Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[gustienordic]

Lol, could you maybe be a Sky fanboy? Gesink (aka "The Non-Factor") has done two Tours, crashed out of another, and finished 5th once. Wiggins has done 4 Tours, crashed out of another, and finished 4th once.

So what are we to call Wiggins? The Zero-Factor?

Lol +1!
(10 char)

 

[airstream]

3 including Planche and Peyragudes

 

[Rvizzle]

I have voted for Wiggins. As much as I am a fan of British cycling and would love to see him in the centre of the podium, I do agree that the factors involved could lead to a dull race (from Sky), with the possibility of very few days in yellow. Cadel only wore yellow for one day last year.

This does not mean that there will be no attacks, just because Wiggo doesn't attack. On the contrary, I think with the mountain layout as it is, the KOM will be a seriously tight affair.

Although I've made my comments above, I'd absolutely love to see Nibali win the GC. Such a classy rider to watch and just gives it everything. On a soggy day in the mountains, who wouldn't love to see him carve up the field on the descent.

1. Wiggo
2. Cuddles.
3. Froome.
4. Leipheimer
5. Nibali

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Well, i'm a *****. I still haven't cast my vote...

And while all signs point to Wiggins, there are enough things to consider. He is inexperienced and has to cope with all the pressure (remember Evans losing "his" TDF against Sastre). Can he keep his form? Won't he make the mistake of going after the wrong guy at the wrong time and face the consequences later on? With Andy and Alberto out of the way, won't guys like Gesink, Samu, JvdB, Frank, ... feel like they might be the ones that can drop the competition uphill (especially if Gesink & JvdB's ITT prove to have improved a lot, they might feel more confident and feel the urge to take their shot). I see Cadel sitting in Wiggins's wheel, to see if and how he reacts to attacks by those guys, and if Wiggins hesitates, make the jump and try to bridge the gap solo.

One thing's for sure, this is Wiggins's TDF to lose.

lol @ sencorship of the word puss... y

 

[Fergoose]

Lol, could you maybe be a Sky fanboy? Gesink (aka "The Non-Factor") has done two Tours, crashed out of another, and finished 5th once. Wiggins has done 4 Tours, crashed out of another, and finished 4th once.

So what are we to call Wiggins? The Zero-Factor?

Actually, since you ask, I've always really disliked Sky as an organisation and now as a team after a re-signing they made after the Vuelta. What that's got to do with pondering who will win the tour is anyone's guess.

Wiggins isn't turning up for a "prestigious" top five finish and only just missed out on a podium (which he may be awarded in the next year). Make it the most time trial friendly Tour I can remember, factor in Wiggins' ability to survive in a far more hostile environment in the 2011 Vuelta and that Sky are now acting like a respectable professional outfit while their rivals behave like they've had a lobotomy. I think the evidence justifies the vote in this thread.

If you think Gesink will have a sizeable impact on this years race then fair enough. I'm unclear what you could be basing that on (other than the strength in depth of Rabo climbers, all of whom will essentially be unable to contest the top step of the podium before they reach the mountains). I'd love to hear your informed opinion on the matter though about how Gesink will be the name on everyone's lips after 100+ kms of time trial.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Do you have any idea of Gesink's TT results this year?

Just a question

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Do you have any idea of Gesink's TT results this year?

Just a question

Well, i'm wondering myself. His TDS ITT was much better than i anticipated... but on the other hand, the ITT competition wasn't stellar, and the stage was shorter and more hilly, which would suit him better i suppose than what's in store in the TDF. I don't know if that gives us much of a reference.

Did he do many long flat ITT's this year?

 

[Pentacycle]

He is inexperienced and has to cope with all the pressure (remember Evans losing "his" TDF against Sastre). Can he keep his form? Won't he make the mistake of going after the wrong guy at the wrong time and face the consequences later on?

