Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[dlwssonic]

The only credible GT riders of that type are Wiggins, Menchov, Leipheimer, Kloeden. 2/4 I'll take and none are French or Spanish. My point about the TT based teams stands. I forgot RSNT.

thats true most english speaking teams are like that.
BMC to a lesser extent.
Isn't evans somewhat similiar to the type of GT riders you are talking about.

 

[Flamin]

He can just follow the wheels of the best climbers or set a very hard pace to gain time.

Like who? Contador and Andy absent, i can't see anyone putting minutes into wiggo on the climbs. So yeah, evans has to attack, badly. Unless wiggo cracks himself and loses 5 minutes.

Yup evans has been incredibly relaxed which is a great sign for him.
I'm not sure if the worlds is the biggest one day race though.

it is

 

[TheEnoculator]

Menchov hasn't shown his cards yet this year, and he never shows them until when it really matters. He might take Wiggins and Evans by surprise.

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/12159/Menchov-reiterates-goal-to-win-Tour-de-France.aspx

 

[taiwan]

thats true most english speaking teams are like that.
BMC to a lesser extent.
Isn't evans somewhat similiar to the type of GT riders you are talking about.

I'm sure he was always talked about in those terms because in eg 2008 he was one of the best TTists in the GC. When you look at him now though he's one of the most complete riders if not the most in Valverde's absence.

 

[dlwssonic]

Like who? Contador and Andy absent, i can't see anyone putting minutes into wiggo on the climbs. So yeah, evans has to attack, badly. Unless wiggo cracks himself and loses 5 minutes.



it is

I can see gesink, sanchez or frank attacking. They are pretty damn good climbers and can put time into wiggins. So it would be great if they do attack as evans can just follow them. Yeah the loss of andy is a blow. He could have animated the race.

 

[dlwssonic]

I'm sure he was always talked about in those terms because in eg 2008 he was one of the best TTists in the GC. When you look at him now though he's one of the most complete riders if not the most in Valverde's absence.

He still is
Yeah he surely has become a more attacking rider since then. And now he can gain time at other areas other than TT.
Yeah he is a pretty damn good all rounder, which really is a boost for him in this tour.
He can climb the mountains, the hills, TT, descends, has a good sprint.
Maybe the only thing he lacks is explosiveness.

 

[Aguirre]

I'm wondering what Valverde should do to win this TdF

 

[norwegian]

Voted for Frank S. More by heart than head. Big money would have been on Evans/Wiggins.

 

[JibberJim]

I actually think A. Schleck not being at the tour as weakened Wiggins's chance of winning, the attacks Andy would've put in would've forced the climbs to be ridden harder, which would've forced Wiggins onto riding the climbs himself, or just with Froome, the pace they set riding would've likely dropped everyone who had any hope of staying close other than Evans and pure climbers. Without Andy there though, I think the climbs won't need to be ridden as hard to deter attacks and Sky will go more conservative. And then a single screw up on a stage will let an outsider or Evans in. With Andy, none of the outsiders would've stayed close enough to UK postal. Without the attacks, I think they might.

 

[Froome19]

I actually think A. Schleck not being at the tour as weakened Wiggins's chance of winning, the attacks Andy would've put in would've forced the climbs to be ridden harder, which would've forced Wiggins onto riding the climbs himself, or just with Froome, the pace they set riding would've likely dropped everyone who had any hope of staying close other than Evans and pure climbers. Without Andy there though, I think the climbs won't need to be ridden as hard to deter attacks and Sky will go more conservative. And then a single screw up on a stage will let an outsider or Evans in. With Andy, none of the outsiders would've stayed close enough to UK postal. Without the attacks, I think they might.

Indeed that is a logical supposition if you believe that Wiggins is a truly strong climber (as I believe) and will be able to hold his own against Evans and co. easily,.....
Of course i would disagree that Sky dont ride as high tempo as otherwise would be on climbs. The Vuelta last year shows they will keep the pace very high to limit attacks and they will continue to work at a steady high tempo constantly to drop as many people as possible they were constantly on the front on the climbs, Froome and Wiggins, and they continually kept the pace high even when they were on the brink such as on Angliru.

