Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[hughmoore]

It's not balanced, too many itt km far too little credible options for climbers

If Contador was still racing, the TT length would not matter. Reality is the climbers need to learn how to improve there all around riding or go for the Poka Dot. I think thats why they call it GC.


Hugh

 

[guncha]

I disagree. It just means he's not a top 5 climber. He has struggled in the mountains before and got 4th overall. This time the Tour is more TT heavy. You can't just assume he'll fade or crack at a later stage. Look where it got Purito.

If a few guys can put half a minute into Wiggins on the Grand Colombier, things could get interesting. They would have to race it hard, though.

If Wiggins will have problems staying with the best/will be dropped on a stage where the Colombier is the only major climb and far from finish, what he will do when the stage will have multiple 1st cat and H.C. climbs? Bad day on the Colombier will mean the rider is out of form and no factor in the race.

 

[will10]

The Grand Colombier stage is so poorly designed that it won't matter if Wiggins is dropped there, UK Postal will bring him back to the front comfortably

 

[airstream]

The Grand Colombier stage is so poorly designed that it won't matter if Wiggins is dropped there, UK Postal will bring him back to the front comfortably

If a rider can't keep the pace uphill, no train will save him because there will be 20-30 guys at the top of the Grand Colombier. That's not the matter of a bad day, if one is not among these 20-30, he's not prepared well fundamentally. Yea, they would bring him back to the group but it would be an anticipatory white flag before La Toussuire stage.

 

[Bavarianrider]

For those of you complaining about the stage to Toussuire.

This loos almost the same as the 1997 stage to Courchevel. That stage was 140km, too, had Madeleine and Glandon, too, and Curchevel instead of Toussuire. Those two climbs are very similar.
And that stage back in 1997 turned out to be one of the most epic mountauin stages in modern Tour history. So please stop complaining, if you realy try, this stage offers lots of chances.

It's on youtube almost in full length.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCijUZvvESc
1. Richard Virenque (Fra) FES 4.34.16 (avs. 32,3 km/h)
2. Jan Ullrich (Ger) TEL s.t.
3. Fernando Escartin (Spa) KEL 0.47
4. Laurent Dufaux (Swi) FES 1.19
5. Bjarne Riis (Dan) TEL 1.24
6. Marco Pantani (Ita) MER 3.06
7. Francesco Casagrande (Ita) SAE 3.36
8. Jose Maria Jimenez (Spa) BAN 3.50
9. Abraham Olano (Spa) BAN 3.50
10. Roberto Conti (Ita) MER 4.41
11. Peter Luttenberger (Aut) RAB 7.13
12. Pascal Lino (Fra) BIG 8.01
13. Hernan Buenahora (Col) KEL 10.25
14. Beat Zberg (Swi) MER 10.58
15. Udo Bolts (Ger) TEL 10.58
16. Oskar Camenzind (Swi) MAP 11.10
17. Marco Fincato (Ita) ROS 12.14
18. Bobby Julich (USA) COF 12.14
19. Michael Boogerd (Ned) RAB 12.57
20. Christophe Moreau (Fra) FES 12.57
21. Manuel Beltran (Spa) BAN 13.21
22. Jean-Cyril Robin (Fra) USP 13.51
23. Stephane Heulot (Fra) FDJ 13.51
24. Didier Rous (Fra) FES 15.57
25. Peter Farazijn (Bel) LOT 16.26
26. Angel Casero (Spa) BAN 18.56
27. Georg Totschnig (Aut) TEL 21.10
28. Patrick Jonker (Aus) RAB 23.00
29. Anthony Morin (Fra) BIG 23.00
30. Andrea Tafi (Ita) MAP 23.05

 

[dlwssonic]

The Grand Colombier stage is so poorly designed that it won't matter if Wiggins is dropped there, UK Postal will bring him back to the front comfortably

But they aren't as strong in the high mountains as they look.
Rogers and porte are not great in the mountains.

 

[Eshnar]

For those of you complaining about the stage to Toussuire.

This loos almost the same as the 1997 stage to Courchevel. That stage was 140km, too, had Madeleine and Glandon, too, and Curchevel instead of Toussuire. Those two climbs are very similar.
And that stage back in 1997 turned out to be one of the most epic mountauin stages in modern Tour history. So please stop complaining, if you realy try, this stage offers lots of chances.

