When is the smackdown on Chris Horner?

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Sorry, were you not bringing Horner up in the skiing thread just last week?

Because it was perfectly fitting in the "old age discussion" when OEB won. If it fits, I think you´d agree, it´s ok to bring CH up.
That´s what Horners win gave us: Every time an oldtimer comes up with suspect endurance performances at the highest level, Horner will be brought into discussion. I love it.

 

[Hugh Januss]

I see it more that a doped Horner was able to compete with and beat clean(er) and more fatigued riders 10 years younger (and the rest) than himself. Would the same performance in 2006/7 have got him victory?

Agreed on the fatigue part of the equation, the clean(er) portion is a matter for huge conjecture though. Either a 40 year old racing on a team that hadn't had great results in sometime and didn't want him back anyway
came up with a surefire doping protocol that was undetectable at the same time guaranteeing a win for an over the hill donkey or Horner's on the Froome plan. Oh wait those are one and the same.

 

[DirtyWorks]

john i'm puzzled..............if after 100 years of the vuelta we have 1 winner
aged 42 then statistically we might expect another similarly aged winner in the forthcoming 100 years

or am i oversimplifying things?............big numbers scare me

Mark L

Depending on whose values you use, the chances that the Vuelta has another 42 years old winner is very unlikely. One has a really big standard deviation, the other a smaller, but still extreme standard deviation.

Imagine accepting the probability as a kind of evidence.

One could deduce, "Of course, it's a younger person's game. Chris' case is an extraordinary outlier and the sport is cleaner, and XYZ and ABC..."

One could also deduce, "More proof Chris' win was not likely and not just a little unlikely. This is more evidence that he cheated/doped to win."

Both conclusions are supported. But, my pessimistic bias is the latter.

 

[ebandit]

thanks!

Depending on whose values you use, the chances that the Vuelta has another 42 years old winner is very unlikely. One has a really big standard deviation, the other a smaller, but still extreme standard deviation.

thanks! i appreciate that you took time to explain that so well

Mark L

 

[ScienceIsCool]

Not quite correct. The numbers say that a 41-42 year old winning the Vuelta (first time or not) is roughly a 1 in a million event. The fact that this happened after ~100 years does not change the fact that this should only happen roughly once per million years.

Put another way, if you buy a hundred lottery tickets I would be very, very surprised if one of them is a winner.

John Swanson

 

[DirtyWorks]

Not quite correct. The numbers say that a 41-42 year old winning the Vuelta (first time or not) is roughly a 1 in a million event. The fact that this happened after ~100 years does not change the fact that this should only happen roughly once per million years.

Put another way, if you buy a hundred lottery tickets I would be very, very surprised if one of them is a winner.

John Swanson

Agree! Leaving out this part of the probability description was intentional, and lost, in translating it into English.

 

[del1962]

The problem with thaking the age times and applying it over the ages of Vuelta winners is, you can't really compare a vuelta in the 40s and 50s, with a Vuelta now, firstly there was a much less international element, secondly Franco used the Vuelta for his own political purposes, thirdly for much of its time it was only a two week race and finally the parcours where such that you didn't have to be a climber. None of this means Horner did or didn't dope, but it does mean we cannot go of the statisitcs given to come to conclusions. You could get a better set of statistics if you compared age of first time winners from all Grand Tours over, no scrap that, the 90s early 2000s screws the data up.

 

[Granville57]

Not training/racing is the new training/racing. Imagine how fast he'd be if he took 12 months off from racing. WoW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Indeed.

I'm sure the following has been offered before, but maybe I was absent that day.

We've heard about Horner's downtime prior to the Vuelta as being advantageous to him due to the extra rest and recovery it afforded him (or something like that).

Considering that most teams, and their sponsors, would love nothing more than to win a Grand Tour, why would extended rest periods then not be the norm for a GC contender (I'm referring to Horner-like rest periods)? With everything that is at stake for a team, given the volatile nature of sponsorship in general, am I to believe that other teams forgo the "easy way out" and instead opt for sending their top riders to a variety of different races in the hope that other teams will follow the same program, thereby ensuring that all riders are more or less equally fatigued when it counts most?

If extra rest and downtime paves such an easy path to Grand Tour glory, I would expect to see a stable of unknown riders filling the ranks until Day One of any given three week adventure. Something tells me that's not going to happen though. But this supposedly worked for Chris Horner—at age 102.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

The problem with thaking the age times and applying it over the ages of Vuelta winners is, you can't really compare a vuelta in the 40s and 50s, with a Vuelta now, firstly there was a much less international element, secondly Franco used the Vuelta for his own political purposes, thirdly for much of its time it was only a two week race and finally the parcours where such that you didn't have to be a climber. None of this means Horner did or didn't dope, but it does mean we cannot go of the statisitcs given to come to conclusions. You could get a better set of statistics if you compared age of first time winners from all Grand Tours over, no scrap that, the 90s early 2000s screws the data up.

