Who will wear red in Madrid.

[Dekker_Tifosi]

What if they both collapse and Peter Velits takes a shock win

 

[The Hitch]

If Mosquera wins by less than 20 seconds, Nibali will be kicking himself for his panic attack when he flatted in the TT.

Mosquera does seem fresher now, and Bola has his name written all over it.

Literaly. All those thousands of fans will be writing his name all over it in chalk

What if they both collapse and Peter Velits takes a shock win

clinic

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Anyone think a Spanish combined attack could take place on saturday?

I mean, they HAVE done it in the past when a foreigner was threatening to take the overall win.

 

[El Pistolero]

Anyone think a Spanish combined attack could take place on saturday?

I mean, they HAVE done it in the past when a foreigner was threatening to take the overall win.

I expect Purito to help Mosquera. No "suicide" help or anything, but still some help.


He probably already has enough points to secure first place in the UCI world ranking event, if that matters to him.

 

[hrotha]

Gods, I hope none of that happens, that'd be so lame. This is not the WC.

 

[Climbing]

I expect Purito to help Mosquera. No "suicide" help or anything, but still some help.


He probably already has enough points to secure first place in the UCI world ranking event, if that matters to him.

What kind of help?
Nibali will mark only Mosquera, that's all.
If he or Krueziger can follow him, it's done... otherwise Nibali will lose GC.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

other than gesink, I haven't wanted anyone to win a GT so bad since ullrich... until Eze

 

[Libertine Seguros]

btw isnt the time needed by Mosquera similar to the one needed by Lemond in 89? Will we see Mosquera standing by the finishing line counting down the time.

I would love that, say Mosquera won the stage, crossed over the line with no celebration whatsoever, just stopped and stared at the clock, and then if it got to 19 seconds just exploded with cheers.

 

[Señor_Contador]

Has Nibali actually seen the Bola del Mundo climb? Mosquera, his team and the majority of the other teams have done the climb at least once. Nibali, on the other hand, is on I-don't-care-because-the-Giro-climbs/mountain stages-are-a-lot-harder-thus-this-one-will-be-a-"no chain"-ride-for-me mode while everyone keeps telling him to watch out.

I personally do not think he has any idea what he's up against.

The temperature in the last climb is going to hover around the single digits on Saturday (40s-50s Farenheit) and it's going to rain, which is perfect Galician weather. And Mosquera is Galician so... you connect the dots.

 

[Scirea]

What kind of help?
Nibali will mark only Mosquera, that's all.
If he or Krueziger can follow him, it's done... otherwise Nibali will lose GC.

Not that simple. Purito can ride a really good tempo if he wants to. Eze will go with him of course and that could put Kreuziger (or Nibali...) in difficulities. Or even better, Purito could put his team on the fron on the climb before to hammer the pace the again at the start of Bola.

 

[Climbing]

Well, this means that Rodriguez is gonna work for Mosquera like this.
I found this very unlikely, but anyway Nibali will follow only Mosquera, that's sure.
If he cannot follow (and is pretty much possible i suppose) than it's game over.
I think a breakaway will get the stage for sure, and Mosquera will wait the last 3 km to launch a strong attack and hope Nibali will crumble trying to follow.
No one will attack from 100 km especially if we gonna have bad weather conditions.
But I'm open minded for any other possible scenario.

 

[Scirea]

Well, this means that Rodriguez is gonna work for Mosquera like this.
I found this very unlikely, but anyway Nibali will follow only Mosquera, that's sure.
If he cannot follow (and is pretty much possible i suppose) than it's game over.
I think a breakaway will get the stage for sure, and Mosquera will wait the last 3 km to launch a strong attack and hope Nibali will crumble trying to follow.
No one will attack from 100 km especially if we gonna have bad weather conditions.
But I'm open minded for any other possible scenario.

Break won't take the stage, too much interest for time bonuses. (by Eze and the 4-9th placed riders)

 

[Climbing]

We shall see.
Liquigas is not going to stop breakaway, that's for sure so it's up to other teams to do this work, if they are capable.
Not an easy stage to control by any means.

 

[icefire]

Has Nibali actually seen the Bola del Mundo climb? Mosquera, his team and the majority of the other teams have done the climb at least once. Nibali, on the other hand, is on I-don't-care-because-the-Giro-climbs/mountain stages-are-a-lot-harder-thus-this-one-will-be-a-"no chain"-ride-for-me mode while everyone keeps telling him to watch out.

I personally do not think he has any idea what he's up against.

The temperature in the last climb is going to hover around the single digits on Saturday (40s-50s Farenheit) and it's going to rain, which is perfect Galician weather. And Mosquera is Galician so... you connect the dots.

If Nibali hasn't seen Bola del Mundo it's clearly his mistake. Bola del Mundo is just 2hrs drive from wherever they slept the rest day before the ITT.

