Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

This doesn't mean i think he hasn't improved by the way. But just like JvdB and others around that caliber, i think they can thank their lucky stars if they "only" lose about 2.30 in the long ITT.

after 3 weeks it is a different story, I dont believe wiggins will be that good after 3 weeks.

I do think Evans is more of a chance btw, imo the favorite.

I’d argue Sky getting two on the podium on the Vuelta was tougher than getting two on the podium in the next month (given the standard of competition, the likely lower temperatures and the route layout being so much less steep).

Umm no, just no. one of the most stupid things I've read.

Vuelta was a GT perfect for wiggo (only 1 climb stages and a tt to make the difference + worst field of a GT in memory).

 

[Eric8-A]

t danileson or jelle vanendert to cause a shock!!!

Does anyone else give these a chance? was gonna have a little flutter at 300-1

Maybe Vandendert. Danielson, not really.

 

[ElChingon]

Maybe Vandendert. Danielson, not really.

I would expect to see them in the background of the picture when you see the heads of state pick up the pace.

 

[Eric8-A]

I would expect to see them in the background of the picture when you see the heads of state pick up the pace.

I expect the same thing. They'll just be riding at their own pace once the race gets hard in the mountains.

Like this

Usually rolling in a minute or so behind the winning group.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I would expect to see them in the background of the picture when you see the heads of state pick up the pace.

Danielson is easier to gauge. Vanendert did remarkably last year, after having worked the entire spring and first two weeks of the tour for Gilbert. But he's still a big question mark. I think he will be more fresh this year, but that doesn't guarantee him repeating last years stunt, where he got all the freedom from both his team (after JvdB crashed) and the GC guys (because he was too far back in the GC). JvdB basically has nobody else in the mountains to help him, or fetch supplies. So it'll be interesting to see what the team tactics are, and usually that's not Lotto's strong suit. I think he will have to work for JvdB in the mountains and maybe try to go for a stage win. I doubt he'll be able to ride for a decent GC. Even if he might be capable.

EDIT: whoops, they are taking De Greef it seems. Maybe he can be the mule (not good for much else) up until the last climb.

 

[Ferminal]

after 3 weeks it is a different story, I dont believe wiggins will be that good after 3 weeks.

I do think Evans is more of a chance btw, imo the favorite.



Umm no, just no. one of the most stupid things I've read.

Vuelta was a GT perfect for wiggo (only 1 climb stages and a tt to make the difference + worst field of a GT in memory).

It will probably something like:

1. Wiggins
5. Froome
12. Porte
20. Rogers

Froome will work hard to stay a contender (if he's deemed the next best after Wiggins). The other two will probably work and then take it easy Postal style so may not finish as high up as they otherwise could. Porte could be outside the top30 actually if they are put to the sword and he has to pull Croix de Fer on his own

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

It will probably something like:

1. Wiggins
5. Froome
12. Porte
20. Rogers

Froome will work hard to stay a contender (if he's deemed the next best after Wiggins). The other two will probably work and then take it easy Postal style so may not finish as high up as they otherwise could. Porte could be outside the top30 actually if they are put to the sword and he has to pull Croix de Fer on his own

I expect wiggo on the podium
froome just outside the 10
and the other two non factors.

 

[Eric8-A]

It will probably something like:

1. Wiggins
5. Froome
12. Porte
20. Rogers

Froome will work hard to stay a contender (if he's deemed the next best after Wiggins). The other two will probably work and then take it easy Postal style so may not finish as high up as they otherwise could. Porte could be outside the top30 actually if they are put to the sword and he has to pull Croix de Fer on his own

There are the riders who'll be winning the team classification.

 

[theyoungest]

I have no idea which Monfort you are talking about, but i was talking about MAXIME Monfort. You obviously have him mixed up with somebody else. And even then, Monfort has always been better at ITT's than Gesink, be it flat or hilly. You guys seem to invest too much hope in the fact that Gesink did a fast last flat section in a short ITT to conclude that he will have no problem with a long flat ITT compared to the big guns. This doesn't mean i think he hasn't improved by the way. But just like JvdB and others around that caliber, i think they can thank their lucky stars if they "only" lose about 2.30 in the long ITT.

It's not just the TT in Suisse, last year in Pais Vasco he was the best of them all on the flat/descending part. And in Tirreno he challenged Evans for the overall, on a completely flat TT.

Gesink is probably the heaviest of all GC contenders, meaning that in theory he should be able to produce the necessary power in a flat TT. It was just his terrible TT position that prevented this, until recently.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

It's not just the TT in Suisse, last year in Pais Vasco he was the best of them all on the flat/descending part. And in Tirreno he challenged Evans for the overall, on a completely flat TT.

Gesink is probably the heaviest of all GC contenders, meaning that in theory he should be able to produce the necessary power in a flat TT. It was just his terrible TT position that prevented this, until recently.

To be fair, Evans won that T-A on pure class alone. He can win uphill sprints when his form is only decent, which I believe it was.

