Ultimately it's not your own choice or fault who you're competing against, so let us instead focus on Primož Roglič and his team striving to be the best version of themselves. Try and imagine a world where he and they perhaps have a bit more luck and also make a few different decision than what they did IRL. Which editions of the Tour de France, then, does Roglič win? I have added a poll.
Which TdF's could Roglič have won?
- Thread starter Lurkerman
- Start date
- Feb 20, 2012
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I'll say 2019 as the obvious example because it doesn't require being somehow better than what he showed at other times that year.
All it would have required is to show up in Vuelta form and he'd have cleaned it. The Tour was the weakest GT in 2019.
All it would have required is to show up in Vuelta form and he'd have cleaned it. The Tour was the weakest GT in 2019.
- Jun 7, 2011
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- May 29, 2019
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- Oct 5, 2009
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Beware I'm a die-hard fanboy, so really should've just plastered the whole room of empty calendars and tatooed with a capital Rogla.
OK, so quite soberly (ok so at least in my own dream could-have-been world), if he'd avoided all his crashes at critical time slots, I think the picture could have looked at least a bit different.
Regards,
LPdBF syndrome citizen
OK, so quite soberly (ok so at least in my own dream could-have-been world), if he'd avoided all his crashes at critical time slots, I think the picture could have looked at least a bit different.
Regards,
LPdBF syndrome citizen
- Apr 13, 2021
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He was very close to getting beaten by Landa in the giro 2019 and the final time trial saved his podium. But then people think he will win the tour 2019? Come on man
- Jul 8, 2017
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The only logical explanation is that people think Landa, Carapaz and Nibali >>>>> Bernal, Kruijswijk and Thomas.
- Apr 13, 2021
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- Mar 20, 2022
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Why did some people vote in 2020 TdF? He was there and lost it.
I voted for 2019, he was obviously better than Bernal.
I voted for 2019, he was obviously better than Bernal.
- Jun 1, 2015
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- 2019 he would have won if he’d ridden it. He was great in the Giro until he got sick. No one was good in that Tour. Pinot was leading until his weird quad issue. Bernal was OK but not at Roglic level.
- 2020 he would have won if not for crashing in the Dauphine (everyone conveniently forgets that he crashed out of the Dauphine right before that already strange 2020 Tour) and if he and the team had ridden more aggressively.
- 2021 he would have won as the returning Tour winner with the full backing of the team and his super domestique Vingegaard. This of course assumes he doesn’t crash.
- Jun 7, 2011
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I think because Jumbo/ Roglic were complacent about the threat posed by Pogacar and didn't maximise chances to take time out of him when/ where they could. Pogacar had pretty much no team, so he didn't have any support really if Jumbo had piled the pressure on. I don't think people are saying that it's certain Roglic would have won, just that he/ Jumbo didn't maximise their chances.
- Apr 3, 2009
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- Aug 3, 2015
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No guarantees, but 2019 is the obvious answer if you have to pick one. With a full route and no shortenings/cancellations, I think Bernal wins the race in the Alps though. Never convinced by Roglic's high mountain climbing which favored Bernal late in a GT.
- Mar 20, 2022
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- Jun 7, 2011
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Bernal had been suffering with back pain all year and got dropped by Van Aert leading a peloton of 40 riders. His level in 2020 was not representative of his level in 2019.
Because the topic is about what could have been. Roglic crashed in the Dauphiné 2020 so he might not have been at his very best, and he also could have made some other decisions during the race, like not handing Pogi free time, can't remember the stage where he just let him go.
- Apr 30, 2011
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- Jun 1, 2015
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Tour de France 2020 Stage 17 results
Tour de France 2020 Stage 17 from Grenoble to Méribel - Col de la Loze was won by Miguel Ãngel López before Primož RogliÄ and Tadej PogaÄar. Primož RogliÄ was leading the general classification.
www.procyclingstats.com
- May 27, 2022
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Had he had actually raced aggressively in the mountains, he would've won, he had Pogacar on the ropes, particularly on the Col de la Loze, but waited until the last km to attack. Jumbo raced like prime Team Sky except they didn't have that one stage where they go thermonuclear and put the each to bed, for example LPSM 2015, Ax 3 2013.
The only one I'd emphatically say yes to is 2019. I think it's a real stretch to say 2020 when he lost the TT by nearly 2 minutes; the race doesn't unfold in a vacuum and we don't know how differently Pog might have raced if the racing had played out differently. As far as Roglic not racing aggressively enough, I'm a pretty big believer in the idea that if someone had the legs, they would have gone. Not convinced Roglic had it; not saying it was impossible, just saying I think it's a stretch.
- Feb 20, 2012
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Bernal gained a full 1'30 + bonus seconds on a weak field in the Alps, before going back to not being the best again on Val Thorens. He was 10th of the GC guys on PdbF, he was 5th of the GC guys on the Tourmalet, and 4th on Prat d'Albis, losing time every time.
He also lost 1'36 to Alaphilippe in the ITT, and Alaphilippe wasn't exactly seen as a greater ITTer than Roglic. Then we can add the TTT that Jumbo crushed, and a pathway for Bernal to win the Tour doesn't just require Roglic to be not that good, it requires Roglic to suddenly get dropped by 10-15 guys in the Alps, which would basically be worse than he was in the 3rd week of the Giro.
- Apr 30, 2011
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They mistakenly thought they didn't need a bigger buffer after Loze, so they just defended the next day despite having the team to send riders up the road to allow an attack to stick on Glières.
- Jul 10, 2012
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The question was which one could he have won, not which one did he win. It's plausible to say JV rode too conservatively because they thought Rog would dominate the TT. If they'd been riding like he needed a big buffer going into the TT, who knows what would have happened?
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