Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[LaFlorecita]

I wish I'd voted for Samu.............................

 

[johnnycash]

Well he outperformed Wiggins at last year's Vuelta. Shouldn't that give him the captains role?

Froome hasn't doen much this year (although granted he hasn't had many opportunities) but doesn't he have some parasitic infection that keeps re-occurring?

Wiggo may be an inferior climber to Froome (or even Uran for that matter) but he has certainly made the most of his opportunities in his speciality TTs when there has been, at times, significant pressure on him. That TT were he started behind Westra or had a mechanical, for example, and that bodes well for this parcours.

 

[Froome19]

stage 15 giro 2011, Nibali attacked in the high mountains no? didn't work but he attacked. Climbing...in the 2010 giro he outclimbed evans a few times, and I think is better now.
I think Nibali knows he can't TT with Evans, could climb better and will attack in the mountains, even if it doesn't work.
Defintely an outside shot at a podium, if I was to take an honest stab at where i think he'll finish it would be 6th.

Also TA this year.

 

[theyoungest]

stage 15 giro 2011, Nibali attacked in the high mountains no? didn't work but he attacked. Climbing...in the 2010 giro he outclimbed evans a few times, and I think is better now.
I think Nibali knows he can't TT with Evans, could climb better and will attack in the mountains, even if it doesn't work.
Defintely an outside shot at a podium, if I was to take an honest stab at where i think he'll finish it would be 6th.

Nibali isn't a better climber than Evans. No way.

It's just ridiculous how overrated you become when you decide to avoid all confrontations with the world's best.

 

[airstream]

Nibali isn't a better climber than Evans. No way.

It's just ridiculous how overrated you become when you decide to avoid all confrontations with the world's best.

There can't be "no way" in such matters. Nibali beat Evans in the 09 Tour and Giro. It is already a powerful argument. All we can say for sure is Evans in the 2011 Tour was a better climber than Nibali in any his race. But this fact itself guarantees nothing.

 

[TheEnoculator]

Before Contador was banned, everyone was betting on a Contador vs Evans scenario. Now that Contador is no longer in the picture, and Evans hasn't shown good form, Wiggins becomes the logical choice. But to me, it's down to Menchov and Wiggins and since Menchov is a bit more agressive in the mountains, I think he'll beat Wiggins by less than a minute overall.

 

[patrick767]

Podium: Evans, Wiggins, Schleck in that order.

 

[theyoungest]

There can't be "no way" in such matters. Nibali beat Evans in the 09 Tour and Giro. It is already a powerful argument. All we can say for sure is Evans in the 2011 Tour was a better climber than Nibali in any his race. But this fact itself guarantees nothing.

Evans actually outclimbed Nibali for most of the 2010 Giro, even when he wasn't completely fit in the final week. Just see what he did in the final mountain stage, he dropped all contenders, Nibali wasn't even close. And the 2009 Tour, well... half the peloton outclimbed Evans there.

 

[johnnycash]

What is the realistic combined time loss for Andy to each of the other main contenders in the time trial? And what gap would he need before the final 52k TT to hold them off?

Could he lose five minutes overall to the top contenders since he lost 3.5 seconds per K in the final time trial last year to Evans?

If so that means he will have to be attacking all the time which could be interesting.

Do you think it will be as calculated as that? If Andy puts 5 mins into his closest rival on the big mountain stages the psychological boost and impact for Wiggins etc) would be a bigger factor than the pure time differences IMO. Rodriguez and Basso were broken when Ryder did the damage on that one stage at the end of the giro.

The TTs will also vary depending on how achieveable the gaps are. Sastre in 2008, one ride out of his skin for the tour title is achieveable. Perhaps AS in 2011 being the exception of course.

 

[Fetisoff]

Well he outperformed Wiggins at last year's Vuelta. Shouldn't that give him the captains role?

Nope.

Plus I'm sure Wiggo's a bigger name in England, which plays well for sponsors

 

[Froome19]

Nope.

Plus I'm sure Wiggo's a bigger name in England, which plays well for sponsors

You hit the nail on the head, Wiggins is an entity on his own ,here, which is about to top Cav atm.

Also the Vuelta perfomance wouldnt have influenced their decisions as they know Wiggins is better than that and would have done better in the ideal circumstances.

 

[dlwssonic]

There can't be "no way" in such matters. Nibali beat Evans in the 09 Tour and Giro. It is already a powerful argument. All we can say for sure is Evans in the 2011 Tour was a better climber than Nibali in any his race. But this fact itself guarantees nothing.

FYI evans was sick in the 2nd week of the Giro and was obviously not at his best.

 

[Bavarianrider]

What is the realistic combined time loss for Andy to each of the other main contenders in the time trial? And what gap would he need before the final 52k TT to hold them off?

Could he lose five minutes overall to the top contenders since he lost 3.5 seconds per K in the final time trial last year to Evans?

If so that means he will have to be attacking all the time which could be interesting.

