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What is the right stage for AC to get the "yellow"?

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May 13, 2009
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Bertie rode brilliant today. He matched every of Andy's accelerations. I don't know if he could have counterattacked, but if so, he did the sensible thing to just team up with Andy and put time in everybody else.
 
Apr 26, 2010
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Cobblestones said:
Bertie rode brilliant today. He matched every of Andy's accelerations. I don't know if he could have counterattacked, but if so, he did the sensible thing to just team up with Andy and put time in everybody else.
Pretty smart for a "motormouth" "punk" who has "lots to learn".

He even used Voigt, Shleck's domestique as his own on a climb.

And he still has TT up in his sleeve.
________
Vaporizers
 
Cobblestones said:
Bertie rode brilliant today. He matched every of Andy's accelerations. I don't know if he could have counterattacked, but if so, he did the sensible thing to just team up with Andy and put time in everybody else.

He's riding the perfect race so far IMO. Did not try to take the yellow at Avioraz. Why not burn BMC down? Did not try and take time on Andy now. Why not put pressure on Saxo to burn matches in the next two hot, grueling stages across the center of France?

He's either on the limit and doing what he can to win by a little bit at the end, or playing a tactically perfect race. The Pyrenees will tell. He can't really want to win a Tour hoping he'll win the last TT.
 
Mar 17, 2009
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Contador is riding like someone who believes it's his Tour to lose. It seems like he's pretty happy to just stay within a minute of Andy; maybe he's planning to do it all in the ITT. Could be risky thinking-- a simple mechanical or flat could cost him the Tour if that's his plan.
 
Jul 22, 2009
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2wheels said:
Contador is riding like someone who believes it's his Tour to lose. It seems like he's pretty happy to just stay within a minute of Andy; maybe he's planning to do it all in the ITT. Could be risky thinking-- a simple mechanical or flat could cost him the Tour if that's his plan.
You can't have what you can't take
 
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Anonymous

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scribe said:
You can't have what you can't take


??

You see the look on ASchleck's face at the end of the stage? He could not drop AC and he's concerned. My opinion.
 
red_flanders said:
He's riding the perfect race so far IMO. Did not try to take the yellow at Avioraz. Why not burn BMC down? Did not try and take time on Andy now. Why not put pressure on Saxo to burn matches in the next two hot, grueling stages across the center of France?

He's either on the limit and doing what he can to win by a little bit at the end, or playing a tactically perfect race. The Pyrenees will tell. He can't really want to win a Tour hoping he'll win the last TT.

I think it is all about the Pyrenees for him. No need to burn matches where you don't have to and today was not a day to burn matches trying to drop Andy. I suspect AX-3 will be an epic battle.
 
Jul 22, 2009
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Scott SoCal said:
??

You see the look on ASchleck's face at the end of the stage? He could not drop AC and he's concerned. My opinion.
dropping AC would have been a nice byproduct of what needed to happen, and that was to catch sanchez up the road.
 
Scott SoCal said:
??

You see the look on ASchleck's face at the end of the stage? He could not drop AC and he's concerned. My opinion.

Swordsman posted a post-race comment attributed to Andy where Andy said he gave AC everything he had today on Madeleine. Assuming that's accurate, I say psychologically he just took a serious blow. You can't proclaim yourself the strongest climber on Sunday only to have that disproved two days later.

He's young still. He's definitely got the talent to beat AC at some point (even this race). I think mentally he has to step his game up a bit. That can happen during this race too.

Comment from Velo News Article:

Schleck said he believed that he and Contador were both riding “at about the same level.” With the Saxo Bank man holding the upper hand by 41 seconds, he added, “It’s now up to him to attack in the Pyrenees.

I don't think Andy gets it. AC doesn't have to attack. Andy does.
 
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Publicus said:
Swordsman posted a post-race comment attributed to Andy where Andy said he gave AC everything he had today on Madeleine. Assuming that's accurate, I say psychologically he just took a serious blow. You can't proclaim yourself the strongest climber on Sunday only to have that disproved two days later.

He's young still. He's definitely got the talent to beat AC at some point (even this race). I think mentally he has to step his game up a bit. That can happen during this race too.

Comment from Velo News Article:



I don't think Andy gets it. AC doesn't have to attack. Andy does.

Yeah. Truly, the only thing AC has to do is have his team manage the break aways and mark Schleck in the mountains.

I'd say the biggest danger will be in the transition stages where there may be cross winds. Fabio, Jens, Stuey and Matti could cause some serious damage on a rolling stage where there is wind.

Beyond that, Schleck needs at least another minute on AC and probably closer to two.
 
Jul 8, 2010
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2wheels said:
Contador is riding like someone who believes it's his Tour to lose. It seems like he's pretty happy to just stay within a minute of Andy; maybe he's planning to do it all in the ITT. Could be risky thinking-- a simple mechanical or flat could cost him the Tour if that's his plan.