It's on youtube almost in full length.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCijUZvvESc
1. Richard Virenque (Fra) FES 4.34.16 (avs. 32,3 km/h)
2. Jan Ullrich (Ger) TEL s.t.
3. Fernando Escartin (Spa) KEL 0.47
4. Laurent Dufaux (Swi) FES 1.19
5. Bjarne Riis (Dan) TEL 1.24
6. Marco Pantani (Ita) MER 3.06
7. Francesco Casagrande (Ita) SAE 3.36
8. Jose Maria Jimenez (Spa) BAN 3.50
9. Abraham Olano (Spa) BAN 3.50
10. Roberto Conti (Ita) MER 4.41
11. Peter Luttenberger (Aut) RAB 7.13
12. Pascal Lino (Fra) BIG 8.01
13. Hernan Buenahora (Col) KEL 10.25
14. Beat Zberg (Swi) MER 10.58
15. Udo Bolts (Ger) TEL 10.58
16. Oskar Camenzind (Swi) MAP 11.10
17. Marco Fincato (Ita) ROS 12.14
18. Bobby Julich (USA) COF 12.14
19. Michael Boogerd (Ned) RAB 12.57
20. Christophe Moreau (Fra) FES 12.57
21. Manuel Beltran (Spa) BAN 13.21
22. Jean-Cyril Robin (Fra) USP 13.51
23. Stephane Heulot (Fra) FDJ 13.51
24. Didier Rous (Fra) FES 15.57
25. Peter Farazijn (Bel) LOT 16.26
26. Angel Casero (Spa) BAN 18.56
27. Georg Totschnig (Aut) TEL 21.10
28. Patrick Jonker (Aus) RAB 23.00
29. Anthony Morin (Fra) BIG 23.00
30. Andrea Tafi (Ita) MAP 23.05

in '97 cycling was a bit different.
You've seen this year stage to Lago Laceno... compare it to '98.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

If Wiggins will have problems staying with the best/will be dropped on a stage where the Colombier is the only major climb and far from finish, what he will do when the stage will have multiple 1st cat and H.C. climbs? Bad day on the Colombier will mean the rider is out of form and no factor in the race.

Wiggins has always struggled on steep sections. The Colombier has a few of those, so it's possible to put him under pressure there IF they have the guts to do so.

It's a possibility. I'm not saying it will happen. Presumably airstream's scenario will play out, but that is not what I'm talking about. You act like Wiggins can't be distanced on a single climb if he has the form to podium. I disagree. Anyone but the very best climbers can be distanced there. Just based on climbing ability alone. You don't need super hard stages for that at all.

It's quite simple: if Wiggins can be distanced on stage 8, which has a single 2nd category MTF (upgraded to 1st category) he can definitely get distanced on the Grand Colombier.

If they race every mountain stage hard, then yeah, he'll have a problem. Stages 11 and 17 alone may not be enough to keep Wiggins from winning the Tour, though.

The Grand Colombier stage is so poorly designed that it won't matter if Wiggins is dropped there, UK Postal will bring him back to the front comfortably

The design is great, IMO. From foot of the Grand Colombier onwards, that is. It's one of the best designed stages this year, IMO. It sucks that it precedes the only Alpine stage, though.

As for Sky bringing him back, Wiggins is arguably the best climber on the SKY Tour team, with the possible exception of Froome, who hasn't done much since the Vuelta.

 

[Ferminal]

The design is great, IMO. From foot of the Grand Colombier onwards, that is. It's one of the best designed stages this year, IMO. It sucks that it precedes the only Alpine stage, though.

No Biche is an opportunity lost.

 

[roundabout]

With only 1 2nd cat climb before and a couple of sections after GC where it will be relatively easy for a big group to gain time it's certainly not that great.

 

[roundabout]

Regarding the "difficulty" of the route, sure there are 25 climbs. 10 of them are second category no matter what the ASO says and 2 1st cat climbs have zero point zero, zero, zero percent relevance on GC.

