Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[airstream]

Probably only overplaying PCM could engender some skepticism regarding Evans' riding on the Galibier. Yes, he could not drop Rolland and Voeckler (4th and 5th climbers of the race). But have you ever seen how one drops everybody with only self-perpetuating 10k pull? Damn, they are men rathen than bots.

The man could have dropped both Voeckler and Rolland if had helped him. But Evans realized this could break down his own rhythm and negatively affect on the stage result so he preffered a steady pace, so he calculated this situation masterly. That was upper-class on his part.

 

[Walkman]

Wow. You know just how rare Evans is on the front of a road race when his fans are making a big deal of the fact that there is wind. As if all the other contenders bar Frank didn't spent lots of time in the wind too. Wtf was Andy doing?

Yes, I am very well aware of the fact that Evans isn't the most attacking rider. But this isn't about whether or not Evans is often at the front, this is about one particular stage and about one particular performance.

So yes, all the other contenders bar Andy, didn't spent lots of time in the wind. In fact, as I recall Vockler was the only one who hit tre front after Evans attacked and that was like less than 30 seconds.

My post makes no sense because you think Voeckler and Rolland are top top level gt contenders?

Just how high do you rate Voeckler? On par with, Frank, Gesink, Sanchez, Nibali, Menchov?

Vockler and Rolland are not yet top level GT-contenders but neither was Hejsedal before this Giro, imho. And just look at Gadret at the -11 Giro. Subtract the time Nibali took on Gadret on the time trials and Gadret is pretty darn close to Niabli. Does that mean Niabli did a crappy Giro last year? Does it means Nibali climbing is in fact less impressive?

My point being, you don't have to be on par with the top dogs such as "Frank, Gesink, Sanchez, Nibali, Menchov" to preform like them from time to time. I do very much doubt that Nibali, Menchov or Gesink (if Gesink was healthy last year) would have climbed much better than Roland last year. Perhaps a bit more consistent but then again, we don't know how good Rolland really was since he had to drag around Vockler during the first weeks.

If you think it makes no sense to suggest he doesn't belong with the heads of state on the queen state of a gt, then presumably you see Voeckler as 1 of the top handful of gt riders around, who should be listed as a major contender for any grand tour he enters.

I do think it makes no sense since he was climbing so well last year. I am not suggesting that he will be doing it this year too but I don't think one should try diminish someones performance because this or that rider was able to keep up.

 

[The Hitch]

He has a point. Menchov was the only one of the podium that was in the front group.

Then the Tour would have been raced differently. That was stage 2, god knows what would have happened on the remaining 18

 

[DenisMenchov]

Then the Tour would have been raced differently. That was stage 2, god knows what would have happened on the remaining 18

Well maybe only Ax 3 Domain would be raced differently. But Andy was more than 3 minutes down when Gesink, Freire and Menchov were at the front of the peloton.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Well maybe only Ax 3 Domain would be raced differently. But Andy was more than 3 minutes down when Gesink, Freire and Menchov were at the front of the peloton.

rabo should have rode with some balls and just gone for it, screw this neutralizing bs.

... but they didnt.

 

[DenisMenchov]

rabo should have rode with some balls and just gone for it, screw this neutralizing bs.

... but they didnt.

I can't agree more.

 

[hrotha]

rabo should have rode with some balls and just gone for it, screw this neutralizing bs.

... but they didnt.

Didn't their DS tell them to ride, but they didn't wanna?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Then the Tour would have been raced differently. That was stage 2, god knows what would have happened on the remaining 18

True that.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Andy lost 28 seconds to Wiggo... over 5.7km... will be interesting to see how he goes in the long tt...

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Didn't their DS tell them to ride, but they didn't wanna?

I cant remember exactly, I thought they wanted to ride but felt it an unwise move or something.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Andy lost 28 seconds to Wiggo... over 5.7km... will be interesting to see how he goes in the long tt...

We all know how hard Ady does his best outside of the TDF. He was 147th last year in the prologue in Suisse.

Maybe he'll go for the mountain jersey now in the Dauphine, like last year in Suisse?

Although he is riding even more crap this season that previous seasons

 

[Forunculo]

I'm pretty sure this tour won't be time trialist vs climber, but cowards vs brave riders, and my brave winner is Vincenzo Nibali.

 

[will10]

It's funny, I was sure he had more than five cards. Must be an optical illusion.

 

[The Hitch]

Well maybe only Ax 3 Domain would be raced differently. But Andy was more than 3 minutes down when Gesink, Freire and Menchov were at the front of the peloton.

Contador would still have won. Hell going by the butterfly theory, maybe he would not have got the clen test even.

As for who would have come 2nd - what you seem to think is automatic victory, ignoring the above, you can't possibly know what would have happened on the remaining stages. Maybe the pope would have crashed. Its not like hes never done that before.

rabo should have rode with some balls and just gone for it, screw this neutralizing bs.