That was just the Alps, there is still the Pyrenees with Ax3 and the Tourmalet! There is 2 weeks from the race, that was just the beginning. Andy and Alberto had made that there is only two rider who can win this race. Now, they can attack each other to see who is the strongest.
 
Mar 18, 2009
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vcampbell said:
That was just the Alps, there is still the Pyrenees with Ax3 and the Tourmalet! There is 2 weeks from the race, that was just the beginning. Andy and Alberto had made that there is only two rider who can win this race. Now, they can attack each other to see who is the strongest.

My sense is that the race is going exactly the way AC has it planned. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's picked out the stage, and the place on that stage, where he's going to make his attack. Right now he's happy to stay with Andy S., and whittle all the other riders out of contention. Then next week he'll eliminate Andy. He seems very calm, focused, and on target to me.
 
Jul 8, 2010
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Wallace said:
My sense is that the race is going exactly the way AC has it planned. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's picked out the stage, and the place on that stage, where he's going to make his attack. Right now he's happy to stay with Andy S., and whittle all the other riders out of contention. Then next week he'll eliminate Andy. He seems very calm, focused, and on target to me.

I hope that the race will be like that. The best thing is, that he has got the team to make Schleck tired. Navarro and Tiralongo are in this Tour the best domestics in my opinion.
 
Mar 22, 2010
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Wallace said:
My sense is that the race is going exactly the way AC has it planned. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's picked out the stage, and the place on that stage, where he's going to make his attack. Right now he's happy to stay with Andy S., and whittle all the other riders out of contention. Then next week he'll eliminate Andy. He seems very calm, focused, and on target to me.

I am becoming bipolar over all this. I can't handle the stress of sitting there with my clicker yelling at the screen.

2 days ago, I was worried about AC, today I think like you that this is more or less as hoped for from his perspective.

bmc is out of it. i assume that puts more strain on saxo. but they (bmc) could still play a card or two.

12, 14, 17, 18....feck...I dunno anymore...I will probably be second guessing anything I say today, tomorrow.
 
Jul 22, 2009
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Wallace said:
My sense is that the race is going exactly the way AC has it planned. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's picked out the stage, and the place on that stage, where he's going to make his attack. Right now he's happy to stay with Andy S., and whittle all the other riders out of contention. Then next week he'll eliminate Andy. He seems very calm, focused, and on target to me.

I don't see any scenario that he would have planned being down :40 to Schleck before the Pyrenees.
 
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Anonymous

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I don't see any scenario that he would have planned being down :40 to Schleck before the Pyrenees.

AC will ride 2 to 3 seconds per Kilometer faster than Schleck in the ITT. I don't see any scenario where Andy is comfortable being up (after today) by only :40.
 
scribe said:
I don't see any scenario that he would have planned being down :40 to Schleck before the Pyrenees.

I don't either, but then I think you are being a bit too cute here to expect that's what Wallace meant. My guess is that he (AC) expected to be down coming out of the first week as a result of losses on the cobbles and/or wind, with the idea of getting that time back in the Alps, if possible, but definitely in the Pyrenees. The fact that he is down only 40 seconds to a guy he can outright destroy in the final TT, while maintaining a somewhat healthy lead over the other GC contenders with the Pyrenees yet to come, means he only has to not lose time to AS and look for a stage to narrow that gap if he can.

My guess is that if he's feeling good, he tries an attack on Mende. But I think he definitely drops the gauntlet on AX-3. The fact is Andy doesn't think AC can drop him this year, but he can't possibly know that since I don't believe AC has attacked yet. I could be wrong on that last point, but I don't recall him attacking at all in the first 9 stages.
 
scribe said:
I don't see any scenario that he would have planned being down :40 to Schleck before the Pyrenees.

Probably not, but I see various scenarios where he planned to launch the main attacks in the last week. He's said (correctly) all along that he needs to peak in the last week of this race. I assume that's what his plan has been, and the current scenario fits that plan just fine. He doesn't even have to burn his team in a single meaningful or difficult flat(ish) stage the entire race if he gets yellow in the Pyrenees.

I don't see a scenario where he'd have thought he was going to be more than a minute up on Schleck at this point. He has a perfect tactical situation right now--he's the far strong TT'ist of the remaining contenders. What he probably had to worry about more before the race was someone like Evans, Leipheimer or Menchov up a minute on him at this point, and even that isn't a worry.

If you're the strongest climber and one of the strongest TT'ists, there isn't a lot to worry about. Just don't blow up and hope you have good luck.
 
Jul 26, 2009
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Publicus said:
I don't either, but then I think you are being a bit too cute here to expect that's what Wallace meant. My guess is that he (AC) expected to be down coming out of the first week as a result of losses on the cobbles and/or wind, with the idea of getting that time back in the Alps, if possible, but definitely in the Pyrenees. The fact that he is down only 40 seconds to a guy he can outright destroy in the final TT, while maintaining a somewhat healthy lead over the other GC contenders with the Pyrenees yet to come, means he only has to not lose time to AS and look for a stage to narrow that gap if he can.

