Who will wear red in Madrid.

[Scirea]

Perhaps we should not overlook the fact that if there is less than 5 seconds seperating them on the Bello, someone might try to make Madrid competitive

I think none of them would do that.

 

[jaylew]

If I were forced to pick I'd go with Mosquera but honestly, I wish there was an option for "I have no idea"

 

[Señor_Contador]

I have the feeling that one key point is the right hand curve after leaving Navacerrada, when the cement to Bola del Mundo starts. There is not much space there for many riders, the slope is suddenly 18%, and the cement is in a bad condition. The first 2-3 riders passing there will probably see theirselves some few valuable meters in front of the others....

From there up it is just about suffering. In some parts it will not be easy to overcome other cyclists, specially if it is wet (probably it will rain) and if there are many people on the sides (which is a sure thing). If it rains I think the riders must make the ride up seated all the time, because the grip is awful. I don't know who is benefited by that or if it is important though .

It will be a stage for the ages for sure. Looks like XG have done this climb a couple of times already, and this is mighty important.

XG also have an arduous task ahead of them. On the one side they have to make sure all attacks threaten the 20-second gift for the # 1 spot. At the same time they have to figure out a way to drop Nibali, which Mosquera has already done mind you (at Cotobello), but this time around the Spaniard will need at least 25 seconds.

Either way, edge-of-your-seat stuff is ensured.

I can't wait!

 

[Menndo]

I think Nibali will win because he can climb better than Mosquera in mountains with high percentages like the Bola del Mundo. He already proved it finishing ahead of Mosquera in Xorret de Cati, Valdepeñas and Cabarga.

Besides, Mosquera would need the bonus and I can't see him getting it, because there are some riders with a better finish, like Purito, for instance.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

But Xorret de Cati, Valdepenas and Cabarga were short climbs, and those steep sections did not come after alread 19km of climbing (Navacerrada is in front of the 3km Bola del Mundo)
So bad comparison Menndo.
Also, the last km of the Cotobello was also steep and Mosquera dropped Nibali there...

Try again next time!

 

[Menndo]

The max percentage in cotobello is 10% while in Bola del Mundo is 20%, so you can´t compare these two climbs. And I don't think Cabarga is so short, i believe it is about 6 km.

Navacerrada is not a hard climb, it is difficult to drop someone who's drafting you, so I think that only the last 2-3 kms can make a difference.

 

[nvpacchi]

Don't know if anyone posted this scenario, but if Purito and Mosquera come to the finish line together. Does Purito gift Mosquera the stage and the bonus seconds?

 

[Scirea]

Don't know if anyone posted this scenario, but if Purito and Mosquera come to the finish line together. Does Purito gift Mosquera the stage and the bonus seconds?

Depends on how far back Nibali is. If it's a close call then yes.

 

[The Hitch]

Don't know if anyone posted this scenario, but if Purito and Mosquera come to the finish line together. Does Purito gift Mosquera the stage and the bonus seconds?

Those would be a nice blackmail scenario for Purito

Mosquera - let me win
Purito - give me 1 million dollars
Mosquera - no
Purito - adios gt
Mosquera - deal.

I think if Purito works for Mosquera all the way, including having Katusha chase breakaway, and they have a good gap, he gets the stage win as a thanks. Unless its still close in which case the above mentioned scenario comes into place.

 

[hrotha]

Don't know if anyone posted this scenario, but if Purito and Mosquera come to the finish line together. Does Purito gift Mosquera the stage and the bonus seconds?

That would be a disgrace.

 

[Midnite]

Seeing as Nibali faded in almost every mountain top stage i believe Mosquera has real chances of winning this, even if Liquigas has a much stronger team than Xacobeo.

In a climb like Bola del Mundo, which is longer than any previous mountain in this Vuleta and with the last kilometers hitting gradients of 20% i really don't see Nibali with legs to chase other climbers.

 

[Scirea]

Seeing as Nibali faded in almost every mountain top stage i believe Mosquera has real chances of winning this, even if Liquigas has a much stronger team than Xacobeo.

In a climb like Bola del Mundo, which is longer than any previous mountain in this Vuleta and with the last kilometers hitting gradients of 20% i really don't see Nibali with legs to chase other climbers.

Liquigas is weaker in the mountains than Xacobeo, weaker by a lot. They have Kreuziger and nobody else, Zaugg is totally out-of-form. Xacobeo has David Garcia, Rabunal, Marcos Garcia, Cesar Veloso...

 

[Zoncolan]

Mosquera should win this easy now.
Schleck or Sastre to get 3rd on the podium.

 

[royalpig180]

Seeing as Nibali faded in almost every mountain top stage i believe Mosquera has real chances of winning this, even if Liquigas has a much stronger team than Xacobeo.

In a climb like Bola del Mundo, which is longer than any previous mountain in this Vuleta and with the last kilometers hitting gradients of 20% i really don't see Nibali with legs to chase other climbers.

That's true. So what Liquigas needs to do is keep the pace high enough at the top of the Bola del Mundo (the portion after the Navacerada) to prevent truly explosive attacks from splitting things up. To do this, they should let another team (probably Katusha or Xacobeo) control the elite group up to the start of the Bola and have Kreuziger hang on to the back of the group. When they hit it, send him to the front to set a high pace and make it harder to attack...

