Who will podium TDF 2013 - The 2nd tier contenders

[Duke_S]

Other than the Froome and Contador, who is the best of the rest and has a shot of TDF podium?

Best Placings at the Tour:
Porte (34th - 2012)
Evans (1st - 2011)
Van Garderen (5th - 2012)
A. Schleck (2nd - 2009, 2010, 2011)
Rodriguez (7th - 2010)
Valverde (6th - 2007)
Quintana (First tour)
Van den Broeck (4th - 2010, 2012)
Hesjedal (6th - 2010)
Pinot (10th - 2012)
Rolland (8th - 2012)
Cunego (6th - 2011)

 

[nick101]

for me either rodriguez or valverde. Evans also has a chance if he has recovered well and has good form. Big question mark over evans for me

 

[Jericho]

I'd favor Rodriguez of the group. I can't buy Evan being fresh enough off the Giro. Andy just doesn't seem quite right, but would be the east choice if healthy. Hesjedal's a bit of a wild card, but things didn't go too well in the Giro. I'd say it's probably a year or two early for Van Garderen. And I can't quite buy Porte as being this good despite his season.

that leaves Purito, Valverde, Quintana, and VDB. Valverde has generally disappointed in the Tour, but he went toe-to-toe with Contador and Rodriguez in the 2012 Vuelta. I also believe he's honestly going for it this year. And VDB is underrated. He's finished Top 5 each year he did not crash out for the last 3 years. And I'm not sure what to expect of Quintana. But Rodriguez seems like a good fit for the course and has less question marks. So I voted for him.

 

[Afrank]

Purito and Quintana IMO. I put Quintana their more out of hope than anything else. Hope to see him succeed plus his immense talent. Valverde next best after them, and Pinot is my wildcard bet for a high placing.

Now who to vote for, hmm, would be Purito easily on past performance. But I'll vote Nairo.

 

[Devilen]

if things go well Fuglsang might have a dark horse chance ... with a bit of luck he might sneak into top5

 

[Swede1]

Probably valverde or purito. Probably not enough TT for van garderen to make it on the podium this year, and too early for quintana although he will probably be one of the strongest in the mountains.

 

[xanadu]

Probably valverde or purito. Probably not enough TT for van garderen to make it on the podium this year, and too early for quintana although he will probably be one of the strongest in the mountains.

Good call.........but, maybe Tejay is not only a year older but also a year better. 5th last year whilst still plying nursemaid to an ailing Evans, in fact i will go so far as to say 5th last year when he wasnt allowed to try his best. Now thats impressive.

 

[nick101]

TJ was fifth 11 minutes down on wiggins. If he didn't look after evans, fourth definitely as VDB was only a minute ahead of him. But i don't think 3rd was realistic. Nibali was 5 minutes ahead of TJ. Imo i don't think he could have done that much better (i.e. over 5 minutes better)

 

[The Blues]

Not that it matters too much, but if you put Hesjedal in 6th you should also be putting Andy as 1st in the 2010 Tour.

As goes for the topic I thinks it's going to be Valverde or Tejay van Garderen. Purito maybe, but I'm still unsure of his shape. He'll probably be ready, though.

 

[karlboss]

Kreuziger or (insert your favourite superdoms name here) after a break on stage 19 that isn't properly marked. Hangon, that's for the win. One can dream

 

[SetonHallPirate]

I went with Valverde, although it was tough between him and Van Garderen. Not sure any of the others are in shape.

Actually, unless Contador was REALLY bluffing it out during that ITT in the Dauphine, not sure I wouldn't put Froome, Valverde, and Van Garderen as the top three.

 

[theyoungest]

I went with Valverde, although it was tough between him and Van Garderen. Not sure any of the others are in shape.

Actually, unless Contador was REALLY bluffing it out during that ITT in the Dauphine, not sure I wouldn't put Froome, Valverde, and Van Garderen as the top three.

Apparently you think Van Garderen was bluffing it in the TT in Suisse?

Or do different rules apply, since he's an American?

 

[Gubby Allen]

I think Rodriguez will go close, maybe the closest challenger. Van Garderen a very good chance too. Not convinced Contador will, him and both Movistars will be top 7 or so, but maybe short of podium.

Moreno you can get at 50/1 for a podium, cant see it happening but makes him good odds for a top 6 and top 10 place.

 

[movingtarget]

Forget Schleck this year. The real queries will be VDB, Evans and Pinot. Too soon for Quintana. Valverde does not convince me nor does Rolland or Ryder. Rodriguez should do well until the TTs. Van Garderen I don't think can improve on last year, not yet anyway. Porte should be in the battle for third place but may have to do too much work to hold on although the TTs will be good for him. There are probably 20 possibles for the top 10.

 

[cineteq]

Van Garderen has a good chance, provided he's winning mentality is now ON.

 

[PedalCastro]

TGBM should be in here!

 

[cineteq]

TGBM should be in here!

Absolutely, in place of Schleck.

 

[Warhawk]

They day I bet on Valverde in the TdF is... well... the day I lose a lot of money betting on Valverde in the TdF.

I voted for Tejay because I'm a homer but there's a number of guys with a good shot at the podium. Difficult to say who's really on form this year.

 

[taiwan]

Rodriguez and Porte IMHO.

Quintana is being hyped excessively.

 

[Warhawk]

Quintana is being hyped excessively.

I agree, you have to be wary of a guy going into his first TdF with the kind of expectations he has on him. I'm a little surprised he's the betting favorite over TJVG for the white jersey (looks a little more split for yellow, probably due to TJVG's experience in the race meaning he'd be less likely to make some sort of major gaffe). Not that I don't think Quintana can beat him, mind you - far from it. I just think the horse is about a mile back of the cart at this point.

 

[Leendert82]

Mollema for 3rd spot

 

[plooton]

Kreuziger or (insert your favourite superdoms name here) after a break on stage 19 that isn't properly marked. Hangon, that's for the win. One can dream

TdF 2013 resulting likewise the Oscar Pereiro's one? Nice idea

 

[Viking]

I'm liking Purito's chances more and more as the TdF draws near. I'm not really sure why, other than wishful thinking. On the other hand, the chronos aren't the long, flat, power courses of previous years, so I think he'll do better than a lot of people think on them.

Here's why I didn't vote for these guys:
Porte - Working for Froome, and I don't see him being able to match Froome's performance, like Froome did with Wiggins last year.
Evans - Maybe...But he has a strong Giro in his legs, so I expect him to fade in the thrid week.
Van Garderen - Probably working for Evans. When Evans fades, Van Garderen will be too far back to podium.
A. Schleck - No evidence he's recovered from last year. Not sure if he ever will.
Valverde - Maybe, but he never quite performs in TdF.
Quintana - Same situation as Van Garderen with Valverde in the Evans role. Plus, I think he needs another year to be considered a true podium contender.
Van den Broeck - The team looks too focused on Greipel to truly support him when he'll need it most.
Hesjedal - I'm not convinced he'll be the team leader. He may be supporting Martin or Talansky.
Other - Vino isn't racing.

 

[MrTea1976]

Voted Purito but I'd prefer it to be Dan Martin.

 

[xanadu]

TJ was fifth 11 minutes down on wiggins. If he didn't look after evans, fourth definitely as VDB was only a minute ahead of him. But i don't think 3rd was realistic. Nibali was 5 minutes ahead of TJ. Imo i don't think he could have done that much better (i.e. over 5 minutes better)

Yes Tejay was 5th last year and could have been 4th. But this year there is no Wiggo or Nibali, and Tejay is a year older.