Who has/hasn't reached their peak?

[Parrulo]

Leiphiemer no, he had his best season this year. He's just focusing on week stages and USA rather than GTs. May have past it when talking only about GTs.

Might I throw in some riders who I'm honestly not sure if they've peaked:
-Machado
-Brajkovic
-Horner
-Voeckler
-Scarponi
-Farrar
-Haussler
-Roche
-Flecha
-Lokfvist
-Hoogerland
-Arroyo
-Bakelandts
-Quickstep's very own random GC guy, Mr. DeWeert

Trying to figure out if those guys have reached the peak of their careers already or not - that's interest!

machado is far from having peaked. he is 26 but only rode his first GTs this season( a late starter like evans i would say tho less talented ofc)

he also needs to learn how to properly peak for a race, all his career till this year was based on racing all season long on pretty much always his base form(check his results last year and you will see how he is always there on the top 10 on 1 week races but never seems to be good enough to win)

this year he managed to do it for the giro but had a bunch of falls on the first week and got sick(the hog wanted him to drop from the race due to illness but he refused and popovych heavily criticised him for being way to nervous riding in the pack) he lost 3 minutes on the strade bianch stage even tho he had 2 flat tires and 1 fall on that chaotic stage where you had to wait minutes before you got a wheel.

he then lost tons of times on the first mountain stages and slowly crawled his way back into the end of the top 20 in the last few days(top 10'd the itt just a bit behind contador)

on the vuelta tho, he completely missed the peak according to himself and said he never felt as if his legs were properly working during the entire race, still put a decent itt tho.

anyway i see potential in him but he needs to learn a lot of basic stuff(riding in a pack and how to peak mostly) and improve his climbing ofc his time trialling is already very good so he is fine on that part

Tour of Italy 2011: Stage 21: Milano-Milano (26 km):
1 David Millar (GBr) Team Garmin-Cervélo 00:30:13
2 Alex Rasmussen (Den) Team HTC-Highroad 0:00:07
3 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Team Saxo Bank-SunGard 0:00:36
4 Richie Porte (Aus) Team Saxo Bank-SunGard 0:00:43
5 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Team RadioShack 0:00:55
6 Jos Van Emden (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:01:02
7 Cameron Meyer (Aus) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:01:04
8 Patrick Gretsch (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:01:08
9 Tiago Machado (Por) Team RadioShack 0:01:12
10 Kanstantsin Sivtsov (Blr) HTC-Highroad 0:01:16
11 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:01:18
12 Matteo Montaguti (Ita) AG2R La Mondiale 0:01:19
13 Vasili Kiryienka (Blr) Movistar Team 0:01:22
14 Kristof Vandewalle (Bel) Quickstep Cycling Team 0:01:24
15 Sebastian Lang (Ger) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:01:26
16 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Pro Team Astana
17 Michele Scarponi (Ita) Lampre - ISD 0:01:28
18 Rick Flens (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team
19 Ignatas Konovalovas (Ltu) Movistar Team 0:01:30
20 Steven Kruijswijk (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:01:31

this result also shows he has what it takes to handle 3 weeks as he was giving everything he had in the mountains to improve his GC place and this was right after the finestre stage on the last day.

vuelta itt(47km's)

1 Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:55:54
2 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:00:59
3 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:01:22
4 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Leopard Trek 0:01:27
5 Taylor Phinney (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:01:33
6 Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Leopard Trek 0:01:37
7 Tiago Machado (Por) Team RadioShack 0:01:54
8 Janez Brajkovic (Slo) Team RadioShack 0:01:56
9 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:02:02
10 Maxime Monfort (Bel) Leopard Trek 0:02:06
11 Fredrik Kessiakoff (Swe) Pro Team Astana 0:02:18
12 Nelson Oliveira (Spa) Team RadioShack 0:02:19
13 Denis Menchov (Rus) Geox-TMC
14 Stuart O'Grady (Aus) Leopard Trek 0:02:20
15 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:02:24
16 Andrew Talansky (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:02:28
17 Markel Irizar Aranburu (Spa) Team RadioShack 0:02:51
18 Dimitri Champion (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:52
19 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Katusha Team 0:02:53
20 Steven Kruijswijk (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:02:57

anyway next year will prolly be decisive for him to show if he really has what it takes to step up to the task

sorry for the long text

 

[gustienordic]