Nibali doesn't have to explosiveness to chase down attacks but he has a chance of making it just behind the other climbers if they are forced to do it at a steady pace.

With that said, attacks will always still be possible, its just a question of whether Nibali blows up shortly after Kreuziger kills himself to bring back Mosquera or whoever else they're chasing (though they obviously should only focus on Mosquera).

 

[Galic Ho]

Those would be a nice blackmail scenario for Purito

Mosquera - let me win
Purito - give me 1 million dollars
Mosquera - no
Purito - adios gt
Mosquera - deal.

I think if Purito works for Mosquera all the way, including having Katusha chase breakaway, and they have a good gap, he gets the stage win as a thanks. Unless its still close in which case the above mentioned scenario comes into place.

Is that a million dollars or pesos? A million pesos is a good deal. Dollars! Dude, ICC, match fixing in cricket. This would be worse. Even Lance didn't pay a million bucks for a favour.

 

[khardung la]

That's true. So what Liquigas needs to do is keep the pace high enough at the top of the Bola del Mundo (the portion after the Navacerada) to prevent truly explosive attacks from splitting things up.

No chance, it is too narrow there, too steepy for a controlled pace, the grip of the cement is awful and it will be difficult to keep a constant pace. It is a survival mode kind of climb. They will climb one by one, struggling in each of the curves with all the fans around.

 

[colmenarejo]

I rode up the Bola del Mundo yesterday and it could be absolute carnage come Saturday. If the weather stays wet then grip may be a major problem, the surface for the 3k is concrete slabs embedded with pebbles. It was only a little bit damp yesterday and my back wheel spun a few times (and I'm 80 kilos with a alu bike!).

Probably the worst thing about the climb is you can´t see the end or the road ahead, you just see up to the next corner, hoping that around that corner it will be flatter but when you get around the corner the gradient is the same or worse and there is another corner 100m away.

 

[Climbing]

Do you think they are gonna use Compact for this stage.
It seems indicated, considering the difficult grip for out of the saddle.

 

[Wergeland]

I rode up the Bola del Mundo yesterday and it could be absolute carnage come Saturday. If the weather stays wet then grip may be a major problem, the surface for the 3k is concrete slabs embedded with pebbles. It was only a little bit damp yesterday and my back wheel spun a few times (and I'm 80 kilos with a alu bike!).

Probably the worst thing about the climb is you can´t see the end or the road ahead, you just see up to the next corner, hoping that around that corner it will be flatter but when you get around the corner the gradient is the same or worse and there is another corner 100m away.

Thanks for the update.

Btw, does anyone remember which thread the photos for Bola del Mundo was posted in?

 

[khardung la]

Thanks for the update.

Btw, does anyone remember which thread the photos for Bola del Mundo was posted in?

There http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?p=335897#post335897 onwards there are photos and comments about it. Would be nice to have a thread with all that info . Including for example this http://apmforo.mforos.com/401631/9696076-la-bola-sufrimiento-belleza-dureza-gloria/

 

[Scirea]

There http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?p=335897#post335897 onwards there are photos and comments about it. Would be nice to have a thread with all that info . Including for example this http://apmforo.mforos.com/401631/9696076-la-bola-sufrimiento-belleza-dureza-gloria/

Watching those pictures i'm even more confident now that Eze will get the red jersey.

 

[Climbing]

There is a Contador video too, if you didn't see it yet, of him training there in preparation for TdF.
Here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cB2sZTtkUB0

 

[van nelle]

Even if I would like to see Vincenzo take the win, I woted for Eze - 30 sec lost because of the puncture in ITT will be decisive I think. Also I don't agree with those who think that Liqui is a stronger team than XC - if they are on flat, thay are definitely not stronger in steep climbs. Actually I'm eager to see what will Roman do and what kind of performance will he be able tu put there - I have a feeling that Vincenzo and Roman will experience a bit of hell on Earth out there with so many strong riders still in contention for podium (pred - Peter Velits will hang on). In any case good for them, this Vuelta served them well for the future for sure.

And if I'm wrong and Nibs and Liquigas take teh GC, than hurray because they were strong from the begining and for such a young team tactically adept.

 

[The Hitch]

Liquigas is weaker in the mountains than Xacobeo, weaker by a lot. They have Kreuziger and nobody else, Zaugg is totally out-of-form. Xacobeo has David Garcia, Rabunal, Marcos Garcia, Cesar Veloso...

Who?

 

[khardung la]

Who?

Cesar Veloso won in Xorret del Cati in La Vuelta in 2009. He is a good climber. He won Volta a Catalunya in 2008 also.

Marcos Garcia is from San Martín de Valdeiglesias (where the stage of Bola del Mundo starts) and he must know the region and the last climb perfectly. That can be a good advantage against the Liquigas guys. For me knowing the last 3 kms and getting a good gear combination will be decisive. It is not so much about the 20% stretches, it is about the need to climb seated due to the lack of grip. Plus he is a good climber.

Rabunal is doing good in this vuelta.