Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[Bala Verde]

To be on the safe side, I'm thinking 30 seconds for the Prologue, then 2.5 minutes for the 38 K TT, and 3.5 for the 52 K TT, so 7.5 minutes total.

Seems like a lot to ask.

It does.

The 2010 19th stage, ITT,

pan flat, 52K; Results:

1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Team Saxo Bank 1:00:56
2 Tony Martin (Ger) Team HTC - Columbia 0:00:17
3 Bert Grabsch (Ger) Team HTC - Columbia 0:01:48
4 Ignatas Konovalovas (Ltu) Cervelo Test Team 0:02:34
5 David Zabriskie (USA) Garmin - Transitions 0:03:00
6 Koos Moerenhout (Ned) Rabobank 0:03:03
7 Vasili Kiryienka (Blr) Caisse d'Epargne 0:03:10
8 Maarten Tjallingii (Ned) Rabobank 0:03:21
9 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team 0:03:33
10 Geraint Thomas (GBr) Sky Professional Cycling Team 0:03:38
11 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 0:03:51
[...]
35 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 0:05:43
[...]
40 Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0:05:51
41 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Team Radioshack 0:05:59
[...]
44 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:06:14
[...]
48 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 0:06:30
[...]
52 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Transitions 0:06:40
53 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:06:42
[...]
69 Christopher Horner (USA) Team Radioshack
[...]
71 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:07:10
[...]
79 Luis León Sánchez Gil (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0:07:18
[...]
82 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas-Doimo 0:07:25
[...]
109 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank 0:08:33

The #10 came in at almost 4m from the winner and ITT specialists.

Menchov and Wiggins were separated by only 20s, but the gap after them was between 2-4m to some other interesting names. (not saying that all those latecomers were giving 100%, or were in the best shape ever, or didn't have any accidents throughout the race or whatever).

#20 was at around 4:40 from the winner.

The 2011 ITT had more climbing, 42K

Results:

1 Tony Martin (Ger) HTC-Highroad 0:55:33
2 Cadel Evans (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:00:07
3 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank Sungard 0:01:06
4 Thomas De Gendt (Bel) Vacansoleil-DCM Pro Cycling Team 0:01:29
5 Richie Porte (Aus) Saxo Bank Sungard 0:01:30
6 Jean-Christophe Peraud (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:01:33
7 Samuel Sanchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi 0:01:37
8 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Leopard Trek 0:01:42
9 Peter Velits (Svk) HTC-Highroad 0:02:03
10 Rein Taaramae (Est) Cofidis, Le Credit En Ligne
11 Thomas Danielson (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:02:08
[...]
17 Andy Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:38
[...]
20 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Leopard Trek 0:02:41
[...]
25 Christian Vande Velde (USA) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:03:00
[...]
31 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Lampre - ISD 0:03:38
[...]
34 Ivan Basso (Ita) Liquigas-Cannondale 0:03:47
[...]
39 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:04:01
[...]
51 Rui Alberto Faria Da Costa (Por) Movistar Team 0:04:39
[...]
54 Jelle Vanendert (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:04:44
[...]
62 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Team Garmin-Cervelo 0:04:56
[...]
71 Luis Leon Sanchez Gil (Spa) Rabobank Cycling Team 0:05:16
[...]
78 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Team RadioShack 0:05:38
[...]
99 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Pro Team Astana 0:06:10

top 20 is around @ 2:40 behind the winner.

Could you extrapolate that, if you are a contender, you definitely need to be in the top 20 in both ITTs although you could actually still lose up to 6-7m?

If so, I wonder where they'll take it back, especially with the Giro in mind.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Thanks for this utterly depressing post bala

 

[roundabout]

I don't think it will be 6-7 minutes to Wiggins for a rider who finishes top 20 in both TTs. More like 5 tops.

But that's me being "optimistic".

 

[dlwssonic]

the first TT is hilly and technical that should evans and I believe he will limit his losses very well there.
The second TT is in the third week and that is where evans is at his best.

 

[Nick C.]

