Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[theyoungest]

Mate, even i said recently that Gesink is a better tter and always said he was a better climber than Nibali, though its close and could go either way, but the thing to consider is that Gesink is not on top form because of the career threatning injury of 8 months ago, and if that is the case then one would expect Nibali to beat him.

All Dekker_T's doubts have been removed after the amazing race that is the Tour of California

Who knows how he'll fare in three weeks of racing. Nibali definitely has the upper hand.

 

[patrick767]

Andy won lbl. He doesn't rate it as a race though.

I dont think its unfair to say Gesink is a tour only rider. Thats not to say he is as bad as Andy.

That's an odd thing to say given that he rode California to win and was extremely pleased as it showed he's back from his injury.

He also has two top ten Vuelta finishes.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

And his success in Canada, as well.

I believe the issue lies in that the discussion after his successes throughout the season always lead to talk about the tour only, at least that what I remember.

EDIT

Where will vdb and gesink get time on nibali menchov and sanchez?

Im starting to see a general pattern of riders who only care about the tour - gesink vdb, getting rated surprisingly highly, and the riders who actually race all round seasons - nibali menchov sanchez, get rated surprisingly lowly, despite each of the latte having a vastly superior palmares and record to each of the former

Also, to rate Gesink lower than Menchov in terms of a holistic calendar is unfair. He likes his grand tours more than anyone (or anything) else, but this style of all year racing is not comparable to what would be regularly understood as an all year racer.

 

[DenisMenchov]

It looks like Menchov is not the favorite according to Cyclingnews preview of Dauphine start list.

The Dauphiné will feature the same teams which will compete in the Tour de France and many of their top riders including Tour champion Cadel Evans (BMC), last year's Dauphiné winner Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky), Europcar's Thomas Voeckler, Vuelta a Espana winner Juan Jose Cobo (Movistar), Tony Martin (Omega Pharma-Quickstep) and Janez Brajkovic (Astana).

Why on Earth are those guys listed as top riders for le Tour. Even Cobo doesn't have a decent chance...

 

[Zam_Olyas]

It looks like Menchov is not the favorite according to Cyclingnews preview of Dauphine start list.


Why on Earth are those guys listed as top riders for le Tour. Even Cobo doesn't have a decent chance...

Cycling news could be the answer.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Im starting to see a general pattern of riders who only care about the tour - gesink vdb, getting rated surprisingly highly, and the riders who actually race all round seasons - nibali menchov sanchez, get rated surprisingly lowly, despite each of the latte having a vastly superior palmares and record to each of the former

what a joke this post is. Gesink career thus far has shown he tries to race all season, something like evans.

Only he rates the tour his main priority in GT racing... but hey is saum different?
Stupid comment or your simply havent been paying attention. Unless of course your referring to this year

It doesn't mean its the only race they ever do or win, hell Armstrong even won a race outside the tour on occasion, but it suggests that its the only race that is truly in their heart.

Anyone who by 23 has decided that for the rest of their career the tdf is the only gt they want to do, and that it is preferable to limp your way through to paris with an injury than do the vuelta, well i think its fair to say they are tour only riders.

Maybe he will change his mind or prove me wrong, but for now i think the tag is deserved and many of your own have joined me in criticizing Gesink for this particular thing.

this is a ridicilious manipulation of the situation. While we may not have liked his choice to continue the tour, he did because he felt he owed to the team.
Gesink and LA are not at all comparable, when Gesink crashed out of tour 09 first thing he said was Vuelta. Outside of injuries we have always seen Gesink try hard at other races.

Again I ask how is his situation different to samus? Samu races early season (then doesnt even bother in the warm races for le tour) and races the tour. Similar to Gesink in recent years (baring injuries) Hmmm I guess because you adore him you see no need to label him a tour only rider.

agree with DT, your argument makes no sense.

--

I agree nibali has the right to be considered more of a threat however.

 

[The Hitch]

Also, to rate Gesink lower than Menchov in terms of a holistic calendar is unfair. He likes his grand tours more than anyone (or anything) else, but this style of all year racing is not comparable to what would be regularly understood as an all year racer.

Someone who had a contract stipulation saying they could leave the team if it doesn't get into the tour and then when the team doesn't get into the Tour is content to ride a Giro with even less chance of victory, rides the tour of austria without a peep when everyone else is at the tour, and then works for an inferior rider in the Vuelta and does it with a smile on his face, such a rider can never be critiscsed for riding Tour only.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_NqOX1v_5s

I can think of many cyclists, especially leaders who would be quite bitter about the whole thing, and yet Menchov, if you didn't know the context you would assume he is giving a TDF victory speech.

And lets remember, how many times has Denis focused his entire season around the Tour? Only about 3 including this year probably.

 

[The Hitch]

Again I ask how is his situation different to samus? Samu races early season (then doesnt even bother in the warm races for le tour) and races the tour. Similar to Gesink in recent years (baring injuries) Hmmm I guess because you adore him you see no need to label him a tour only rider.

