Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[dlwssonic]

Oh I see.

Are you Belgian by chance?

He is, a huge gilbert fan.

 

[ElChingon]

Wooooo Hooooo! New poll, I just hope we don't need a 3.0

Hummm, more realistic poll choices now. I'm going for the FU vote.

Who's idea for a new poll anyway?

 

[taiwan]

VDB hasn't seriously raced a race in top form since 2010.

Exactly. IMO he's being given a free pass by many after having one really good GT. Menchov has been invisible in recent times also, but he's a multiple GT winner. VBD is an up and comer. I'd even stick my neck out to say the same about Wiggins.

 

[theyoungest]

VDB hasn't seriously raced a race in top form since 2010.

Yes, this makes him a favourite for the Tour podium

Exactly. IMO he's being given a free pass by many after having one really good GT. Menchov has been invisible in recent times also, but he's a multiple GT winner. VBD is an up and comer. I'd even stick my neck out to say the same about Wiggins.

I think you use the same argument as Panda Claws, to argue the exact opposite...

 

[Panda Claws]

People just seem to think that VDB is still at the same level as he was in 2010, when he was 5th while he probably (as we already saw in his ITT) has improved a lot.

In a year where 2 of the top favorites aren't participating would a podium really be that impossible?

 

[theyoungest]

People just seem to think that VDB is still at the same level as he was in 2010, when he was 5th while he probably (as we already saw in his ITT) has improved a lot.

In a year where 2 of the top favorites aren't participating would a podium really be that impossible?

Yes, his ITT has definitely improved. But those few semi-climbs we saw him on in last year's Tour tell me nothing about his climbing. To me, his weakness is the long climbs.

 

[cineteq]

People just seem to think that VDB is still at the same level as he was in 2010, when he was 5th while he probably (as we already saw in his ITT) has improved a lot.

Yup, that makes him a 3 star favorite.

In a year where 2 of the top favorites aren't participating would a podium really be that impossible?

I can count only one: Contador, I have no idea who the other might be

 

[Panda Claws]

Yes, his ITT has definitely improved. But those few semi-climbs we saw him on in last year's Tour tell me nothing about his climbing. To me, his weakness is the long climbs.

But he is still pretty young it is generally assumed that cyclists improve between their 27 and 29 years.

 

[Panda Claws]

Yup, that makes him a 3 star favorite.

I can count only one: Contador, I have no idea who the other might be

The guy that got 2nd 3 years in a row, don't act as if you don't know who he is. He might not have been a favorite judging by 2012 only but it is still one less contender from 2010, isn't it?

 

[LaFlorecita]

But he is still pretty young it is generally assumed that cyclists improve between their 27 and 29 years.

How old is he? 29? He won't have improved a lot.

 

[theyoungest]

But he is still pretty young it is generally assumed that cyclists improve between their 27 and 29 years.

The definition of "young" in sports doesn't include someone who's 29 years old, I don't think. Certainly not in a time when 20-year-old whippersnappers are dominating the sport

 

[vcampbell]

People just seem to think that VDB is still at the same level as he was in 2010, when he was 5th while he probably (as we already saw in his ITT) has improved a lot.

In a year where 2 of the top favorites aren't participating would a podium really be that impossible?

You can say anything. There are some riders who has no chance before a race because some people write them down, and then comes a Giro 2012 and a poor Hesjedal wins. This is the only reason I will love to watch the Tour, to read every day, that "he will crack there and there", and "no chance", and "it's too hard for him", etc...

 

[Panda Claws]

Seriously, this is not that hard.

VDB last raced a race in top form in 2010. He was 27 back then.

Now, he is 29 and it is thus very likely that he improved between 27-29.

 

[dlwssonic]

You can say anything. There are some riders who has no chance before a race because some people write them down, and then comes a Giro 2012 and a poor Hesjedal wins. This is the only reason I will love to watch the Tour, to read every day, that "he will crack there and there", and "no chance", and "it's too hard for him", etc...