Of course that high, high tempo will primarily only be on stages 11 and 17 as there is not point on exhausting your resources so extensively unless of course the other favorites attack.

 

[airstream]

Of course that high, high tempo will primarily only be on stages 11 and 17 as there is not point on exhausting your resources so extensively unless of course the other favorites attack.

And who will be an initiator of high tempo? In terms of action, our main grief is that it's very likely the race to be splitted into 2 parts very often: the race for the stage and the race between big guns "who will lull the opponents more". I expect if Cobo or Rolland or Frank attack on La Toussuire, the Wiggins band even won't think of budging. This will be very dull.

 

[Froome19]

And who will be an initiator of high tempo? In terms of action, our main grief is that it's very likely the race to be splitted into 2 parts very often: the race for the stage and the race between big guns "who will lull the opponents more". I expect if Cobo or Rolland or Frank attack on La Toussuire, the Wiggins band even won't think of budging. This will be very dull.

Sky....

The Wiggins band wont be content to just sit around. It is the day after the TT, where they would all have been creamed by Wiggins and they will have to attack, Sky know that and they will be forced to keep the pace high to neutralise and prevent any attacks.

 

[theyoungest]

Sky....

The Wiggins band wont be content to just sit around. It is the day after the TT, where they would all have been creamed by Wiggins and they will have to attack, Sky know that and they will be forced to keep the pace high to neutralise and prevent any attacks.

They're not a bunch of robots... you expect a guy like Porte to be able to control Fränk Schleck (if he's on form)? That would be quite a step forward from what he's done so far in his career.

 

[dlwssonic]

They're not a bunch of robots... you expect a guy like Porte to be able to control Fränk Schleck (if he's on form)? That would be quite a step forward from what he's done so far in his career.

Exactly at the end of the day the only domestique left for wiggins will be froome.
Rogers and Porte are so overrated.
Dauphine doesn't mean anything when weening or kiriyienka is still left.

 

[Froome19]

They're not a bunch of robots... you expect a guy like Porte to be able to control Fränk Schleck (if he's on form)? That would be quite a step forward from what he's done so far in his career.

Nope but I expect porte to control him reasonably well but not totally, yet the thing is that Porte will work hard keeping the high pace and then will be off to the Grupetto. (something Frank cant do)

Froome on the other hand I do expect to control someone like Frank Schleck.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

They're not a bunch of robots... you expect a guy like Porte to be able to control Fränk Schleck (if he's on form)? That would be quite a step forward from what he's done so far in his career.

Depends what job they're asked to do, and on conditions.

Drafting wattage savings are the difference between Frank Schleck and the 40th best climber in the world on most Tour climbs. If Porte is trying to give a 10 minute max effort whilst Frank is at the beginning of a 30 minute effort, I don't think he has the class to get all that far down the road, and I do think he will tire out.

Do keep reminding yourself this is Frank we're talking about.

 

[theyoungest]

Do keep reminding yourself this is Frank we're talking about.

Yes, but it's also Richie Porte we're discussing here. Who was a domestique for Contador in last year's Tour. Did you see him? I didn't.

The Tour isn't like any other race. And it certainly isn't the Dauphiné.

 

[Froome19]

Yes, but it's also Richie Porte we're discussing here. Who was a domestique for Contador in last year's Tour. Did you see him? I didn't.
.

He wasnt seen because he was made to be at the front for most of the Giro

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Yes, but it's also Richie Porte we're discussing here. Who was a domestique for Contador in last year's Tour. Did you see him? I didn't.

The Tour isn't like any other race. And it certainly isn't the Dauphiné.

Well, it's rather fortunate Mr Porte is the 3rd/4th climber for Sky.

There are no supersonic climbers in this race. I just don't believe there is anyone sufficiently superior to the other contendors to jump away, ride in the wind on their own the whole climb, and beat the others who take a tow in a solidly paced bunch and then turn the taps on nearer the end.

