Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Catwhoorg]

You can only beat who turns out for the race, so AC is a non-factor.

With 2 stage race wins, another podium (Algarve) and a DNF (Catalunya) out of 4 attempts so far this year, for sure Wiggo is the man in form out of any of the possible contenders.

If he can hold (or improve upon) that form is the big question, and I see no reason why he cannot.

 

[dlwssonic]

You can only beat who turns out for the race, so AC is a non-factor.

With 2 stage race wins, another podium (Algarve) and a DNF (Catalunya) out of 4 attempts so far this year, for sure Wiggo is the man in form out of any of the possible contenders.

If he can hold (or improve upon) that form is the big question, and I see no reason why he cannot.

The others who have not performed as well in their preparation races, might just be as strong as wiggins in the tdf as they have been peaking for it after all.
TBH the parcours in romandie and PN REALLY suited wiggins.
However he did do well on mende.

 

[airstream]

So you admit you were wrong when 2 pages ago you said contador could maybe hold his own in a short tt.

Stop trying to take me at word when there's nowhere to take. I was expressing quite indefinably: "might be...not worse" You see an absolute specifics in such matters as Contador vs. Evans - ok, great job, but I don't see.

Well i guess its ygood to see you are on occasion willing to change your opinion when you see the facts.

We have the same knowledge and facts.

The first discussion of this proved that it was a theory based entirely on the assumption that a bigger rider will logically be stronger than a smaller one and not on any actual results.

I don't absolutize this but as for pancake flat with lots of wind it definetely works. Don't you consider the 2007 and 2010 Tours "actual results"?

 

[Parrulo]

You can only beat who turns out for the race, so AC is a non-factor.

With 2 stage race wins, another podium (Algarve) and a DNF (Catalunya) out of 4 attempts so far this year, for sure Wiggo is the man in form out of any of the possible contenders.

If he can hold (or improve upon) that form is the big question, and I see no reason why he cannot.

so he podium a small race which consists of a 3k long climb and 20 odd k itt and won a bigger race which consisted on a 5k hill and a 20 oddk slightly climbing itt and another race which simply consisted of an itt.

yup if there ever was needed any further proof of wiggins as a GT rider this is it!!!!!

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

so he podium a small race which consists of a 3k long climb and 20 odd k itt and won a bigger race which consisted on a 5k hill and a 20 oddk slightly climbing itt and another race which simply consisted of an itt.

yup if there ever was needed any further proof of wiggins as a GT rider this is it!!!!!

I agree with this.
Wiggins have not shown anything in any real mountains this season, since there has bee none where he has raced
But he has still a big "?" mark with his climbing skills

 

[johnnycash]

lol This is obviously not true for Andy, he is always crap before the tdf. And performs well in the tdf. Cadel is right on track. He performed great at the criterium, but was hampered by the infection at romandie. He might not be as strong in the dauphine but he will be good for the tour. I am pretty sure evans will be suffering and pulling faces at the dauphine.

You know tony martin won PN and he easily could have won romandie this year.
Does that mean he can win the tdf???
This races don't mean **** about winning the tdf, they just have easier hilly stages with a TT.
Even if wiggins wins the dauphine, it won't change my view of him, because everybody else will be in training mode and will not have the form.
He still has not showed enough in a GT to be considered a favorite IMO

Actually you say that but i might just have a little flutter on Tony Martin for the tour, you never know. It might turn that Wiggins actually can't recover, the Shack implodes, Cadel crashes and TM has a good team if they thought he was worth a punt.

I wouldn't expect your view of BW to change, this is a forum for debate after all, and we all have our bias on riders/teams.

I'd still put Cadel as the favourite but only just.

 

[johnnycash]

Not a stat expert but has there, in recent times, been a tour where a favourite (if not 'the' favourite) where it is doubtly whether he could stay with any top climbers if they really attack?

the GC winner always seems to be there or thereabouts on the big climbs but perhaps this year, that won't be the case.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

the GC winner always seems to be there or thereabouts on the big climbs but perhaps this year, that won't be the case.

Because the TdF becomes more and more of a joke. 10 years from now, the length will be 2.000 km with 5 hills, and a sprinter will win the overall. It´s just gotten ridiculous over the past few years... I expect the TdF even more dull than this years giro, which sounds absurd now. But it will be like this.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Because the TdF becomes more and more of a joke. 10 years from now, the length will be 2.000 km with 5 hills, and a sprinter will win the overall. It´s just gotten ridiculous over the past few years... I expect the TdF even more dull than this years giro, which sounds absurd now. But it will be like this.

