Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[JA.Tri]

+1
Qualifier: density may vary.

Be great if we could recognize this and take action to reduce this blight.

Staying on topic and addressing the post rather than the person would be a good starting point.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Race starts again tomorrow (geddit?).

Don't expect anything massive tomorrow, adrenaline will get everyone through the first 4km and then there's not much left, but we will see.

 

[nickel999]

Quietly and out of media hype, Basso is in a pretty good position here.

Yes, cries of "old man" will come.

But if Nibali falls back in the mountains and cards fall into place, well.....just sayin

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Quietly and out of media hype, Basso is in a pretty good position here.

Yes, cries of "old man" will come.

But if Nibali falls back in the mountains and cards fall into place, well.....just sayin

For a man who didn't inhale, it's amazing how much worse his TTing is post ban.

 

[TheEnoculator]

Let's get the mountains started. We need the peloton to calm down a bit. Plus I'm getting sick of reading about Sagan already.

 

[nickel999]

For a man who didn't inhale, it's amazing how much worse his TTing is post ban.

+1........

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Race got even easier for wiggo today IMO.

 

[Fergoose]

Purely because some of the leading lights on this thread sneered at my predictions at the beginning of the race, please forgive me for a brief self-indulgent review of them:

1. Wiggins
2. Evans
3. Froome*
4. Nibali
5. Fuglsang**

*or Nibali if the road is melting or wet on stages with mountain descent finishes.
** Assuming there is no clear team leader he has to break his back for

F. Schleck & Gesink will both be non-factors for 1st place on GC before the mountains arrive (heck, non & factor could be Gesink's middle names in July).

Surprised nobody is having a thought for Taaramae as an outside bet for podium

In the words of the late great Winston Churchill; “ram it up yer kilt!”.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

There's still two weeks pal.

Anyway the cuddles v Evans battle appears to be coming true.

Gogo Evans

 

[dlwssonic]

There's still two weeks pal.

Anyway the cuddles v Evans battle appears to be coming true.

Gogo Evans

yes indeed its cadel against himself

 

[cineteq]

Stage 8 GC (Favorites, Contenders, Dark Horses)
WIGGINS Bradley SKY
EVANS Cadel BMC +10
NIBALI Vincenzo LIQ +16
MENCHOV Denis KAT +54
FROOME Chris SKY +1.32
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen LTB +2.11
ROCHE Nicolas AG2 +2.21
TAARAMAE Rein COF +2.27
HORNER Christopher RSN +3.43
SCHLECK Frank RNT +3.47
BRAJKOVIC Janez AST +4.03
VAN GARDEREN Tejay BMC +4.08
KLÖDEN Andreas RNT +4.24
ROLLAND Pierre EUC +4.26
LEIPHEIMER Levi OPQ +4.46
COPPEL Jérôme SAU +5.37
VALVERDE Alejandro MOV +6.45

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

basically a 6 man race maybe

 

[will10]

A real shame Vandenbroeck lost time yesterday.

 

[roundabout]

Yes. 6 it is. Shame about VDBs lost time yesterday.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

A real shame Vandenbroeck lost time yesterday.

I just noticed he's the only GC contender without his own topic, lol.

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

I just noticed he's the only GC contender without his own topic, lol.

You would expect it be to be Menchov.

 

[patrick767]

Now what? Nevermind the pre-race favorites and dark horses. Many of the latter in particular have been injured and/or lost time in crashes. Others have disappointed (e.g. Kloden). Current top ten:

1 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Procycling 38:17:56
2 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:00:10
3 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:00:16
4 Denis Menchov (Rus) Katusha Team 0:00:54
5 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) RadioShack-Nissan 0:00:59
6 Christopher Froome (GBr) Sky Procycling 0:01:32
7 Maxime Monfort (Bel) RadioShack-Nissan 0:02:08
8 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Lotto Belisol Team 0:02:11
9 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:21
10 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Le Credit En Ligne 0:02:27

Wiggins and Evans are obviously living up to their pre-race favorites status.