This might become another Tour where a climber can gain a lot of time by attacking from far out, while nobody dares to follow him. Sky will then control the peloton, believing Wiggins will smoke the final TT, just like Evans did with Sastre. If Wiggins really wants to win this, he´ll have to do the work himself sometimes, instead of hiding behind a good team, or a supposedly good TT(his 2009 TT wasn't really that great) where he'll be under immense pressure. A rider who considers himself a possible Tour winner should always try to be among the best climbers. 2008 is a very good example, Evans just wasn't the best climber, there, so he lost. Don't forget Sastre won a Tour with 80kms against the clock. I still believe in the chances of climbers, but statistically Wiggins is the safest bet.

 

[Fergoose]

Do you have any idea of Gesink's TT results this year?

Just a question

Yeah yeah, so he managed to not lose 5+ minutes in some fringe contest in another continent!

Meet me here after Stage 9, and bring an omellete for my face, if you dare!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

This might become another Tour where a climber can gain a lot of time by attacking from far out, while nobody dares to follow him. Sky will then control the peloton, believing Wiggins will smoke the final TT, just like Evans did with Sastre. If Wiggins really wants to win this, he´ll have to do the work himself sometimes, instead of hiding behind a good team, or a supposedly good TT(his 2009 TT wasn't really that great) where he'll be under immense pressure. A rider who considers himself a possible Tour winner should always try to be among the best climbers. 2008 is a very good example, Evans just wasn't the best climber, there, so he lost. Don't forget Sastre won a Tour with 80kms against the clock. I still believe in the chances of climbers, but statistically Wiggins is the safest bet.

That's exactly what i meant. Everybody expected Evans to take that TDF, like candy from a baby... and he failed. This could just as well happen to Wiggins, and still the odds are in his favor.

 

[Potomac]

Froome for me.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

TDF 12 is abnormality because it has just two MTFs in high mountains while other nine tours have at least three MTFs in high mountains...

stage 16 is as good as a MTF.
Actually, the non-MTF mountain stages are all in all better then previous years.

I still think people under-estimating the difficulty of the route (lol at people thinking porte, rogers etc are gonna be in cruise control ). Some of the multi-climb stages are nicely poised imo.

 

[karlboss]

I think the best way to deal with Sky is to do what Cunego did for Scarponi at the giro.
Cunego getting in breaks meant although not really a chance at the overall, the teams shooting for the overall (liquigas) had watch his breaks closely. There are loads of dangerous teams who should be thinking about this...everyone except maybe Evans.
On a course with so few opportunities. This must be a tactic to be considered, in the first place to just make the race day in day out hard for Sky. Second as a one day tactic to take time. For example, Place Horner in a break and have him race with whoever else made it into that break, and Sky have to chase, only BMC, Katusha will help maybe.
This is why the Wiggins/Sky performance at the Dauphine might be detrimental, they've said "here we are, attack us". On the other hand it was also "attack us and we will crush you". I hope someone steps up.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I think the best way to deal with Sky is to do what Cunego did for Scarponi at the giro.
Cunego getting in breaks meant although not really a chance at the overall, the teams shooting for the overall (liquigas) had watch his breaks closely. There are loads of dangerous teams who should be thinking about this...everyone except maybe Evans.
On a course with so few opportunities. This must be a tactic to be considered, in the first place to just make the race day in day out hard for Sky. Second as a one day tactic to take time. For example, Place Horner in a break and have him race with whoever else made it into that break, and Sky have to chase, only BMC, Katusha will help maybe.
This is why the Wiggins/Sky performance at the Dauphine might be detrimental, they've said "here we are, attack us". On the other hand it was also "attack us and we will crush you". I hope someone steps up.

another thing they should do yes.
Horner, Vanendert, Mollema, Velits etc.

Still I think some of the stages are way too tough for a team to maintain control over the whole stage. Youngest is 100% correct imo, the tour is a different ball game; people assuming sky are gonna 'easily' high tempo all tour wrong are going to be in for a shock.

 

[cineteq]

I still think people under-estimating the difficulty of the route (lol at people thinking porte, rogers etc are gonna be in cruise control ). Some of the multi-climb stages are nicely poised imo.

+1 Take that Sky fanboys!
This is a long and winding race full of unexpected variables. These fanboys are dreaming of Sky having the same train as they did at the Dauphiné when everybody but them was in training mode. They will find out sooner or later that Sky will end up as a train...wrecked.