Roughly:+/- a few seconds

Prologe:
Martin +30
Wiggins+30
Klöden +20
Evans +20
Menchov +20
Sanchez + 20
Danielson +20
Leipheimer +20
Westra +20
Gesink + 15
Nibali +10
Horner +5

First TT
Martin: + 2:50
Wiggins: + 2:10
Klöden + 2:00
Evans + 2:10
Menchov + 1:30
Sanchez + 1:25
Danielson + 1:20
Leipheimer + 1:30
Westra: + 0:50
Gesink: + 0:50
Nibali' +0:40
Horner: + 05

Second TT
Martin: + 4:00
Wiggins + 2:10
Klöden + 3:00
Evans + 2:20
Menchov: + 2:30
Sanchez +1:30
Danielson + 1:50
Leipheimer + 2:00
Westra + 1:00
Gesink + 0:55
Nibali + 0:50
Horner + 0:05

Overall:
Martin + 7:20
Wiggins + 4:50
Evans +4:50
Klöden + 5:20
Menchov +4:20
Sanchez + 3:15
Danielson +3:30
Leipheimer + 3:50
Westra + 2:10
Gesink +2:00
Nibali +1:40
Horner + 0:15

 

[Eshnar]

Evans actually outclimbed Nibali for most of the 2010 Giro, even when he wasn't completely fit in the final week. Just see what he did in the final mountain stage, he dropped all contenders, Nibali wasn't even close. And the 2009 Tour, well... half the peloton outclimbed Evans there.

Evans outclimbed Nibali on Zoncolan and Tonale.
Nibali outclimbed him on Mortirolo and on Grappa (Evans was dropping a few metres before the top).
And Nibali climbed really bad on Zonc because the effort of the previous stage.

 

[airstream]

FYI evans was sick in the 2nd week of the Giro and was obviously not at his best.

Nonetheless, it is a real result and we have to look up to that. Evans had a bad day on the road to Aprica and paid a lot. All the more so, he outclimb Evans not a lot on Mortirolo and rather the circumstances played against Evans in a very evil way. However, result is primary. Perhaps Gesink outclimbed everyone including Evans in the 2009 Vuelta, but what's the use of it looking at the final GC.

 

[LaFlorecita]

@BR Nice.

I don't think Andy can take back 3.15 on Samu in the mountains.

 

[airstream]

BavarianRider, you miscalculated very seriously. Kloden must take this Tour at this rate.

 

[Bavarianrider]

BavarianRider, you miscalculated very seriously. Kloden must take this Tour at this rate.

If Klöden can somehow turn back the hands of time and get to 100% this is not so unrealistic. And i feel like Klöden has on top GT left in his tank.

 

[patterson_hood]

but he was pretty close his best form. he was very strong near the end of the season.
Was he at his best form in the 2010 tdf?
just a question.

No idea to be honest, I'd say he was at the time but I'm willing to bet he's got better. One thing you can't argue against is that he is a fantastic bike rider, boring or not, and that it's taken him time to transfer from the track to the road. I'm no where near confident, but if I had to bet my money would be on him. Second in the WC ITT and his climbing has drastically improved. I guess the first mountain stage will tell us, his rivals are going to have to attack at any opportunity, if they leave it to late they may struggle to put enough time into him.

 

[Froome19]

Roughly:+/- a few seconds

Prologe:
Martin +30
Wiggins+30
Klöden +20
Evans +20
Menchov +20
Sanchez + 20
Danielson +20
Leipheimer +20
Westra +20
Gesink + 15
Nibali +10
Horner +5

First TT
Martin: + 2:50
Wiggins: + 2:10
Klöden + 2:00
Evans + 2:10
Menchov + 1:30
Sanchez + 1:25
Danielson + 1:20
Leipheimer + 1:30
Westra: + 0:50
Gesink: + 0:50
Nibali' +0:40
Horner: + 05

Second TT
Martin: + 4:00
Wiggins + 2:10
Klöden + 3:00
Evans + 2:20
Menchov: + 2:30
Sanchez +1:30
Danielson + 1:50
Leipheimer + 2:00
Westra + 1:00
Gesink + 0:55
Nibali + 0:50
Horner + 0:05

Overall:
Martin + 7:20
Wiggins + 4:50
Evans +4:50
Klöden + 5:20
Menchov +4:20
Sanchez + 3:15
Danielson +3:30
Leipheimer + 3:50
Westra + 2:10
Gesink +2:00
Nibali +1:40
Horner + 0:15

