who is gonna win the white jersey in the tour de france

[theyoungest]

Anyone who can do top-20/25 in GC and is eligible has a shot at winning this for sure. I read today that Poels will be Vacansoleil's man for the GC while it depends whether Kruijswijk will get a shot since he might need to ride for the team. Also this will be the second TdF for Poels, while Kruijswijk will be there for the first time. Poels might be inconsistent but given the competition that doesn't matter so much. He's a very decent climber and almost won a stage in the last Vuelta , finishing top-20 in the GC there. He's been good at the TdL also, so don't expect Kruijswijk to be a clear favourite. Yes he might have a slight edge, but not so much as some people expect.

Yes, Poels has done the TDF before, but he's only done what, 5 stages? You say it doesn't matter that he's so inconsistent, but that's precisely what Kruijswijk is so good at: recovery. Maybe the most important feature of a TDF rider.

 

[K-0tic]

Yes, Poels has done the TDF before, but he's only done what, 5 stages? You say it doesn't matter that he's so inconsistent, but that's precisely what Kruijswijk is so good at: recovery. Maybe the most important feature of a TDF rider.

Perhaps. Poels completed over a week if I'm correct, which is still valuable experience. He was ill and had to drop out.

In the Vuelta, Kruijswijk seemed to have bad luck in the beginning but Poels lost like 2 minutes during stage 2 and 3 and his TT is bad (think he lost over a minute there to Kruijswijk). Uphill Poels managed to beat Kruijswijk in almost every stage (ofcourse after a while Kruijswijk gave up GC ambitions but still...) and seemed to only have one bad day (at the end of week 3?) so yeah I think Poels can pull of a decent result. I'm not gonna say he's the favourite but I think the difference between both riders will be closer than expected.

 

[Spine Concept]

Perhaps. Poels completed over a week if I'm correct, which is still valuable experience. He was ill and had to drop out.

In the Vuelta, Kruijswijk seemed to have bad luck in the beginning but Poels lost like 2 minutes during stage 2 and 3 and his TT is bad (think he lost over a minute there to Kruijswijk). Uphill Poels managed to beat Kruijswijk in almost every stage (ofcourse after a while Kruijswijk gave up GC ambitions but still...) and seemed to only have one bad day (at the end of week 3?) so yeah I think Poels can pull of a decent result. I'm not gonna say he's the favourite but I think the difference between both riders will be closer than expected.

That, essentially, made the difference. Kruijswijk really shouldn't have even raced the Vuelta but I think he quickly realized that he couldn't bring it for two GT's in a year, at least not yet. If Kruijswijk is anywhere near his Giro form of last year than Poels has no chance in my opinion. Unless he has a true break-out GT of some sort. I think it was the Hitch who said the even though Poels might be a lot like Jrod the latter did manage to do a great Giro this year whilst being consistent in the mountains which brings me back to the possibility remaining of Poels having a genuine break-out GT. However, even if he can consistently hang with Kruijswijk in the mountains he still needs to work on his TTing. It must be said though, that in last year's Giro Kruijswijk had a slow start and got better and better as the Giro progressed and if I'm not mistaken he even went in a break in a particular stage where he wasted unnecessary energy - in hindsight of course.

 

[gustienordic]

Taaramaes' win in the Estonian ITT hopefully means he is recovering.

Look out for his third week... he could put in a good performance. He has a solid TT, but if Coppel is eligible as the youngest claims, then I think he will win.

 

[theyoungest]

Perhaps. Poels completed over a week if I'm correct, which is still valuable experience. He was ill and had to drop out.

In the Vuelta, Kruijswijk seemed to have bad luck in the beginning but Poels lost like 2 minutes during stage 2 and 3 and his TT is bad (think he lost over a minute there to Kruijswijk). Uphill Poels managed to beat Kruijswijk in almost every stage (ofcourse after a while Kruijswijk gave up GC ambitions but still...) and seemed to only have one bad day (at the end of week 3?) so yeah I think Poels can pull of a decent result. I'm not gonna say he's the favourite but I think the difference between both riders will be closer than expected.

Kruijswijk had back problems in the Vuelta. And he wasn't the only one who found out that the Vuelta after such a hard Giro was a little too much. Certainly for a 2nd year pro.

Yes, they could be close, and on a good day Poels is a better climber than Kruijswijk. Just not all the time.