I think when talking about people who have passed their peak it is still important to realize how fast or slow they will drop; for example, Scarponi, Basso & Cunego may not be what they once were, but all are still incredibly strong, and have quite a few more seasons racing with the best. Its hard to say someone who finished the year in the top 10 or even top 20 in the world tour is way past their peak. Thats coming close to insulting riders who are in great form. Scarponi, arguably past his peak, is better than 90% or riders who are in the "best form of their life." Fitness is somewhat dependent on age, but in endurance athletes, it is quite a bit different. Some guys can still be riding with the best in the world until they are 40. Take Jens Voigt, Chris Horner, Hincapie for example. I don't care if you hate them, you have to admit it is still impressive they are keeping up with "kids" that are 25-30. Or if you want other examples, Giorgio Di Centa, an Italian nordic skier, is consistently one of the top 20 skiers in the world at 39. Lukas Bauer, finished the year 3rd in distance points on the World Cup circuit, and he is turning 35 soon.

I still don't understand the Scarponi peaking nonsense; he was 4th in the Giro last year, 2nd this year; that is not someone past their peak. He has only improved since getting back from his suspension. He was 4th in the world with hardly racing after June.

Now if you want someone who truly is past their peak, look at Di Luca... his last win was when? 2007, with LBL.

If you can argue that Scarponi has peaked and is past his peak, then try and argue Evans is in the same place; he's older than Scarponi. Or Samu, he's already 33, and we all know his last real win was in the Olympics in 2008 (I'm kidding, Samu is great).

I just think this forum has dropped from being about riders who have ACTUALLY peaked and are going downhill fast to hating on riders who are starting to get a little bit older that we don't like and want to see racing poorly.

(Sidenote, whoever said Voeckler has peaked is crazy; 2011 was by far his best season, and will probably impress in 2012. Just because he doesn't get as many wins, doesn't mean he has gone downhill! Gilbert will obviously not get as many wins next year, but that doesn't mean he has peaked, or is having a bad year. Racing has a whole lot of luck thrown in and you need to be in the right place at the right time)

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

most of the best dutch riders I don't think have hit peak yet

Menchov and the older gaurd gotta be coming close.

 

[ramjambunath]

Is Dowsett doing tracks next year? If not he is up for a big season.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I have clearly not hit my peak as being an annoying fanboy.

I don't mean any disrespect to Alberto but do you think he could top his dominant performances at the 2009 Tour of the 2011 Giro? I am not saying he is on the decline but it seems hard to imagine him being even more dominant.

 

[hfer07]

the problem here is not about a rider having reached his peak-its about consistency: for Example Evans has had two great years, with a lot of wins in his palmares-even if he failed big time in the 2010 Tour. We also have "the misterious cases of Levi Leipheimer & Chris Horner" -both with astounding-yet shady nonetheless-performances bordering the 40's and yet=when the tour comes around they cannot reach top spots. Basso has been successful after his return with his Giro win & his 8th spot in this year's tour. some folks said Nibali is in a down spiral decline-but look around and name any young rider apart form Contador who has finished 2 GT with overall win, podium & top 10-so that argument is just ridiculous.......

the riders that I'm certain about having reached their peak "and currently declining" are Tom Bonnen,Filippo Pozzato, Michael Rogers, Serge Pauwels, Alessandro Ballan, Andreas Kloden & Popovich

 

[bicing]

its more interesting if people have the balls to make a big call and nominate younger riders they believe will decline into obscurity rather than just picking the oldies. its too easy that way.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

you really are full of it. Someone is past their peak after their best season of their career.

One doesn't rule out the other. As long as you're talking about someone's physical peak, that is. You have to factor in the average "level" of his direct competitors, the competition he faced in those races, among other things.

I have clearly not hit my peak as being an annoying fanboy.

I don't mean any disrespect to Alberto but do you think he could top his dominant performances at the 2009 Tour of the 2011 Giro? I am not saying he is on the decline but it seems hard to imagine him being even more dominant.

He may well be on the decline. Hard to beat his 2009 TDF. Though I guess we'll never know for sure if he's banned for the next 2 years.

 

[Midnightfright]

I have clearly not hit my peak as being an annoying fanboy.

I don't mean any disrespect to Alberto but do you think he could top his dominant performances at the 2009 Tour of the 2011 Giro? I am not saying he is on the decline but it seems hard to imagine him being even more dominant.

We have years of top top performances to look forward to. Rumour has it nxt season ia going to be your Gilbert Year.

 

[Midnightfright]

its more interesting if people have the balls to make a big call and nominate younger riders they believe will decline into obscurity rather than just picking the oldies. its too easy that way.

