rivals so if he's the legs he'll probably make an arcalis'ish attack on the Avoriaz-stage.