Wasn't there some extenuating circumstance on the 2010 TT so that all the late starters (except Menchov) had horrible times. Look at the gaps they're insane. Zabriske is 5th @ 3:00. I don't know that you can use that as a guide though it is better than nothing but only just.

 

[dlwssonic]

Wasn't there some extenuating circumstance on the 2010 TT so that all the late starters (except Menchov) had horrible times. Look at the gaps they're insane. Zabriske is 5th @ 3:00. I don't know that you can use that as a guide though it is better than nothing but only just.

yeah the late starters did have very bad conditions.

 

[cineteq]

Could you extrapolate that, if you are a contender, you definitely need to be in the top 20 in both ITTs although you could actually still lose up to 6-7m?

How's this TT relevant?

2.49pm: The wind is picking up on the course. Maxine Monfort has just crossed the line and says the breeze cost him about five minutes. The finish is tricky too, he adds, saying you have to get up and out of the saddle and deal with a few curves. His time for the day was 1h 5min 10sec, putting him in 12th.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/jul/24/tour-de-france-2010-stage-19

Historical data is overrated

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The ITT results of the past are irrelevant as this season showed that hte ITT of many guys improved. Like Nibali, Gesink, vandenbroeck etc

 

[will10]

The ITT results of the past are irrelevant as this season showed that hte ITT of many guys improved. Like Nibali, Gesink, vandenbroeck, Wiggins etc

characters

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think you are overrating Wiggins recuperation. His ITT aren't as strong after 3 weeks of racing. That's why I think only 1'30

Evans might actually have the stronger 2nd ITT

I think you're wrong, but that's what opinions are for. I do however find it interesting, that you don't seem to think Wiggins will make much of a dent in the longest ITT compared to other GC riders, yet you still pick him for the overall win. I think it's exactly in the long ITT that he has to make the difference. And 1.30 may very well not be enough. Let alone the fact that you think Evans might even do a better second ITT. Then why not pick Evans?

The problem is that the Suisse TT is a bad example. There was a big hill right from the start, which doesn't suit Gesink at all. He is really a flat TT'er who loves to ride the same gear for one hour. Monfort is more of a punchy rider, which explains why he climbed faster than Gesink. It's also very strange that the guy who has the best TT results of all Dutch riders doesn't ride the nationals . I'd hate to see Clement taking it, instead of Gesink showing the colors in the Tour. He'd take the title very easily imo. If Gesink recovers well in the first week, I could see him ending within a minute of Wiggins in the first TT.

I have no idea which Monfort you are talking about, but i was talking about MAXIME Monfort. You obviously have him mixed up with somebody else. And even then, Monfort has always been better at ITT's than Gesink, be it flat or hilly. You guys seem to invest too much hope in the fact that Gesink did a fast last flat section in a short ITT to conclude that he will have no problem with a long flat ITT compared to the big guns. This doesn't mean i think he hasn't improved by the way. But just like JvdB and others around that caliber, i think they can thank their lucky stars if they "only" lose about 2.30 in the long ITT.

 

[dlwssonic]

I think you're wrong, but that's what opinions are for. I do however find it interesting, that you don't seem to think Wiggins will make much of a dent in the longest ITT compared to other GC riders, yet you still pick him for the overall win. I think it's exactly in the long ITT that he has to make the difference. And 1.30 may very well not be enough. Let alone the fact that you think Evans might even do a better second ITT. Then why not pick Evans?





I have no idea what Monfort you are talking about, but i was talking about MAXIME Monfort. You obviously have him mixed up with somebody else.

Thats true if evans does better in the second TT than wiggins, I'm very sure evans will win.
Because the TT is one of the few areas where wiggins can gain time on evans.
And his time gain in the prologue and first TT won't be enough.

 

[Galic Ho]

It does.

The 2010 19th stage, ITT,

pan flat, 52K; Results:



The #10 came in at almost 4m from the winner and ITT specialists.

Menchov and Wiggins were separated by only 20s, but the gap after them was between 2-4m to some other interesting names. (not saying that all those latecomers were giving 100%, or were in the best shape ever, or didn't have any accidents throughout the race or whatever).

#20 was at around 4:40 from the winner.

