Who will wear red in Madrid.

[zapata]

That all depends on the breakaway, doesn't it? Breakaways have done quite well so far.

Although presumably there will be other teams motivated to work at the front even though Liquigas will be content to let the breakaway off into the distance. The fact that everyone as far back as ninth will think that a podium place is conceivable will probably mean that teams like Katusha, Saxobank and Cervelo will want to keep the bonus seconds in play. Ag2r will be less worried about the bonus points but may want to keep the pace high to tire out some of the smaller climbers on the flat. That's a lot of potential allies of convenience for Xacobeo.

Yes; I don't think a breakaway will take this. (And even if they do, I think Mosquera can quite possibly take forty seconds from Nibali. From what I've seen, the pictures someone posted, the climb looks terrifying, and Nibali is just not climbing like the very best.)

 

[taiwan]

I think Liquigas could have stage 20 disappointingly under control. Nibali will have Kreuziger with him until very late on. At the Giro he was 4th at Kronplatz and 7th on the Zoncolan. I think he'll be able to limit any losses to Mosquera with the stakes as they are. It will be a close one.

 

[icefire]

We'll see a replay of this:

 

[icefire]

Damn. Once you voted, you cant see the names of who is voting for who.

Yes, you can

The number of votes is the link

 

[Mambo95]

I hope for the sake of cycling that Eze wins the Vuelta..
Nibali needs to win the stage(which won't happen) to became the rightful winner-otherwise his victory will be tasteless

Why should it matter whether he wins a stage or not? Mosquera hasn't won one either. In fact he's only won four races in his entire career (A stage of the Vuelta a Burgos being the biggest)

 

[The Hitch]

I think Liquigas could have stage 20 disappointingly under control. Nibali will have Kreuziger with him until very late on. At the Giro he was 4th at Kronplatz and 7th on the Zoncolan. I think he'll be able to limit any losses to Mosquera with the stakes as they are. It will be a close one.

This is my worry. But with 3 climbs and no future way to lose time gained, im hoping Schleck Purito Carlos go go go. Early preferably. Knock Liqui out early.

 

[The Hitch]

Yes, you can

The number of votes is the link

Thanks.
Eze started off with an 90% to 10 % ad. Its become 30 70 now. Looks like Nibalis precincts are coming in late.

Usually i expect the extremely unlikely option to be boosted by non frequent posters, trolls and wonderlance. Yet to my shock i find 2 regular posters Quadsrme and Michelle think neither will win the Vuelta.

what do you know that we dont?
Do tell.

 

[hfer07]

Why should it matter whether he wins a stage or not? Mosquera hasn't won one either. In fact he's only won four races in his entire career (A stage of the Vuelta a Burgos being the biggest)

Perhaps you misinterpreted me- Eze has done everything right with his agressive style & class-regardless if he's won an stageor not--on the other hand, Nibali has just "manage" to stay in contention and really getting the Rojo jersey by default-- so for him to redeem himself to me-at least- he must crush the compettion on Saturday, so his victory won't carry those shadows of doubt & sour flavor-in another words- a victory without panache...

 

[Winterfold]

I think Nibali will hang in there (just) but he will find out how much it hurts to win a GT - but I can also see Mosquera dropping him in the last few km. I think Nibali is tough enough to take the pain on balance - as others have said he did well on the bonkers stages of the Giro.

Bit disappointed with Rodrigues TT I know he is no great shakes but thought he would put up more of a fight...

 

[Mambo95]

Perhaps you misinterpreted me- Eze has done everything right with his agressive style & class-regardless if he's won an stageor not--on the other hand, Nibali has just "manage" to stay in contention and really getting the Rojo jersey by default-- so for him to redeem himself to me-at least- he must crush the compettion on Saturday, so his victory won't carry those shadows of doubt & sour flavor-in another words- a victory without panache...

Nibali has ridden to his strengths and Mosquera has ridden to his - that's how races are raced. Whoever wins will have deserved it. None of this 'style and class' nonsense.

 

[The Hitch]

If Mosquera takes the stage, and doesnt know how far behind Nibali is, we could see someone take a stage victory without celebrating. In such a situation he should just drive for the line. Every second counts. Earlier this year, Spillak didnt drive for the line but celebrated even though he was still in the gc hunt. That didnt cost him. Scarponi on the other had, in Tireno. tut tut tut. Lost the race on tiebreak but could have got the extra second by not celebrating.

Since this is a gt, i hope Eze wont make that mistake if fate brings us that scenario.

Also, since im on a roll, imagine if Mosquera comes 3rd and Nibali 4th and Mosquera wins by 3 seconds, thanks to the 3rd place 8 second bonus. THen afterwards someone who came 2nd in the stage is dqd. that would mean that mosquera should have been 2nd and got 12 bonus seconds, and Nibali 3rd and 8 bonus seconds, which would overturn the result and give the Vuelta to Nibali by 1 second. Or would they not do it.

Some fun scenarios we can come up with here. Its not often you get stage 20 as a mtf with such a small gap between contenders.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Some fun scenarios we can come up with here. Its not often you get stage 20 as a mtf with such a small gap between contenders.

