Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Zam_Olyas]

I am really looking forward to this tdf to see what Andy would do because i think he knows he have to attack in the bare mountain there is. Classic battle for climbers v tt'ers will be witnessed.

 

[Eshnar]

Croix de Fer

Ah, ok. I was talking about Madeleine, anyway.
On Croix De Fer someone could move, but the chance is really thin.
Edit: Maybe Nibbles can try on the descent.

 

[Unkown]

16 isn't too bad as long as Andy or somebody with the ability to get away on the Tourmalet attacks. As soon as the Tourmalet starts there will be not flat roads for the final 100 kms so a climber could possibly get a lot of time on that stage.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Ah, ok. I was talking about Madeleine, anyway.
On Croix De Fer someone could move, but the chance is really thin.
Edit: Maybe Nibbles can try on the descent.

The descent of the Mollard is pretty spectacular by TDF standards, btw.

 

[Eshnar]

16 isn't too bad as long as Andy or somebody with the ability to get away on the Tourmalet attacks. As soon as the Tourmalet starts there will be not flat roads for the final 100 kms so a climber could possibly get a lot of time on that stage.

Aspin is a flat road

 

[Magnus]

Why haven't the final two mountain stage profiles been added to the TDF website yet? Only these three?

http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2012/1000/PROFIL.gif
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2012/1100/PROFIL.gif
http://www.letour.fr/PHOTOS/TDF/2012/1400/PROFIL.gif

Anyone have profiles for those stages?

Actually it is on the TdF website:
http://www.letour.fr/2012/TDF/COURSE/fr/les_sommets_du_tour.html

 

[cineteq]

I'm sorry you missed it.
The point is whether or not the route is good.
A good route gives more chances to good racing. It can't force it, just like a bad route doesn't prevent a good race.

Yes the probability is higher when you have a better parcours, but I don't want to waste my energy/time criticizing a parcours, when it's nothing I can do about it. I rather focus on the participants and the subplots. That's my point.

 

[Eshnar]

Yes the probability is higher when you have a better parcours, but I don't want to waste my energy/time criticizing a parcours, when it's nothing I can do about it. I rather focus on the participants and the subplots. That's my point.

You're still wasting your time criticizing those who criticize the parcour.
And there's nothing you can do about partecipants and subplots too.

 

[roundabout]

16 isn't too bad as long as Andy or somebody with the ability to get away on the Tourmalet attacks. As soon as the Tourmalet starts there will be not flat roads for the final 100 kms so a climber could possibly get a lot of time on that stage.

It's about 15km of false flat between the bottom of the Tourmalet and the start of the Aspin and another 10km of false flat between the bottom of the aspin and the start of Peyresourde.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Aspin is a flat road

Pantani couldn't save the same exact stage last time around, which is all anyone needs to know.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Contador attacked at 4% Etna section.

Uhm... I am quite certain Alberto attacked on a 8% section... I remember that exactly... 4% is like a false flat...

 

[Eshnar]

Pantani couldn't save the same exact stage last time around, which is all anyone needs to know.

(10c...)

 

[guncha]

If climbers don't use a chance like Grand Colombier, that's their fault. Not the one of the route. The climb is long and difficult enough to totally rip the field appart and eliminate some riders of the GC.

I agree that Grand Colombier is difficult climb. However, in modern era of cycling nothing happens when HC climb is located 40km+ before the finish. You should go back to 60ies or 70ies to see attacks in stages of such type. It is the fault of organizers not riders because riders won't be suicidal and won't waste energy in such kind of stages. To illustrate it watch the highlights of Stage 11 of TDF 2005 when Galibier was 40km before finish. That stage was harder than Colombier stage and there was no action between Armstrong, Basso, Ullrich (Armstrong group had 26 riders at finish). Vino attacked after he lost the race the day before. Take attention how domestiques slowly but surely cut the time gaps after the Galibier. Links are here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvZGHs-OVQA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX5ZSef5_JY

P.S. I remember taking vacation to watch this 5 hour stage and I was truly disappointed when nothing happened...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Actually it is on the TdF website

Much obliged!