Still you can do it (even including the EPO/blood era). The results would be the same. In numerous threads in the clinic the age of first time TdF winners came into discussions (long before CH; in the time when LA was the top story b/c of his relative high age when he won the first time)...
You can even add the Giro. Never happened that a rider above 32 or 33 (AFIR) won a first GT.
I guess you can even add all ever ridden categorie one tours to make the sample size large enough to have a sound statistical study. CHs Vuelta 2013 will stand out as an extreme outlier...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Indeed.

I'm sure the following has been offered before, but maybe I was absent that day.

We've heard about Horner's downtime prior to the Vuelta as being advantageous to him due to the extra rest and recovery it afforded him (or something like that).

Considering that most teams, and their sponsors, would love nothing more than to win a Grand Tour, why would extended rest periods then not be the norm for a GC contender (I'm referring to Horner-like rest periods)? With everything that is at stake for a team, given the volatile nature of sponsorship in general, am I to believe that other teams forgo the "easy way out" and instead opt for sending their top riders to a variety of different races in the hope that other teams will follow the same program, thereby ensuring that all riders are more or less equally fatigued when it counts most?

If extra rest and downtime paves such an easy path to Grand Tour glory, I would expect to see a stable of unknown riders filling the ranks until Day One of any given three week adventure. Something tells me that's not going to happen though. But this supposedly worked for Chris Horner—at age 102.

Wonderful.

 

[Le breton]

john i'm puzzled..............if after 100 years of the vuelta we have 1 winner
aged 42 then statistically we might expect another similarly aged winner in the forthcoming 100 years

or am i oversimplifying things?............big numbers scare me

Mark L

You remind me of the famous Belgian "thinker" J-C Vandamme who is purported to have said that " when you fly an airplane there are 2 possible outcomes : crash or no crash; therefore when you fly an airplane you have a 50% chance to have an accident"

Or maybe it was GW Bush, another famous thinker, who said that.

 

[DirtyWorks]

The problem with thaking the age times and applying it over the ages of Vuelta winners is, you can't really compare a vuelta in the 40s and 50s, with a Vuelta now

Ok, but a big pool of cyclists tried and failed both to get entry into the event, then a smaller pool to podium no matter the year or regional flavor of the event.

What year did the 3-week Vuelta start?

 

[del1962]

Ok, but a big pool of cyclists tried and failed both to get entry into the event, then a smaller pool to podium no matter the year or regional flavor of the event.

What year did the 3-week Vuelta start?

Difficult to say, it went from 15 days up to 19 then 21 over 60s and 70s, though the number of stages jumped about a bit.

 

[IzzyStradlin]

I think age is red herring in Horner's case. If you can keep training at that level, no reason you can't win races. Most just lose motivation after years of racing.

And Horner's had an odd career. Is there a season in the past 10 years where he's even raced 40 days? Typically a guy with GT potential will have his balls raced off by the time he's 35.

Do I believe a 40+ year old could win a grand tour if racing was clean? Sure. Possible. Not likely, but physiologically possible.

Do I believe Chris Horner could win a GT clean? No, of course not. But not because of his age.

 

[ScienceIsCool]

And yet, during all these changes the age of a Vuelta winner remained constant. Changes in course, road conditions, length, equipment and training methods has had zero (i.e., zilch) impact on when a person reaches peak performance (age 27). To paraphrase: "I'm sorry you believe in miracles".

John Swanson

 

[IzzyStradlin]

But Horner's had an odd career. Is there a season in the past 10 years where he's even raced 40 days?

And to answer my own question: 2006-07 were pretty full seasons, otherwise no.
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider.asp?riderid=196

 

[Benotti69]

I think age is red herring in Horner's case. If you can keep training at that level, no reason you can't win races. Most just lose motivation after years of racing.

And Horner's had an odd career. Is there a season in the past 10 years where he's even raced 40 days? Typically a guy with GT potential will have his balls raced off by the time he's 35.

Do I believe a 40+ year old could win a grand tour if racing was clean? Sure. Possible. Not likely, but physiologically possible.

Do I believe Chris Horner could win a GT clean? No, of course not. But not because of his age.

