Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Eric8-A]

Does Michael Rogers plan to ride the Tour?

 

[Caruut]

For someone starting his reply with a jab that it doesn't deserve a reply, the point surely totally went over your head, didn't it? Next time, do me a favor and don't respond.

There are a couple of names you can surely eliminate from that list. For one, Hesjedal, and Martin. The others can be open for discussion. Yet YOU find it funny that i and others name a couple of riders that have more chances, and dismiss it as "funny, because they don't stand a chance either". That's what YOU are saying. Then you tell me, who should be in the poll? How many names should be in the poll? Because if you find it laughable, that i say JvdB should have been added, surely guys like Gesink and Nibali shouldn't be added either? Let alone Frank Schleck. So who does have a decent shot? According to you, Wiggins is very doubtful too. So basically, following your logic, we'll be looking at a bunch of 35 year olds battling it out? My point was that the field is wide open but there are some names in the poll who do not stand a single chance, not that Wiggins is the only viable option. Next time you want to insult someone's intelligence or opinion, make sure you know you understand what's being said.

Well I thought that your point was that if we are to say that if it doesn't matter who the 10th option on the poll is, then by induction, of sorts, it doesn't matter who the 2nd rider is, and because it clearly does matter who the second rider is, it therefore does matter who the 10th rider is (or is at least worth discussing) .Anyone can extend an argument to absurd lengths and then criticise it. It's not particularly clever, just a flashy way of trying to prove a point.

Of course Hesjedal and Martin can be eliminated. Was just observing that poll threads on a lot of different forums about a lot of different topics often get hung up on who the best person to fill one of the lower slots is, when no-one is really going to vote for them anyway. I think it's far more interesting and relevant to discuss the winner. My point was that if the 10th-placed rider needs a sort of "you couldn't make it up" set of circumstances to unfold to win it, there isn't that much point in working out whether or not they should be included.

This is entirely distinct from someone like Evans who could quite plausibly attack Wiggins for 30s in the last few kms several times, then hold his lead over him in the ITT, or someone like Andy cracking him and putting in huge time. These are plausible racing situations.

For the record, I wasn't really aiming it at you - Van Den Broeck does indeed have a much better chance than Hesjay or Martin. It was the Valverde vs Martin discussion that I thought was particularly pointless.

 

[Caruut]

Well the valverde to martin comparison is a bit wide.

I mean lets not forget, Valverde did actually win the last grand tour he competed in

I would not put him as 1 of the favourites but hell he does have some sort of a shot at it.

Martin meanwhile has as much of a chance as Cav.

Valverde isn't the same after the ban, and there are no bonus seconds available. If there were bonus seconds, I could see him nicking enough to maybe pull it through, but I just can't really see where he's going to get the time.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

ok

*shakes hands*

 

[Caruut]

ok

*shakes hands*

Sorry if I was a bit overly combative. Gonna blame it on exam stress

 

[Parrulo]

Valverde isn't the same after the ban, and there are no bonus seconds available. If there were bonus seconds, I could see him nicking enough to maybe pull it through, but I just can't really see where he's going to get the time.

isn't the same? he has been doing fairly well, he got injured in one of the spanish 1 week races leading to pais vasco so ended up not riding it and not being in good shape on classics then he decided to rest instead of riding romandie, but until he got that injury we was going fairly well and seemed to be improving.

i think it's still to soon to tell weather he will return to his old self or not.

 

[The Hitch]

Valverde did i think say that he feels better post ban than pre b9n but then bass said on 19 that his legs were twice as good as on 19 so **** if im going to take cyclists at their word.

 

[hughmoore]

Has anyone done any TT comparisons between Wiggins and Evans so we can get a feel for how much time Wiggins may get over Evans in TT?

I wonder how much impact Cav going for Green will have on Wiggins ability to win the tour, ie not having full support of the team.

Looking forward to the tour and hoping Cadel can go back to back.

Hugh

 

[meat puppet]

I'm rooting for Ryder and Gesink for the obvious reasons (tall, lanky, non-muppet) and to a lesser extent Samu.

I actually think Gesink has a shot at the podium, even if it goes the way of Evans and Wiggo, ie. TTers who can climb. If it goes to climbers some of whom can climb, then he definitely has a chance. Same for Samu.

But come to think of it, it would be quite awesome if Bavarian's wet dream came through and Martin managed to cause serious troubles to the worse TTers by hanging on. Hell, I think I'll actively hope for that.

If Bottle gets his *** together, he could contend as well. Nibali, dunno. Will be aggressive at least.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Samu gets my vote. No TTT to hinder him this year. And good all rounder.

Maybe Wigo, Cadel, and a few others. But No to Frank, Tony, & Ryder.

 

[velomedic]

Wiggins? Seriously? I'd love him to win, but I'm just not sure he can hack the big climbs. He'll crack just like he did in the Vuelta last year.

 

[movingtarget]

Evans. Don't see Nibali being good enough in the TT. Gesink, Wiggins and Menchov as the dangers to Evans. But as we have seen with Basso, he is not the rider he once was. The Tour should also enlighten us regarding the future for Evans, Menchov and Leipheimer and Kloden. Sastre hung around for too long and I can't see Evans and Menchov riding for much longer. Both might go for one more year like Basso if they ride well in the Tour. Kloden has resigned himself to being a domestique in grand tours. Can't see Menchov and Evans doing the same for another couple of years. That said I still think Evans can win this year but he will struggle to beat Contador in a mountainous Tour next year and maybe will try to win the Giro instead before he retires.