Look out for his third week... he could put in a good performance. He has a solid TT, but if Coppel is eligible as the youngest claims, then I think he will win.

I didn't claim Coppel is eligible, because he isn't. He's the same age as Gesink, Mollema, Dan Martin, Rolland. All of them are too old.

 

[K-0tic]

That, essentially, made the difference. Kruijswijk really shouldn't have even raced the Vuelta but I think he quickly realized that he couldn't bring it for two GT's in a year, at least not yet. If Kruijswijk is anywhere near his Giro form of last year than Poels has no chance in my opinion. Unless he has a true break-out GT of some sort. I think it was the Hitch who said the even though Poels might be a lot like Jrod the latter did manage to do a great Giro this year whilst being consistent in the mountains which brings me back to the possibility remaining of Poels having a genuine break-out GT. However, even if he can consistently hang with Kruijswijk in the mountains he still needs to work on his TTing. It must be said though, that in last year's Giro Kruijswijk had a slow start and got better and better as the Giro progressed and if I'm not mistaken he even went in a break in a particular stage where he wasted unnecessary energy - in hindsight of course.

In his first Giro you could see the same with Kruijswijk: At the end he pulled of his best results and improved, which is definitely in his favour. Poels has a terrible TT and in this TdF he therefore should be beaten.

Kruijswijk had back problems in the Vuelta. And he wasn't the only one who found out that the Vuelta after such a hard Giro was a little too much. Certainly for a 2nd year pro.

Yes, they could be close, and on a good day Poels is a better climber than Kruijswijk. Just not all the time.

I didn't claim Coppel is eligible, because he isn't. He's the same age as Gesink, Mollema, Dan Martin, Rolland. All of them are too old.

It also depends on what role Kruijswijk will have within the team. There's quite some freedom but depending on certain developments during the TdF he might be stick to team orders (which wouldn't be smart since the white jersey still is a jersey..). Poels has been good so far this year and if he does not have a bad day in the mountains he might get close. Just depends on how much time he loses in the TT. I understand the problems Kruijswijk as a second year pro had in the Vuelta but I still like Poels his showing there : getting close to a stage win twice and doing well after his bad start during the first 3 stages.

 

[badboyberty]

Is Quintana starting for Movistar? If so he's my outside pick.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

He is not. Would be more then an outside shot I think

In his first Giro you could see the same with Kruijswijk: At the end he pulled of his best results and improved, which is definitely in his favour. Poels has a terrible TT and in this TdF he therefore should be beaten.

It also depends on what role Kruijswijk will have within the team. There's quite some freedom but depending on certain developments during the TdF he might be stick to team orders (which wouldn't be smart since the white jersey still is a jersey..). Poels has been good so far this year and if he does not have a bad day in the mountains he might get close. Just depends on how much time he loses in the TT. I understand the problems Kruijswijk as a second year pro had in the Vuelta but I still like Poels his showing there : getting close to a stage win twice and doing well after his bad start during the first 3 stages.

Vacs over-rode poels last year anyway, so he wasn't exactly 'fresh'.

Still Poels is random so I dont feel confident betting on him.

 

[greenedge]

Anyone who can do top-20/25 in GC and is eligible has a shot at winning this for sure. I read today that Poels will be Vacansoleil's man for the GC while it depends whether Kruijswijk will get a shot since he might need to ride for the team. Also this will be the second TdF for Poels, while Kruijswijk will be there for the first time. Poels might be inconsistent but given the competition that doesn't matter so much. He's a very decent climber and almost won a stage in the last Vuelta , finishing top-20 in the GC there. He's been good at the TdL also, so don't expect Kruijswijk to be a clear favourite. Yes he might have a slight edge, but not so much as some people expect.

He was never going to win stage 5 at the Vuelta- if JROD did not ride Moreno would have won. On the Angrilu he was 48 seconds behind and the dudes he finished with were: Froome who had been working for Wiggins/ could not do the sprint and Menchov who did not even bother to attack as Cobo was up front.

Kruisjwijk at the Vuelta eventually worked for Mollema. Also at the Giro on Sestriere he was very strong. I would rank his 9th ( 8th ) place there higher than Poels' at the Vuelta in a field that was weaker.

I would say Kruisjwijk is the bigger potential GC star but Poels of course could match him. Poels will however win more Ardennes races ( surely at least 1 ) and i like him quite a bit.

