Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Fetisoff]

So its not 110K of TT's this year, who was saying that... errr....errr...

I think the correct number is 101 kilometers actually

 

[ElChingon]

I think the correct number is 101 kilometers actually

Please send Steephill the memo, I can only fix my post, but not till I find a better source.

 

[Fetisoff]

Please send Steephill the memo, I can only fix my post, but not till I find a better source.

http://www.letour.fr/2012/TDF/COURSE/us/le_parcours.html

 

[ElChingon]

I think the correct number is 101 kilometers actually

Rats! Just went to letour.fr and its actually 101.4 KM's! From all the banter since it was announced it was made to sound like half the Tour was TT's, so I'll fix it now.

 

[ElChingon]

Yea, 2011 had 41K's and now its 101.4K's, the Schlecks are hosed!

 

[Andre.J]

Way too early to tell. But if i had to pick someone now, I would pick a dark horse: Valverde. Is he a dark horse?

Why is Matin and Hesjedal and Gesink on that list?

 

[karlboss]

Yea, 2011 had 41K's and now its 101.4K's, the Schlecks are hosed!

No way, they just have to race. To me it is their form that suggests they are toast. Even if Schleck loses 5 minutes in the TTs there are the stages to make it back.

EDIT: before I'm flamed Schleck is not my favourite, but he will be on the podium

 

[ElChingon]

No way, they just have to race. To me it is their form that suggests they are toast. Even if Shcleck loses 5 minutes in the TTs there are the stages to make it back.

EDIT: before I'm flamed Schleck is not my favourite, but he will be on the podium

That is what they assumed last year and the last TT was not as long as it will be this year. If they race just as conservatively they're hosed, i.e. not attack and not gain major time on the mountain stages. If any decent TT GC rider is within 2 minutes of the Schlecks they're just not going to win it (the Schlecks).

 

[karlboss]

That is what they assumed last year and the last TT was not as long as it will be this year. If they race just as conservatively they're hosed, i.e. not attack and not gain major time on the mountain stages. If any decent TT GC rider is within 2 minutes of the Schlecks they're just not going to win it (the Schlecks).

Exactly, so the Schlecks have to make sure that they have 2-3 minutes before the final TT, luckily the first TT is before the first high mountains, should let them know they have to race. Andy attacked last year once he knew he was in trouble.

 

[Eric8-A]

Another incentive to race aggressively and not sit around during the mountains.

 

[Gubby Allen]

I can't see anything beyond Wiggins or Evans, could see them 3-4 mins clear. Unless any of the others have improved their TTs that much. I could see JVB going top 5 but neither Schleck that high. Valerde, Leiphimer, Froome, Cobo may all finish higher than Martin, Ryder, Frank and Menchov.

 

[MrRoboto]

I have really no clear idea who'll win this year, so I'm really curious about this year's Tour. But with the Giro in mind, I still don't have very high expectations though.

 

[Cancellator]

I can't see anything beyond Wiggins or Evans, could see them 3-4 mins clear. Unless any of the others have improved their TTs that much. I could see JVB going top 5 but neither Schleck that high. Valerde, Leiphimer, Froome, Cobo may all finish higher than Martin, Ryder, Frank and Menchov.

Valverde higher than Frank? Maybe if the latter doesn't get selected for the team...

 

[Bavarianrider]

No that all profiles are out, i think no one can really complain about this route. Many very intersting stages.

 

[Eshnar]

No that all profiles are out, i think no one can really complain about this route. Many very intersting stages.

Where are the profiles?

 

[cineteq]

Where are the profiles?

@steephill
Tour de France 2012: all stage profiles, maps and timetables are now posted: http://www.steephill.tv/tour-de-france/

 

[Bavarianrider]

Actually this is quiet a fantastic route.
It offers really a few stages for all type of riders.
TTlers, Sprinters, Puncheurs, Climbers, Classics Riders.

If it had a cobbled stage it would be perfect.

 

[Eshnar]

Actually this is quiet a fantastic route.
It offers really a few stages for all type of riders.
TTlers, Sprinters, Puncheurs, Climbers, Classics Riders.

If it had a cobbled stage it would be perfect.

Am I the only one who sees really few chances for climbers?
As for classic riders, I see only stage 4.

 

[theyoungest]

Am I the only one who sees really few chances for climbers?
As for classic riders, I see only stage 4.

There are chances for climbers to attack, but if the peloton doesn't want to see them succeed it will be hard. What the course seriously lacks is a finish on an HC col, even if Wiggins gets dropped on the slopes of the Croix de Fer or something his Sky train can bring him back for La Toussuire, where no one will drop him.

I see what ASO are trying to do with this course, stimulate long range attacks, but I don't know if they've really succeeded.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Am I the only one who sees really few chances for climbers?
As for classic riders, I see only stage 4.

- 3 TTlers stages
- 2 Uphill Finishes for Puncheurs
- 1 Ardennes Type Classic Stage
- Stage 4: a chance for classic riders if the really try
- 3 Mountain Finishes for Climbers
- The Grand Colombier Stage. A stage for a climbers who are willing to take risks. Grand Colombier is a really difficult mountain
- Foix Stage: Offers a chance to drop weaker climbers
- 6 stages for a sprint royal chance.

Really this is by far the most balanced route in years.

 

[roundabout]

Still looks as **** as it was in October. Maybe even slightly worse.

 

[Eshnar]

- 3 TTlers stages
- 2 Uphill Finishes for Puncheurs ok
- 1 Ardennes Type Classic Stage which one? Porrentruy?
- Stage 4: a chance for classic riders if the really try ok
- 3 Mountain Finishes for Climbers which ones exactly?
- The Grand Colombier Stage. A stage for a climbers who are willing to take risks. Grand Colombier is a really difficult mountain agreed, and I add I really like this stage
- Foix Stage: Offers a chance to drop weaker climbers hell no
- 6 stages for a sprint royal chance. fine

Really this is by far the most balanced route in years.

I could perhaps agree for the balance... but I still don't like it

 

[Gloin22]

- 3 TTlers stages
- 2 Uphill Finishes for Puncheurs
- 1 Ardennes Type Classic Stage
- Stage 4: a chance for classic riders if the really try
- 3 Mountain Finishes for Climbers
- The Grand Colombier Stage. A stage for a climbers who are willing to take risks. Grand Colombier is a really difficult mountain
- Foix Stage: Offers a chance to drop weaker climbers
- 6 stages for a sprint royal chance.

Really this is by far the most balanced route in years.

I agree on this. Every type of rider has a chance to really influence the Tour. This year it should be exciting. But of course there are people no matter what and how interesting it might be, say it's **** because it's the Tour...

 

[Bavarianrider]

Still looks as **** as it was in October. Maybe even slightly worse.

If you want to see 10 Mountainfinishes wait for the Vuelta.

But this comes close to what a GT should look like.
And it's a bit different than what we usually see., too.

 

[gilbertador]

If you want to see 10 Mountainfinishes wait for the Vuelta.

But this comes close to what a GT should look like.
And it's a bit different than what we usually see., too.

I totally agree with this, the biggest race of the year gives every kind of rider a chance, the winner should be able to look after themselves on all terrain, you certainly wont see a 1 dimensional winner of this tour