This is what the Tour organisers had in mind when they designed the 2009 Tour. Unfortunately they didn't get the showdown and they got a boring race before it. They'd do well to learn from this race, this is how you set up an epic finale.

 

[The Hitch]

This is what the Tour organisers had in mind when they designed the 2009 Tour. Unfortunately they didn't get the showdown and they got a boring race before it. They'd do well to learn from this race, this is how you set up an epic finale.

I was thinking of Ventoux too but Contador was way in front. Probably wouldnt have mattered anyway, seing as Frank didnt do that much to try and get that podium.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I was thinking of Ventoux too but Contador was way in front. Probably wouldnt have mattered anyway, seing as Frank didnt do that much to try and get that podium.

But when they scheduled Ventoux for stage 20 they were hoping for a showdown like this. That's why they scheduled rubbish mountaintops like Arcalis, wasted the big mountains with stages like the one to Tarbes and provided a weak route, all in anticipation of that one big stage to Ventoux. Only Contador was too good for the showdown, and the showdown for the podium was a massive letdown anyway.

This Vuelta, they've been splitting the field with exciting finishes from stage 2 onwards, three straight MTFs of different types and a long, pancake flat ITT, and now we've had two and a half weeks of mostly very good racing, and have a final day showdown too.

The Tour removed all the toughness in the anticipation of making one stage key after three weeks of not too much, so that the time gaps would be small, and got a damp squib after three boring weeks where one rider had a big time gap. The Vuelta put in a lot of toughness, brutal difficulty, hard climbing and a long TT designed to create time gaps, and got a final day showdown with very small time gaps among top riders - Hard luck Prudhomme, better luck next time.

 

[blaxland]

Nibali will win this vuelta with Eze finishing a close 2nd....Third place is anyones guess with the advantage going to Velitis,but dont write off Roche...Liquigas will control the final climb...or should i say Krueziger....

 

[royalpig180]

This is what the Tour organisers had in mind when they designed the 2009 Tour. Unfortunately they didn't get the showdown and they got a boring race before it. They'd do well to learn from this race, this is how you set up an epic finale.

Hmm but tbh, the same thing would have happened in this Vuelta had Anton not crashed out... This wouldn't be a competitive stage as he'd have a 3-4 minute lead in hand already.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Mosquera takes it. To be honest, even though this Vuelta has been good, Anton being gone has put a damper on it for me. Theres always going to be that asterisk next to the winner, considering how good Anton was looking. Who thinks Velits can hold on for third? I hope so.

 

[Scirea]

Mosquera takes it. To be honest, even though this Vuelta has been good, Anton being gone has put a damper on it for me. Theres always going to be that asterisk next to the winner, considering how good Anton was looking. Who thinks Velits can hold on for third? I hope so.

He looked good but it doesn't mean anything. He abandoned the race before the decisive stages. (14, 15, 16, 17, 20)

 

[ericthesportsman6]

He looked good but it doesn't mean anything. He abandoned the races before the decisive stages. (14, 15, 16, 17, 20)

I guess your right. I really just miss him because I think this was finally his year, and at the very least, he's exciting.

 

[Climbing]

Nibali will hold because of the team.
And a breakaway will get the stage so there will be no bonuses.
Everything will be decided in the last 3 km I suppose.

 

[Jan the Man]

I have a feeling Nibali will win.

 

[Moncoutie]

Was torn between wanting Nibali & Mosquera to win at the start, but now firmly in Mosqueras corner.

Nibali was my pick to win (even had a few quid on him) but despite his position I'm not as impressed with him as I was at the Giro. Expected Mosquera to peform similarly to last year, but hes exceeded those expectations, especially yesterday. See him dropping Nibali on the last few kms & just taking enough time.

 

[The Hitch]

btw isnt the time needed by Mosquera similar to the one needed by Lemond in 89? Will we see Mosquera standing by the finishing line counting down the time.

 

[Leopejo]

Perhaps you misinterpreted me- Eze has done everything right with his agressive style & class-regardless if he's won an stageor not--on the other hand, Nibali has just "manage" to stay in contention and really getting the Rojo jersey by default-- so for him to redeem himself to me-at least- he must crush the compettion on Saturday, so his victory won't carry those shadows of doubt & sour flavor-in another words- a victory without panache...

One stage he attacked alone, another stage he attacked with Mosquera, a couple of times he blew - not your usual "let me control it on the climbs and then I'll show them in the TT". It's not Nibali's fault if the mountain goats in this Vuelta have been quite disappointing, with most mountain stages seeing a handful of riders in 30 seconds.

To be honest, it's also not mountain goats' fault that this year's route was quite disappointing (to me): too short climbs to the finish lines and very few climbs before the them. Maybe good for those wanting excitement to the last stage, but not much "real" drama, when blowing means losing about half a minute.

 

[nvpacchi]

If Mosquera wins by less than 20 seconds, Nibali will be kicking himself for his panic attack when he flatted in the TT.

Mosquera does seem fresher now, and Bola has his name written all over it.