What a fanboy comment. First of all i did not compare armstrong to Gesink, in fact i said they were not alike. But the fanboy eyes, they do not read, they see a glimpse of a sentence and the rage, it takes over.

Im not like you.

I have always admitted Samu since 2010 is a Tour only rider.

I will not deny the facts. He very much is.

But hey, why look at my opinions, if you can just, make them up?

And over his career, Samu has many many times been willing to overlook the Tour. FOcus on other stuff. He was absent from the Tour for 5 years, did it once, then missed it again to go for the Vuelta, before his Tour podium quest began when he was already into his 30's

Gesink meanwhile, already in 2009 decided every season would be based around the Tour.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

What a fanboy comment.

Im not like you.

I have always admitted Samu since 2010 is a Tour only rider.

I will not deny the facts. He very much is.

But hey, why look at my opinions, if you can just, make them up?

you are right I was wrong to mention samu, I thought you listed him upon re-read it was menchov which is even more ridicilious. Nothing to do with your histry, I just didnt read properly.

But the point stands, to call Gesink a tour only rider is stupid. Gesink for his short career when injury free tries to win as much as he can.

And btw I did look and debate your opinion, samu was just an added point. Or did you fail to comprehend this?

edit; and you can call me a fanboy all you want, but I disagree im a bigger one then say you. I wont argue gesink's short comings if they are true. But if someone suggests something on his character like you are now, and I disagree then yes I will argue. But yes hitch keep labelling me a blindless fanboy if you think it will help you win the debate. It isn't the gesink issue I am debatting, but the injustice of the label you provide said rider..

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Someone who had a contract stipulation saying they could leave the team if it doesn't get into the tour and then when the team doesn't get into the Tour is content to ride a Giro with even less chance of victory, rides the tour of austria without a peep when everyone else is at the tour, and then works for an inferior rider in the Vuelta and does it with a smile on his face, such a rider can never be critiscsed for riding Tour only.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_NqOX1v_5s

I can think of many cyclists, especially leaders who would be quite bitter about the whole thing, and yet Menchov, if you didn't know the context you would assume he is giving a TDF victory speech.

And lets remember, how many times has Denis focused his entire season around the Tour? Only about 3 including this year probably.

you dont think someone like gesink, if he missed out on tour wouldnt ride the other GTs?
umm ok.

Riders can have main goals ala tour. But it doesn't mean they are tour only riders ala scheck. You simply fail to understand this, that is clear.

 

[El Pistolero]

De bello fautores.

 

[The Hitch]

you are right I was wrong to mention samu, I thought you listed him upon re-read it was menchov which is even more ridicilious. Nothing to do with your histry, I just didnt read properly.

But the point stands, to call Gesink a tour only rider is stupid. Gesink for his short career when injury free tries to win as much as he can.
:

What i originally wrote is that he "only cares about the Tour".

It is obviously a slight exageration, not designed to be taken at 100% as he is able to perform at a very high level in other races, unlike the other person i mentioned.

it is clear he loves winning races and is capable of doing so outside the Tour, but conveniently only if they fit around his tour schedule - way before - Oman, Cali, paris nice, Tirreno, Pais Vasco, or after - that italian classic, the canadian races.

He is still young, has many many chances at the Tour left, probably when he will be a better rider yet, possibly with the competition not as hard, in the future, and already since he was 23, he has gone for the Tour every season, even if he has a very good chance of winning 1 of the other gts and can come back to the Tour for an even better shot, in the future.

 

[Tyler'sTwin]

Because the TdF becomes more and more of a joke. 10 years from now, the length will be 2.000 km with 5 hills, and a sprinter will win the overall. It´s just gotten ridiculous over the past few years... I expect the TdF even more dull than this years giro, which sounds absurd now. But it will be like this.

I don't think so. With 100 TT km, the lesser TT'ers will be forced to ride aggressively in the mountains. I'd be surprised if they waited til the last 2 km.

 

[blaxland]

This year im hoping for someone new to win the tour.Someone like Gesink,he is young,good climber/good timetrialer and seems willing to attack.I just hope the TDF doesnt turn into another bore fest and Bradley wiggins(Mr Boring)doesnt win...How sad our sport would be if that happened.Anyways cant wait till Alberto is back and racing at the top with saxo and Riis.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

The correct terminology would have been Gesink's GT focus is based around le tour.

As for his actual season riding, it is no different to Nibali as he races many races each season with the intention to do well.

Whereas someone like menchov while he has gone outside the box in terms of GT, he hardly races in a full season sense. And someone schleck just has poor attitude towards the season calender.

