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What is the right stage for AC to get the "yellow"?

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May 15, 2009
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Magnus said:
He took 24 seconds on this years Paris-Nice stage to mende so it is possible to win some time there. If he climbs it at full gas I doubt that the closest chasers will be of the kind that take much time back on AC on the flat.
IMO stage 10 and 12 are the hardest stages to handle for a weak team. On the other hand I don't think he'll pass an opportunity to take time on his closest rivals so if he's the legs he'll probably make an arcalis'ish attack on the Avoriaz-stage.

24 seconds?:confused: Valverde-Sanchez pair lost only 10 seconds.

11 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto 11.18
12 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel
13 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC
14 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team
15 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) T-Mobile Team 11.55
16 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank
17 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner
18 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne
19 Leonardo Piepoli (Ita) Saunier Duval-Prodir 12.01
20 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 12.07

2005 results suggest that the strongest riders should come to the finish together.
 
Apr 8, 2010
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Delicato said:
24 seconds?:confused: Valverde-Sanchez pair lost only 10 seconds.
Oh, my bad. Looked at the GC after the stage. But still a short steep climb should be good for AC and maybe not so much for riders like Basso, Armstrong and Evans.
 
May 15, 2009
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Magnus said:
Oh, my bad. Looked at the GC after the stage. But still a short steep climb should be good for AC and maybe not so much for riders like Basso, Armstrong and Evans.

Well, if you look at 2005 results, these folks were the best among GC contenders:) And Evans actually likes short steep climbs (his win on Mur de Huy).
 
May 31, 2010
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Delicato said:
Well, if you look at 2005 results, these folks were the best among GC contenders:) And Evans actually likes short steep climbs (his win on Mur de Huy).

gawd, imagine BMC having to defend it, that is funny
 
Apr 8, 2010
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Delicato said:
Well, if you look at 2005 results, these folks were the best among GC contenders:) And Evans actually likes short steep climbs (his win on Mur de Huy).

Well to be pedantic the GC after the stage was
1 Armstrong
2 Basso 2'46"
3 Rasmussen 3'46"
4 Ullrich 5'58"
5 Mancebo 7'08"
6 Leipheimer 8'12"
7 Evans 9'49"
8 Vino 10'11"

So some GC men took 37 seconds on others :)

I suppose you're right about Mur de Huy. It was my impression though that it's more about timing on that climb. The grade on Huy seems to vary a lot where Mende seems to be more constant.
 
He isn't going to fart around worrying about which stage he should take the jersey.
I don't think the Alps offer his best opportunities. He may, or may not attack at Morzine, or on the Madeleine.
Mende, Aix Trois and the Tourmalet, for the general contenders, plus the ITT for Schleckette.
The team scenario is overplayed IMO. Astana can do the job as well as the rest.
 
Jun 9, 2010
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ferryman said:
Nah it would be great. Could be the making of some of the BMC guys. Seriously I would like to see how they would get on. No seriously.

And you will see it! I'm pretty sure that Cadel is going to be yellow after sunday... maybe tomorrow but he is going to be in yellow in a winkle :D I'm also one of those that want to see if BMC can do DA JOB... for the flat stages there is Captain America Big George but for mountains is where BMC is pretty weak...
 
Jul 5, 2010
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We'll see

Moose McKnuckles said:
The only people calling AC immature are those who only read the pro-Lance propaganda in the US media. I don't see how people can call themselves cycling fans and propagate this tripe.

Riders who are immature and lack patience don't usually win all 3 Grand Tours. What, he's 27 and has 4 GTs under his belt? Yeah, he's "immature". :rolleyes:

Wow, you guys are so sensitive! I can't make a single subjective comment about AC without his fanboys starting to cry. I think AC is insanely talented, but at 26 in last year's TdF, he made some moves that in my opinion showed poor judgment due to a lack of experience. Are you going to argue that it was a good idea when he isolated himself with the Schleck brothers? I'm not interested in revisiting the nonsense about LA/JB vs AC, just looking at the way he rode his race.

All I'm saying is that he's emotional sometimes, and that may influence the choices he makes on the mountain...i.e., immature.
 
Jun 9, 2010
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SoCalCyclingfan said:
Wow, you guys are so sensitive! I can't make a single subjective comment about AC without his fanboys starting to cry. I think AC is insanely talented, but at 26 in last year's TdF, he made some moves that in my opinion showed poor judgment due to a lack of experience. Are you going to argue that it was a good idea when he isolated himself with the Schleck brothers? I'm not interested in revisiting the nonsense about LA/JB vs AC, just looking at the way he rode his race.

All I'm saying is that he's emotional sometimes, and that may influence the choices he makes on the mountain...i.e., immature.

No mate... that time he was with Kloeden and He asked him if he was OK cuz he was going to attack and he said "Yes I'm ok" so El Pistolero attack but Kloeden cracked... that was a shame cuz Kloeden could have finished Top 4...

You people who says that AC is inmature have no ****ing idea... he has been in a lot of situations and in this tour he is showing that he learned from that situations... that is something that the Uniballer never did...
 

flicker

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Aug 17, 2009
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SoCalCyclingfan said:
Wow, you guys are so sensitive! I can't make a single subjective comment about AC without his fanboys starting to cry. I think AC is insanely talented, but at 26 in last year's TdF, he made some moves that in my opinion showed poor judgment due to a lack of experience. Are you going to argue that it was a good idea when he isolated himself with the Schleck brothers? I'm not interested in revisiting the nonsense about LA/JB vs AC, just looking at the way he rode his race.

