Who will be the next home winner of a Grand Tour?

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Indurain was one of the better climbers around, if not the best, while being 80 kilos, he didn't need to loose weight.
Anyway i agree that the equation "improving climbing = worsening TT ability" is ***.
Depending on the sources you check his weight during his Tour winning years is said to be between 8 and 10 kg less than when he became a pro. Apparently his appointments with his Italian doctor were for weight loss consultation.
 
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Thomas and Wiggins' ITT skills even improved at that point in their careers. Wiggins takes a legit step up from 'contender for short to mid ITTs' to 'dominates all long TTs he enters' which is often overlooked because the discovery of hitherto-unknown climbing ability got all the attention.
Yes, that gets ignored. I think Dumoulin also got slightly better, but Dumoulins weight loss between the 2015 Vuelta and 2017 Giro wasn't big. I think he lost some weight before the 2015 Vuelta though.

As for Wiggins, all the stage races he won on had super TT heavy routes IIRC. Like one steep finish in all those races and it was Mende where he got dropped by Lieuwe frigging Westra.
 
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Yes, that gets ignored. I think Dumoulin also got slightly better, but Dumoulins weight loss between the 2015 Vuelta and 2017 Giro wasn't big. I think he lost some weight before the 2015 Vuelta though.

As for Wiggins, all the stage races he won on had super TT heavy routes IIRC. Like one steep finish in all those races and it was Mende where he got dropped by Lieuwe frigging Terpstra.
Lieuwe Terpstra? Who dat?
 
The kid has just turned 21 and is already the second best time trialer in the world, and he destroyed the peloton at will in every race last year. What makes you think that he can't win GT's?

Who said he cant ?. Gosh can anyone read what is written ?

My point is the hype on here is mad When he has won a GT I will lump him with champions and he will deserve the same respect Pogacar or Bernal have as they are champions and Evenepoel has not yet delivered

Sure he is talented but you guys have him wining everything before a pedal is pushed and cycling is not like this . We dont know how he will survive 3 weeks of climbing

Its your hype I have a problem with and if it is anything to go by the pressure on the kid must be gigantic
 
Who said he cant ?. Gosh can anyone read what is written ?

My point is the hype on here is mad When he has won a GT I will lump him with champions and he will deserve the same respect Pogacar or Bernal have as they are champions and Evenepoel has not yet delivered

Sure he is talented but you guys have him wining everything before a pedal is pushed and cycling is not like this . We dont know how he will survive 3 weeks of climbing

Its your hype I have a problem with and if it is anything to go by the pressure on the kid must be gigantic
Everybody can cope with three weeks of racing, it's so silly when people always say "but we don't know if he can last for three weeks". Yes, we do!
 
But not everybody excels as well in the big GT mountain stages as they do in one-week stage races' mountain stages. E.g. Fuglsang just doesn't perform at his best in the harder stages of GTs.

What is the hardest climb and overall stage that Evenepoel has done great on/in?
 
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But not everybody excels as well in the big GT mountain stages as they do in one-week stage races' mountain stages. E.g. Fuglsang just doesn't perform at his best in the harder stages of GTs.

What is the hardest climb and overall stage that Evenepoel has done great on/in?
Picon Blanco? Or whichever was the first MTF of Burgos last year. It was after a day of echelons which really benefits him.
 
There's a reason that comes up... the sport is littered with high-calibre riders who didn't excel over three weeks.

Remco might win 5 Tours, he might win none. We don't know yet.
Littered?

Who are all these riders that smash the competition week in week out in high mountains and TTs and then to never get it together in a three week race?

Fuglsang is a shout but I really think it's a mountains issue, not a recovery issue with him.

Spilak? Okay, he won Suisse twice but was always a bit of an oddball, couldn't cope with heat and didn't bother with the Grand Tours.

Who are all the others that litter the sport?
 
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Dumoulin won the Giro at 71kg
Okay, wiki says 69 kg, so I guess we could say +/- 70 kg for Dumoulin

Geraint Thomas is claimed to be 71 kg, but an article in Cyclingweekly says that his optimum racing weight is 67 kg, which btw sounds really low. He must be awfully skinny at that weight.

I must admit that I have a very hard time seeing Ganna as a future GT winner gives his current weight is supposedly 82 kg. Maybe a contender, but even though he loses weight and aims for the GC, I think he will come up short in the mountains. He is just too tall and heavy, unless RCS does something drastic about their route design.

Interesting thought experiment though. If Ganna declares that he will be aiming for the GC and then shows some promise, for example by finishing top 7-8-9 in the Giro, to what degree would RCS customize the next Giro route? Unless they go all-out balistic Montevergine/San Martino di Castrozza-style, a bit more balanced route could prompt some interesting duels between Ganna and the more typical climbers.
 