Hmmm ok that's a difficult one that begs for arguments but I will name 3 if u do Guardini, Pierre Rolland and altough not all they young I'm expecting VDB to fade.

 

[c&cfan]

I have clearly not hit my peak as being an annoying fanboy.

I don't mean any disrespect to Alberto but do you think he could top his dominant performances at the 2009 Tour of the 2011 Giro? I am not saying he is on the decline but it seems hard to imagine him being even more dominant.

i'm sorry???? if he is banned, yes. if not, what are you talking about? he's still 28 and he was never stronger than this year. that's "pure" stupidity. again, irrational/stupid/embarrassing fanboyism.

 

[Angliru]

I have clearly not hit my peak as being an annoying fanboy.

I don't mean any disrespect to Alberto but do you think he could top his dominant performances at the 2009 Tour of the 2011 Giro? I am not saying he is on the decline but it seems hard to imagine him being even more dominant.

That (in bold) is a scarey prospect!

If you consider Contador's age and also compare that to other grand tour winners (Menchov, Sastre, Evans) who reached their ultimate successes in their thirties, I believe it is quite possible for Contador to continue to improve physically and tactically. If Bruyneel can get the Schleck's dialed in on their TT bikes and improve their performances in that discipline then Contador would be presented with quite an obstacle with the union of Shack + Leopard and their collection of stage racing specialists. Evans will be a year older but a year wiser and that much more confident in his own abilities and those of his team. Contador will still be dealing with a team that is a bit short on depth but that won't have a Giro in their legs come Tour time.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Given their palmares over recent years and some of their performances, you'd have to say that it's very likely we've seen the best of Cancellara, Contador, Gilbert and Cavendish. Of course, they'll still probably be the best at what they do, but how's Phil going to repeat his Ardennes 2011 effort, Bertie going to match this year's Giro, Fabian going to improve his 2010 cobbled monument rides or Cavendish going to speed up his rate of hoovering up GT stage wins?

 

[El Pistolero]

Given their palmares over recent years and some of their performances, you'd have to say that it's very likely we've since the best of Cancellara, Contador, Gilbert and Cavendish. Of course, they'll still probably be the best at what they do, but how's Phil going to repeat his Ardennes 2011 effort, Bertie going to match this year's Giro, Fabian going to improve his 2010 cobbled monument rides or Cavendish going to speed up his rate of hoovering up GT stage wins?

If Phil can win 2 Monuments, couple of Tour stages(+some days in the yellow) and the Worlds road race his season will already be better IMO. Even if that would be his only wins in the season.

I have a hunch he'll win the Ronde van Vlaanderen next year. He'll be a cycling legend then. The first one since Michele Bartoli to win a cobbled Monument and a hilly Monument.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Given their palmares over recent years and some of their performances, you'd have to say that it's very likely we've seen the best of Cancellara, Contador, Gilbert and Cavendish. Of course, they'll still probably be the best at what they do, but how's Phil going to repeat his Ardennes 2011 effort, Bertie going to match this year's Giro, Fabian going to improve his 2010 cobbled monument rides or Cavendish going to speed up his rate of hoovering up GT stage wins?

Maybe in absolute terms, but they will still be the best in their class; their challengers are aging as much as they are, and there isn't any young talent ready to usurp their respective thrones, except Tony Martain in the TT.

I agree with Pistelero. Similar with Contador, pretty much all he has to do is win the TDF again to equal his peak, and if he doubles the Vuelta, it would be icing on the cake. With the rule change and 2012 route, Cav will likely be able repeat green. It would only be a descent from this year's "peak" if he doesn't win the Olympics, which is a high standard for anyone (it is setting up for him as the favorite, to boot)

 

[Midnightfright]

If Phil can win 2 Monuments, couple of Tour stages(+some days in the yellow) and the Worlds road race his season will already be better IMO. Even if that would be his only wins in the season.

I have a hunch he'll win the Ronde van Vlaanderen next year. He'll be a cycling legend then. The first one since Michele Bartoli to win a cobbled Monument and a hilly Monument.

Altough he is the mose likely person to acheive it at the moment except for fluke breakaways o don't think he will. He will be a marked man and will have to work very hard to stay with the front group and even if he does the chances of no one else in the elite group outsprinting him is slim.

Saying that I cant see any of the younger riders coming up who has shown the potential to win a cobbled and hilly classic maybe Geraint thomas at strech he certainly looks to have great potential in cobbled races but would need to improve some climbing for the hilly races. who else though? The only other 2 guys who I can think of having the potential would Sagan and EBH.

