Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Dekker_Tifosi]

It's almost scary how focused Wiggins seems to be. Big favorite imo.

Well that's the part that is the least scary to me. Believe you me that guys like Evans, Van den Broeck, Nibali, Gesink, Sanchez, Menchov etc are at least as focused as he is.

Wiggins bragged about his 100.000 height meters at altitude. Well guess what, the rest have been doing that too. Altitude training is what almost every GC contender does right now. And they all make the same crazy height meters as Wiggins. So if he thinks he is at an advantage in training hard, I doubt that.

I believe Wiggins can win this Tour because of 2 long time trials and a lack of good climbing stages. Yes there might be 25 categorized climbs. But the ones that are
1) Well-placed for an attack
2) AND hard enough for an attack

are very few... So not much opportunity to win back time on Wiggins/Evans.

 

[roundabout]

Do you seriously believe anybody would attack at Grand Colombier with Biche still to come?

Even with Biche to come I would say there would be a bigger selection than on the classic side from Culoz with Richemond remaining.

 

[airstream]

Post please an exact Grand Colombier profile

 

[Magnus]

Post please an exact Grand Colombier profile

http://letmegooglethat.com/?q=grand+colombier+profile

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Post please an exact Grand Colombier profile

 

[Forunculo]

Post please an exact Grand Colombier profile

Andy doesn't like huge gradients

 

[airstream]

Thanks. I just didn't know what road they climb on. Great mountain, but I don't think riders will take a risk. It's a pity La Toussuire is on the next day otherwise they could try.

Andy doesn't like huge gradients

Andy set a Zoncolan world record lol On a serious note the others hate steep gradients even more. Wiggins will skid there as though tarmac is a quagmire.

 

[jens_attacks]

if this stage is after the rest day,andy will go here....he has to...otherwise no tour win
probably again two radioshack sent up the road
on this climb,the differences can be huge if you attack straight at the beginning

 

[theyoungest]

Well that's the part that is the least scary to me. Believe you me that guys like Evans, Van den Broeck, Nibali, Gesink, Sanchez, Menchov etc are at least as focused as he is.

Wiggins bragged about his 100.000 height meters at altitude. Well guess what, the rest have been doing that too. Altitude training is what almost every GC contender does right now. And they all make the same crazy height meters as Wiggins. So if he thinks he is at an advantage in training hard, I doubt that.

I believe Wiggins can win this Tour because of 2 long time trials and a lack of good climbing stages. Yes there might be 25 categorized climbs. But the ones that are
1) Well-placed for an attack
2) AND hard enough for an attack

are very few... So not much opportunity to win back time on Wiggins/Evans.

You gotta say that none of the contenders have really had such a perfect buildup as Wiggins... not concerning himself with the classics, only riding stage races (and winning them) and altitude training in between, no major mishaps (that we've heard about). What we've seen so far doesn't mean much with respect to GT racing, but at least things have been going pretty well for Wiggins.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Andy set a Zoncolan world record lol On a serious note the others hate steep gradients even more. Wiggins will skid there as though tarmac is a quagmire.

I've never been much of a Schleck fan, and especially since last TDF I even disliked him...

Nevertheless, I think I shall be cheering for him this TDF, hoping he will give the TTists a hell in the mountains!!

He showed he knows how to on the Galibier stage last year, let's hope he pulls something like that off again.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

if this stage is after the rest day,andy will go here....he has to...otherwise no tour win
probably again two radioshack sent up the road
on this climb,the differences can be huge if you attack straight at the beginning

exactly

Thanks. I just didn't know what road they climb on. Great mountain, but I don't think riders will take a risk. It's a pity La Toussuire is on the next day otherwise they could try.

Andy set a Zoncolan world record lol On a serious note the others hate steep gradients even more. Wiggins will stick there as though tarmac is a quagmire.

LOL indeed. Wiggins hates that stuff. I hope RSNT will put the pressure on, or Wiggo will be as fresh as a daisy for La Toussuire.

 

[Poursuivant]

I think this years tour is wide open, especially bearing in mind there is always someone who isnt as good as expected and always someone who is better than expected. I expect Sanchez and Nibali to gain time on the descents. I expect Schleck to have a big long mad attack. I expect Wiggins and Evans to be relatively well matched on the climbs. I expect Gesink and VDB to feature heavily too. Looking forward to it already!

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I've never been much of a Schleck fan, and especially since last TDF I even disliked him...

Nevertheless, I think I shall be cheering for him this TDF, hoping he will give the TTists a hell in the mountains!!

He showed he knows how to on the Galibier stage last year, let's hope he pulls something like that off again.

If Evans rode for a team capable of providing any support at all, Andy wouldn't even have won the stage, let alone got GC benefit there. He'll need a performance better than that to achieve the same result this year.