Okay, wiki says 69 kg, so I guess we could say +/- 70 kg for Dumoulin

Geraint Thomas is claimed to be 71 kg, but an article in Cyclingweekly says that his optimum racing weight is 67 kg, which btw sounds really low. He must be awfully skinny at that weight.

I must admit that I have a very hard time seeing Ganna as a future GT winner gives his current weight is supposedly 82 kg. Maybe a contender, but even though he loses weight and aims for the GC, I think he will come up short in the mountains. He is just too tall and heavy, unless RCS does something drastic about their route design.

Interesting thought experiment though. If Ganna declares that he will be aiming for the GC and then shows some promise, for example by finishing top 7-8-9 in the Giro, to what degree would RCS customize the next Giro route? Unless they go all-out balistic Montevergine/San Martino di Castrozza-style, a bit more balanced route could prompt some interesting duels between Ganna and the more typical climbers.
I do not care about what Wiki says. Dumoulin himself said 71. I think Hesjedahl weighed 72 when he won. I posted the articles somewhere in the clinic section of the forum as a reference for another rider who had been branded a doper for weighing over 70 and climbing well.

Here: https://www.ad.nl/wielrennen/een-kijkje-in-de-machinekamer-van-dumoulin-de-data-achter-de-podiumplaatsen~acf408ab/

Het systeem werkt. En hoe. Dumoulin, 1,86 meter lang, woog bij de start van de Giro 70,2 kilo. Hij was daarmee ietsje lichter dan in de Ronde van Italië van 2017 (70,5), die hij won. De voedingsstrategie was erop gericht om hem vooral niet te laten afvallen tijdens de Giro, zodat hij goed zou herstellen. Verder werd met het oog op de zware derde week een buffer ingebouwd: hij moest iets meer calorieën eten om niet het risico te lopen dat hij ziek zou worden of in elkaar zou storten. Daardoor loopt Dumoulins gewicht tijdens de Giro iets op: hij begint aan de slotweek met 71,1 kilo.
He started the Giro 2017 weighing 70.5 kg and his diet is managed so that he gains weight throughout the 3 weeks. In the final week of the Giro he actually weighed over 71.
 
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Littered?

Who are all these riders that smash the competition week in week out in high mountains and TTs and then to never get it together in a three week race?

Fuglsang is a shout but I really think it's a mountains issue, not a recovery issue with him.

Spilak? Okay, he won Suisse twice but was always a bit of an oddball, couldn't cope with heat and didn't bother with the Grand Tours.

Who are all the others that litter the sport?
Well, more of them are in the Fuglsang mould than the Špilak mould, but there are plenty of people who have underachieved in Grand Tours relative to their perceived talent because of inconsistency. That's the key factor really, needing to be consistent over three weeks. I mean, take somebody like Richie Porte. It took him nearly a decade to better his first GT result which was achieved with a time gift from a breakaway, and despite win after win in major one day races, he would always capitulate in the Grand Tours. It's taken him until 35 to finally make a podium. Then there's people like Rui Costa, who have won the Tour de Suisse three times, four podiums at Romandie, one at Paris-Nice and one at the Dauphiné - and he only has one top 20 in any GT, though he has won multiple stages of the Tour including in the midst of week 3. Frank Vandenbroucke won Paris-Nice, the Österreichrundfahrt and the Volta a Galiza (not a high level race but a mountainous one) but apart from his 12th in the '99 Vuelta registered a 50th and three DNFs in Grand Tours. Davide Rebellin has both won and podiumed Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico (though it wasn't really a GC riders' race when he did in fairness), the mountainous but not high-level Brixia Tour (winning twice) and the Sibiu Tour, podiumed País Vasco and the Ruta del Sol, and managed several top 5s and top 10s at Romandie, Suisse, País Vasco and the Deutschlandtour (at the era when it was targeting being a GC rider's race during the Ullrich era) and apart from two top 10s all the way back in 1996 hasn't been remotely competitive at a Grand Tour, recording 11 DNFs from his last 12 attempts. Marc Soler has time to rectify this, but he has won l'Avenir and Paris-Nice, got two top 5s at Catalunya and a top 10 at Suisse, but has always struggled with up and down form in GTs which is largely why he has never advanced to the stage of justifying leading one. First half of Luís León Sánchez' career is similar, he got things together in 2010 to make the bottom end of the top 10 in the Tour and the Vuelta but never even came close to that again.