 

[hrotha]

Winning the white jersey means being at least in the top 15 or thereabouts. If you ignore Andy, you get Nibali (7th) in 2009 and Gesink (5th/6th) in 2010 (no reason to ignore him in 2008). If you ignore Contador, you get Soler (11th) in 2007.

Who among the starting youngsters has the level to be there? Who do you see in the top 10-15? Kruijswijk is possible. Taaramae, at his best, would be even better, but as you guys say it's not likely that he'll be even close to his best. Anyone else would have to take a big step forward to win (which is not that unlikely - would Pinot being near the top 10 be an actual surprise, if he were to ride?)

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The thing is, if Kruijswijk and Van Garderen and Taaramae all fall away (like Gesink last year), you could end up with a guy that finishes 23th in GC and still wins the white jersey

 

[theyoungest]

Yes, last year Gesink was the overwhelming favourite, if he failed then probably Mollema, after him maybe Uran, then maybe Taaramae... and who won it?

 

[jens_attacks]

poels is my favourite for this one

 

[jscteam]

is pinot gonna ride or nd do you not? and do you think he can place at a 3 week event?

 

[K-0tic]

Team's roster of FDJ hasn't been announced yet but Pinot would surely want to ride the TdF. If I remember right though, FDJ want to use him in the Vuelta as a first GT experience. He's only 22 .....

 

[theyoungest]

Pinot is in, so that's another name for the list. Although it's his first GT, and he's not been very consistent up until now, he is maybe the most talented climber in the U25 category.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Pinot is in, so that's another name for the list. Although it's his first GT, and he's not been very consistent up until now, he is maybe the most talented climber in the U25 category.

Yeah. But he is not that strong in ITT's yet (decent though, no rodriguez) and I fear for his consistency.

 

[roundabout]

He will go on the attack on the climb to PdBF for sure.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

First significant climb of the race, guarenteed hot pace - going to have to be special for his attack to go anywhere, unless you mean attack out of the break.

 

[K-0tic]

Cool to see Pinot in. But he's only 22 so I don't expect him to take the white yersey. Hopefully we see something promising though.

 

[roundabout]

First significant climb of the race, guarenteed hot pace - going to have to be special for his attack to go anywhere, unless you mean attack out of the break.

It's very close to his birthplace. He will show himself even if just for 50 meters.

 

[maltiv]

Yeah. But he is not that strong in ITT's yet (decent though, no rodriguez) and I fear for his consistency.

He did very well in the Romandie TT though, but of course, that one was perhaps too hilly to be relevant in this context.

I'm looking forward to seeing him in TDF, definitely one of my favourite riders. I think he'll be climbing with the very best in the high mountains, yet I don't think he'll do a particularly good GC this time. It's unrealistic to expect anyone to be top 10 in their first GT at that age. Not even Contador managed to do that (Andy did, though).

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

He did very well in the Romandie TT though, but of course, that one was perhaps too hilly to be relevant in this context.

I'm looking forward to seeing him in TDF, definitely one of my favourite riders. I think he'll be climbing with the very best in the high mountains, yet I don't think he'll do a particularly good GC this time. It's unrealistic to expect anyone to be top 10 in their first GT at that age. Not even Contador managed to do that (Andy did, though).

That wasn't an ITT but an MTT. They basically rode up Crans Montana. Totally incomparable.

 

[thegrimpeur]

Of all the talented "future Hinaults" coming out in the recent years (Rolland, Coppel, Sicard), Pinot seem to be the maybe the best in the bunch. I really hope he can keep out of the usual first GT problems and compete for this yersey. He has perhaps the greatest top level of all the contenders, but obviously no one really knows how to expect.

 

[BoxCoppi]

Of all the talented "future Hinaults" coming out in the recent years (Rolland, Coppel, Sicard), Pinot seem to be the maybe the best in the bunch. I really hope he can keep out of the usual first GT problems and compete for this yersey. He has perhaps the greatest top level of all the contenders, but obviously no one really knows how to expect.

I agree. Pinot will indeed be very interesting to follow. As Dekker_Tifosi mentions, his consistency could be an issue though. Tour de l'Ain a case in point here. Stage win - lose 6 mins - stage win, on three adjacent stages. If that'll happen during the Tour any chances of white will be gone. Seeing him in top10 or maybe even top5 in a few of the mountain stages would fulfill my expectations