Who will be the next home winner of a Grand Tour?

[Koronin]

I looked at the maps and it's clear that Alaphilippe doesn't stand a chance. He's from central France, like, real central. And GT winners from big European countries in these times have to come from the outer parts of a country, close to the coast, like Thomas from Cardiff, Valverde from Murcia, Nibali from Sicily. So obviously Enric Mas will be the next Spanish winner. Benoît Cosnefroy will win the Tour de France. Or Alexys Brunel. But I'm leaning towards Cosnefroy.
For Italy you could say that Ciccone is a good bet then, but have you thought about Pozzovivo...?

Contador is from Madrid. Don't know if you are counting him or not.

My opinion is that Enric Mas is the most likely of the current riders to win his home Grand Tour. One of the big reasons for this is that Movistar specifically does target la Vuelta and always puts a strong team in that race as it is their home race. Yes it would take a few things working in his favor, but I think he has the best chance.

 

[tobydawq]

I think Pinot is the most likely, but he's running out of chances to line his planets up. A Vuelta for Landa or Mas doesn't seem impossible but probably relies on some more likely winners not being there. But if there's anything predictable about this sport it's that it's unpredictable....



Ullrich was supposed to win 5 Tours, Quintana was due a decade of dominance, even Bernal is being written off 18 months after the first of many Tours he was "supposed" to win - you never know what's around the corner.

Well, Ullrich fooled around which became evident quite soon (but I was too young to understand his potential when he broke through (4 years old)). I never really bought into Quintana as a future world dominator.

Pogacar and Evenepoel seem better still.

Bernal could hopefully give them a run for their money but the problems will arise in the ITT for him.

 

[Simurgh]

Pinot to do, what Contador and Froome couldn't. I believe #GiroTourDouble2021 lets gooooo

Jokes aside, I think no home winner the next four or five years. Most likely of the current crop would be Mas for the Vuelta, but I can't help but think of him as a Spanish Kruijswijk - good and with unmatched recovery, but not Tour-winning good. But it is difficult to tell, since anyone can suddenly pop up like Cobo, or a Tour 2014 scenario happens, where pre-race favorites crash out, which could pave the road for a 2nd tier rider to become a national celebrity.

 

[Bye Bye Bicycle]

Romain Bardet.

 

[Ranagazoo]

I honestly can't see any of the current group winning a GT, Mas is most likely but will only happen if he gets lucky or has a big improvement. I think more likely to be some random guy we've never heard of now - cyclists these days go from teenage amateurs to grand tour winners in like 2 years could easily happen to a French/Italian/Spanish guy.

 

[Ranagazoo]

I looked at the maps and it's clear that Alaphilippe doesn't stand a chance. He's from central France, like, real central. And GT winners from big European countries in these times have to come from the outer parts of a country, close to the coast, like Thomas from Cardiff, Valverde from Murcia, Nibali from Sicily. So obviously Enric Mas will be the next Spanish winner. Benoît Cosnefroy will win the Tour de France. Or Alexys Brunel. But I'm leaning towards Cosnefroy.
For Italy you could say that Ciccone is a good bet then, but have you thought about Pozzovivo...?

Interesting point, and come to think of it I've never heard of a successful Australian who comes from the centre of the country..

 

[RedheadDane]

Interesting point, and come to think of it I've never heard of a successful Australian who comes from the centre of the country..

I haven't heard of that many Australians who come from the centre of the country.
But unlike Australia, the centre of France is not a giant desert.

 

[BlueRoads]

Interesting point, and come to think of it I've never heard of a successful Australian who comes from the centre of the country..

True!

And now if you look at this it's also clear why I rate Buchmann rather highly. Not as good a bet as Denz, Bauhaus and Palzer, though...

Riders on the nation map for Germany

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[RedheadDane]

True!

And now if you look at this it's also clear why I rate Buchmann rather highly. Not as good a bet as Denz, Bauhaus and Palzer, though...

Riders on the nation map for Germany

www.procyclingstats.com

But wasn't it specifically close to the coast? That rules out Denz and Palzer.
Those guys born in the middle of the North Sea, though...

 

[BlueRoads]

Seriously, I don't see a Frenchman winning the Tour any time soon. As much as I've become a fan of Alaphilippe, I don't see him there, not with riders like Pogacar around. I agree that there is always a high rate of unpredictability in cycling, so who knows, Aurélien Paret-Peintre might end up winning it, or whoever.
Among the Italians I don't see anyone for the Giro, either. Somehow I like the idea of Ganna winning it, but on the other hand a time trialist at Ineos'... hm, would be exciting like melting ice-cream.
A Spanish rider will win the Vuelta in the next years, I'm sure. Might be Enric Mas with more time trialing. (Might be Raul Garcia.) Juan Ayuso. They got enough riders with potential, and since riders from other countries do not prioritize the Vuelta like they do, well, also it's the GT with the "worst" competition, so if someone targets it specifically and is good enough, he can win it without being a beast.