So because Horner didn't race for years his body was able to pause the effects of time? Wow, how come more teams dont sign 40+ year olds who have hardly raced.

Or maybe he doped loads.........

 

[ebandit]

errr..............no

You remind me of the famous Belgian "thinker" J-C Vandamme who is purported to have said that " when you fly an airplane there are 2 possible outcomes : crash or no crash; therefore when you fly an airplane you have a 50% chance to have an accident"

Or maybe it was GW Bush, another famous thinker, who said that.

no if you watched two planes take off watch one crash and one land safely
one could say probability of crashing is 50%

ignoring other data showing that flying is safer

there is no 'other' data when stating a 42yr old wins the vuelta every 100yrs

Mark L

 

[the sceptic]

no if you watched two planes take off watch one crash and one land safely
one could say probability of crashing is 50%

ignoring other data showing that flying is safer

there is no 'other' data when stating a 42yr old wins the vuelta every 100yrs

Mark L

If one plane is Horner and the other is Froome, who will crash and burn first?

By my calculations, another Froome will only happen in about 5 billion years, so you should enjoy him while you can.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

So because Horner didn't race for years his body was able to pause the effects of time? Wow, how come more teams dont sign 40+ year olds who have hardly raced.

Or maybe he doped loads.........

It´s like that. Fans always try to explain the impossible. No matter how far-fetched it is.
The learning curve between fans is zilch, even after the LA debacle. Hell, even seasoned persons like "Master50" try to explain the obvious away.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Ah knew there would be reference to Wiggins somewhere, no matter what the subject

Or Froome for that matter.... It´s just a question of time. Even if he don´t fit at all into this "old age topic".

If one plane is Horner and the other is Froome, who will crash and burn first?

By my calculations, another Froome will only happen in about 5 billion years, so you should enjoy him while you can.

There it is, finally. But other than the good researched and well explained posts by John Swanson, "The sceptic" Horner fanboy comes around with a post completely lacking any data to back his argument. This guy is beyond help... A clinic farce (even unseen in the LA fanboys heydays) that brings every good discussion down to the circus the clinic became lately.

 

[Master50]

It´s like that. Fans always try to explain the impossible. No matter how far-fetched it is.
The learning curve between fans is zilch, even after the LA debacle. Hell, even seasoned persons like "Master50" try to explain the obvious away.

Seasoned forumites like Master50 just don't like to pile on the load of speculation. It isn't that I don't think it is possible that anyone in particular is cheating only that this trial by forum is distasteful to me. I believe in due process and not lynch mobs.

Chris Horner is one of the riders I have watched all his career and he is unique in his enthusiasm and discipline. I really don't think he does anything but ride his bike. His career can also be explained from the perspective of a clean rider that kept trying to find a place he could show his talent without the boost so he never got a foothold in Europe until the general level of boost dropped to levels more like normal performance levels. In 25 years of working in the sport I see a real change in the riders and the peloton itself. Fewer miracle riders. I know you don't look at his career from that perspective and I have been around long enough to know I may be wrong about him too. I will wait for the smoking gun.

 

[the sceptic]

It´s like that. Fans always try to explain the impossible. No matter how far-fetched it is.
The learning curve between fans is zilch, even after the LA debacle. Hell, even seasoned persons like "Master50" try to explain the obvious away.

lol. says the guy that was trying to argue Froome was clean

 

[The Hitch]

Seasoned forumites like Master50 just don't like to pile on the load of speculation. It isn't that I don't think it is possible that anyone in particular is cheating only that this trial by forum is distasteful to me. I believe in due process and not lynch mobs.
.

Trial?

Where is Horner being tried?

He's being called a doper because he clearly is a doper. no one however is saying absolutely anything about having his results stripped or getting banned.

The insanely difficult to meet (in cycling for the most part impossible as Lance and Indurain and Menchov have showed) standards of proof that you are using are the standards that are used in court which exit purely to ensure that no innocent person ever gets found guilty even if the chances of them being innocent are next to 0.

Don't pretend using those standards on an internet "did he didn't he" discussion is honorable. It is not.

 

[IzzyStradlin]

So because Horner didn't race for years his body was able to pause the effects of time? Wow, how come more teams dont sign 40+ year olds who have hardly raced.

Or maybe he doped loads.........

Of course he doped loads. And if he were 10 years younger, I'd still say he "doped loads".

Just saying he doesn't have the wear and tear (physical and mental) that one would normally associate with a 40 year old pro cyclist. He hasn't been traveling the world and racing his bike for 9 months of the year for the past decade, he basically takes a couple month long trips to Europe to do a few bike races each year.