The 2011 ITT had more climbing, 42K

Results:



top 20 is around @ 2:40 behind the winner.

Could you extrapolate that, if you are a contender, you definitely need to be in the top 20 in both ITTs although you could actually still lose up to 6-7m?

If so, I wonder where they'll take it back, especially with the Giro in mind.

Did anyone bother to put the top times into perspective? How was the weather for all the TOP 10 riders? It was horrible. Massive cross wind and rain if I remember along the back half of the course. Took minutes out of their times. At least two per rider, if not three. Menchov had he raced the same time as Martin, Cancellara and yes, Wiggins who was in the mid 20s, would have been close to one minute thirty seconds down on the fastest time, maybe even a minute. That's how much time the top 10 lost.

But by all means, lets compare apples and oranges and forget what really happened. Absolutely lopsided ITT. All that proved was that Menchov, by contrasts to the other top 10, was flying that afternoon. So when I go back a page, will I find people saying Wiggins was better than Menchov? Probably. Had they raced at the same time roughly, Wiggins would have been near AC's time.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think you're wrong, but that's what opinions are for. I do however find it interesting, that you don't seem to think Wiggins will make much of a dent in the longest ITT compared to other GC riders, yet you still pick him for the overall win. I think it's exactly in the long ITT that he has to make the difference. And 1.30 may very well not be enough. Let alone the fact that you think Evans might even do a better second ITT. Then why not pick Evans?





I have no idea which Monfort you are talking about, but i was talking about MAXIME Monfort. You obviously have him mixed up with somebody else. And even then, Monfort has always been better at ITT's than Gesink, be it flat or hilly. You guys seem to invest too much hope in the fact that Gesink did a fast last flat section in a short ITT to conclude that he will have no problem with a long flat ITT compared to the big guns. This doesn't mean i think he hasn't improved by the way. But just like JvdB and others around that caliber, i think they can thank their lucky stars if they "only" lose about 2.30 in the long ITT.

Not entirely true. Actually, I would say in hilly ITT's Gesink and Monfort are about even in quality. In flat ITT's ofcourse Monfort is better

Pais Vasco 2011, hilly, Monfort a whole 2 seconds for Monfort
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20073

Oman 2011, hilly ofcourse
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=19757

Pais Vasco 09, Gesink better in a hilly TT
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=10970

Olympics 2010, hilly TT, again Gesink better
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=8208

Pais Vasco 08, hilly Tt, Gesink 1 second better
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=7215

and there's tour l'avenir where Gesink was also 5 seconds slower than Monfort (the edition was won by Duenas in frnt of Gesink)

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Not entirely true. Actually, I would say in hilly ITT's Gesink and Monfort are about even in quality. In flat ITT's ofcourse Monfort is better

Pais Vasco 2011, hilly, Monfort a whole 2 seconds for Monfort
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20073

Oman 2011, hilly ofcourse
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=19757

Pais Vasco 09, Gesink better in a hilly TT
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=10970

Olympics 2010, hilly TT, again Gesink better
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=8208

Pais Vasco 08, hilly Tt, Gesink 1 second better
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=7215

and there's tour l'avenir where Gesink was also 5 seconds slower than Monfort (the edition was won by Duenas in frnt of Gesink)

Which actually further proves my point even and shows pentacycle is way off with his assessment.

But honestly, i hope you're right and i hope i'm wrong, because that would only make things more interesting.

Some of your examples are to be taken with a grain of salt though. Racing in februari isn't the same as racing in july etc...

 

[Bala Verde]

How's this TT relevant?

2.49pm: The wind is picking up on the course. Maxine Monfort has just crossed the line and says the breeze cost him about five minutes. The finish is tricky too, he adds, saying you have to get up and out of the saddle and deal with a few curves. His time for the day was 1h 5min 10sec, putting him in 12th.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2010/jul/24/tour-de-france-2010-stage-19

Historical data is overrated

From "how is this particular [past] ITT relevant?" you infer "[all] historical results are overrated" [implying perhaps, not relevant?]. Erm. Ok.

(This still doesn't mean I believe all past results are indicative of future performances though.)