Ummm......
Kolden Vs Wiggins since 2010
1 29/04/2012 Tour de Romandie, Stage 5 : Crans-Montana - Crans-Montana I.T.T. 1. 25.
2 24/04/2012 Tour de Romandie, Prologue : Lausanne I.T.T. 11. 56.
3 11/03/2012 Paris - Nice, Stage 8 : Nice - Col d'Eze I.T.T. 1. 7.
4 4/03/2012 Paris - Nice, Stage 1 : Dampierre - Chevreuse I.T.T. 2. 60. 5 29/08/2011 Vuelta a España, Stage 10 : Salamanca .T.T. 3. 132.
6 20/08/2011 Vuelta a España, Stage 1 : Benidorm T.T.T. 20 14.
7 3/07/2011 Tour de France, Stage 2 : - Les Essarts T.T.T. 3. 6.
8 27/03/2011 Critérium International, Stage 3 : Porto-Vecchio I.T.T. 2. 1
9 11/03/2011 Paris - Nice, Stage 6 : Aix-en-Provence I.T.T. 2. 4.
10 24/07/2010 Tour de France, Stage 19 : Bordeaux - Pauillac I.T.T. 9 86 11 3/07/2010 Tour de France, Prologue : Rotterdam (Ned) I.T.T. 76. 16
12 10/04/2010 Vuelta al Pais Vasco, Stage 6 : Orio - Orio I.T.T. 11. 9.
13 Vuelta a la Region de Murcia, Stage 4 : Alhama de Murcia I.T.T. 3. 4.

That gives: 9-4 to Wiggins....
MAybe things will be different in the Tour, but Wiggins is a better TT full stop(.)

 

[Froome19]

If Klöden can somehow turn back the hands of time and get to 100% this is not so unrealistic. And i feel like Klöden has on top GT left in his tank.

What has he shown in the previous year to suggest that?

 

[Bavarianrider]

Ummm......
Kolden Vs Wiggins since 2010
1 29/04/2012 Tour de Romandie, Stage 5 : Crans-Montana - Crans-Montana I.T.T. 1. 25.
2 24/04/2012 Tour de Romandie, Prologue : Lausanne I.T.T. 11. 56.
3 11/03/2012 Paris - Nice, Stage 8 : Nice - Col d'Eze I.T.T. 1. 7.
4 4/03/2012 Paris - Nice, Stage 1 : Dampierre - Chevreuse I.T.T. 2. 60. 5 29/08/2011 Vuelta a España, Stage 10 : Salamanca .T.T. 3. 132.
6 20/08/2011 Vuelta a España, Stage 1 : Benidorm T.T.T. 20 14.
7 3/07/2011 Tour de France, Stage 2 : - Les Essarts T.T.T. 3. 6.
8 27/03/2011 Critérium International, Stage 3 : Porto-Vecchio I.T.T. 2. 1
9 11/03/2011 Paris - Nice, Stage 6 : Aix-en-Provence I.T.T. 2. 4.
10 24/07/2010 Tour de France, Stage 19 : Bordeaux - Pauillac I.T.T. 9 86 11 3/07/2010 Tour de France, Prologue : Rotterdam (Ned) I.T.T. 76. 16
12 10/04/2010 Vuelta al Pais Vasco, Stage 6 : Orio - Orio I.T.T. 11. 9.
13 Vuelta a la Region de Murcia, Stage 4 : Alhama de Murcia I.T.T. 3. 4.

That gives: 9-4 to Wiggins....
MAybe things will be different in the Tour, but Wiggins is a better TT full stop(.)

Of course this Klöden numbers can only be true if he reaches his potential once again. Hey and bit of wishful thinking must be allowed
If he does. in a Gt i rate him at least as good as Wiggins.

In my calculations I asuemd that everyone reches his TT potential in GT.

 

[airstream]

Klodi doesnt have to confirm anything. He and le Tour is organic whole and even not in the best seasons he got himself together and rode the Tour well. With Bruyneel, Kloden will fret and fume at all. He is a top of cycling practicality and intellect.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Roughly:+/- a few seconds

Prologe:
Martin +30
Wiggins+30
Klöden +20
Evans +20
Menchov +20
Sanchez + 20
Danielson +20
Leipheimer +20
Westra +20
Gesink + 15
Nibali +10
Horner +5

First TT
Martin: + 2:50
Wiggins: + 2:10
Klöden + 2:00
Evans + 2:10
Menchov + 1:30
Sanchez + 1:25
Danielson + 1:20
Leipheimer + 1:30
Westra: + 0:50
Gesink: + 0:50
Nibali' +0:40
Horner: + 05

Second TT
Martin: + 4:00
Wiggins + 2:10
Klöden + 3:00
Evans + 2:20
Menchov: + 2:30
Sanchez +1:30
Danielson + 1:50
Leipheimer + 2:00
Westra + 1:00
Gesink + 0:55
Nibali + 0:50
Horner + 0:05

Overall:
Martin + 7:20
Wiggins + 4:50
Evans +4:50
Klöden + 5:20
Menchov +4:20
Sanchez + 3:15
Danielson +3:30
Leipheimer + 3:50
Westra + 2:10
Gesink +2:00
Nibali +1:40
Horner + 0:15

So you're German, right?

 

[Angliru]

Samu - Nibs - Cobo would be epic. Although, Samu - Andy - Nibs would also be nice. 4 schleckond places in a row ftw!!

I like that! Very witty!