What route should ASO make for the 2018 TDF?

[rghysens]

Re: Re:

Have you seen the opening weekend proposal for the 2018 Tour de France?

It's not a proposal, it's a done deal. And the (velowire) rumours for the following stages are even better.
Stage 4 would go from La Baule to Sarzeau, a flat coastal stage for a change. Luckily there's stage 5, to Pointe de Raz. That would be a...flat coastal stage, similar to the one to Cap Fréhel in 2011. Stage 6 would be to Mur de Bretagne.
But once again, these are just rumours.

 

[Oliwright]

Froome is generally a minute faster than Geraint in a TT.
Geraint was less than a minute from Dumoulin at this Giro.
Dumoulin is great but he was helped in winning last year's TT at the tour by being able to rest on the stages beforehand.
Nevertheless, I think Dumoulin is a slightly better TTer as Froome doesn't focus on it very much.
Froome Focussed on it in 2012-2014 but since then the route hasn't had much time trialing.

In 2015 and 2016 the organizers clearly tried to make a route which suited Quintana over Froome. But we have seen Froome improve and adapt tremendously to still be dominant.
So in 2018 I expect a route very similar to 2012 with two long ITTs and a TTT or prologue to try and get a new Tour winner. Expect 100km+ of TT and limited climbs and some cobbles. Whatever they think will suit Tom.

 

[perico]

Re: Re:

How about a time trial at the length of a real stage (a shorter one)? Could be fun to watch.

0k ----medium mountain----------------------hill---------hill--------- 150k

Quintana would lose 10 minutes to Dumoulin and Froome.

Herrera would lose 8-10 minutes before the first MTF every year and they never whined about it. Lucho would've won multiple tours had they catered to him the way they do these days.

 

[yaco]

Froome is generally a minute faster than Geraint in a TT.
Geraint was less than a minute from Dumoulin at this Giro.
Dumoulin is great but he was helped in winning last year's TT at the tour by being able to rest on the stages beforehand.
Nevertheless, I think Dumoulin is a slightly better TTer as Froome doesn't focus on it very much.
Froome Focussed on it in 2012-2014 but since then the route hasn't had much time trialing.

In 2015 and 2016 the organizers clearly tried to make a route which suited Quintana over Froome. But we have seen Froome improve and adapt tremendously to still be dominant.
So in 2018 I expect a route very similar to 2012 with two long ITTs and a TTT or prologue to try and get a new Tour winner. Expect 100km+ of TT and limited climbs and some cobbles. Whatever they think will suit Tom.

Nothing more boring for the viewer to have so much ITT'ing and if you have so many Km's of TT it can make for a boring race.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

But the many and various problems with the ASO's conception of route design do not include their propensity to try to make it less likely that the favourite murders the race as a contest early on.

This is mostly true, I think dating back to when Indurain would pile up a big lead in the first, long ITT, then follow his teammates train, and the leaders into the mountains for the next two weeks. Armstrong somewhat did the same.

So in 2018 I expect a route very similar to 2012 with two long ITTs and a TTT or prologue to try and get a new Tour winner. Expect 100km+ of TT and limited climbs and some cobbles. Whatever they think will suit Tom.

That's an interesting point. Assuming Tom puts everything into the 2018 Tour, the way Froome does every year, and Lance once did. If you go back to the early 90's and Inurain's dominance, every year had TT distances well over 100km cumulatively. Some years had very long TTT's as well. One year the total between the two was over 200km, IIRC.

I again though refer to my previous suggestions. I think having a large early ITT (40km +) will benefit TT riders for certain, but I also think reducing team sizes to 6 riders prevents "trains" in the mountains, and having a very long queen mountain stage, especially as the last mountain stage, can help shatter things in dramatic fashion. People complain about how brutal they are, but if you go back just a couple decades it was somewhat common to have mountain stages where riders hit 7 hours in the saddle, and GC riders completely fractured on the last climb with big time gaps. It is not only by design of the organizers to keep it close to the end, but technology and training have made a course that took 7 hours a couple decades ago, now ridden in under six hours, and times closer on mountain stages, with more riders, plus domestiques, together at least partway up the final climb than in years gone by, when royal breaks were common. Having a 7 hour day is rough on the riders, but this can be compensated by having several shorter days during the Tour overall.