Are you seriously talking about wiggins again??

 

[theyoungest]

Seriously, this is not that hard.

VDB last raced a race in top form in 2010. He was 27 back then.

Now, he is 29 and it is thus very likely that he improved between 27-29.

Of course, but he has been a pro for 9 years, how much room for improvement is there really? I mean, he's not a Lieuwe Westra who decided recently that he wanted to be a climber.

 

[taiwan]

Seriously, this is not that hard.

VDB last raced a race in top form in 2010. He was 27 back then.

Now, he is 29 and it is thus very likely that he improved between 27-29.

a) Doesn't really work like that. You only be stretching that logic a little to say he got 4/5th in '10 --> in '11 he would have podiumed --> in '12 he's going to win.

b) Kreuziger has been good but hasn't improved in the last years, it's generally considered.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Seriously, this is not that hard.

VDB last raced a race in top form in 2010. He was 27 back then.

Now, he is 29 and it is thus very likely that he improved between 27-29.

Yes. He might have improved. But not that much.

 

[Angliru]

Evans will lose less than a minute to Wiggins in the TTs, but gain more than 2 minutes on decents and MTFs. Sanchez will gain a little more than 2 minutes on the MTFs and Decents, will lose 3 in the TTs, but will gain more than 3 attacking on one of the multiple cimbing days.
Sanchez by less than a minute over Evans, who finishes just over a minute up on Wiggins.

I hope and pray that you're right!

 

[Fergoose]

Even with only one ITT I'd be ruling out a climber from this tour, sadly. I appreciate it's no longer the anniversary of the great mountain passes but surely a race where, in any given year, different styles can compete for overall victory would be favourable? I'm actually almost hoping the climbers forget about GC and focus on KotM (but it'll never happen, finishing 7th overall is just soooo much more coveted). Green Jersey could even top last year too and will be my main focus watching.

The lack of elite climber in top form hurts Evans. Sky won't have to respond to anyone but Evans & Menchov as they won't be considered a serious overall threat. They are strong enough to go uphill at a decent enough pace to ensure a VdB or Gessink won't gain enough time. So unless Wiggins has a really off day there is no need for panic.

Evans is great if the peloton shatters on a climb, but he can't instigate that himself. Sky can protect Wiggins almost infinitely better than BMC can shelter Evans (unless I've overlooked any great offseason grand-domestique acquisitions they've made). I think the euphemism "one for the pureists" could be appropriate here. Still took some time off though, so hope springs eternal somewhere deep in my subconscious!

1. Wiggins
2. Evans
3. Froome*
4. Nibali
5. Fuglsang**

*or Nibali if the road is melting or wet on stages with mountain descent finishes.
** assuming there is no clear team leader he has to break his back for.

 

[burning]

Seems to be Wiggo has the upper hand

 

[Panda Claws]

Look, I agree that VDB is not as good as an Evans or so, but this might be his chance.

Evans and Wiggins will probably beat him, but besides those nothing is certain.

 

[shinoda13]

Maxime Monfort.

 

[Froome19]

1. Wiggins
2. Evans
3. Froome*
4. Nibali
5. Fuglsang**
*or Nibali if the road is melting or wet on stages with mountain descent finishes.
** assuming there is no clear team leader he has to break his back for.

I get the feeling that wont happen

 

[Afrank]

Wiggins is by far the overall favorite. He has the form at the moment and all he really has to do is perform in the time trials, and let sky do the pace setting in the mountains to make sure the breaks don't gain too much time. Which is precisely the reason I don't want him to win. I just hope the winner is someone who actually attacks. Evans seems to be the only one who can attack and do well enough in the time trial to win the overall.

 

[jens_attacks]

Which is precisely the reason I don't want him to win. I just hope the winner is someone who actually attacks.

wiggo will attack.you heard it here first.