Then there are people like Kruijswijk and Enric Más, whose results in GTs are better than over one week because their ability to recover is actually one of their greatest strengths, as they get better as the race goes on, or rather their level deteriorates less with time. Somebody like Špilak, who simply cannot deal with a three week race (and presumably that issue with the heat is a large part of that, since dealing with heat has to be a large factor in two out of the three Grand Tours in the present calendar), is a rarity as most riders can switch their aims around and drop time to stagehunt or go for secondary jerseys, or modify their tactics to suit the team (Rohan Dennis was the strongest climber in week 3 of the Giro, but if he had had to be up there at the front for the first two weeks and hadn't had the chance to drop time to the tune of two hours, would he have had enough left to climb at that level? Impossible to ever know), but the number of riders who have the talent and can feasibly be good after three weeks, but can't do it day in, day out for those three weeks without a bad day that costs them, is many. Plus of course there are people like Porte who do eventually figure it out, but it doesn't come until after their best physical years are behind them. And hell, there are some riders who have an insane palmarès of short stage races and are great enough that they do still score great GC results at Grand Tours, but struggle to convert that into the kind of level of wins that their results elsewhere suggest they should have - Sean Kelly being the ultimate example of this.

However, making any real pronouncements about whether Remco Evenepoel is or isn't such a rider at this point in his career is way, way, way premature.
 
Well, more of them are in the Fuglsang mould than the Špilak mould, but there are plenty of people who have underachieved in Grand Tours relative to their perceived talent because of inconsistency. That's the key factor really, needing to be consistent over three weeks. I mean, take somebody like Richie Porte. It took him nearly a decade to better his first GT result which was achieved with a time gift from a breakaway, and despite win after win in major one day races, he would always capitulate in the Grand Tours. It's taken him until 35 to finally make a podium. Then there's people like Rui Costa, who have won the Tour de Suisse three times, four podiums at Romandie, one at Paris-Nice and one at the Dauphiné - and he only has one top 20 in any GT, though he has won multiple stages of the Tour including in the midst of week 3. Frank Vandenbroucke won Paris-Nice, the Österreichrundfahrt and the Volta a Galiza (not a high level race but a mountainous one) but apart from his 12th in the '99 Vuelta registered a 50th and three DNFs in Grand Tours. Davide Rebellin has both won and podiumed Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico (though it wasn't really a GC riders' race when he did in fairness), the mountainous but not high-level Brixia Tour (winning twice) and the Sibiu Tour, podiumed País Vasco and the Ruta del Sol, and managed several top 5s and top 10s at Romandie, Suisse, País Vasco and the Deutschlandtour (at the era when it was targeting being a GC rider's race during the Ullrich era) and apart from two top 10s all the way back in 1996 hasn't been remotely competitive at a Grand Tour, recording 11 DNFs from his last 12 attempts. Marc Soler has time to rectify this, but he has won l'Avenir and Paris-Nice, got two top 5s at Catalunya and a top 10 at Suisse, but has always struggled with up and down form in GTs which is largely why he has never advanced to the stage of justifying leading one. First half of Luís León Sánchez' career is similar, he got things together in 2010 to make the bottom end of the top 10 in the Tour and the Vuelta but never even came close to that again.

Then there are people like Kruijswijk and Enric Más, whose results in GTs are better than over one week because their ability to recover is actually one of their greatest strengths, as they get better as the race goes on, or rather their level deteriorates less with time. Somebody like Špilak, who simply cannot deal with a three week race (and presumably that issue with the heat is a large part of that, since dealing with heat has to be a large factor in two out of the three Grand Tours in the present calendar), is a rarity as most riders can switch their aims around and drop time to stagehunt or go for secondary jerseys, or modify their tactics to suit the team (Rohan Dennis was the strongest climber in week 3 of the Giro, but if he had had to be up there at the front for the first two weeks and hadn't had the chance to drop time to the tune of two hours, would he have had enough left to climb at that level? Impossible to ever know), but the number of riders who have the talent and can feasibly be good after three weeks, but can't do it day in, day out for those three weeks without a bad day that costs them, is many. Plus of course there are people like Porte who do eventually figure it out, but it doesn't come until after their best physical years are behind them. And hell, there are some riders who have an insane palmarès of short stage races and are great enough that they do still score great GC results at Grand Tours, but struggle to convert that into the kind of level of wins that their results elsewhere suggest they should have - Sean Kelly being the ultimate example of this.

However, making any real pronouncements about whether Remco Evenepoel is or isn't such a rider at this point in his career is way, way, way premature.
Okay, first, I don't know which major one-day races Richie Porte got win after win in (sorry, I couldn't resist), and second, the thing is that Remco is not inconsistent. Last year, he won all his stage races and was on the ball every single race day. Then it just screams conservatism to me when people remain unconvinced and try to lecture me that you can't extrapolate from that into a Grand Tour and whatnot. Because three weeks in a row. And mountains. And altitude. And bad hotels. And...

