Who is going to win the Giro after stage 16?

[AlexNYC]

As we've seen this week, Nibali's voodoo powers extend to gastrointestinal issues. Will he deploy them again in what remains of this Giro? I think this has to be factored into any prognostication.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

It is a tie between Quintana and TD. The resurrection of Nibali is great for the race but I have the gut feeling that he will drag Quintana into victory.

I have that feeling too. But I voted for Tom - gotta have faith

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

As we've seen this week, Nibali's voodoo powers extend to gastrointestinal issues. Will he deploy them again in what remains of this Giro? I think this has to be factored into any prognostication.

When you just think you have gotten a good grab of how Nibali works his magic, he will surprise you. We are talking earthquakes, snowstorms, broken bikes, bad tiramisu, unfortunate mechanics, wrong bottles etc etc.

I say Nibali.

 

[the delgados]

Barring an accident (not the kind you're thinking of), there is no question that Dumoulin is going to win.
He rides alongside the mountain goats with ease and has plenty of time to take care of other matters while doing so.
Of course he's going to win.
p.s. Dumoulin's experience reminds me of the chapter in Rough Ride when Kimmage described the sense and smells when LeMond shat all over himself during the Giro. Maybe not the right thread to comment about the LeMond incident, but I remember he was hours behind on the GC when the incident occurred, yet he kept on riding.
I guess I have several points here, but the most obvious that comes to mind is that Dumoulin must feel really confident of his abilities to pull over, disrobe and take a poo while his rivals disappeared in the distance.

 

[WheelofGear]

Dumoulin.

Why? Because the rest aren't going to take any risk and can't drop Dumoulin on the final climb.

Nairo's passivity in the Stelvio stage was very telling.

 

[AussieBob]

I think TD will end up winning this. He will just follow Nairo and Nibali, perhaps lose some time, perhaps even the Maglia Rosa, but the other two won't be far enough ahead on time for the TT. I also think Nibali can't afford to drag Nairo with him on an alliance. He needs to dig in time with Quintana as well.

 

[WheelofGear]

Nibali's main problem is his team. Pellizotti is the only rider who has been good, the rest have been horrible.

He needs riders in the break who can help him.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Nibali's main problem is his team. Pellizotti is the only rider who has been good, the rest have been horrible.

He needs riders in the break who can help him.

Exactly. For example if he wants to attack early today he would need someone who can shred the peloton and he would need one or two riders who were in the break and who could help him after he already has a gap. So you basically need at least 2 riders (and thats the absolute minimum) to make such an attack successfully, but Nibali only has one single rider who could do one of the jobs. Nibali is extremely dependent on Movistar or other teams who could try something early but if everyone rides conservatively he has to do the same.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Nibali's main problem is his team. Pellizotti is the only rider who has been good, the rest have been horrible.

He needs riders in the break who can help him.

Exactly. For example if he wants to attack early today he would need someone who can shred the peloton and he would need one or two riders who were in the break and who could help him after he already has a gap. So you basically need at least 2 riders (and thats the absolute minimum) to make such an attack successfully, but Nibali only has one single rider who could do one of the jobs. Nibali is extremely dependent on Movistar or other teams who could try something early but if everyone rides conservatively he has to do the same.

Time for Vino to remember who won him 3 GTs and a monument.

 

[Climbing]

Re: Re:

Nibali's main problem is his team. Pellizotti is the only rider who has been good, the rest have been horrible.

He needs riders in the break who can help him.

Exactly. For example if he wants to attack early today he would need someone who can shred the peloton and he would need one or two riders who were in the break and who could help him after he already has a gap. So you basically need at least 2 riders (and thats the absolute minimum) to make such an attack successfully, but Nibali only has one single rider who could do one of the jobs. Nibali is extremely dependent on Movistar or other teams who could try something early but if everyone rides conservatively he has to do the same.

And that is why he’s trying to talk Nairo into attacking early, which certainly has the team for a proper ambush. :lol:

 

[Red Rick]

I'm not even sure what the Dutch will do should Dumoulin not win, apart from referring to 'hope' as 'delusion' till the end of days.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

I'm not even sure what the Dutch will do should Dumoulin not win, apart from referring to 'hope' as 'delusion' till the end of days.

Lol we all know another trauma will come.