 

[theyoungest]

To be fair, Evans won that T-A on pure class alone. He can win uphill sprints when his form is only decent, which I believe it was.

Yeah, and Gesink was really flying in that Tirreno

It's just a fact he did the best TT of all contenders there. You don't buy excuses regarding Gesink, so why do so for others?

 

[theyoungest]

To be fair, Evans won that T-A on pure class alone. He can win uphill sprints when his form is only decent, which I believe it was.

Yeah, and Gesink was really flying in that Tirreno

We saw this year how Evans time trials when the form is "only decent".

 

[Jan the Man]

There are the riders who'll be winning the team classification.

People are forgetting Svistov. He could be of more use in the high mountains of the tour than maybe both Porte and Rogers. He was used up early in the Dauphine but is arguably a better climber than the aforementioned duo, who I suspect they were saving till later (in the Dauphine) as they were doing well in the GC.

I don't think that would be the case for the Tour as they would be all in for Wiggins and I think Svistov and Froome can last a long time if there are aggressive racing in the pack which may cause the likes of Rogers, EBH and Porte problems.

Still think that Evans will win the Tour with Wiggins in second and Menchov in third. Although I have put the money on Menchov a long time ago (after Paris -Nice) as he was absolutely the value bet.

 

[TheEnoculator]

Sky just announced their Tour team. No surprises here.

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/1...p-Bradley-Wiggins-win-the-Tour-de-France.aspx

 

[Andre.J]

For TDF victory:

1. VDB
2. Sanchez
3. Valverde

Only because I want it so.

I know, I know: against all odds.

 

[dlwssonic]

For TDF victory:

1. VDB
2. Sanchez
3. Valverde

Only because I want it so.

I know, I know: against all odds.

not totally impossible.

 

[Wobbly knees]

Confirmation at last that Team Sky are going all out for the GC win with their big guns in for Wiggo.

Cav accepting the fact 'It's a dream to ride for a team that holds so much British interest and has a chance to win the yellow jersey'.

I for one will be fascinated to see how it pans out and if Wiggo can hold his form and get through 3 long weeks of racing.

 

[will10]

I think Cav has finally twigged that he only has one chance at Olympic gold, and this is also Wiggo's best chance for the Tour.

 

[masking_agent]

what about Hesjedal ? Does anyone think he can pull off the double ?

 

[Spine Concept]

what about Hesjedal ? Does anyone think he can pull off the double ?

In short, no way. If Conti couldn't pull it off I highly doubt Hesjedal will. Admittedly though, the Giro Conti won was much harder and he had to deal with a series of crashes in the Tour, but even so there's no way in my opinion.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

what about Hesjedal ? Does anyone think he can pull off the double ?

Seriously. Even if he hadn't done the Giro. No.

 

[gustienordic]

People are forgetting Svistov. He could be of more use in the high mountains of the tour than maybe both Porte and Rogers. He was used up early in the Dauphine but is arguably a better climber than the aforementioned duo, who I suspect they were saving till later (in the Dauphine) as they were doing well in the GC.

I don't think that would be the case for the Tour as they would be all in for Wiggins and I think Svistov and Froome can last a long time if there are aggressive racing in the pack which may cause the likes of Rogers, EBH and Porte problems.

Still think that Evans will win the Tour with Wiggins in second and Menchov in third. Although I have put the money on Menchov a long time ago (after Paris -Nice) as he was absolutely the value bet.

He will be a huge asset to Wiggo. He was tenth in the craziest climbing GT in recent years, and beat plenty of good climbers (Anton, Nieve, etc) That boy can climb decently.

 

[Viking]

what about Hesjedal ? Does anyone think he can pull off the double ?

I don't think it's impossible, but extremely unlikely. If he can peak again after the Giro, which wasn't as extreme as recent years, there are too many ITT kms. He's not bad in the chrono, but he'll lose too much time to some of the better TTers going for GC and he's not good enough in the mountains to take it back. I might give him a shot if stage 9 were a TTT.

 

[Panda Claws]

what about Hesjedal ? Does anyone think he can pull off the double ?

Keep living your dream.

 

[TheEnoculator]

I had Hesjedal in my previous poll, if you want, you can vote for him here:

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=17310

But I left him out in this poll because, to beat both Wiggins and Evans (and Menchov I might add), who are much stronger ITTers than Hesjedal, not to mention much fresher than Hesjedal, the chance of a Giro-Tour double is very slim. Garmin has a strong team going to the Tour, but not as strong as Sky or BMC. It's nice to dream it though, and people love the idea because Hesjedal is such an underdog.

Remember the Giro wasn't a breeze for Hesjedal. He had fight off a very strong Purito, and he didn't win it until the very last stage. So he'd be mentally tired, if not physically tired.

I think it's a mistake for Garmin to have him a team leader for Tour. Both Martin and Vande Velde can aim for good results on the GC, but instead Vaughters are using them to help a tired Hesjedal.