All I'm saying is that he's emotional sometimes, and that may influence the choices he makes on the mountain...i.e., immature.

True my Lord Armstrong is counting on Contadors impulsiveness Alberto did make a mistake last year, if Alberto had blown it would have been bad for Astana. But Alberto is reaching his peak strength. Watch out.
 
Jul 5, 2010
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Ryaguas said:
No mate... that time he was with Kloeden and He asked him if he was OK cuz he was going to attack and he said "Yes I'm ok" so El Pistolero attack but Kloeden cracked... that was a shame cuz Kloeden could have finished Top 4...

You people who says that AC is inmature have no ****ing idea... he has been in a lot of situations and in this tour he is showing that he learned from that situations... that is something that the Uniballer never did...

You just made my point for me. Contador didn't need to attack at that point. All he needed to do was stay with Kloden and respond to attacks. Instead, he wound up alone up the rode with the two rivals who were potentially the most dangerous (outside of the ITT). If he had had a mechanical at that point, he could have lost the whole tour.
 
Jun 9, 2010
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SoCalCyclingfan said:
You just made my point for me. Contador didn't need to attack at that point. All he needed to do was stay with Kloden and respond to attacks. Instead, he wound up alone up the rode with the two rivals who were potentially the most dangerous (outside of the ITT). If he had had a mechanical at that point, he could have lost the whole tour.

The thing with that attack was to help Kloeden and drop The Schlecks if that works well great but if not Kloeden and him would have gone easily to the finish line... cuz if he was attacking for himself he wouldn't try to wait for Kloeden a few kilometers after when he saw that Kloeden was cracked...
 
Jul 22, 2009
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Ryaguas said:
No mate... that time he was with Kloeden and He asked him if he was OK cuz he was going to attack and he said "Yes I'm ok" so El Pistolero attack but Kloeden cracked... that was a shame cuz Kloeden could have finished Top 4...

You people who says that AC is inmature have no ****ing idea... he has been in a lot of situations and in this tour he is showing that he learned from that situations... that is something that the Uniballer never did...


You forgot the rest of the story when he let up and took the shreks over the hill and through the finish line. The end.

No time on non-team gc hopefuls and no stage win. AC is all class though
 

SpartacusRox

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May 6, 2010
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SoCalCyclingfan said:
If Contador were smart, he would close the gap to Evans and Schleck and let Saxobank do the work until the Pyrenees. Then attack hard and take the yellow jersey...but he's immature and lacks patience. So I won't be surprised to see him attack hard on the first summit finish and try to take the jersey. It will be interesting to see if Evans and Schleck can stay with him.

Would be hilarious if Vino stays with him and gets yellow instead!

I totally agree with the first past of your post. Not the second part though, I think he now does have the maturity. another scenario may be that he takes it but doesn't bother to defend it on the run through to the pyrenees.

Vivo has no show of staying with them, but he will go till he blows in support of AC. He will always be within a minute or two at the finishes of the big climbs.
 
Jul 5, 2010
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SpartacusRox said:
I totally agree with the first past of your post. Not the second part though, I think he now does have the maturity. another scenario may be that he takes it but doesn't bother to defend it on the run through to the pyrenees.

Vivo has no show of staying with them, but he will go till he blows in support of AC. He will always be within a minute or two at the finishes of the big climbs.

I'm just looking for a good race in the mountains, with the strongest rider using the best stategy coming out on top. Expecting some drama and hoping the GC rivals don't disappoint.

If AC rides a smart race, it's his to lose.
 
May 15, 2010
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Mellow Velo said:
He isn't going to fart around worrying about which stage he should take the jersey.
I don't think the Alps offer his best opportunities. He may, or may not attack at Morzine, or on the Madeleine.
Mende, Aix Trois and the Tourmalet, for the general contenders, plus the ITT for Schleckette.
The team scenario is overplayed IMO. Astana can do the job as well as the rest.

But that is the premise of the thread. I don't think he is laying in bed wondering which stage he should get it. That's our job. That's why they give us the internet access.

So which stage will he end up getting it?
 
According to him-the Alps will only help to wear down the competition-& since he's behind Evans & Schleck- I expect him to close those gaps in those stages- then he will get the MJ prior to the tourmalet stage-where he will go all out to widen the time gaps as much as possible.
 
May 15, 2010
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Anyone want to change their prediction afterstage 8?

I think I may have to revise. Let's see how Tuesday goes first.
 
Contador still has to be considered the favorite but there have been signs he is not quite as good as he was last year. He rode well in the major mountain stage of the Dauphine but he didn't dominate, and again today he rode well but couldn't match the final acceleration of Andy Schleck at the top of the climb.

Contador did state in one of the pre-race articles that he felt the tour this year was all about the final week in the Pyrenees and that the Alps would not be decisive. Contador is clearly targeting that final week and we may not know for sure how well he is riding this year until the race gets there.
 
I'd like to see him get it on Ax 3 Domains. Actually, I think I'd like to see it at any point before the TT. There is some chance right now that he doesn't win a stage and wins the Tour.

I hope he pours it on on the Ax 3 and gets the stage, wearing yellow all through the Pyrenees.
 
red_flanders said:
I'd like to see him get it on Ax 3 Domains. Actually, I think I'd like to see it at any point before the TT. There is some chance right now that he doesn't win a stage and wins the Tour.

I hope he pours it on on the Ax 3 and gets the stage, wearing yellow all through the Pyrenees.

That sounds very plausible. Andy will have to attack, attack, attack all through the Pyrenees anyway. He just has to sit on his wheel.