Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[roundabout]

If you want to see 10 Mountainfinishes wait for the Vuelta.

But this comes close to what a GT should look like.
And it's a bit different than what we usually see., too.

Congratulations, nice strawman.

I can write a paragraph on how the mountain stages can be improved without changing the start or the finish locations but that would be a waste of my time since you've already decided that it's a "balanced" route.

 

[roundabout]

I totally agree with this, the biggest race of the year gives every kind of rider a chance, the winner should be able to look after themselves on all terrain, you certainly wont see a 1 dimensional winner of this tour

It's a route that favors a defensive rider with a strong team.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Congratulations, nice strawman.

I can write a paragraph on how the mountain stages can be improved without changing the start or the finish locations but that would be a waste of my time since you've already decided that it's a "balanced" route.

Why should every GT be a HC mountains climbfest, only?

 

[Jan the Man]

Classics stages - 1, 3 (2)

Sprinters stages 2, 4, 5, 6, 13, 15, 21 (7)

Medium Mountain Stages - 7, 8, 14 (3)

Pucheurs/Transition - 12, 19 (2)

High Mountain stages - 10, 11, 16, 17 (4)

ITT - P, 9, 19 (3)

I think it's a relatively balanced route.

I would like at least one of the mountain top finishes to be harder.

 

[gilbertador]

It's a route that favors a defensive rider with a strong team.

In a way but mountains like the colombiere will allow the Shlecks to kick things off early, there are certainly opportunities, however one harder finish would be good

 

[roundabout]

Why should every GT be a HC mountains climbfest, only?

Come back when you can argue without strawmen.

 

[guncha]

The Grand Colombier Stage. A stage for a climbers who are willing to take risks. Grand Colombier is a really difficult mountain

Recent history shows GC guys don't attack on final HC mountain if it is located 40km+ from finish. Climbers might be willing to take risks but other contenders with the help of their domestiques will catch them easily. Nothing more than boring breakaway and some action in the last km can be expected from this stage.

Foix Stage: Offers a chance to drop weaker climbers.

Weaker climbers will be dropped long before this stage and nobody will care about them. This stage will be as boring as a stage to Pau in TDF 2006 with no effect on GC. See the profile here: http://www.letour.fr/2006/TDF/LIVE/us/1000/dprofil.html
These two stage are made to collect money from cities in valleys not to make exciting racing.

 

[will10]

It's a route that favors a defensive rider with a strong team.

Bingo .

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Where will vdb and gesink get time on nibali menchov and sanchez?

Im starting to see a general pattern of riders who only care about the tour - gesink vdb, getting rated surprisingly highly, and the riders who actually race all round seasons - nibali menchov sanchez, get rated surprisingly lowly, despite each of the latte having a vastly superior palmares and record to each of the former

Menchov wasn't exactly slammin' it in last years Vuelta, beating "****ing" Monfort (who worked his *** off during the TDF) for spot 5 by 25 seconds. Nibali managed to "beat" a recovering JvdB by an amazing 14 seconds. Remember there was a fairly long ITT in the Vuelta as well. Last year Menchov managed a 7th place in the Giro, and looking at the guys (same age) in front of him and what they did this year, i wouldn't be as confident in his performance as some here seem to be.

As for where Gesink and JvdB would gain time? How about by not getting dropped from the grupetto? Or are we really expecting bunch sprints of 15 guys in the mountains? I'm actually wondering if some of the climbers are going to team up and if we're going to see hesitation from the TT specialist to follow them as they have 100km TT to fall back on.

 

[Potomac]

This one is it for Menchov.

 

[guncha]

This year it should be exciting. But of course there are people no matter what and how interesting it might be, say it's **** because it's the Tour...

To me TDF is a better race than Giro - it has better and more balanced route, better riders, epic history etc. TDFs 07, 08, 10, 11 had great route and excellent spectacle. I enjoyed every minute of these races. With its excellent first week TDF 12 had great potential. However, second and third weeks are disastrous with just three high mountain stages for GC combined. It was not difficult to make great TDF 12 route - just add one more high mountain stage for GC (either MTF at Colombier or Peguere; or a stage Samatan - Hautacam/PSM). What is the point of three week race it it has just three mountain stages for GC? Sometimes Dauphine has as many as TDF 12.

 

[Eshnar]

To me TDF is a better race than Giro - it has better and more balanced route, better riders, epic history etc. TDFs 07, 08, 10, 11 had great route and excellent spectacle. I enjoyed every minute of these races. With its excellent first week TDF 12 had great potential. However, second and third weeks are disastrous with just three high mountain stages combined. It was not difficult to make great TDF 12 route - just add one more high mountain stage for GC (either MTF at Colombier or Peguere; or a stage Samatan - Hautacam/PSM). What is the point of three week race it it has just three mountain stages for GC? Sometimes Dauphine has as many as TDF 12.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

To me TDF is a better race than Giro - it has better and more balanced route, better riders, epic history etc. TDFs 07, 08, 10, 11 had great route and excellent spectacle. I enjoyed every minute of these races. With its excellent first week TDF 12 had great potential. However, second and third weeks are disastrous with just three high mountain stages combined. It was not difficult to make great TDF 12 route - just add one more high mountain stage for GC (either MTF at Colombier or Peguere; or a stage Samatan - Hautacam/PSM). What is the point of three week race it it has just three mountain stages for GC? Sometimes Dauphine has as many as TDF 12.