... but they didnt.

Yeah i agree. Would have been brilliant if they had.

This was 1 of those times where there was a very clear right - rider and say **** you to cancellara, and a very clear wrong - Cancellara.

 

[The Hitch]

I'm pretty sure this tour won't be time trialist vs climber, but cowards vs brave riders, and my brave winner is Vincenzo Nibali.

lol. very nicely done there.

the effort payed off.

 

[guncha]

Wiggins has always struggled on steep sections. The Colombier has a few of those, so it's possible to put him under pressure there IF they have the guts to do so.

It's a possibility. I'm not saying it will happen. Presumably airstream's scenario will play out, but that is not what I'm talking about. You act like Wiggins can't be distanced on a single climb if he has the form to podium. I disagree. Anyone but the very best climbers can be distanced there. Just based on climbing ability alone. You don't need super hard stages for that at all.

It's quite simple: if Wiggins can be distanced on stage 8, which has a single 2nd category MTF (upgraded to 1st category) he can definitely get distanced on the Grand Colombier.

I am not saying Wiggins can't be distanced on a single climb if he has the form to podium. I am saying that it won't happen on Colombier because due to Colombier's location it won't be ridden in tempo of MTF/HC less than 25km to finish. BTW, I forgot to mention that Pau-Lourdes stage of TDF 11 had Aubisque (16.4km at 7.1%) 42.5 km before finish and MJ group consisted of 52 (!) riders at finish. Realistically, group of favorites will have 20-30 riders at the top of Colombier; everyone outside of this group won't be factor in the race.

As far as La Planche des Belles Filles is concerned - everyone will be fresh, climb is too short to make big time gaps. 15, 20 or 30 seconds won't say anything about the race and those who lost some seconds should be able to get minutes in stages 11,16,17. If they are in form of course...

 

[Night Rider]

With only 3 summit finishes and 101 km of time trial, who do you think will win it all in July?

If Leipheimer hadn't have broken his leg I would have liked to have seen him turn this years race into even more of farce than it already will be. Not because I like him but it really is a sad situation when Wigan starts as near equal favorite.

So maybe (and all hope here) Menchov? Or Gesink? Would be happy with either of those two.

 

[El Pistolero]

If Wiggins wins, fair and square, he won't be a farce winner. Still enough stages where the pure climbers can distance guys like Wiggins. The ball is in their camp. If they fail to ride aggressively then they will have been a farce and not Wiggins.

 

[Caruut]

If Wiggins wins, fair and square, he won't be a farce winner. Still enough stages where the pure climbers can distance guys like Wiggins. The ball is in their camp. If they fail to ride aggressively then they will have been a farce and not Wiggins.

Really good, concise summary, I think.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If Wiggins wins, fair and square, he won't be a farce winner. Still enough stages where the pure climbers can distance guys like Wiggins. The ball is in their camp. If they fail to ride aggressively then they will have been a farce and not Wiggins.

To some extent, but is is undeniable that the course plays against their chances.

Modern day racing, the more i think on this, the more i think wiggo may win.
But I still believe he will falter on the longer, multiple climb stages.

If he decides to not follow, ride his own tempo and avoid cracking then his TT should prove sufficient to win it. Hopefully evans comes in form tho, wiggo might fear cuddles and send himself into overload.

 

[norwegian]

If Wiggins wins, fair and square, he won't be a farce winner. Still enough stages where the pure climbers can distance guys like Wiggins. The ball is in their camp. If they fail to ride aggressively then they will have been a farce and not Wiggins.

Fair and square; that is always the problem in these discussions.

 

[El Pistolero]

To some extent, but is is undeniable that the course plays against their chances.

Modern day racing, the more i think on this, the more i think wiggo may win.
But I still believe he will falter on the longer, multiple climb stages.

If he decides to not follow, ride his own tempo and avoid cracking then his TT should prove sufficient to win it. Hopefully evans comes in form tho, wiggo might fear cuddles and send himself into overload.

Could only make the climbers more desperate to gain back time in the few mountain stages there are. I would have rather seen an extra mountain stage, but it is what it is. The climbers know what to do and if they do as I hope this will be a very interesting race to watch.

Remember in 2007 when everyone thought the time trial specialists like Menchov, Evans, Vinokourov or Leipheimer would win? In the end a pure climber won: Rasmussen or Contador. And yes, I realize Contador can do good time trials now, but that wasn't the case in 2007. Of course the 2007 route was more mountainous than this year's route, but it still favored the time trial specialists.

 

[Caruut]

I think one has to weigh the quantity of the mountain stages against their quality. At least in this Tour, there really should be action on all the climbs.

 

[Panda Claws]

 

[Havetts]

Lets hope Samu's injuries are not Tour threatening