Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Hugo Koblet]

You'd imagine that after all he *****footing around in the last Giro people would have new respect for his last year's attack. But I guess that would be expecting too much.

I'm not sure I completely understand what you mean - especially with the '*****footing' - but I did actually gain a whole lot of respect for him on last years stage to Galibier - but then he lost most of it again the next day.

 

[theyoungest]

His back is quite parallel to road compared to Andy, Andy's back has an angle to road and this was his only TT in this year I guess?

Well, then take Hesjedal, a rider with a similar build to Andy, in the final Giro TT:

These tall guys are just restricted in their possibilities on a TT bike. And Cadel Evans has unusually long upper arms, so he's screwed as well. But that doesn't mean that their position sucks because their back isn't completely horizontal.

 

[karlboss]

Well, then take Hesjedal, a rider with a similar build to Andy, in the final Giro TT:

These tall guys are just restricted in their possibilities on a TT bike. And Cadel Evans has unusually long upper arms, so he's screwed as well. But that doesn't mean that their position sucks because their back isn't completely horizontal.

Isn't hesjedal a worse TTer than Andy?

 

[theyoungest]

Isn't hesjedal a worse TTer than Andy?

He's a bit up and down, but apparently he's worked on his position as well, and in the Giro his TTing was good... after all, it won him the race.

 

[airstream]

It's a 53.5km flat TT, even at his absolute best he could still lose two minutes to Wiggins/Evans/Menchov. Then there's the 20" in the prologue and 1'30" in the early TT.

Aspin/Peyresourde on 16 aren't really hard enough to get away and stay away from the Sky train. Same for Glandon/Croix de Fer/Mollard on 11 (no, he can't take 2' on La Toussuire alone).

Bales/Peyresourde/Peyragudes is actually the best opportunity for big time. Bales is hard enough that they just may be break everyone down, and then Andy would launch himself on Peyresourde.

The numbers are inflated. Sky train is massively overrated. When Shack put the hammer down properly, only Froome will be able to stay with Wiggins. OK, you voted for Andy but reject all my arguments. What is your scenario? Miracles in tt?

Evans in 2007.

2007 was Evans' prime by pure strength at least. For instance, we don't take Andy's Zoncolan wattage because understand that time is in the past.


Poor Andy. He needs one's respect soo much.

I like the approach to estimating Wiggins' chances. People either have no doubt that he will win because of brilliant TT and Sky train or say "you don't understand. Wiggins can't climb with the best at the Tour". Hehe, there is no third option.

 

[Ferminal]

The numbers are inflated. Sky train is massively overrated. When Shack put the hammer down properly, only Froome will be able to stay with Wiggins. OK, you voted for Andy but reject all my arguments. What is your scenario?

What numbers? 3'30" - 4'00" is a best case scenario in terms of TT losses for Andy.

La Planche 20"
La Toussuire 40"
Bagneres de Luchon 30"

Like I said, it comes down to 17, if they can create carnage on that day, just maybe Andy can get multiple minutes. Otherwise he's simply relying on the main contenders having bad days. Sky will be strong enough to deliver Wiggins/Evans to the final climb, that is all that matters because it's highly unlikely Andy takes the time needed in just a 30 minute effort.

I voted Andy because I hope he can do something spectacular, alas, it is still not the most likely scenario.

2007 was Evans' prime by pure strength at least. For instance, we don't take Andy's Zoncolan wattage because understand that time is in the past.

2007 Evans was great in both time trials, it is possible, and nothing to do with "a sign of the times".

 

[karlboss]

He's a bit up and down, but apparently he's worked on his position as well, and in the Giro his TTing was good... after all, it won him the race.

He lost over a minute in 30km to Marco Pinotti who is good but isn't quite tour de france TT winning material, he only beat Rodriguez(who was in good form and rode the TT of his life) by 47 seconds. He finished high in a slow field.
CQ head to head 10-10 when you take out TTT, and then remember Andy only rides at the Tour.


I agree with ferminal, Andy at his absolute best only loses 2:30 in the TTs, at absolute worst, about 5:30, I think he should count on losing 4 minutes and if he does any better count it a bonus.

 

[burning]

Well, then take Hesjedal, a rider with a similar build to Andy, in the final Giro TT:

These tall guys are just restricted in their possibilities on a TT bike. And Cadel Evans has unusually long upper arms, so he's screwed as well. But that doesn't mean that their position sucks because their back isn't completely horizontal.

