Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[roundabout]

No I didn't.
I just wanted him to participate in the break so that he would have a chance of winning the Tour. The way he did it he didn't stood a chance of winning and it was obvious to anyone.

So let me get this straight, you lost respect because a rider didn't want to fully commit to a 90k attack after being in a 60k attack the previous day.

Man, you must have really despised the riders in the Giro then.

 

[Panda Claws]

Wiggins maybe, but not by that much but Evans?

were you being serious.

I think Evans and Contador are about equal, with perhaps a very small edge to Evans if the TT is hilly enough.

On second thought Contador will probably have the edge on a pancake flat TT, and of course on a MTT.

 

[theyoungest]

Currently a guy who got 4th in the Tour once has twice as many votes as a guy who has three Tour podium finishes to his name, including the top step last year. A bit rich, no?

 

[Caruut]

Currently a guy who got 4th in the Tour once has twice as many votes as a guy who has three Tour podium finishes to his name, including the top step last year. A bit rich, no?

As if that wasn't enough, they didn't even include a guy with 11 Grand Tour wins on the poll.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Evans position isn't great. too.
That's why he is great in hilly TTles but not quiet that good in total flat ones.

Wow awesome. Tony is a beast. I love him.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I think Evans and Contador are about equal, with perhaps a very small edge to Evans if the TT is hilly enough.

On second thought Contador will probably have the edge on a pancake flat TT, and of course on a MTT.

I would say that Alberto is better on a hilly tt and Evans better on a flat one.

 

[Swabian Lass]

Currently a guy who got 4th in the Tour once has twice as many votes as a guy who has three Tour podium finishes to his name, including the top step last year. A bit rich, no?

Well exactly. I think that Evans has the edge over Wiggins. I'm not saying that Wiggins can't win, on these parcours he can, but I still think that Evans will have the edge.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Wiggins maybe, but not by that much but Evans?

were you being serious.

I was being serious. Just for once my opinion wasn't biased.

 

[airstream]

Again, it's a difficult question. Anyways, often Contador might ride any up 20-25k TT not worse than Evans at least.. Contador is way weaker than Cadel on blown terrain with lots of wind, I'd formulate this way. Annecy TT was routed within the borders of some National park, iirc, and topography itself protected Contador. On the other hand, the 2010 Tour TT seemed the one endless chunk of blown flat. Probably, it was not by chance.

No, you're wrong. It's again biased as you used this argument in order to degrade Andy one more time.

 

[The Hitch]

I was being serious. Just for once my opinion wasn't biased.

It was being biased towards Evans.

Again, it's a difficult question. Anyways, often Contador might ]ride any up 20-25k TT not worse than Evans at least.. Contador is way weaker than Cadel on blown terrain with lots of wind, I'd formulate this way.

Hold his own up to 25k? contador has beaten Evans in 8 of the 9 under 20k tts they have faced eachother in since 2007.

 

[Magnus]

Again, it's a difficult question. Anyways, often Contador might ride any up 20-25k TT not worse than Evans at least.. Contador is way weaker than Cadel on blown terrain with lots of wind, I'd formulate this way. Annecy TT was routed within the borders of some National park, iirc, and topography itself protected Contador. On the other hand, the 2010 Tour TT seemed the one endless chunk of blown flat. Probably, it was not by chance.

In my experience it can be rather windy around the Annecy Lake, much like it can in valleys between mountains. It's like the mountains form a river for the air to flow through.

 

[VeloGirl]

Cringing to say this - but I think Cadel repeats.

Schleck squared doesn't stand a chance - 101k of TT.

Not sure Tony Martin can prevent too much time loss in the mountains, coupled with the fact that he won't gain too much time on Evans in the TTs.

Wiggins - he is a wild card for me. No consistancy. He has a chance to win, but I wouldn't even try to predict that until I see his form - he is day to day for me.

I hope a surprise takes the top podium though. Someone who has a breakout Tour.

 

[airstream]

It was being biased towards Evans.



Hold his own up to 25k? contador has beaten Evans in 8 of the 9 under 20k tts they have faced eachother in since 2007.