Actually last year was one of the most montanious Tour in history.
It's a myth that there were more mountains back in the day. There were more TT and riders actually used the mountains. Nowerday everybody is just waiting for one or two mountain finishes.

 

[Gloin22]

I didn't consider him a favourite tbh. Now my opinion's changed a little bit. I think he got the mentality to win now and he has shown it this season. If he can keep this up and do well in his training and stay safe at tour i'd say he has a chance to win. Podium would be my guess though at the end for him, which I'd say he would be happy with.

Who would have though a trackie is considered such a favourite for Tour, ehh

 

[Bavarianrider]

this hilly? or am I being deceived by the profile?

Well I'd say it's not flat TT. Hence you can call it hilly.
However, by no means is it as hilly as last year's TT in Grenoble for example. Therefore it should certainly suit rollers more then climbers.
By the way, where did you get that from? It's not on the official page yet?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Actually last year was one of the most montanious Tour in history.
It's a myth that there were more mountains back in the day. There were more TT and riders actually used the mountains. Nowerday everybody is just waiting for one or two mountain finishes.

OK, give you that. Anyway, the TdF were never "easier" than nowadays.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

that's mostly because the stages are now so goddamn short compared to 15 years ago. 300 km stages were no exception

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Who would have though a trackie is considered such a favourite for Tour, ehh

Not in my lifetime i thought. Well, i was wrong. But it shows once more how ridiculous the TdF has become.

 

[Catwhoorg]

I agree with this.
Wiggins have not shown anything in any real mountains this season, since there has bee none where he has raced
But he has still a big "?" mark with his climbing skills

Are there 'real mountains' in the tour this year ?


I think after the Vuelta he answered most of the questions.

If he had got is gearing right at the Angrilu, he probably wouldn't have lost as much as he did. Which was what 1.20 to Cobo, and 40s to Menchov ? He did beat Purito on that climb.

He isn't a top tier climber for sure, but he can hang with them for a good long time, especially if they leave it late to attack.

 

[Bavarianrider]

OK, give you that. Anyway, the TdF were never "easier" than nowadays.

Hmm, okay the stages are shorter. But besides that, you really can't say that in my opinion. The Tour is just raced easier, so to say. But the parcours offers just as much as in the past.
In my opinion one problem is the big peleton.
If all teams would have only 7 instead of 9 riders, things would look different, right away.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Hmm, okay the stages are shorter. But besides that, you really can't say that in my opinion. The Tour is just raced easier, so to say. But the parcours offers just as much as in the past.
In my opinion one problem is the big peleton.
If all teams would have only 7 instead of 9 riders, things would look different, right away.

No, no, just have a look here. It´s not too long ago.

That´s what i call a grand tour. Those were the real TdF´s.

5 MTF, 29 mountains either Cat. 2 (8), Cat. 1 (12), or HC (9!)
(in comparison 2012; 2 MTF, 25 mountains either Cat. 2 (8), Cat. 1 (11), or HC (6))

Prolog 1. Juli West-Berlin (DE) 6,1 (EZF)
1. Etappe 2. Juli West-Berlin (DE) – West-Berlin (DE) 105,5
2. Etappe 2. Juli West-Berlin (DE) – West-Berlin (DE) 40,5 (MZF)
Ruhetag
3. Etappe 4. Juli Karlsruhe (DE) – Stuttgart (DE) 219
4. Etappe 5. Juli Stuttgart (DE) – Pforzheim (DE) 79
5. Etappe 5. Juli Pforzheim (DE) – Straßburg 112,5
6. Etappe 6. Juli Strasbourg – Épinal 169
7. Etappe 7. Juli Épinal – Troyes 211
8. Etappe 8. Juli Troyes – Epinay-sous-Sénart 205,5
9. Etappe 9. Juli Orléans – Renazé 260
10. Etappe 10. Juli Saumur – Futuroscope 87,5 (EZF)
11. Etappe 11. Juli Poitiers – Chaumeil 255
12. Etappe 12. Juli Brive – Bordeaux 228
13. Etappe 13. Juli Bayonne – Pau 219
14. Etappe 14. Juli Pau – Luz-Ardiden 166
15. Etappe 15. Juli Tarbes – Blagnac 164
16. Etappe 16. Juli Blagnac – Millau 216,5
17. Etappe 17. Juli Millau – Avignon 239
Ruhetag
18. Etappe 19. Juli Carpentras – Mont Ventoux 36,5 (EZF)
19. Etappe 20. Juli Valréas – Villard-de-Lans 185
20. Etappe 21. Juli Villard-de-Lans – L'Alpe d'Huez 201
21. Etappe 22. Juli Le Bourg-d'Oisans – La Plagne 185,5
22. Etappe 23. Juli La Plagne – Morzine 186
23. Etappe 24. Juli Saint-Julien-en-Genevois – Dijon 224,5
24. Etappe 25. Juli Dijon – Dijon 38 (EZF)
25. Etappe 26. Juli Créteil – Paris 192

 

[Bavarianrider]

No, no, just have a look here. It´s not too long ago.