 

[El Pistolero]

Altough he is the mose likely person to acheive it at the moment except for fluke breakaways o don't think he will. He will be a marked man and will have to work very hard to stay with the front group and even if he does the chances of no one else in the elite group outsprinting him is slim.

Saying that I cant see any of the younger riders coming up who has shown the potential to win a cobbled and hilly classic maybe Geraint thomas at strech he certainly looks to have great potential in cobbled races but would need to improve some climbing for the hilly races. who else though? The only other 2 guys who I can think of having the potential would Sagan and EBH.

His team includes Ballan(who was the only one to get close this year when Gilbert attacked on the Bosberg), Thor Hushovd, Greg van Avermaet, George Hincapie, Marcus Burghardt and Taylor Phinney(for experience).

 

[Midnightfright]

His team includes Ballan(who was the only one to get close this year when Gilbert attacked on the Bosberg), Thor Hushovd, Greg van Avermaet, George Hincapie, Marcus Burghardt and Taylor Phinney(for experience).

Well in really not confident he will be in a place to win a Sprint from a select group. He obviously has a team that coupe work well for him but I wouldnt be surprised to see something similar to Thor with Garmin this year.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Well in really not confident he will be in a place to win a Sprint from a select group. He obviously has a team that coupe work well for him but I wouldnt be surprised to see something similar to Thor with Garmin this year.

I can't really see it. I mean, can see one of the other riders on BMC winning after covering a break for Gilbert, but I can't see Gilbert adopting a strategy of sitting on his strongest rivals wheel. That strategy played to Thor's strengths at Roubaix, even though he didn't win. It wouldn't play to Gilberts.

Mind you, while he has a shot, I wouldn't make him one of the top two favourites regardless of what strategy he employs.

 

[Midnightfright]

I can't really see it. I mean, can see one of the other riders on BMC winning after covering a break for Gilbert, but I can't see Gilbert adopting a strategy of sitting on his strongest rivals wheel. That strategy played to Thor's strengths at Roubaix, even though he didn't win. It wouldn't play to Gilberts.

Mind you, while he has a shot, I wouldn't make him one of the top two favourites regardless of what strategy he employs.

For me in RVV top ten but top 2 defo not.

 

[airstream]

Interesting how are you gonna measure if Contador will get to his peak in the future? He won everything that could, barring Fleche-Wallone, probably. It must happen something outstanding like TdF+Vuelta double, not less. I agree, he is able to be stronger than in the Giro, however it will be difficult to define when he peaked, as the Tour field won't even close let him win by such a huge advantage. For me personally, Contador has peaked in the Tour'09 so far. But peak of his superiority and spectacle was in the Giro. As for this matter something is unlikely to change.

 

[The Hitch]

the Tour field won't even close let him win by such a huge advantage.

Again with this.

I dont even see what it has to do with the rest of your post but you had to put it in there.

So you get a responce.

Contador won the Giro by 6.10

He won the 2009 Tour de France by 4.11

In the 2011 Giro he got 1.16 from Time bonuses, which dont exist in the Tour.

Take away the Time bonuses and that leaves 4.54

Which isnt that far from the 4.11 of 2009.

Obviously he wont win by exactly as much over Andy Schleck as he will over Michelle Scarponi, as Schleck is better, but I hope these numbers prove to you that Michelle Scarponi isnt as **** as you make him out to be.

And 4.11 is still plenty dominant enough.

So yes, Contador is capable of beating a TDF field with ease as well, regardless of how many times you try to drill into peoples heads that they wouldn't let him win so easily.

His team includes Ballan(who was the only one to get close this year when Gilbert attacked on the Bosberg), Thor Hushovd, Greg van Avermaet, George Hincapie, Marcus Burghardt and Taylor Phinney(for experience).

Well Gilberts would be main rival for - pace up the Bosberg, was kind of tired you know, what with the 30k tt he just did.

Gilbert can win RVV but it will require either a lot of misfortune on Cancellaras part, or Cancellara changing his schedule.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

lol ten characs

 

[Nick C.]

Gilbert can win RVV but it will require either a lot of misfortune on Cancellaras part, or Cancellara changing his schedule.

Isn't the Paterberg x3 gonna change things ie: Spartacus won't be there at the end or is it too short, too far from the finish, too likely to be just GW with the Kemmel redux.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Tony Martin.