Wiggo fans wake up and smell the coffee

 

[FabulousCandelabra]

Why is Kloden not on this list?? He will surprise everyone !

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

+1 Take that Sky fanboys!
This is a long and winding race full of unexpected variables. These fanboys are dreaming of Sky having the same train as they did at the Dauphiné when everybody but them was in training mode. They will find out sooner or later that Sky will end up as a train...wrecked.

Wiggo fans wake up and smell the coffee

Who are all these Sky/Wiggins fanboys that people keep ranting about? From what I have read they are few and far between. Most of the people who seem to think he will win are people that flat out dislike him.

Seems to me that people are creating a group of people just to justify their dislike against them and, possibly, Wiggins.

 

[Bala Verde]

So how many minutes do guys like schleck, gesink, vdb2, Nibali, Sanchez need to take on guys like wiggins, Evans, and menchov in the mountains in order to balance 90-100 km itt? 4;5;6 minutes?

Assuming no one crashes, rides itts under the same weather conditions (I hope it rains between some contenders during an itt haha lol), and they are all on form.

 

[TheEnoculator]

Why do some people take Froome to win it all? Just to be different from others? Yeah he had a great Vuelta. But this is the Tour. This is about Wiggins, not Froome. Froome is there to serve Wiggins. Wiggins is not winning all those stage races just to lose to his own domestique in the biggest race of the year. Froome was a nice surprise for Sky last year. But with this Tour fitting Wiggins to a T, it'll ALL be about Wiggins. Unless Wiggins loses 10 minutes in the mountains, which won't happen if everything goes according to plan, Sky will NEVER switch to Froome.

Jesus.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I suspect menchov will need time also.
Maybe roughly...

Wiggo
Evans +1
Menchov +2
Samu, Gesink, VDB, Liephiemer, TD +3
Nibbles +4
schleck, Valverde +5

Why do some people take Froome to win it all? Just to be different from others? Yeah he had a great Vuelta. But this is the Tour. This is about Wiggins, not Froome. Froome is there to serve Wiggins. Wiggins is not going to win all those stage races just to lose to his own domestique in the biggest race of the year. Froome was a nice surprise for Sky last year. But with this Tour fitting Wiggins to a T, it'll ALL be about Wiggins. Unless Wiggins loses 10 minutes in the mountains, which won't happen if everything goes according to plan, Sky will never switch to Froome.

Jesus.

yeh i dont get the predictions either. I've seeon some people predict both on the podium, this is a gross overstatement.

 

[ElChingon]

So how many minutes do guys like schleck, gesink, vdb2, Nibali, Sanchez need to take on guys like wiggins, Evans, and menchov in the mountains in order to balance 90-100 km itt? 4;5;6 minutes?

Assuming no one crashes, rides itts under the same weather conditions (I hope it rains between some contenders during an itt haha lol), and they are all on form.

To be on the safe side, I'm thinking 30 seconds for the Prologue, then 2.5 minutes for the 38 K TT, and 3.5 for the 52 K TT, so 7.5 minutes total.

Seems like a lot to ask.

 

[auscyclefan94]

leipheimer. don't like the way the guy rides, but was starting to come into his form by attacking at the end of TdS, is very good in ITT and is smart enough to suck wheels for all but around 500 meters. Descents or USADA collateral damage could do him in. Also has had a good long time off, so will likely be fresh.

Ryder will be far too tired from the Giro. Frank will run into a truck going backwards, Wiggo will hopefully fail. Menchov and Nibabli don't seen to have it anymore. Cadel got his luck last year. Gesink doesn't seem to have form yet. UCI won't let Valverde win.

Cadel got his luck last year? I personally think that losing many of the GC favourites earlier made it harder for Cadel to win meaning he couldn't rely on others to chase. He also has a puncture on the Galibier where he had to chase pretty much on his own.

 

[karlboss]

I suspect menchov will need time also.
Maybe roughly...