That´s what i call a grand tour. Those were the real TdF´s.

5 MTF, 29 mountains either Cat. 2 (8), Cat. 1 (12), or HC (9!)
(in comparison 2012; 2 MTF, 25 mountains either Cat. 2 (8), Cat. 1 (11), or HC (6))

Prolog 1. Juli West-Berlin (DE) 6,1 (EZF)
1. Etappe 2. Juli West-Berlin (DE) – West-Berlin (DE) 105,5
2. Etappe 2. Juli West-Berlin (DE) – West-Berlin (DE) 40,5 (MZF)
Ruhetag
3. Etappe 4. Juli Karlsruhe (DE) – Stuttgart (DE) 219
4. Etappe 5. Juli Stuttgart (DE) – Pforzheim (DE) 79
5. Etappe 5. Juli Pforzheim (DE) – Straßburg 112,5
6. Etappe 6. Juli Strasbourg – Épinal 169
7. Etappe 7. Juli Épinal – Troyes 211
8. Etappe 8. Juli Troyes – Epinay-sous-Sénart 205,5
9. Etappe 9. Juli Orléans – Renazé 260
10. Etappe 10. Juli Saumur – Futuroscope 87,5 (EZF)
11. Etappe 11. Juli Poitiers – Chaumeil 255
12. Etappe 12. Juli Brive – Bordeaux 228
13. Etappe 13. Juli Bayonne – Pau 219
14. Etappe 14. Juli Pau – Luz-Ardiden 166
15. Etappe 15. Juli Tarbes – Blagnac 164
16. Etappe 16. Juli Blagnac – Millau 216,5
17. Etappe 17. Juli Millau – Avignon 239
Ruhetag
18. Etappe 19. Juli Carpentras – Mont Ventoux 36,5 (EZF)
19. Etappe 20. Juli Valréas – Villard-de-Lans 185
20. Etappe 21. Juli Villard-de-Lans – L'Alpe d'Huez 201
21. Etappe 22. Juli Le Bourg-d'Oisans – La Plagne 185,5
22. Etappe 23. Juli La Plagne – Morzine 186
23. Etappe 24. Juli Saint-Julien-en-Genevois – Dijon 224,5
24. Etappe 25. Juli Dijon – Dijon 38 (EZF)
25. Etappe 26. Juli Créteil – Paris 192

Well that was an extreme year, though. It wasn't the norm.
We'll never get to see that kind of parcours again, though. I think everyone should live with this reality.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I know that. But it´s not a must to ruin the historic TdF either. Really, it´s ridiculous that a track rider is considered a tour favourite. That´s the whole hard truth.

P.S.: I don´t expect anything less than that this year will be the worst TdF ever. In all aspects (toughness, time gaps, excitement).

 

[airstream]

The 2002 Tour was harder than the 2011 one.

 

[Bavarianrider]

I know that. But it´s not a must to ruin the historic TdF either. Really, it´s ridiculous that a track rider is considered a tour favourite. That´s the whole hard truth.

Well. Come on calling Wiggins a track rider is unfair, though.
Wiggins has had a long street career know, and he has established as one of the best TTler and is getting better and better on the climbs.

Elite TTler plus good Climber.
That kind of combination has won many Tours.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

but barely 4 years ago he was still climbing in the bus, 30 minutes behind

 

[Bavarianrider]

but barely 4 years ago he was still climbing in the bus, 30 minutes behind

So did Indurain, Armstrong and many many others before they won their Tours. (I don't think that Wiggins will acuzally win, though)

 

[theyoungest]

but barely 4 years ago he was still climbing in the bus, 30 minutes behind

Together with Cobo, Froome, Westra, Hesjedal, and De Gendt

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

So did Indurain, Armstrong and many many others before they won their Tours. (I don't think that Wiggins will acuzally win, though)

Armstrong we know why, Indurain is obvious... not a good company. Anyway, those who won pre 1990+ were great from the time entering the TdF. That´s proven, so no doubt about that.
But granted, i wanted to provoke a little with the "track" sentence , just to show how bad the TdF´s of late have become.