The first week isn't excellent at all. 4 bunch sprints, 1 uphill bunch sprint and a useless prologue is what's for dinner. Only Tuesday's stage looks promising.

If you include days 8, 9 and 10 it's still only okay.

 

[guncha]

If you want to see 10 Mountainfinishes wait for the Vuelta.

But this comes close to what a GT should look like.
And it's a bit different than what we usually see., too.

To me each GT should have 3-4 MTFs in high mountains plus 1-2 GC stages with decent where the final 1st cat or HC climb is located less than 20km before finish.
No more than one stage with wasted 1st cat or HC climbs.
One long ITT (45-55km) and medium length ITT (25km-35km) should also be there.
Medium mountains will make the racing better but they are just bonus to the above mentioned.

 

[Leonardus]

This years route is not that bad but I'm missing a real hard queen stage where the climbers can really gain time ahead of the final time trial. The pyrenees stages are not selective enough is my guess and the stage to Foix is a missed opportunity.
Maybe this route will cause some very aggressive and offensive racing but I'm not very hopeful about that.

 

[thegrimpeur]

- Stage 7, 11, 16 and 17 will force natural gaps between the top riders.
- The TTs will force the climbers to gain back the time lost. This sort of GC racing has essentially been lost the past couple of years, as there hasn't been enough TT kms to put the rouleurs in contention.
- Stage 8 and 10 has great places to launge attacks and gain time, but they could be a bit lost as riders will look to preserve energy for the coming stage.
- Stages 12 and 14 is lost. No one will attack, a break will get ten minutes and a nobody will rack up a ton of mountain points. Why can't they just have one medium hard transision stage and one super hard mountain stage instead? Would have made it a perfect route...

But I like the route. I think we are going to see exciting racing, as a lot of guys looking to win (especially the Schlecks) will have to win time in the mountains. We really haven't seen this sort of racing in a while, as the GC list has essentially been like a KOM list, just with a final TT to make that minor change.

 

[Cimber]

A little side comment which is not about the GC: Riis states that CAS will aim for the Polka dot jersey.

http://politiken.dk/sport/cykling/ECE1641000/riis-planlaegger-en-bjergtroeje-til-chris-anker/
(in Danish)

 

[airstream]

I like the Giro a lot but Tour kills any race by squads, by entourage, by everything. It's not about balance of a route. It's just the matter of perception and expectations. The Tour is genetics of any cycling fan. I don't challenge the opinion of the Giro fans though.

This parcours definitely suits time trialists but nothing can salvage them.

 

[Ferminal]

I can write a paragraph on how the mountain stages can be improved without changing the start or the finish locations but that would be a waste of my time since you've already decided that it's a "balanced" route.

It doesn't even need a whole paragraph. Three or four simple changes.

At least last year there were four stages worthy of being a decisive mountain stage in a GT. I don't even know if there is a "Queen" stage this year... is it the 148km one or the one with the killer Aspin - Peyresourde (Avajan) combo?

If we are lucky the Grand Colombier stage will be like Manse last year (more likely to be Pra Martino or worse). The Foix stage... well, suddenly GC contenders are going to attack to a summit with 40km flat after it.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Recent history shows GC guys don't attack on final HC mountain if it is located 40km+ from finish. Climbers might be willing to take risks but other contenders with the help of their domestiques will catch them easily. Nothing more than boring breakaway and some action in the last km can be expected from this stage.

Weaker climbers will be dropped long before this stage and nobody will care about them. This stage will be as boring as a stage to Pau in TDF 2006 with no effect on GC. See the profile here: http://www.letour.fr/2006/TDF/LIVE/us/1000/dprofil.html
These two stage are made to collect money from cities in valleys not to make exciting racing.

If climbers don't use a chance like Grand Colombier, that's their fault. Not the one of the route. The climb is long and difficult enough to totally rip the field appart and eliminate some riders of the GC.

 

[Winterfold]

- 3 TTlers stages
- 2 Uphill Finishes for Puncheurs
- 1 Ardennes Type Classic Stage
- Stage 4: a chance for classic riders if the really try
- 3 Mountain Finishes for Climbers
- The Grand Colombier Stage. A stage for a climbers who are willing to take risks. Grand Colombier is a really difficult mountain
- Foix Stage: Offers a chance to drop weaker climbers
- 6 stages for a sprint royal chance.

Really this is by far the most balanced route in years.

+1 something for everyone - as it should be... too many on here want courses for bicycles ridden by machines, not human beings.

 

[LaFlorecita]

A little side comment which is not about the GC: Riis states that CAS will aim for the Polka dot jersey.

http://politiken.dk/sport/cykling/ECE1641000/riis-planlaegger-en-bjergtroeje-til-chris-anker/
(in Danish)

Worth any WT points?

 

[Eshnar]

Only two mountain stages that I like are the Grand Colombiere one and Peyragudes. The others sucks badly
La Toussuire and Luchon stages are even on the edge of trolling...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

La Toussiere sucks as a climb. I remember in the Dauphine last year even when they made the race hard by attacking the climb before it didn't work and it was almost a 20 man group sprint until J-Rod did his 1km attack.

 

[airstream]

La Toussiere sucks as a climb. I remember in the Dauphine last year even when they made the race hard by attacking the climb before it didn't work and it was almost a 20 man group sprint until J-Rod did his 1km attack.

That was an easier Toussuire on a way easier stage