My guess is that if he's feeling good, he tries an attack on Mende. But I think he definitely drops the gauntlet on AX-3. The fact is Andy doesn't think AC can drop him this year, but he can't possibly know that since I don't believe AC has attacked yet. I could be wrong on that last point, but I don't recall him attacking at all in the first 9 stages.

agree......i also thought he would expect to be down a few after stage 3, and 40 sec. with just andy in front at this stage of the race seams to work buetifully, even if berto cant gain significant time on andy but say 5, 10 , or 15 sec. on any slope no way andy can hold him off in a 50 km TT, so let saxo keep the jersey, close the gap a bit and kill it on stage 19........well at least thats what i would like to see.......:)
 
Mar 17, 2009
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Scott SoCal said:
Yeah. Truly, the only thing AC has to do is have his team manage the break aways and mark Schleck in the mountains.

I'd say the biggest danger will be in the transition stages where there may be cross winds. Fabio, Jens, Stuey and Matti could cause some serious damage on a rolling stage where there is wind.

Beyond that, Schleck needs at least another minute on AC and probably closer to two.

Totally agree with this; I've always thought that Riis's teams were the best for hammering on transitional stages and wondered why they didn't try more of it. Easier to upset Astana's applecart there than in the mountains, IMO.
 
Jul 10, 2009
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red_flanders said:
Probably not, but I see various scenarios where he planned to launch the main attacks in the last week. He's said (correctly) all along that he needs to peak in the last week of this race. I assume that's what his plan has been, and the current scenario fits that plan just fine. He doesn't even have to burn his team in a single meaningful or difficult flat(ish) stage the entire race if he gets yellow in the Pyrenees.

I don't see a scenario where he'd have thought he was going to be more than a minute up on Schleck at this point. He has a perfect tactical situation right now--he's the far strong TT'ist of the remaining contenders. What he probably had to worry about more before the race was someone like Evans, Leipheimer or Menchov up a minute on him at this point, and even that isn't a worry.

If you're the strongest climber and one of the strongest TT'ists, there isn't a lot to worry about. Just don't blow up and hope you have good luck.

AS hasn't planned this correctly. He has attacked and pushed hard to get the must-have for him - the yellow. Tdf is a marathon, you have to pace yourself. The problem is at AS age, he thinks he can ride non-stop. I think if he had yellow on his mind for just the last day, he would have paced himself better. At this rate AS will bunk in the 3rd week. AC today completely controlled the race, as if he wrote the script, after AS attacks he motioned to him as if "finished? okay lets do some sensible work and crush our rivals" AS looks gentle but the last methodical rival-killer I have seen like him is LA. If AS detects a slightly weakness, he will crush you. Ullrich could have learnt from him, and perhaps won more tdfs.
 
Feb 14, 2010
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My hope is that Contador has timed his peak as well for this as Basso did for the Giro, so that he would be at his best starting this coming weekend. I imagine it took a lot of discipline for a guy who loves to race to win to hold back his training again so he wouldn't be at his best for the Dauphine, which would have been way too early.

A lot of guys with sketchy results for the first half of the year announced that they had perfect Tour preparation and were in the form of their lives. Wiggins, Cav, Andy... I didn't believe any of them, especially with Andy having trouble staying upright recently. He won the Luxembourg TT, but as Sean Kelly said, that's nothing to go dancing in the street about. I was actually more concerned with Frank, because he's been on better form, and spent months working on his TT.

Andy's words recently ****ed me off, but the talk wasn't really bigger than a lot of guys. It's nice to see the race make them less believable every day.

When Alberto did course recon in the Alps after the Dauphine, he tweeted that it wasn't hard enough, with a :( I think that if you had told him then what the GC would look like today, he'd have been excited. Saxo Bank has to do the work the next three days unless they get someone into the break. Once they reach the mountains, though, he's been used to sitting in behind Astana or whoever instead of having his guys work for him. I don't think that will work out for him next week. Tiralongo and Navarro should go back to resting and finishing at the back of the pack. Alberto moves into yellow Sunday or Tuesday. Again, hopefully he'll be entering peak form then and Andy's will be slipping a bit because he missed a lot of training this year.

If you watch Wednesday, Alberto will be riding a bike with the names of 250 fans on it, including mine. Andy rode his up the mountain finish into the yellow jersey today, which must have been cool for his 250.

Great, very surprising race so far. Today with the man on man, uphill and downhill duel, with them chasing the break at the same time they were being chased, was pretty darned cool.
 
Feb 25, 2010
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Now agree with the people who say that:
1 AC is peaking for the 3d week
2 the Pyrenees will be decisive for the yellow
3 we haven't seen his "real" attack yet
4 his time loss to AS was expected (taking into account the 3d stage) and he's not gonna fart about that
5 he has some A and B plan for the race (probably special thanks goes to Mr. Martinelli)
Summing up: hope to see one of his solo smashing attacks for the yellow any stage on the 3d week.
Think this thread is done.