Wiggo
Evans +1
Menchov +2
Samu, Gesink, VDB, Liephiemer, TD +3
Nibbles +4
schleck, Valverde +5

I'd say Menchov 0-1.
If he's getting it done it'll be in the TT.

 

[theyoungest]

If you think Gesink will have a sizeable impact on this years race then fair enough. I'm unclear what you could be basing that on (other than the strength in depth of Rabo climbers, all of whom will essentially be unable to contest the top step of the podium before they reach the mountains). I'd love to hear your informed opinion on the matter though about how Gesink will be the name on everyone's lips after 100+ kms of time trial.

Actually, I don't think the TT is the problem. I even think a long, flattish TT is currently better for him than a hilly one. We saw that in Suisse. On the final, flat 10 kilometers he gained 30+ seconds on most of his GC rivals (he was just 3 sec slower there than Cancellara!)

It's the climbs I'm a bit more worried about.

Why do some people take Froome to win it all? Just to be different from others? Yeah he had a great Vuelta. But this is the Tour. This is about Wiggins, not Froome. Froome is there to serve Wiggins. Wiggins is not winning all those stage races just to lose to his own domestique in the biggest race of the year. Froome was a nice surprise for Sky last year. But with this Tour fitting Wiggins to a T, it'll ALL be about Wiggins. Unless Wiggins loses 10 minutes in the mountains, which won't happen if everything goes according to plan, Sky will NEVER switch to Froome.

Jesus.

The Vuelta was also about Wiggins, and not about Froome. The latter was even a domestique until way into the final week. But the plan doesn't always work out, over three weeks Froome was simply the better rider. Maybe he's a better GT rider than Wiggo, who knows.

 

[Galic Ho]

Depends what job they're asked to do, and on conditions.

Drafting wattage savings are the difference between Frank Schleck and the 40th best climber in the world on most Tour climbs. If Porte is trying to give a 10 minute max effort whilst Frank is at the beginning of a 30 minute effort, I don't think he has the class to get all that far down the road, and I do think he will tire out.

Do keep reminding yourself this is Frank we're talking about.

The guy who has multiple top 10 finishes in the Tour and came what was it last year? Third. Yeah, nice try. Sick and tired of you Sky trolls. Do everyone a favour, phone the team up and get your groupy number so we don't have to hear the BS. Sky sure could do with the sloppy favours.

Where did Frank finish, after a bad chrono, in 2009, Wiggins best Tour result? 3 seconds back. Short memory hey? Nah, just fanboy love.

Drafting wattages? WTF are you raving on about. 40TH!!! Man, just insult the Schleck's some more why don't you. Rabid nutcase fanboy love sprouting from you...good job.

Whoever is at the front will be a domestique. That's always a given. RSNT and every team the Schleck's have been on have historically always had the strongest or second strongest climbing domestique, who set the hardest pace on the big HC climbs to break the GC riders up or put them on the limit. Every GC rider has to keep pace. Every one. You still work moron, you don't get a freebie FFS. When the Sorensens, Novarro and Hernandez smacked everyone in 2010, only two GC riders were left. They put out the hardest climbing pace, then the big guns attacked. Porte and Rogers are not those type of domestique guys. They will drop none of the big GC riders. None of them in the third week. They won't be there to set pace as evidenced by their recent GT climbing history when other domestiques put the wattages down.

So it's all up to Froome. Who will arguably be stronger than Wiggins on certain climbs. Brad's free rapid spinning climbing is perpetual retardation in motion, he does it because he cannot push even a slightly bigger gear. Frank does all the time. So does Andy. It's how they attack. Match their cadence on a different cog. Wiggins climbing style is severely limited and showcases what can go wrong. When they attack, he'll struggle to follow.

So what does a domestique do? Set a high pace. But every GC rider still has to match it. Drafting negation is not 30% on a climb. Much lower than flats. Try 10% as a generous amount. It's pedigree and form that make the difference. The attacks have always come after the HARDEST wattages have shed riders. Sky have never made their domestiques do that in the third week. Never. They've got to do that and hope Wiggins doesn't crack first. Which he historically has done. Troll on fanboy.