Anyway Gesink is young, I also hope he broadens his horizons in regards to his GT focus.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Someone who had a contract stipulation saying they could leave the team if it doesn't get into the tour and then when the team doesn't get into the Tour is content to ride a Giro with even less chance of victory, rides the tour of austria without a peep when everyone else is at the tour, and then works for an inferior rider in the Vuelta and does it with a smile on his face, such a rider can never be critiscsed for riding Tour only.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_NqOX1v_5s

I can think of many cyclists, especially leaders who would be quite bitter about the whole thing, and yet Menchov, if you didn't know the context you would assume he is giving a TDF victory speech.

And lets remember, how many times has Denis focused his entire season around the Tour? Only about 3 including this year probably.

He also worked for Rasmussen in both 2005 and 2007. That is because he knows how important the team is in this sport. And you can't expect others to work for you if you don't show that team work.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

He also worked for Rasmussen in both 2005 and 2007. That is because he knows how important the team is in this sport. And you can't expect others to work for you if you don't show that team work.

Menchov's character has never been in question, and I agree with the praise he gets. A truly great GT rider imo, both as a leader and a domestique when required.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Someone who had a contract stipulation saying they could leave the team if it doesn't get into the tour and then when the team doesn't get into the Tour is content to ride a Giro with even less chance of victory, rides the tour of austria without a peep when everyone else is at the tour, and then works for an inferior rider in the Vuelta and does it with a smile on his face, such a rider can never be critiscsed for riding Tour only.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_NqOX1v_5s

I can think of many cyclists, especially leaders who would be quite bitter about the whole thing, and yet Menchov, if you didn't know the context you would assume he is giving a TDF victory speech.

And lets remember, how many times has Denis focused his entire season around the Tour? Only about 3 including this year probably.

I wasn't talking about Menchov, I was talking about the hierarchy of him to Gesink. You're right, Menchov is a classy rider with admirable focus on the season. To use him as a benchmark is setting the bar unrealistically high for the characteristic of an all year racer. Further, his focus is on GTs, like you describe. A younger guy like Gesink can't be held to the same standard of doing all 3 GTs a year, as the only qualification to be a year round racer.

You even say 3 years isn't enough for someone to have lost focus on things other than the tour, but Gesink has been at a high level for what, 3 and a half years? Since 2007 at least on a GC level.

 

[xmoonx]

Tour Comparisons from Steephill

A comparative of 2006 -2012 TdF; scroll downward to see the chart.

 

[xmoonx]

Tour Comparisons from 2006-2012

http://www.steephill.tv/tour-de-france/

Scroll down to see a comparative of 2006-2012 TdF

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

Though I voted for Evans earlier, I've changed my mind. I'm really starting to think that Sammy Sanchez will win this year. Over the last 2 Tours, I think he's proven that the Schlecks are the only riders here that can out-climb him, and he will certainly make up more than enough time over them in the TTs.

 

[karlboss]

Which of the favourites are riding de Suisse?

Evans, Wiggins, Sanchez, Menchov, Nibali, Van den Broek, Schleck, Voekler, Rolland, are down for the dauphine.

Sooooo, Gesink?, Vino?, Velits?, Leipheimer?, Valverde?

Stacked one way isn't it.

 

[ElChingon]

http://www.steephill.tv/tour-de-france/

Scroll down to see a comparative of 2006-2012 TdF

I hate having to go to another site, just post it here alright already...

Comparing 2012 to previous years:____2012__2011__2010__2009__2008__2007__2006
Flat Stages_________________________9____10_____9____10____10____11____9
Medium Mountain Stages______________4_____3_____4_____1_____4_____1____4
Mountain Stages_____________________5_____6_____6_____7_____5_____6____5
# of Categorized Climbs (Cat 2, 1 and HC)_25___23____23____20____19____21___22
Summit Finishes____________________3_____4_____3_____3_____4_____3_____3
Individual Time Trialing_____________101.4k__41k___59k___55k___82k___117k__116k
Team Time Trial_____________________0_____23k____0___39k____0____0____0
Overall Distance__________________3479k_3436k_3596k_3435k_3554k_3547k_3657k

• 2012 has no time bonuses again
• 20 points available for each intermediate sprint worth 1/2 the stage finish, but only one per stage. Points down to 15th place

 

[ElChingon]

So its not 110K of TT's this year, who was saying that... errr....errr...

 

[karlboss]

I hate having to go to another site, just post it here alright already...

Comparing 2012 to previous years:____2012__2011__2010__2009__2008__2007__2006
Flat Stages_________________________9____10_____9____10____10____11____9
Medium Mountain Stages______________4_____3_____4_____1_____4_____1____4
Mountain Stages_____________________5_____6_____6_____7_____5_____6____5
# of Categorized Climbs (Cat 2, 1 and HC)_25__23____23____20____19____21___22
Summit Finishes____________________3_____4_____3_____3_____4_____3_____3
Individual Time Trialing_______________96k___41k___59k___55k___82k___117k__116k
Team Time Trial_____________________0_____23k____0___39k____0____0____0
Overall Distance__________________3479k_3436k_3596k_3435k_3554k_3547k_3657k

Thanks, one extra high and medium mountain a piece and we have a nice balance