 

[The Hitch]

Has Nibali actually seen the Bola del Mundo climb? Mosquera, his team and the majority of the other teams have done the climb at least once. Nibali, on the other hand, is on I-don't-care-because-the-Giro-climbs/mountain stages-are-a-lot-harder-thus-this-one-will-be-a-"no chain"-ride-for-me mode while everyone keeps telling him to watch out.

I personally do not think he has any idea what he's up against.

The temperature in the last climb is going to hover around the single digits on Saturday (40s-50s Farenheit) and it's going to rain, which is perfect Galician weather. And Mosquera is Galician so... you connect the dots.

What makes you think this is Nibalis approcah?

 

[Scirea]

We shall see.
Liquigas is not going to stop breakaway, that's for sure so it's up to other teams to do this work, if they are capable.
Not an easy stage to control by any means.

To say it an other way: those 6 teams (Xacobeo, Saxo, Katusha, Cervelo, AG2R, Garmin) not only will chase down the breakaways but maybe even more importantly they won't put any strong riders in it. That leaves some losers from FDJ, Footon, Milram and co. to form the winning break. Good luck with that.

 

[The Hitch]

To say it an other way: those 6 teams (Xacobeo, Saxo, Katusha, Cervelo, AG2R, Garmin) not only will chase down the breakaways but maybe even more importantly they won't put any strong riders in it. That leaves some losers from FDJ, Footon, Milram and co. to form the winning break. Good luck with that.

Yep those losers in Caisse really dont know what their playing with. What made them think 2nd in Giro (Arroyo) 3rd in Giro (Marzio) a Paris Nice (Luis Leon) could cut it at the Vuelta

 

[hrotha]

Don't underestimate Euskaltel.

Also, I don't see Roche or Danielson winning, so surely it's in their best interest to let a break take the time bonus and hope for the best in the final climb.

 

[khardung la]

Has Nibali actually seen the Bola del Mundo climb? Mosquera, his team and the majority of the other teams have done the climb at least once. Nibali, on the other hand, is on I-don't-care-because-the-Giro-climbs/mountain stages-are-a-lot-harder-thus-this-one-will-be-a-"no chain"-ride-for-me mode while everyone keeps telling him to watch out.

I personally do not think he has any idea what he's up against.

I have the feeling that one key point is the right hand curve after leaving Navacerrada, when the cement to Bola del Mundo starts. There is not much space there for many riders, the slope is suddenly 18%, and the cement is in a bad condition. The first 2-3 riders passing there will probably see theirselves some few valuable meters in front of the others....

From there up it is just about suffering. In some parts it will not be easy to overcome other cyclists, specially if it is wet (probably it will rain) and if there are many people on the sides (which is a sure thing). If it rains I think the riders must make the ride up seated all the time, because the grip is awful. I don't know who is benefited by that or if it is important though .

 

[Scirea]

Don't underestimate Euskaltel.

Also, I don't see Roche or Danielson winning, so surely it's in their best interest to let a break take the time bonus and hope for the best in the final climb.

Wrong. If they can't beat their rivals then no harm in time bonuses because they wouldn't podium anyway. If they can beat them they can use the bonus seconds.

 

[Scirea]

Yep those losers in Caisse really dont know what their playing with. What made them think 2nd in Giro (Arroyo) 3rd in Giro (Marzio) a Paris Nice (Luis Leon) could cut it at the Vuelta

Clearly there are some good riders left in the peloton but it's important that like 30-40 riders will want to attack not 130-140. Plus Katusha won't let anybody from Caisse go so that rules them out too.

 

[khardung la]

In case someone did not watch this, there are some images of Contador training in bola del Mundo in a sunny day (he uses to train there).http://www.marca.com/2010/06/25/ciclismo/1277462676.html?a=7f1328f251f8626aee0aa1d253a9e606&t=1284650514 You have to wait for the advertising to finish...

 

[Señor_Contador]

What makes you think this is Nibalis approcah?

I'm not saying he takes such an approach, it's just my perception of what he thinks based on what he has said. I mean, even today, he named only Mosquera as his only competition. He's got Peter Velits at 2 minutes, Frank Schleck at 3'43''... and a beast of a climb ahead of him.

I sincerely wish him the best.

 

[hrotha]

I'm not saying he takes such an approach, it's just my perception of what he thinks based on what he has said. I mean, even today, he named only Mosquera as his only competition. He's got Peter Velits at 2 minutes, Frank Schleck at 3'43''... and a beast of a climb ahead of him.

I sincerely wish him the best.

If he loses 2 minutes to Velits and 4 to any of the others there's probably nothing to worry about anymore.

 

[The Hitch]

Perhaps we should not overlook the fact that if there is less than 5 seconds seperating them on the Bello, someone might try to make Madrid competitive