Then, when Remco does go ahead and win a Grand Tour this year, there will be no acknowledgment from your camp that I was right, because it was all a coin flip whether he could do it three weeks in a row or not, so nothing is proven. To me, if he regains full fitness, there is like a 2 percent chance of him not having what it takes to win a Grand Tour, when other people act as if it's a 50-50 deal.
 
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Okay, first, I don't know which major one-day races Richie Porte got win after win in (sorry, I couldn't resist), and second, the thing is that Remco is not inconsistent. Last year, he won all his stage races and was on the ball every single race day. Then it just screams consertavism to me when people remain unconvinced and try to lecture me that you can't extrapolate from that into a Grand Tour and whatnot. Because three weeks in a row. And mountains. And altitude. And bad hotels. And...

Then, when Remco does go ahead and win a Grand Tour this year, there will be no acknowledgment from your camp that I was right, because it was all a coin flip whether he could do it three weeks in a row or not, so nothing is proven. To me, if he regains full fitness, there is like a 2 percent chance of him not having what it takes to win a Grand Tour, when other people act as if it's a 50-50 deal.
My only hesitancy to saying Remco will podium or win a GT this year is that he's still recovering from the injury. Give him this year to ensure he's healthy before anointing him the next GT winner. Do I think he can win a GT, yes. Do I think he can this year, don't know and that has to do with how well he's recovered. I think expecting him to at least podium if not win one in 2022 is a safer bet.
 
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Okay, first, I don't know which major one-day races Richie Porte got win after win in (sorry, I couldn't resist), and second, the thing is that Remco is not inconsistent. Last year, he won all his stage races and was on the ball every single race day. Then it just screams consertavism to me when people remain unconvinced and try to lecture me that you can't extrapolate from that into a Grand Tour and whatnot. Because three weeks in a row. And mountains. And altitude. And bad hotels. And...

Then, when Remco does go ahead and win a Grand Tour this year, there will be no acknowledgment from your camp that I was right, because it was all a coin flip whether he could do it three weeks in a row or not, so nothing is proven. To me, if he regains full fitness, there is like a 2 percent chance of him not having what it takes to win a Grand Tour, when other people act as if it's a 50-50 deal.
Which camp exactly do you think I'm in? I have barely discussed Evenepoel on this board. I actually think Remco has it in him to win Grand Tours. But I think that the implication that there aren't lots of people who compete for GC over one week but don't have either the endurance, the recovery or the mindset to keep it on the island for three weeks, is false.

Hey, if you wanted to argue that because of how well Remco has adapted to everything so far and that his performances thus far show his base level is extremely high, suggesting that even if he does have bad days, those days will not be the kind that lose big time, and so you don't think recovery will be as much of an issue for Remco as it is for a lot of young riders, I'd be with you pretty much 100% on that, assuming no major lasting effects of his injuries. But there's also nothing wrong in looking at the kind of all-terrain rider that he is and drawing comparisons to riders of similar build, physique, race preferences or style, and concluding that many such riders in recent years have not been able to become Grand Tour contenders but have good one-week results. The problem with that conclusion is that pretty much none of those riders (certainly none in the modern era at least) were as good as Remco as a junior and from the word go as a pro either, so if you take that line it's hard to put a finger on where his ceiling may be.
 
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Littered?

Who are all these riders that smash the competition week in week out in high mountains and TTs and then to never get it together in a three week race?

Fuglsang is a shout but I really think it's a mountains issue, not a recovery issue with him.

Spilak? Okay, he won Suisse twice but was always a bit of an oddball, couldn't cope with heat and didn't bother with the Grand Tours.

Who are all the others that litter the sport?
There's a long history of riders who could win 1-week races but not step up to GTs. Just compile a list of winners of Paris-Nice, Dauphine, Catalunya, Tirreno, Suisse etc etc, cross-check vs GT winners, and eliminate the remainder for obvious exceptions and outliers who got lucky (Talansky, Brajkovic). If you want, you can pull out riders like Purito who could compete for 3 weeks, but just couldn't close the deal. But you're still left with guys like Mottet, Phil Anderson, Urs Zimmerman, etc etc who were very good, could win short stage races, but couldn't win the big ones.
 
Littered?

Who are all these riders that smash the competition week in week out in high mountains and TTs and then to never get it together in a three week race?

Fuglsang is a shout but I really think it's a mountains issue, not a recovery issue with him.

Spilak? Okay, he won Suisse twice but was always a bit of an oddball, couldn't cope with heat and didn't bother with the Grand Tours.

Who are all the others that litter the sport?
At a real stretch you could talk about Leipheimer winning California and Tour de Suisse but even then he got Grand Tour podiums and maxed out his potential.
 
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