Which TdF's could Roglič have won?

[Lurkerman]

Ultimately it's not your own choice or fault who you're competing against, so let us instead focus on Primož Roglič and his team striving to be the best version of themselves. Try and imagine a world where he and they perhaps have a bit more luck and also make a few different decision than what they did IRL. Which editions of the Tour de France, then, does Roglič win? I have added a poll.

 

[Red Rick]

I'll say 2019 as the obvious example because it doesn't require being somehow better than what he showed at other times that year.

All it would have required is to show up in Vuelta form and he'd have cleaned it. The Tour was the weakest GT in 2019.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

2019, 2020

 

[CyclistAbi]

I voted for all of them.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Beware I'm a die-hard fanboy, so really should've just plastered the whole room of empty calendars and tatooed with a capital Rogla.

OK, so quite soberly (ok so at least in my own dream could-have-been world), if he'd avoided all his crashes at critical time slots, I think the picture could have looked at least a bit different.

Regards,
LPdBF syndrome citizen

 

[Ilmaestro99]

He was very close to getting beaten by Landa in the giro 2019 and the final time trial saved his podium. But then people think he will win the tour 2019? Come on man

 

[YavorD]

He was very close to getting beaten by Landa in the giro 2019 and the final time trial saved his podium. But then people think he will win the tour 2019? Come on man

The only logical explanation is that people think Landa, Carapaz and Nibali >>>>> Bernal, Kruijswijk and Thomas.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

The only logical explanation is that people think Landa, Carapaz and Nibali >>>>> Bernal, Kruijswijk and Thomas.

Mate delete this! Youre makeing my argument seem weak!!

 

[gavia88]

2019 just by showing up
2020 without the Dauphine crash and/or more agressive tacticts by Jumbo

2018 was too early to see a prime Roglic so, no. And 2021 he crashed out, but I think Pogacar was too good already at that point, so even without crash I think no.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Why did some people vote in 2020 TdF? He was there and lost it.
I voted for 2019, he was obviously better than Bernal.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

1. 2019 he would have won if he’d ridden it. He was great in the Giro until he got sick. No one was good in that Tour. Pinot was leading until his weird quad issue. Bernal was OK but not at Roglic level.
2. 2020 he would have won if not for crashing in the Dauphine (everyone conveniently forgets that he crashed out of the Dauphine right before that already strange 2020 Tour) and if he and the team had ridden more aggressively.
3. 2021 he would have won as the returning Tour winner with the full backing of the team and his super domestique Vingegaard. This of course assumes he doesn’t crash.

I could make an argument in 2022, too, as they weren’t that stratospheric performance wise, but that’s getting a bit too far down the if then tree. I don’t see how he would have won the 2023 given what we saw from Jonas in the mountains but even more so in that ITT. 2024 and 2025 obviously no chance.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He was very close to getting beaten by Landa in the giro 2019 and the final time trial saved his podium. But then people think he will win the tour 2019? Come on man

Didn't he get sick halfway that Giro or had the runs or something?

 

[HashRouge]

Why did some people vote in 2020 TdF? He was there and lost it.
I voted for 2019, he was obviously better than Bernal.

I think because Jumbo/ Roglic were complacent about the threat posed by Pogacar and didn't maximise chances to take time out of him when/ where they could. Pogacar had pretty much no team, so he didn't have any support really if Jumbo had piled the pressure on. I don't think people are saying that it's certain Roglic would have won, just that he/ Jumbo didn't maximise their chances.