 

[cineteq]

Regarding the "difficulty" of the route, sure there are 25 climbs. 10 of them are second category no matter what the ASO says and 2 1st cat climbs have zero point zero, zero, zero percent relevance on GC.

You always seem to forget to start your sentences with IMHO, just sayin'

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

With only 1 2nd cat climb before and a couple of sections after GC where it will be relatively easy for a big group to gain time it's certainly not that great.

Chances are it's going to be another borefest of epic proportions, but there isn't that much false flat between the summit and the finish line. A small group can probably limit their losses on those sections, and why not, take some more time on the 3rd category climb and in the descents.

 

[roundabout]

You always seem to forget to start your sentences with IMHO, just sayin'

No, I don't since I never claim to post anything else but opinions.

So, do you have anything else "relevant" to add to the discussion?

 

[Ferminal]

Chances are it's going to be another borefest of epic proportions, but there isn't that much false flat between the summit and the finish line. A small group can probably limit their losses on those sections, and why not, take some more time on the 3rd category climb and in the descents.

I'm not sure Richemond is hard enough for a big group not to win back time on a smaller group. I like your optimism though!

 

[cineteq]

No, I don't since I never claim to post anything else but opinions.

You word your postings as if they were *facts*, hence my comment. Some newbies might take your comments too seriously when in fact they were just your opinion.

So, do you have anything else "relevant" to add to the discussion?

Not at the moment.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

I think it's hilarious Wiggins gets most votes when he's never showed to be able to climb well enough to win a GT.

Sure he has a shot if they don't race enough in the mountains.....

 

[hoerpi]

I'm not sure Richemond is hard enough for a big group not to win back time on a smaller group. I like your optimism though!

I think that depends on the group breaking out on grand colombière. If Samu, Andy and Cadel is in that group together with some other decent guys they may give it a go. It would be lovely if that's the situation in July

 

[Magnus]

I think it's hilarious Wiggins gets most votes when he's never showed to be able to climb well enough to win a GT.

If you mean in the sense that he has won a GT you're obviously right, but he showed pretty good climbing skills at last year's Vuelta (though not consistently).

 

[dlwssonic]

I think it's hilarious Wiggins gets most votes when he's never showed to be able to climb well enough to win a GT.

Sure he has a shot if they don't race enough in the mountains.....

Agreed I don't get it too.

 

[Magnus]

No Biche is an opportunity lost.

But if they did use it they would get a 20 km flat run in to Bellegarde sur Valserine after the descent, which I think we can all agree isn't ideal.

Col de Richemond seems like a pretty fair battleground between a frontgroup and some chasers.

 

[cineteq]

Agreed I don't get it too.

It's a combination of hype and the overwhelming number of UK forum members - i suggested that wiggins percentage be multiplied by 0.3 to reflect accuracy

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

If you mean in the sense that he has won a GT you're obviously right, but he showed pretty good climbing skills at last year's Vuelta (though not consistently).

Good enough to get third in a poor field, not to win a GT.

Off course he hadn't had an ideal preparation, crashing out of the TDF and all, but if he get's outclimbed by Cobo, Froome and Mollema he's in for a hell when he has to face Schleck, Samu, JVDB, Gesink, Nibali etc. all looking to gain time in the mountains. They will kill Wiggins in the mountains if he doesn't climb a whole lot better than last Vuelta.

Again, if they don't race too hard in the mountains Wiggins has a chance... but by no means has he showed anything in the mountains ever to make him a TDF contender. He only deserves to be mentioned because of the unbalanced amount of TT.

 

[roundabout]

It's a combination of hype and the overwhelming number of UK forum members - i suggested that wiggins percentage be multiplied by 0.3 to reflect accuracy

you forgot imho...

And maybe you should check who actually voted for Wiggins

 

[karlboss]

It's a combination of hype and the overwhelming number of UK forum members - i suggested that wiggins percentage be multiplied by 0.3 to reflect accuracy

3 form riders, wiggins, sanchez, nibali.
Tour suits wiggins more than the other 2 hence he's got loads of votes.

Evans, Menchov and Schleck would surely be outdoing him, if they'd shown something this season. But the first 2 have had health problems. The 3rd has been off, even further off than most expect for a one month wonder.