 

[karlboss]

I won't make a pick until after Dauphine and Suisse.

There are no clear Favourites.
From the TTers
Wiggins: on form, has been shown to leak a minute at a time on high mountains in the past, if the race is negative he looks good.
Evans: has had his problems, but it concerns me he hasn't been anywhere near as strong early as usual
Menchov: same as Evans
The difference is the latter 2 have at times shown they can climb and not lose minutes, Wiggins may be able to, but hasn't done it yet.
Climbers:
Sanchez: looks good, but historically, not quite there
Nibali: looks good, but historically, not quite there
Schleck: has shown zero, normally at least shows something at LBL, really I think much of how the race pans out depends on him. If the race is negative these 3 have no hope, but if it is aggressive in good form they could take it. Between RSNT, EE, Liqui, I'm hoping they can put the teams in for aggressive climbing and really take it to the TTers.

 

[LaFlorecita]

No matter how I slice it I see myself being dissapointed with the outcome.
Would rather evans then wiggo I suppose

I've got exactly the same problem.

 

[airstream]

The problem is Nibali climbs as a TT'er, not as an agressive climber.

Don't worry, there will be problems neither with Evans nor Wiggins.

 

[SafeBet]

Yeah, and its not like he is Pantani in the mountains.

That's why earlier I posted:

A combination of Wiggins/Evans/Andy looks the most likely for the podium to me, though I would love a combination of Samu/Shark/Gesink.

I simply don't get the dismissal of Nibali as a TTer
I never said he's among the best (Martin, Cancellara, ecc).
I never said he's great (Wiggins, Menchov, Evans).
I said he's good.


I'm gonna change my username to semantics-is-your-friend

 

[que sera cera]

Never forget the black swans. Aside of the traditional names some riders are out there to put in some surprising stellar performance.

The guys that pop up in my mind are Velits, Westra, Rolland and Brajkovic.

Though they yet have to confirm their TdF GC abilities, why not at this july? Would be fun to see one of them do the trick.

 

[karlboss]

The problem is Nibali climbs as a TT'er, not as an agressive climber.

Don't worry, there will problems neither with Evans nor Wiggins.

You mean he TTs up hill and doesn't attack and change pace? but he is an aggressive racer, which is the difference and I'd say a better climber than Evans or Wiggins.

 

[karlboss]

That's why earlier I posted:




I simply don't get the dismissal of Nibali as a TTer
I never said he's among the best (Martin, Cancellara, ecc).
I never said he's great (Wiggins, Menchov, Evans).
I said he's good.


I'm gonna change my username to semantics-is-your-friend

I don't think he's much better than Schleck, who is also good, but will still mostly likely lose minutes to Wiggins and Evans. Honestly I expect somewhere between 3 and 4 between all TTs

 

[Lanark]

Has anyone done any TT comparisons between Wiggins and Evans so we can get a feel for how much time Wiggins may get over Evans in TT?

I'm not really sure how good a comparison you can make. Evans was a brilliant time trialist in 2007 and very good in 2008. He faded a bit after that, but gave a fantastic performance in the 2011 Tour (I don't think many people expected Evans could still perform like that in and ITT).

Menchov was his best in 2009 and 2010. His 2009 Giro time trial won him the race, in 2010 he demolished the competition in the last Tour time trial.

Wiggins has yet to have one of those monster time trials in a GT like Evans and Menchov have done in their best days. It's far from a sure bet that Wiggins will take time on those guys. Still, he is my favorite as well, because he has been doing really well since last year's Dauphiné, and especially this year he has been really good in time trials (although funnily enough I just saw that he won three time trials this year with a cumulative distance on the second guy of 2 seconds ).

 

[karlboss]

Has anyone done any TT comparisons between Wiggins and Evans so we can get a feel for how much time Wiggins may get over Evans in TT?

I wonder how much impact Cav going for Green will have on Wiggins ability to win the tour, ie not having full support of the team.

Looking forward to the tour and hoping Cadel can go back to back.

Hugh

Tough, though one way is this Martin on the Grenoble course performed almost the same, one could argue that means his conditions were similar, and Wiggins pushed in the Dauphine and finished 11 seconds down, and Evans pushed at the Tour and finished 7 seconds down. from that reckoningthey are pretty close.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

The battle of the grinders who can TT will be won by Wiggins this year. Climbers (are there any of these anymore?) will try and gain seconds here and there, but will be beaten by more than 60 seconds in the end.

 

[cycladianpirate]

Menchov for the GT trifecta.

Actually, I think a "who do you least want to win le tour" poll would be more interesting....

 

[search]

And besides Bavarianrider, is there anyone in their right mind that thinks Martin has a fighting chance at this? Frank Schleck is gonna take this?

I think this comparison is flawed. Tony Martin has a good basis, he needs to develop in the mountains of course, but with a course like this year and a possibly boring race (with few attacks) he can win. I know it was a different time, but when Honchar was second in the Giro it was also mostly down to his TT-skills.

I don't think he will, but Frank Schleck for instance will never win a race like this. He can get 5th or 6th easily, but he cannot win. Same for Vandenbroeck.

 

[Bavarianrider]

i've seen and ridden the Tour 2012 in PCM a couple of times. And I really see it going to a time trial specialist like Wiggins or Evans and possibly Menchov.
The mountain stages are simply so disappointing

What did the TT look like?
Especially the first one? Hilly, technical, what were the results?