In any case, as to your statement that the "wind picked up at 2:49":

The top 20 the day before was:

1 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana 88:09:48
2 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 0:00:08
3 Samuel Sánchez Gonzalez (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0:03:32
4 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 0:03:53
5 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Bel) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:05:27
6 Robert Gesink (Ned) Rabobank 0:06:41
7 Joaquin Rodriguez (Spa) Team Katusha 0:07:03
8 Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Transitions 0:09:18
9 Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Liquigas-Doimo 0:10:12
10 Christopher Horner (USA) Team Radioshack 0:10:37
11 Luis León Sánchez Gil (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0:12:46
12 Ruben Plaza Molina (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 0:13:01
13 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Team Radioshack 0:14:24
14 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Team Radioshack 0:14:44
15 Nicolas Roche (Irl) AG2R La Mondiale 0:16:00
16 Alexander Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana 0:17:57
17 John Gadret (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:17:59
18 Thomas Löfkvist (Swe) Sky Professional Cycling Team 0:18:30
19 Kevin De Weert (Bel) Quick Step 0:20:03
20 Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Spa) Omega Pharma-Lotto 0:25:23

So they started in reverse order. Meaning, you might be able to say they, more or less, rode under the same, or at least, very similar conditions.

As per your source, they seemed to agree, at least in the instance of Schleck v. Contador, who were 1 and 2 on the start list:

3.57pm: "What's the weather like?‏" asks Richard Hands [...] It's warm-ish and sunny, so no problems there. However it is windy too which will slow people down. However it is windy too which will slow people down. However it will be just as windy for Contador as it is for Schleck so it won't make too much difference to them.

According to the same source Menchov passed VDB2, meaning, they appear to have ridden under identical circumstances:

3.58pm: Menchov is in, having overtaken Van Den Broeck on the way. Menchov comes in 11th today and has probably secured himself third position in the overall Tour classification.

I do think however that some riders perform better under challenging or adverse, or non-optimal, circumstances.

Is Wiggins a person who can push himself harder, or Evans, or Kreuziger, or Nibali, in case of inclement weather?

 

[Fergoose]

I think a modest 60 seconds of gains over the two TT will be ample for Wiggins & Cadel vs the rest of the pack (if they perform well and don’t lose out on descents) and they could do that in their sleep. I don’t see any reason why we need to even be talking about 3, 4 or 5+ minutes - they don't need it. The calibre of climbers participating (in current form) are not taking multiple minutes out of Evans & Wiggins on two mountain top finishes with gradients of around 10%. I’m a shameless VdB (& Nibali) fan but a climber like VdB has as much chance of beating a fit and in form Wiggins, Evans or Menchov as Cavendish has over this layout.

Still going on about Frank being fatigued from peaking early, but not willing to extend the same logic to your boy Wiggins?

In fairness it's Frank himself who is suggesting he can't peak for the TdF after preparing for the Giro whereas Wiggins is likely satisfied with his preparations focussing on the TdF.

yeh i dont get the predictions either [of Froome & Wiggins both getting on the podium]. I've seeon some people predict both on the podium, this is a gross overstatement.

I’d argue Sky getting two on the podium on the Vuelta was tougher than getting two on the podium in the next month (given the standard of competition, the likely lower temperatures and the route layout being so much less steep).

Surprised nobody is having a thought for Taaramae as an outside bet for podium (assuming he is attending and apologies if someone has thrown his hat in the ring).

I am confused about folk that think Gesink can compete for say a podium. Do you think he can compete for the GC due to blistering ITTs and limiting his losses in the climb or vice versa? Do you expect him to be top drawer in both disciplines? I struggle to think of climbers who have successfully converted to TT at the highest level. To be honest, if Rabobank are at full strength I think Gesink might struggle to podium in his own team!

Sick and tired of you Sky trolls.

Can I ask that the mods aren’t so quick to delete posts by rabid Sky fanboys before I can read them. I keep missing them and they sound like they must be an interesting read if they can rub folk up the wrong way so much. Thanks.