 

[airstream]

Uhm... I am quite certain Alberto attacked on a 8% section... I remember that exactly... 4% is like a false flat...

No. People didn't learn to ride up 8% with such speed so far. Though, I mean exactly the beginning of the attack because later the road got steeper.

 

[LaFlorecita]

No. People didn't learn to ride up 8% with such speed so far. Though, I mean exactly the beginning of the attack because later the road got steeper.

This is the profile... He attacked with 6.8km to go... Which means between km 12 and 13...

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I agree that Grand Colombier is difficult climb. However, in modern era of cycling nothing happens when HC climb is located 40km+ before the finish. You should go back to 60ies or 70ies to see attacks in stages of such type. It is the fault of organizers not riders because riders won't be suicidal and won't waste energy in such kind of stages. To illustrate it watch the highlights of Stage 11 of TDF 2005 when Galibier was 40km before finish. That stage was harder than Colombier stage and there was no action between Armstrong, Basso, Ullrich (Armstrong group had 26 riders at finish). Vino attacked after he lost the race the day before. Take attention how domestiques slowly but surely cut the time gaps after the Galibier. Links are here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvZGHs-OVQA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX5ZSef5_JY

P.S. I remember taking vacation to watch this 5 hour stage and I was truly disappointed when nothing happened...

The Colombier stage is better suited to a long-range attack, though. There's not a lot of false flat after the summit.

 

[airstream]

This is the profile... He attacked with 6.8km to go... Which means between km 12 and 13...

Such a profile is quite rough in terms of accuracy up to hundreds of meters. Working on 4% and 8% visually differ a lot.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Such a profile is quite rough in terms of accuracy up to hundreds of meters. Working on 4% and 8% visually differ a lot.

Okay if you want to discuss this further go to the I Love Alberto thread.

 

[guncha]

Classics stages - 1, 3 (2)

Sprinters stages 2, 4, 5, 6, 13, 15, 21 (7)

Medium Mountain Stages - 7, 8, 14 (3)

Pucheurs/Transition - 12, 19 (2)

High Mountain stages - 10, 11, 16, 17 (4)

ITT - P, 9, 19 (3)

I think it's a relatively balanced route.

I would like at least one of the mountain top finishes to be harder.

To me picture is a bit different

High Mountain for GC: 11, 16, 17
Medium Mountain for GC: 7, possibly also 8
Transition stages with mountains and finish atop small climb: 10, 12
Transition stage with mountains but without finish atop small climb: 14
Flat/Hills with atop small climb: 1, 3
Sprinters stages 2, 4, 5, 6, 13, 15, 18, 20
ITT - P, 9, 19

 

[guncha]

The Colombier stage is better suited to a long-range attack, though. There's not a lot of false flat after the summit.

But before Colombier there are no other H.C. and 1st cat. climbs. 3rd cat. Richemond won't change anything.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

But before Colombier there are no other H.C. and 1st cat. climbs. 3rd cat. Richemond won't change anything.

It won't but the Colombier alone is steep enough to drop Wiggins, who doesn't descend with the best of them, either. It's a good stage to put him under pressure for sure. Whether they take that opportunity is another matter....

 

[guncha]

It won't but the Colombier alone is steep enough to drop Wiggins, who doesn't descend with the best of them, either. It's a good stage to put him under pressure for sure. Whether they take that opportunity is another matter....

If Wiggins will struggle on Colombier it will mean he is not top 5 or top 7 contender and will fade later.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I could perhaps agree for the balance... but I still don't like it

It's not balanced, too many itt km far too little credible options for climbers

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

If Wiggins will struggle on Colombier it will mean he is not top 5 or top 7 contender and will fade later.

I disagree. It just means he's not a top 5 climber. He has struggled in the mountains before and got 4th overall. This time the Tour is more TT heavy. You can't just assume he'll fade or crack at a later stage. Look where it got Purito.

If a few guys can put half a minute into Wiggins on the Grand Colombier, things could get interesting. They would have to race it hard, though.