 

[BlueRoads]

But wasn't it specifically close to the coast? That rules out Denz and Palzer.
Those guys born in the middle of the North Sea, though...

Yeah, Lennard Kämna should do it, then... or what do you think of André Greipel's chances?

 

[tobydawq]

I agree that there is always a high rate of unpredictability in cycling, so who knows, Aurélien Paret-Peintre might end up winning it, or whoever.

Well, if it's decided in a head-wind sprint, sure.

 

[Escarabajo]

But why mention all those other countries?

Just filling up the sentences and making a point clearer!

 

[Anderis]

Davide Bagionelli in 2034.

 

[hayneplane]

If a lack of even semi viable contenders over a long stretch of years starts to tank domestic interest in the Giro, RCS absolutely would go full “Cancellara wins the Tour de Suisse” for Ganna. But it’s not clear that a lack of likely local winners actually would tank interest

I doubt that would work anyway as it would suit Evenepoel even more so Ganna would still be heavily up against it.

 

[RedheadDane]

The third option I see is Pavel Sivakov. I don't think it's totally out of the question that he will change his citizenship sometime down the road and he definitely has the talent to challenge for a win in the future.

You're saying that there isn't a possibility that the next French TdF winner will be an imported one?

Yeah, Lennard Kämna should do it, then...

Oh, come on! Kämna wasn't born that close to the sea!
(Also, the map appears to not be completely accurate. They've moved the birthplaces of Sieberg and Zwiehoff into the North Sea, for some reason...)

 

[Breh]

I think Pinot is the most likely, but he's running out of chances to line his planets up. A Vuelta for Landa or Mas doesn't seem impossible but probably relies on some more likely winners not being there. But if there's anything predictable about this sport it's that it's unpredictable....



Ullrich was supposed to win 5 Tours, Quintana was due a decade of dominance, even Bernal is being written off 18 months after the first of many Tours he was "supposed" to win - you never know what's around the corner.

Can't forget about Dumoulin in that regard. He was so hyped after that 2015 Vuelta, six years later and he has 1 Giro and an imminent retirement to show for it.

 

[janraaskalt]

Davide Bagionelli in 2034.

Did you typo Rebellin?

 

[Anderis]

Did you typo Rebellin?

No, I don't think Rebellin will be ready by 2034, yet.

 

[Red Rick]

Filippo Ganna

 

[MADRAZO]

Juan Ayuso will be the next home winner of a GT.

I agree, he could very well be able to win the Vuelta within perhaps 5 years and its unlikely someone else will succeed until then. Landa and Mas or Pinot, Alaphilippe or in some years Gaudu may have a small chance if they get perfect parcours and some luck, but it still seems unlikely so I think we have to wait for Ayusu and hope he lives up to his dominant juniortime. A final joker is Carlos Rodriguez that was also a brilliant junior and is a year ahead of Ayusu and with the usual Ineos magic a Vuelta win is not impossible in 3-4 years.

 

[Bonimenier]

Ineos will turn Ganna into a GC-rider and the organizers of the Giro will organize a Giro with more than 100km ITT.

 

[HelloDolly]

I think Ganna can win a GT ....He is even more talented than Tom Dumoulin .He is a great climber and he isnt even skinny yet

I am not sure who he is rides for now but Sivakov could win the Tour.He is French after all and spoke last year about changing to riding under French flag

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Well, Ullrich fooled around which became evident quite soon (but I was too young to understand his potential when he broke through (4 years old)). I never really bought into Quintana as a future world dominator.

Pogacar and Evenepoel seem better still.

Bernal could hopefully give them a run for their money but the problems will arise in the ITT for him.

Bernal’s back is a big issue as well.

 

[HelloDolly]

I wish people would stop lumping Bernal and Pogacar with Evenepoel

The hype for Evenepoel is over the top and embarrassing

We are talking about 2 Tour de France winners and as yet a youngster who rode away on some secondary or not at top from fields in lower races and is unproven as a GT contender not to mention winner .He hasnt been on a podium of a GT or finished a 3 week race in contention .Wining the Tour is more than legs

Give it a rest and respect the Tour champions who have earned their position

I wonder sometimes about people on here and bandwagon jumping
When the kid has proven himself in a a GT then ok but this is just bandwagon jumping hype at present