Who will be the next home winner of a Grand Tour?

[Red Rick]

A few of these are basically one day flies anyway, which Evenepoel is definitely not. No real reason to assume he's more likely to be the sort that can only be great for one week, though it also still remains to be seen how his climbing lines up vs the best in the world in a race everyone is targetting.

 

[tobydawq]

So I guess Ayuso is in pole position now.

Or can Mas do it?

 

[sir fly]

Vinegar has just done it.

 

[RedheadDane]

Vinegar has just done it.

Much as I would like to claim that Denmark has invaded France, and turned the whole country into Danish province, it's not actually the case.

 

[sir fly]

Much as I would like to claim that Denmark has invaded France, and turned the whole country into Danish province, it's not actually the case.

Haven't we already agreed the invading should occur southeastwards from France?

He started from home...

 

[Squire]

I agree, he could very well be able to win the Vuelta within perhaps 5 years and its unlikely someone else will succeed until then. Landa and Mas or Pinot, Alaphilippe or in some years Gaudu may have a small chance if they get perfect parcours and some luck, but it still seems unlikely so I think we have to wait for Ayusu and hope he lives up to his dominant juniortime. A final joker is Carlos Rodriguez that was also a brilliant junior and is a year ahead of Ayusu and with the usual Ineos magic a Vuelta win is not impossible in 3-4 years.

Solid prediction from early 2021!

 

[Mayomaniac]

Much as I would like to claim that Denmark has invaded France, and turned the whole country into Danish province, it's not actually the case.

You should ty to finally reclaim Schleswig-Holstein first.

 

[RedheadDane]

You should ty to finally reclaim Schleswig-Holstein first.

We had that little vote. Germans can have the Southern parts of Schleswig-Holstein.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Meanwhile it's doom and gloom if we're looking a Italy...

 

[RedheadDane]

Meanwhile it's doom and gloom if we're looking a Italy...

Don't be so sad! You have! Errr... you have... you... have...
No. Sorry. Can't think of any.

 

[Netserk]

We had that little vote. Germans can have the Southern parts of Schleswig-Holstein.

Referendums are convenient when you get half a century to change the demographics. You need less time if you can change them as quickly as Putin does.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Don't be so sad! You have! Errr... you have... you... have...
No. Sorry. Can't think of any.

Be careful or @Ilmaestro99 will tell you what's up...
On paper Tiber should be the real deal, but he hasn't progressed as a stage racer at Trek. Him, Piccolo and Milesi (when he turns pro) have IMO the most potential atm, but they are years away from becoming gt contenders...

 

[ooo]

What you think about Sivakov? He got french passport in 2018 and uci changed his nationality to FR in march 2022

Pavel Sivakov

Pavel Sivakov (born 1997-07-11 in San Donà di Piave) is a professional road racing cyclist from France, currently riding for UAE Team Emirates - XRG. His best results are winning GC Tour de Pologne and winning GC Vuelta a Burgos.

www.procyclingstats.com

 

[tobydawq]

What you think about Sivakov? He got french passport in 2018 and uci changed his nationality to FR in march 2022

Pavel Sivakov

Pavel Sivakov (born 1997-07-11 in San Donà di Piave) is a professional road racing cyclist from France, currently riding for UAE Team Emirates - XRG. His best results are winning GC Tour de Pologne and winning GC Vuelta a Burgos.

www.procyclingstats.com

I actually did mention him in my OP but that was more through wanting to seem clever (he was still Russian at that time) than because I had any real faith in him.

He isn't going to win any Tour.

 

[Berniece]

So I guess Ayuso is in pole position now.

Or can Mas do it?

Together with Carlos Rodriguez. It's going to be fun to see who grew the most over the winter

 

[tobydawq]

Kévin Vauquelin?

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Kévin Vauquelin?

In my opinion its 2 possibilities.

Ganna wins the Giro in 2024 or 2025 with a terrible 2012 tdf route,

Or Enric Mas gets lucky when Roglic, pogacar, Vingegaard and Ajuso don't go in la vuelta one of the next 3 years.

 

[Escarabajo]

1- Ayuso
2- Ganna (with a lot of help)

Too early to know about Kévin Vauquelin. He can bleed time in longer climbs for all I know at this moment. Hard to tell. Additionally every team send their best riders to the Tour de France which makes it really hard.

 

[tobydawq]

In my opinion its 2 possibilities.

Ganna wins the Giro in 2024 or 2025 with a terrible 2012 tdf route,

Or Enric Mas gets lucky when Roglic, pogacar, Vingegaard and Ajuso don't go in la vuelta one of the next 3 years.

So, a Spaniard has to be lucky that a different Spaniard doesn't go?

But yes, that does sound more likely.

Ganna is not happening.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I actually did mention him in my OP but that was more through wanting to seem clever (he was still Russian at that time) than because I had any real faith in him.

He isn't going to win any Tour.

He could win the 2020 Giro.

 

[DNP-Old]

Kévin Vauquelin?

If Route d'Occitanie suddenly acquires Grand Tour status, then sure.

Jokes aside though, Vauquelin hasn't been into the GC game for that long. He came up in the junior and U23 ranks as a time trialist, but has been trying to make the transition since l'Avenir 2021. Despite having slimmed down, he is still rather heavy and I think he'll bleed minutes on minutes on high mountain stages. I believe Couillole on Saturday will be his first >40 minute effort, so we'll see. For now, I think week long stage races is where his limits lay and anything beyond that is undoable, but he may surprise me.

 

[RedheadDane]

He could win the 2020 Giro.

That was a "thing"? People going "Sivakov can totally win the Giro!"?

 

[Red Rick]

Surely Ayuso or Mas have to get a Vuelta before any French or Italian rider breaks through to that level? Especially Ayuso.

Ganna doing it on the big climbs I don't believe until he does something more like Dumoulin in the 2015 Tour. It's easy to ignore just how much bigger Ganna is than Dumoulin.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Mas or Ayuso. The former probably in 2023-24 or never, the latter has more time.

 

[SafeBet]

I don't even think Ganna's problem would be the MTFs, unless you visit the Zoncolan or the Mortirolo.
But I don't think he will ever be able to cope with multi-mountain stages or even the hard hilly stages. Take a stage like Torino last year, raced as it was... Pippo loses 15/20 minutes.