Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[roundabout]

No, being the biggest favorite doesn't necessarily mean that he is almost certain to win it. Just that he is more likely to win than anyone of the others.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

i think he will almost certainly be at the podium and has a slim chance to win, but a chance none the less.

There's nothing almost certain about his podium.

there is nothing almost certain about wiggins win, but it isn't stopping a lot of people from saying he is the biggest favorite.

just a question of opinions.

Petard, hoisted, own, by.

 

[Lanark]

This stage too

I'm not sure. 35km from the top of the Croix the Fer to La Toussuire is very long, even though there is a little bump halway the descent. And La Toussuire is a really, really poor climb. Someone going alone on that against a group with some some teammates in it won't stand much of a chance. I have little hope for that stage.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I'm not sure. 35km from the top of the Croix the Fer to La Toussuire is very long, even though there is a little bump halway the descent. And La Toussuire is a really, really poor climb. Someone going alone on that against a group with some some teammates in it won't stand much of a chance. I have little hope for that stage.

And Schleck descends like a tool.

 

[airstream]

I'm not sure. 35km from the top of the Croix the Fer to La Toussuire is very long, even though there is a little bump halway the descent. And La Toussuire is a really, really poor climb. Someone going alone on that against a group with some some teammates in it won't stand much of a chance. I have little hope for that stage.

It's an ok climb with a shelf in the middle and lots of sections at 7-8%. I can imagine a monumental TT within the framework of a road stage: Papy Horner-Klodi-Franky-Andy.

 

[LaFlorecita]

It's an ok climb with a shelf in the middle and lots of sections at 7-8%. I can imagine a monumental TT within the framework of a road stage: Papy Horner-Klodi-Franky-Andy.

Fränkie and Andy in a monumental tt?

 

[Lanark]

It's an ok climb with a shelf in the middle and lots of sections at 7-8%. I can imagine a monumental TT within the framework of a road stage: Papy Horner-Klodi-Franky-Andy.

7-8% max is hardly scary though. La Toussuire for the most part is barely more than a false flat highway.

It is a perfect day to have some guys like Horner or Klöden (exhange them for some domestiques from other teams if necessary) in a long break so they can help in the last climb if you try to solo from the Croix the Fer. If you wait untill the last climb to make a difference, it'll probably end in a 6-men sprint or something.

 

[Leonardus]

There is a lot of faith in Wiggo but when has he showed the climbing abilities needed to follow Schleck, Evans, Menchov, Sanchez or Gesink in the mountain stages (apart from tdf 2009)? I believe Wiggo will do very well in the time trials but in the mountain stages the best climbers will eventually crush him. Evans and Menchov have a much better chance, and of course they have proven they can win a gt.

 

[airstream]

7-8% max is hardly scary though. La Toussuire for the most part is barely more than a false flat highway.

It is a perfect day to have some guys like Horner or Klöden (exhange them for some domestiques from other teams if necessary) in a long break so they can help in the last climb if you try to solo from the Croix the Fer. If you wait untill the last climb to make a difference, it'll probably end in a 6-men sprint or something.

Certainly it is nothing compared the Giro climbs. But the Tour climbs don't require steepness because a racing itself provides a crazed intensity and riders can be dropped simply at the expense of high average speed set during the whole stage. In addition, as far as I understand, all alpine finish climbs but Alpe-d'Huez have similar to La Toussuire characteristics but always gave the gaps.

I highly doubt Bruyneel may sacrifice Klodi so early. He will have Andreas up his sleeve until it turns out to be that the German is not strong enough [if it happens]. Haimar, Maxime, Jacob, Frankie... They'll feed the fire on Croix de Fer. It is a perfect tactical building.

 

[The Hitch]

If Schleck manage to win this Tour, at least it will be fully deserved. If he wins, we will have witnessed some great racing in the mountains.

Or Samu crashes, Wiggins cracks, Menchov doesn't recover in time for the Tour (all perfectly possible) and Schleck beats Evans by doing a signature Schleck Cancellara screwjob to take a few underserved minutes, then races like J rod in the mountains attacking in the last 3k to take 30s here 25s there.

 

[Lanark]

Certainly it is nothing compared the Giro climbs. But the Tour climbs don't require steepness because a racing itself provides a crazed intensity and riders can be dropped simply at the expense of high average speed set during the whole stage. In addition, as far as I understand, all alpine finish climbs but Alpe-d'Huez have similar to La Toussuire characteristics but always gave the gaps.

A crazed intensity? Didn't see much of that on Luz-Ardiden, Morzine-Avoriaz, Arcalis or Tignes. The first MTF has mostly been a joke in the last couple of Tours. And no, Alpe D'Huez and La Toussuire aren't alike at all. Alpe D'Huez is a full average 2% steeper, that may not sound like much, but it is the difference between Alpe di Pampeago and the Zoncolan.

I highly doubt Bruyneel may sacrifice Klodi so early. He will have Andreas up his sleeve until it turns out to be that the German is not strong enough [if it happens]. Haimar, Maxime, Jacob, Frankie... They'll feed the fire on Croix de Fer. It is a perfect tactical building.