 

[airstream]

if this stage is after the rest day,andy will go here....he has to...otherwise no tour win
probably again two radioshack sent up the road
on this climb,the differences can be huge if you attack straight at the beginning

Sky won't let Shack go into breakaway and Andy cannot work alone 40k after the top of the Colombier. Besides, 4 raids (this, Toussuire and 2 in the Pyreenees) can be too difficult even for him. It would be stupid to go full blast on the Grand Colombier stage and then defend on La Toussuire. But anyways he will try 1-2 quite serious pulls, I think.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

If Evans rode for a team capable of providing any support at all, Andy wouldn't even have won the stage, let alone got GC benefit there. He'll need a performance better than that to achieve the same result this year.

Last year there was a valley and a huge stretch of false-flat in which a team might have caught Schleck back, there are several stages in this TDF where the two last climbs have almost no valley in between them - or at least that is what it looks like on the profiles.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Last year there was a valley and a huge stretch of false-flat in which a team might have caught Schleck back, there are several stages in this TDF where the two last climbs have almost no valley in between them - or at least that is what it looks like on the profiles.

He's still no superman, and if a team behind is able to set a steady solid pace he's going to struggle to get a sufficient gap.

He lost over 2 minutes to the favourites in the last 10km on Galibier.

 

[theyoungest]

If Evans rode for a team capable of providing any support at all, Andy wouldn't even have won the stage, let alone got GC benefit there. He'll need a performance better than that to achieve the same result this year.

I seem to remember BMC did ride on the front for Evans on that stage? Yes, he didn't have any teammates left on the Galibier, but who really did (apart from the Europcar robots)

He's still no superman, and if a team behind is able to set a steady solid pace he's going to struggle to get a sufficient gap.

He lost over 2 minutes to the favourites in the last 10km on Galibier.

That's only logical, in these clean(er) times. It's physically impossible to keep a steady gap if you've been riding in front for the last 30+ kms.

 

[The Hitch]

Andy doesn't like huge gradients

Huge gradients? I don't see anything special in that profile.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I seem to remember BMC did ride on the front for Evans on that stage? Yes, he didn't have any teammates left on the Galibier, but who really did (apart from the Europcar robots)


That's only logical, in these clean(er) times. It's physically impossible to keep a steady gap if you've been riding in front for the last 30+ kms.

I'm not saying they didn't ride - I'm saying they didn't ride quickly enough.

And on the 2nd one, I don't blame Andy for that, I am simply trying to point out the grand plans for him gaining many minutes are more like pipe dreams than reasoned plans.

 

[theyoungest]

And on the 2nd one, I don't blame Andy for that, I am simply trying to point out the grand plans for him gaining many minutes are more like pipe dreams than reasoned plans.

We could see a scenario like in 2010 on the... was it the Madeleine? Where Contador and Schleck rode off into the sunset together. The top of the climb was at 30 k from the finish or something.

All we need is someone to fill in for Contador

 

[airstream]

Huge gradients? I don't see anything special in that profile.

Even 1k at 10% is an event for the Tour and probably only a few climbs have such sections.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Sky won't let Shack go into breakaway and Andy cannot work alone 40k after the top of the Colombier. Besides, 4 raids (this, Toussuire and 2 in the Pyreenees) can be too difficult even for him. It would be stupid to go full blast on the Grand Colombier stage and then defend on La Toussuire. But anyways he will try 1-2 quite serious pulls, I think.

He could attack with Cobo.

I think an attack on the Croix de Fer is riskier. He'll lose tons of time on La Toussuire if there's a sizeable group behind him.

There's only 1 serious opportunity in the Pyrenees anyway.

 

[Forunculo]

Huge gradients? I don't see anything special in that profile.

For Tour de France it is and I was remember his excuses about the climb gradients at the pyrenees

 

[airstream]

He could attack with Cobo.

I think an attack on the Croix de Fer is riskier. He'll lose tons of time on La Toussuire if there's a sizeable group behind him.

There's only 1 serious opportunity in the Pyrenees anyway.

For sure!! Haha, it would be great to see Andy with Juanjo destoying the field.

But unlike the Grand Colombier stage, if Wiggins drops on Croix de Fer, he won't already rejoin with big guns. Hopefully, a natural course of the race will help to eliminate Wiggins cos it would be really dangerous if Menchov, Evans and the others will be at his climbing level. Then Andy will have to do entire work all alone.

 

[Forunculo]

We could see a scenario like in 2010 on the... was it the Madeleine? Where Contador and Schleck rode off into the sunset together. The top of the climb was at 30 k from the finish or something.

All we need is someone to fill in for Contador

Cobo, Valverde, Rolland, Samuel Sanchez...

I think an outsider has a chance with a silly breakaway if the core GC riders are marking themselves