 

[dlwssonic]

You think taaramae has a chance to podium but not gesink!?!??!
My goodness!
People saying sky will have two riders on the podium is a joke.
This isn't the vuelta.
Its quite contradictory especially when they discount nibali's GT win because its in the vuelta too.

 

[chamber34]

t danileson or jelle vanendert to cause a shock!!!

Does anyone else give these a chance? was gonna have a little flutter at 300-1

 

[ElChingon]

It does.

The 2010 19th stage, ITT,

pan flat, 52K; Results:

...

The #10 came in at almost 4m from the winner and ITT specialists.

Menchov and Wiggins were separated by only 20s, but the gap after them was between 2-4m to some other interesting names. (not saying that all those latecomers were giving 100%, or were in the best shape ever, or didn't have any accidents throughout the race or whatever).

#20 was at around 4:40 from the winner.

The 2011 ITT had more climbing, 42K

Results:

...

top 20 is around @ 2:40 behind the winner.

Could you extrapolate that, if you are a contender, you definitely need to be in the top 20 in both ITTs although you could actually still lose up to 6-7m?

If so, I wonder where they'll take it back, especially with the Giro in mind.

Good summary/analysis, after all, all we have is historical data, unless the others have something else we don't know of? I could break out the magic 8 ball if it will please the court

 

[chamber34]

everyone has given the obvious names of who can win, can people give a suprise winner or potential top 6 rider?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

t danileson or jelle vanendert to cause a shock!!!

Like what? Hitting each other with byciclewheels?

everyone has given the obvious names of who can win, can people give a suprise winner or potential top 6 rider?

aha... you mean they could win... ok.

 

[taiwan]

I think a modest 60 seconds of gains over the two TT will be ample for Wiggins & Cadel vs the rest of the pack (if they perform well and don’t lose out on descents) and they could do that in their sleep. I don’t see any reason why we need to even be talking about 3, 4 or 5+ minutes - they don't need it. The calibre of climbers participating (in current form) are not taking multiple minutes out of Evans & Wiggins on two mountain top finishes with gradients of around 10%. I’m a shameless VdB (& Nibali) fan but a climber like VdB has as much chance of beating a fit and in form Wiggins, Evans or Menchov as Cavendish has over this layout.



In fairness it's Frank himself who is suggesting he can't peak for the TdF after preparing for the Giro whereas Wiggins is likely satisfied with his preparations focussing on the TdF.



I’d argue Sky getting two on the podium on the Vuelta was tougher than getting two on the podium in the next month (given the standard of competition, the likely lower temperatures and the route layout being so much less steep).

Surprised nobody is having a thought for Taaramae as an outside bet for podium (assuming he is attending and apologies if someone has thrown his hat in the ring).

I am confused about folk that think Gesink can compete for say a podium. Do you think he can compete for the GC due to blistering ITTs and limiting his losses in the climb or vice versa? Do you expect him to be top drawer in both disciplines? I struggle to think of climbers who have successfully converted to TT at the highest level. To be honest, if Rabobank are at full strength I think Gesink might struggle to podium in his own team!



Can I ask that the mods aren’t so quick to delete posts by rabid Sky fanboys before I can read them. I keep missing them and they sound like they must be an interesting read if they can rub folk up the wrong way so much. Thanks.

-Sanchez could cause them problems potentially if not Schleck.

-Schleck didn't prepare for the Giro.

-Vuelta podium > Tour podium? Oh dear no.

-Taaramae > Gesink? No you're alright tx.

-Biased posts must be good if they irritate people? Bring on August already.

 

[rhubroma]

Basso........

 

[Christophe]

Tight race for 1-2, then 2:00 back, a tight race for 3-6. Here's my picks:

1. Evans
2. Wiggins
3. Gesink
4. Sanchez
5. Menchov
6. Nibali
7. VdB
8. F Schleck
9. Hesjedal

 

[gustienordic]

You think taaramae has a chance to podium but not gesink!?!??!
My goodness!
People saying sky will have two riders on the podium is a joke.
This isn't the vuelta.
Its quite contradictory especially when they discount nibali's GT win because its in the vuelta too.

I am a Taaramae fan, but there is no chance he podiums... I think 10th or 11th will be his best possible.