The final 5 or 6km is clearly a different matter, and it will be every man for himself. But I don't see anyone able to go away earlier and make it work unless something odd happens.

 

[Angliru]

I'm wondering what Valverde should do to win this TdF

Put in an above average performance in the TT's, drop Wiggins at every opportunity in the mountains and team up with Samu, Nibali and Evans on the descents to make Wiggins sweat. It'd be quite interesting if Valverde were to cruise into Paris in yellow. There'd be a bit of tension there.

 

[Pentacycle]

Put in an above average performance in the TT's, drop Wiggins at every opportunity in the mountains and team up with Samu, Nibali and Evans on the descents to make Wiggins sweat. It'd be quite interesting if Valverde were to cruise into Paris in yellow. There'd be a bit of tension there.

He said at Paris-Nice he was already very tired after just 1 week of racing, so I think it's impossible to put in the consistent 3-week performance he needs to win. I really don't understand people voted for him to bring home the yellow jersey, but he'll definitely be a factor in the mountains and hills. On the other hand, after having done a full season's racing again(after suspension) next year's Tour could be his. I've really missed the guy entertaining the Tour the last 3 years.

 

[Fergoose]

Of course BMC is not as strong in the mountains. But very few contenders will have any domestiques left when the real action starts anyway.
Yes the loss of andy might affect cadel.
There is still frank, gesink, sanchez. They are all attacking riders who can climb very well.

Apologies, I meant primarily team support in the mountains and didn't make that clear. Given that only ten riders can occupy the first ten spots in a peloton, I don't buy the logic about teams protecting riders on flat stages (as last years team leader crash victims will attest). But that is by the by.

F. Schleck & Gesink will both be non-factors for 1st place on GC before the mountains arrive (heck, non & factor could be Gesink's middle names in July). Neither have shown any sign of being as dangerous uphill as a A. Schleck, certainly not on consecutive stages. I doubt Sky are overly concerned about either the need to, or the difficulty in, marking their moves.

Sanchez is different but ageing - I'd love to see him do a competitive ITT, gain time on some demon descents on the two downhill finishes and tear the field on the uphill finishes. I don't see all that happening though and even if it did, would it be enough to open the door for Evans?

Evans best chance is teaming up with Nibali & Sanchez on the descents. He could make up enough there.

And 27 year old Fuglsang not selected for a two ITT tour? Answers on a postcard. I'll give Sanchez fifth then, so gracious am I.

 

[theyoungest]

F. Schleck & Gesink will both be non-factors for 1st place on GC before the mountains arrive (heck, non & factor could be Gesink's middle names in July). Neither have shown any sign of being as dangerous uphill as a A. Schleck, certainly not on consecutive stages. I doubt Sky are overly concerned about either the need to, or the difficulty in, marking their moves.

Lol, could you maybe be a Sky fanboy? Gesink (aka "The Non-Factor") has done two Tours, crashed out of another, and finished 5th once. Wiggins has done 4 Tours, crashed out of another, and finished 4th once.

So what are we to call Wiggins? The Zero-Factor?

 

[guncha]

Cadel. He is natural favorite because in absence of AC and AS there are no other rider who has won TDF. The route is good for Cadel - more ITT, less mountain stages than in 2011. However, such type of route is good news for Wiggins. But ... if in form Cadel won't lose more than 2 min to Wiggins in ITTs and mountains are difficult enough to compensate it.

 

[guncha]

Anyway most years there are only 3 MTFs.
Last year was an abnormality.

It is 50/50 in last 10 years..

TDF 03 - 3 MTFs
TDF 04 - 4 MTFs, incl. Alpe d'Huez ITT
TDF 05 - 4 MTFs, incl. Mende
TDF 06 - 3 MTFs
TDF 07 - 3 MTFs
TDF 08 - 4 MTFs, incl. Super Besse
TDF 09 - 3 MTFs
TDF 10 - 4 MTFs, incl. Mende
TDF 11 - 4 MTFs
TDF 12 - 3 MTFs, incl. Planche

TDF 12 is abnormality because it has just two MTFs in high mountains while other nine tours have at least three MTFs in high mountains...