Let's not forget this is a Contador's initial specialization whereas Evans always tended to the climbs more. Yes, this is the case, but in terms of the Tour such an argument rather doesn't work. Contador is slightly better in prologues. They are equal at a medium-length TT. And Evans is considerably stronger in a long flat one.

 

[dlwssonic]

are there any hilly TT this year?
Or are they all flat.

 

[dlwssonic]

Currently a guy who got 4th in the Tour once has twice as many votes as a guy who has three Tour podium finishes to his name, including the top step last year. A bit rich, no?

lol yes yes yes.
Wiggins is severely overrated for the GTs.
He is great for those one week stage races with TT though.

 

[airstream]

are there any hilly TT this year?
Or are they all flat.

The first one is hilly.

Though...Generally I don't care. Andy can neither push 3-4% sections using heavier gears nor work out such pieces out of the saddle. The result will be absolutely the same as on flat. Good result surely. )

 

[dlwssonic]

this hilly? or am I being deceived by the profile?

 

[airstream]

this hilly? or am I being deceived by the profile?

Hm, sorry, I replied based on rumors than circulated in autumn yet. It doesn't really have a special height difference.. Hills are pretty sloping. But by all appearances it includes some short steep sectors too.

 

[burning]

this hilly? or am I being deceived by the profile?

Well road rises here and there, could be considered as hilly TT

 

[LaFlorecita]

No, you're wrong. It's again biased as you used this argument in order to degrade Andy one more time.

Yeah because that's always my one and only goal..

 

[dlwssonic]

Well road rises here and there, could be considered as hilly TT

good for evans then!

 

[dlwssonic]

evans just has to remain aggressive in the mountains and ensure he does not rely on his TT too much.
With this and without bad luck he really has a great chance of winning.

 

[The Hitch]

Let's not forget this is a Contador's initial specialization whereas Evans always tended to the climbs more.

So you admit you were wrong when 2 pages ago you said contador could maybe hold his own in a short tt.

Now you aknowldge that was total false and make a 180 degree turn.

Well i guess its ygood to see you are on occasion willing to change your opinion when you see the facts.

s, this is the case, but in terms of the Tour such an argument rather doesn't work. Contador is slightly better in prologues. They are equal at a medium-length TT. And Evans is considerably stronger in a long flat one.

Based on what ? You and others just keep writing "Evans is stronger" " Evans is stronger"

The first discussion of this proved that it was a theory based entirely on the assumption that a bigger rider will logically be stronger than a smaller one and not on any actual results.

 

[johnnycash]

lol yes yes yes.
Wiggins is severely overrated for the GTs.
He is great for those one week stage races with TT though.

Ever heard the expression 'you're only as good as your last race'? Neither Cadel or Andy have shown the form in 2012 that they did in previous years when that had good tdf's. Perhaps they will in the Dauphine though.

This forum said before that Wiggins was a one -hit wonder (2009 tdf), then he could only TT, now its that he can actually win GC's but only in one week races if the guy does win the tour this year, I bet it'll be 'anyone would win with at team, or the parcours was too easy, or perhaps even put down to Contadors absence?

 

[dlwssonic]

Ever heard the expression 'you're only as good as your last race'? Neither Cadel or Andy have shown the form in 2012 that they did in previous years when that had good tdf's. Perhaps they will in the Dauphine though.

This forum said before that Wiggins was a one -hit wonder (2009 tdf), then he could only TT, now its that he can actually win GC's but only in one week races if the guy does win the tour this year, I bet it'll be 'anyone would win with at team, or the parcours was too easy, or perhaps even put down to Contadors absence?

lol This is obviously not true for Andy, he is always crap before the tdf. And performs well in the tdf. Cadel is right on track. He performed great at the criterium, but was hampered by the infection at romandie. He might not be as strong in the dauphine but he will be good for the tour. I am pretty sure evans will be suffering and pulling faces at the dauphine.

You know tony martin won PN and he easily could have won romandie this year.
Does that mean he can win the tdf???
This races don't mean **** about winning the tdf, they just have easier hilly stages with a TT.
Even if wiggins wins the dauphine, it won't change my view of him, because everybody else will be in training mode and will not have the form.
He still has not showed enough in a GT to be considered a favorite IMO