So early? There'll barely be 2 serious mountain stages after La Toussuire, that's hardly early. But don't we know already that Klöden isn't strong enough?

 

[theyoungest]

A crazed intensity? Didn't see much of that on Luz-Ardiden, Morzine-Avoriaz, Arcalis or Tignes. The first MTF has mostly been a joke in the last couple of Tours. And no, Alpe D'Huez and La Toussuire aren't alike at all. Alpe D'Huez is a full average 2% steeper, that may not sound like much, but it is the difference between Alpe di Pampeago and the Zoncolan.

What Fandyboy is trying to say, I think, is that the average race speed in the Tour is higher, and it's all out war before they even get to the mountains. Whatever you say about the Giro, that isn't the case over there. For instance I can't see a guy like Pozzovivo surviving the first week of the Tour.

 

[airstream]

A crazed intensity? Didn't see much of that on Luz-Ardiden, Morzine-Avoriaz, Arcalis or Tignes. The first MTF has mostly been a joke in the last couple of Tours. And no, Alpe D'Huez and La Toussuire aren't alike at all. Alpe D'Huez is a full average 2% steeper, that may not sound like much, but it is the difference between Alpe di Pampeago and the Zoncolan.

So early? There'll barely be 2 serious mountain stages after La Toussuire, that's hardly early. But don't we know already that Klöden isn't strong enough?

Hm, sorry, probably I was expressing ambiguously. I meant all except Alpe-d'Huez. That's the case regarding the first MTF, but this Tour is gonna be unique. We have the best climber of our time and the veterans, mediocre climbers, that are accustomed to ride in the mountains defensively. Neither Menchov nor Evans can get stronger, Andy can do that. At that, the climber will have to prove his superority on all mountain stages starting from the first one.

So early? There'll barely be 2 serious mountain stages after La Toussuire, that's hardly early. But don't we know already that Klöden isn't strong enough?

Everything we've observed so far this season couldn't be accidental. Bruyneel is preparing Klodi very seriously as well. Surely, Andreas can do a brilliant TT and be a lot higher in GC than Andy before the La Toussuire stage.

 

[LaFlorecita]

We have the best climber of our time

*facepalm* Troll....

 

[Bavarianrider]

IF Tony is in yellow after the TT and survives the Croix de Fer, anything is possible

 

[The Hitch]

Nibbles almost certianly podium?

Menchov Wiggins Evans, all significantly better ttrs. We see now that Gesink is probably a better tter. In his last tour outing he finished same as Schlekc in the long 40k tt, and Schleck is going to be better in the mountains.

Id say Samu is a better tter than Nibali though i dont know if many would agree with me.

Either way, Nibali will need some luck to beat superior gt riders to the podium.

 

[Panda Claws]

*facepalm* Troll....

Too be fair Andy's potential could very well reach higher than Contador's.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Too be fair Andy's potential could very well reach higher than Contador's.

Ehm...

 

[Bavarianrider]

Nibbles almost certianly podium?

Menchov Wiggins Evans, all significantly better ttrs. We see now that Gesink is probably a better tter. In his last tour outing he finished same as Schlekc in the long 40k tt, and Schleck is going to be better in the mountains.

Id say Samu is a better tter than Nibali though i dont know if many would agree with me.

Either way, Nibali will need some luck to beat superior gt riders to the podium.

Where is the myth coming from that Nibali is a good TTler actually?

 

[Panda Claws]

Ehm...

Andy is 26, likely to still improve.

Contador is 29, probably will not improve as much as Andy anymore.

 

[Panda Claws]

Where is the myth coming from that Nibali is a good TTler actually?

From PCM

 

[LaFlorecita]

Andy is 26, likely to still improve.

Contador is 29, probably will not improve as much as Andy anymore.

Have we seen Alberto vs Andy on top form lately?

Maybe when Andy reaches his prime years he'll be better. Not yet, though.

I am quite sure that Alberto in his prime years on top form will crush Andy at his best.

Besides, Andy doesn't seem to be improving lately, that's also why I don't rate him for this Tour.

 

[Panda Claws]

Have we seen Alberto vs Andy on top form lately?

Maybe when Andy reaches his prime years he'll be better. Not yet, though.

I am quite sure that Alberto in his prime years on top form will crush Andy at his best.

Besides, Andy doesn't seem to be improving lately, that's also why I don't rate him for this Tour.

All too true.

 

[LaFlorecita]

All too true.

Andy in his prime years (if he shows some improvement) vs Alberto on decline I'd put my money on Andy, but otherwise, never.

 

[will10]

Nibbles almost certianly podium?

Menchov Wiggins Evans, all significantly better ttrs. We see now that Gesink is probably a better tter. In his last tour outing he finished same as Schlekc in the long 40k tt, and Schleck is going to be better in the mountains.

Id say Samu is a better tter than Nibali though i dont know if many would agree with me.

Either way, Nibali will need some luck to beat superior gt riders to the podium.

When's the last time Samu did anything other than softpedal the Dauphine? Or Menchov for that matter.