Nibali has excelled but will lose time to Wiggins and Evans in the ITTs. Can he gain it back anywhere?

Menchov is very strong in ITTs. As strong as Wiggins though? Where does he gain time? When was the last time Menchov attacked in the mountains and put time into the top GC riders in a GT? Can anyone see him dropping both Evans and Wiggins? He's looking very good for a podium spot.

Zubeldia - hmm. I don't see where he puts time into any of the top 4, let alone keeps up. He's had a good start though, gotta give him that.

Froome - Very strong. His flat in stage 1 cost him time. If Wiggins blows or crashes out, he'll be there. We need more evidence he can stay with the best in the ITTs though.

That's enough. Does anyone further down have a realistic chance of catching the top 4?

 

[SafeBet]

I wouldn't count JVDB out just yet. He climbed very good today, although it must be said he attacked only 1km from the top. Plus he was ok in the long ITT during the Dauphine.
Top4 is not impossible.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I wouldn't count JVDB out just yet. He climbed very good today, although it must be said he attacked only 1km from the top. Plus he was ok in the long ITT during the Dauphine.
Top4 is not impossible.

Well, that's 1km more than the other GC favorites combined so far

 

[SafeBet]

Well, that's 1km more than the other GC favorites combined so far

True that

 

[will10]

JVB could get on the podium. But at the moment I think it will be Cadel, Wiggins and Froome. Not sure on the order just yet, let's see Froome in vroom mode tomorrow and assess then.

 

[patrick767]

JVB could get on the podium. But at the moment I think it will be Cadel, Wiggins and Froome. Not sure on the order just yet, let's see Froome in vroom mode tomorrow and assess then.

Who falters to get JVB there? He has to be better than okay in the ITTs to avoid losing time to Evans and Wiggins or to even put time into Menchov. That leaves the high mountains. He's got to drop them. Froome is a somewhat unknown quantity in the ITT with just last year's Vuelta as a stand out performance, but we know he's a hell of a climber.

tomorrow may clear things up, of course.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Who falters to get JVB there? He has to be better than okay in the ITTs to avoid losing time to Evans and Wiggins or to even put time into Menchov. That leaves the high mountains. He's got to drop them. Froome is a somewhat unknown quantity in the ITT with just last year's Vuelta as a stand out performance, but we know he's a hell of a climber.

tomorrow may clear things up, of course.

Well, he said "could".

Also, nobody needs to falter per se. Van den Broeck, Gesink, Mollema, Sanchez, Brajkovic, Schleck, Leipheimer etc etc... have all lost time or are knocked out due to bad luck. Menchov doesn't seem very comfortable, Froome was struggling sunday (this isn't the Vuelta, let's see what this brings after 3 weeks of work) and Zubeldia & Monfort aren't the ones to keep him down. So who knows. It's certainly not likely, but he's only 1.50 behind Nibali.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Well, he said "could".

Also, nobody needs to falter per se. Van den Broeck, Gesink, Mollema, Sanchez, Brajkovic, Schleck, Leipheimer etc etc... have all lost time or are knocked out due to bad luck. Menchov doesn't seem very comfortable, Froome was struggling sunday (this isn't the Vuelta, let's see what this brings after 3 weeks of work) and Zubeldia & Monfort aren't the ones to keep him down. So who knows. It's certainly not likely, but he's only 1.50 behind Nibali.

And we've seen less than convincing 3rd weeks from Nibali in the Giro. (not the vuelta where he won, but the competition was different)

Still I think Nibali/Froome will podium sooner than JvdB.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

And we've seen less than convincing 3rd weeks from Nibali in the Giro. (not the vuelta where he won, but the competition was different)

Still I think Nibali/Froome will podium sooner than JvdB.

Given the current circumstances, i would think so too. We'll never know how it would have panned out without the mechanical. But like i said, other riders can make the same argument.