I'm pretty sure that wiggins is around 1.90 so he is quite tall, how can he have such an aerodynamic position compared to others? Maybe his legs are longer than other guys and his back is shorter so he can position himself perfectly?

 

[Nesker]

Look how Gesink's position has bettered over the years.

Curious to see how he does in TDS en TDF TT's

 

[roundabout]

I'm not sure I completely understand what you mean - especially with the '*****footing' - but I did actually gain a whole lot of respect for him on last years stage to Galibier - but then he lost most of it again the next day.

Yeah right. He was crawling up the last hundred meters of Alpe d'Huez but you probably wanted to him to do most work in the break or something like that after a 60km attack the previous day.

You losing "respect" the next day shows how much your "respect" is worth.

 

[theyoungest]

Look how Gesink's position has bettered over the years.

Curious to see how he does in TDS en TDF TT's

It doesn't look that smooth in full effort, but it's definitely better than what it used to be.

 

[airstream]

Hehe, I get a buzz out of Roundabout's cool posting style.

Probably, as for TT it boils down to flexibility and ability to put maximum effort being extremely aerodynamic. It does not suit everyone. One can sit perfectly but can't elaborate the necessary power. It is a very complicated compromiss. Though, a factor of mental focus is a lot more important. There are many things we can't describe in words. Before the 2007 Tour Alex Valverde was one of the biggest favorite and there was a real little pr company about his TT improvement. Procycling and some italian magazines published huge analytical materials with the title sort of Alejandro and his 20 changes, but we saw the outcome. Time trialing... One should be born with the brain for that...

 

[karlboss]

Hehe, I get a buzz out of Roundabout's cool posting style.

Probably, as for TT it boils down to flexibility and ability to put maximum effort being extremely aerodynamic. It does not suit everyone. One can sit perfectly but can't elaborate the necessary power. It is a very complicated compromiss. Though, a factor of mental focus is a lot more important.

Have a look at Armstrong through the years, he always won with about the same ease, some years were clearly more about position and others more about power.

 

[airstream]

Have a look at Armstrong through the years, he always won with about the same ease, some years were clearly more about position and others more about power.

But in 2009 there was only position left..

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Yeah right. He was crawling up the last hundred meters of Alpe d'Huez but you probably wanted to him to do most work in the break or something like that after a 60km attack the previous day.

You losing "respect" the next day shows how much your "respect" is worth.

No I didn't.
I just wanted him to participate in the break so that he would have a chance of winning the Tour. The way he did it he didn't stood a chance of winning and it was obvious to anyone.

 

[jilbiker]

None of the above

There should be an option for none of the above. I am going with someone new and unexpected in this TDF.

 

[burning]

No I didn't.
I just wanted him to participate in the break so that he would have a chance of winning the Tour. The way he did it he didn't stood a chance of winning and it was obvious to anyone.

He was still paranoid about Contador although he had more than 4 minutes on him

 

[virandociclista]

the same boredom that prevailed in this year giro.

 

[Bavarianrider]

That picture is such nonsense, it's the front surface that counts. Look at Cadel Evans:

Evans position isn't great. too.
That's why he is great in hilly TTles but not quiet that good in total flat ones.

 

[airstream]

Evans pedals almost cardan. Doubtfully, Honchar needed a perfect position.

 

[The Hitch]

Also keep in mind Evans and Wiggins are much better time trialists than Alberto and will put much more time in Andy.

Wiggins maybe, but not by that much but Evans?

were you being serious.

 

[Old School]

Menchov was my vote....no rhyme or reason...

 

[The Hitch]

So was Gesink, for most of the Tour. I don't think we saw him at his best there.


The first long TT is a problem, he has to be afraid of getting slaughtered there. The second one is more down to recovery, and that's his strong suit.

Isn't the first one hillier though compared to the pan flat final where menchov at least, if he is on form and in contention, might be able to smash it.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Isn't the first one hillier though compared to the pan flat final where menchov at least, if he is on form and in contention, might be able to smash it.

Indeed.
Another thing which shouldn't be forgetten is the fact, that this years final TT does not come directly after the mountains.
There is a flat stage before the final TT. That's better for the bigger guys.

 

[Caruut]

Indeed.
Another thing which shouldn't be forgetten is the fact, that this years final TT does not come directly after the mountains.
There is a flat stage before the final TT. That's better for the bigger guys.

By the same token, people might feel they can attack in the mountains without worrying so much about the next day, making it worse for the big guys.